Global Fertilizer Shortage Means Spring Planting Season Disaster In The Northern Hemisphere Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, Nobody is going to be able to save the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere now, and that is really bad news because according to the UN the number of people in the world experiencing acute hunger was already at an all-time high even be...
Global Fertilizer Shortage Means Spring Planting Season Disaster In The Northern Hemisphere Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, Nobody is going to be able to save the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere now, and that is really bad news because according to the UN the number of people in the world experiencing acute hunger was already at an all-time high even before the war began. A historic global food crisis has been escalating for years, and now farmers all over the northern hemisphere either can’t get the nitrogen fertilizer that they desperately need or they are paying much more for it. As a result, global food prices will start rising dramatically once harvest season rolls around, and in many impoverished nations there simply won’t be enough food for everyone. During normal times, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz, but right now it can’t get out of the Persian Gulf thanks to the Iranians. Unfortunately, if that nitrogen fertilizer doesn’t get into the hands of farmers in the northern hemisphere within a certain period of time they will completely miss the application window … The Hormuz Strait carries roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade. If farmers miss the application window, no amount of catch-up planting can recover the loss. The International Grains Council estimates cumulative global wheat and coarse grain output could fall 53 million tons below last season, a shortfall larger than Ukraine’s entire annual grain export volume in a typical year. According to a former co-chair of the White House’s Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, the spring fertilizer application window in the northern hemisphere ends next month … Spring fertilizer application in the Northern Hemisphere runs through June. Parts of Africa are entering the primary planting season now — a critical window for the continent’s most food-insecure populations. A missed window doesn’...
Erik Isakson/DigitalVision via Getty Images The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings by a whopping 23% this year. One of the best quarterly reporting periods in recent memory has resulted in a reasonable market P/E ratio, but not all areas have seen intense upward profit revisions. Today, I’m downgrading the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF ( PAVE ). I’ve had a buy rating on this highly ...
Erik Isakson/DigitalVision via Getty Images The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings by a whopping 23% this year. One of the best quarterly reporting periods in recent memory has resulted in a reasonable market P/E ratio, but not all areas have seen intense upward profit revisions. Today, I’m downgrading the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF ( PAVE ). I’ve had a buy rating on this highly cyclical and growth-sensitive domestic equity ETF since early 2025 . Gains have been strong, and PAVE has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. But I now view the 24x P/E as too much to overcome, while the technicals point to the real risk of a moderate pullback. I’ll note later, however, that seasonality is bullish. PAVE Sharply Beating the S&P 500 YoY StockCharts.com According to the issuer , "PAVE seeks to invest in companies that stand to benefit from a potential increase in infrastructure activity in the United States, including those involved in the production of raw materials, heavy equipment, engineering, and construction. The fund invests in growth and value stocks across a diversified range of market caps." PAVE is a large ETF, now with $13.6 billion in assets under management as of May 8, 2026. That’s up a significant $3.7 billion from the time of my December 2025 analysis . With the fund up 18% since late in the fourth quarter of last year, PAVE’s annual expense ratio is moderate at 47 basis points, while the trailing 12-month dividend yield is low at just 77 basis points, about 0.4 percentage points below that of the S&P 500. Share-price momentum has been very strong lately, earning the product a pristine A ETF Grade in that category by Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system. I am also encouraged to see that its ETF Risk Grade has improved markedly from a D six months ago to a B- today. Its realized volatility levels have held in check, while the Industrials and Materials-heavy allocation hasn’t experienced tremendous drawdowns in recent months...