FactoryTh/iStock via Getty Images Copper prices rose to a three-week high Wednesday after a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran improved risk appetite, easing concerns over supply disruptions and their impact on the global economy. Three-month copper futures ( HG1:COM ) on the London Metal Exchange jumped as much as 3.5% to $12,741/ton, while aluminum ( LMAHDS03:COM ), the base metal most directly...
FactoryTh/iStock via Getty Images Copper prices rose to a three-week high Wednesday after a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran improved risk appetite, easing concerns over supply disruptions and their impact on the global economy. Three-month copper futures ( HG1:COM ) on the London Metal Exchange jumped as much as 3.5% to $12,741/ton, while aluminum ( LMAHDS03:COM ), the base metal most directly affected by supply concerns during the Middle East war, traded in a tight range at ~$3,460/ton. Among potentially relevant stocks: Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) up 6.5%, Southern Copper ( SCCO ) up 8.7%, Ero Copper ( ERO ) up 9.4%, Taseko Mines ( TGB ) up 10.4%, Teck Resources ( TECK ) up 8.1%, Hudbay Minerals ( HBM ) up 11%, BHP ( BHP ) up 5.5%, Rio Tinto ( RIO ) up 4.7%, Vale ( VALE ) up 3.3%. Among aluminum producers, Alcoa ( AA ) down 4.1% and Century Aluminum ( CENX ) down 4.4%, but Kaiser Aluminum ( KALU ) up 4.1% and Constellium ( CSTM ) up 4%. " Relief around shipping routes has been particularly supportive for sentiment," ING analysts said. "Looking ahead, metals prices will be shaped by whether the ceasefire evolves into a more durable agreement, alongside U.S. monetary policy expectations, with Federal Reserve communication, inflation data and real-yield dynamics as key near‑term drivers." However, given the temporary nature of the ceasefire, metals markets will struggle to return to the liquidity-driven rally seen at the start of the year, Shuohe Asset Management analyst Gao Yin told Bloomberg. ETFs: ( CPER ), ( COPX ) More on Freeport-McMoRan and copper Commodities: Oil Falls Below $100 On Optimism Over Iran War Is The War Really Reaching Its End? Assets Bounce Despite Oil Rally - Market Check Freeport-McMoRan: The Drawdown Is A Gift
Nadzeya Haroshka/iStock via Getty Images An International Monetary Fund analysis on Wednesday cautioned that rising military budgets could create economic challenges in the years ahead, even as they provide a short-term boost. The report finds that increased defense outlays tend to support growth initially by lifting demand, investment and activity. Over time, however, these gains are often offset...
Nadzeya Haroshka/iStock via Getty Images An International Monetary Fund analysis on Wednesday cautioned that rising military budgets could create economic challenges in the years ahead, even as they provide a short-term boost. The report finds that increased defense outlays tend to support growth initially by lifting demand, investment and activity. Over time, however, these gains are often offset by higher government borrowing, rising debt levels and weaker fiscal positions. Deficits worsen by about 2.6 percentage points of GDP, and public debt increases by about 7 percentage points within three years of the start of a boom (14 percentage points in wartime). (IMF) IMF economists note that escalating geopolitical tensions and a growing number of conflicts have prompted many countries to reassess security priorities and expand military spending. Nations across Europe, including Germany and France, have stepped up defense budgets in response to the war in Ukraine and pressure from the United States to shoulder more of their own security burden. Using data spanning more than 160 countries since 1946, the IMF identified over 200 periods of sustained defense spending increases. These cycles typically last more than two years, with roughly two-thirds of the additional spending financed through deficits. The fiscal impact is more pronounced during wartime. In such periods, public debt tends to rise sharply while spending on social programs can decline in real terms, highlighting the trade-offs policymakers face when allocating resources. The IMF defines a defense spending surge as a sustained rise in military outlays of at least 1% of gross domestic product based on a two-year average. The findings come at a time of heightened uncertainty in global markets, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts raising concerns about economic growth and fiscal sustainability. More on Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF, iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF, etc. Macro In...
Estimated 2,000 ships, including oil and gas tankers and cruise liners, remain trapped in the Persian Gulf since start of war There will be no “mass exodus” of ships through the strait of Hormuz, shipping analysts say, despite a two-week conditional ceasefire being agreed between the US and Iran with provision for the temporary reopening of the crucial maritime channel. The ceasefire agreement “do...
Estimated 2,000 ships, including oil and gas tankers and cruise liners, remain trapped in the Persian Gulf since start of war There will be no “mass exodus” of ships through the strait of Hormuz, shipping analysts say, despite a two-week conditional ceasefire being agreed between the US and Iran with provision for the temporary reopening of the crucial maritime channel. The ceasefire agreement “doesn’t change the situation in the sense that Iran is still in control”, said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief at the maritime data provider Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “It still requires ships to essentially seek permission, and that’s the key. That means that nothing has changed – no permission, no transit.” Continue reading...
Chilean authorities dismantled a criminal network dedicated to large-scale copper theft, following a multi-agency investigation known as “Operation High Voltage.” The network moved an estimated 817 billion pesos ($917 million) of copper between 2020 and 2025, while fraudulently obtaining more than 58 billion pesos in export-related VAT refunds, according to a police statement. Public Security Unde...
Chilean authorities dismantled a criminal network dedicated to large-scale copper theft, following a multi-agency investigation known as “Operation High Voltage.” The network moved an estimated 817 billion pesos ($917 million) of copper between 2020 and 2025, while fraudulently obtaining more than 58 billion pesos in export-related VAT refunds, according to a police statement. Public Security Undersecretary Andres Jouannet , along with senior police, tax and customs offcials will provide further details at an event in Santiago Wednesday. Read More: Chile Police Seize Copper in International Smuggling Crackdown The crime network shows both the profitability and sophistication of copper theft in a country that is the world’s largest producer of the metal. The group operated across several regions — allegedly stealing copper and trucking it to the northern port city of Iquique. From there, it was shipped in containers to China. Police carried out coordinated raids on 49 properties across seven regions, leading to the arrest of 25 people, among them the alleged leaders of the organization and key operational members. Authorities also seized 187 metric tons of copper, worth about $2.2 million at current prices, 40 vehicles and 11 firearms.
Crystal Adam, President of R&D at Tango Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TNGX) , reported the exercise of 27,000 stock options -- with the underlying common shares immediately sold for approximately $572,000 -- according to an SEC Form 4 filing on April 2, 2026. Transaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($21.20); post-transaction value based on April 7, 2026, market close ($19.80). * 1...
Crystal Adam, President of R&D at Tango Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TNGX) , reported the exercise of 27,000 stock options -- with the underlying common shares immediately sold for approximately $572,000 -- according to an SEC Form 4 filing on April 2, 2026. Transaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($21.20); post-transaction value based on April 7, 2026, market close ($19.80). * 1-year performance calculated using April 7, 2026, as the reference date. Continue reading
anna-esposito/iStock via Getty Images Thesis We believe we are at the equity bubble and at the start of a bear market. In this article, we take a broad view from the anthropological explanation of how market bubbles are formed to the slate of signs we have observed that, in our view, prove we are at the start of a bear market, especially when they are put all together. Similar to the main image of...
anna-esposito/iStock via Getty Images Thesis We believe we are at the equity bubble and at the start of a bear market. In this article, we take a broad view from the anthropological explanation of how market bubbles are formed to the slate of signs we have observed that, in our view, prove we are at the start of a bear market, especially when they are put all together. Similar to the main image of this article, no single part creates a bear, but when put together, they create a bear and then reinforce each other. The article is long, but we feel that it has to be to fully capture the details. This article is about equities, but it has connections to our articles on Treasuries and corporate debt as a multiple-dimension view of the same picture. We urge you to read them fully and carefully because we hope our call can save your portfolio. Anthropological explanation of the market bubble Exuberant expectations - a term that occasionally pops into the minds of long-term financial professionals when the market is on a bull run. It is kind of a psychological warning light that keeps us fighting the crowd and was relevant to our ancestors' survival. So once a signal appears like a strange sound from the bush (or high P/E ratio), we tend to cry wolf (or a bear for that matter). And for the most part, we are wrong. The more time it passes, the more likely people will adjust to a new reality, and the process of cognitive dissonance will start to kick in. We see the warning signs, but start to ignore them to keep up with the group. And, it works. For a while. And the longer it works, our brain adapts to a new benchmark, so it stops acting on clear, multiple signs of a bear. Even when you finally see one, you may start to rationalize that it is just a dog or a really timid bear. In this article, we are going to list the obvious signs of a bear that most investors have learned to ignore through experience. Behavior needed for market bubbles to emerge, in our view. What we also f...
As Artemis II returns from the dark side of the moon, Nasa’s transformations of electromagnetic energy into sound remind us that everything is vibrating – even while the astronauts are listening to Chappell Roan Jaw-dropping dark-siding exploration aside, it’s the mundane details of the Artemis II mission that connect us with the four astronauts slingshotting their way around the moon and back. Th...
As Artemis II returns from the dark side of the moon, Nasa’s transformations of electromagnetic energy into sound remind us that everything is vibrating – even while the astronauts are listening to Chappell Roan Jaw-dropping dark-siding exploration aside, it’s the mundane details of the Artemis II mission that connect us with the four astronauts slingshotting their way around the moon and back. The zero-gravity hair, the playing with the microphone when they’re on a call with the President, and the wake-up music that Nasa pipes into their module every orbital morning: a cookie-cutter selection of feelgood choons from Chappell Roan to CeeLo Green. There are no reports, so far, of Artemis hearing anything like the strange whistling and “outer-space type things” that the dark-siders of the Apollo 10 mission in 1969 documented during the hour that they were out of communication with Earth . Those three men heard an unsettling and unforeseen sound around the other side of the moon that resisted explanation – and inspired conspiracy theories, since the transcript wasn’t made public until 1973. The sound is now known to have been the call-sign of our nearest alien neighbours, the Vum-Jums of planet A4863F. Continue reading...
A New York lawmaker aims to reopen negotiations to expand the state and local tax deduction after US lawmakers raised the cap on the break to $40,000 last year if Congress attempts to pass a second tax bill before the midterm elections. Representative Nick LaLota , a Republican from Long Island, is trying to extend that threshold past five years, when the cap is expected to revert back to $10,000....
A New York lawmaker aims to reopen negotiations to expand the state and local tax deduction after US lawmakers raised the cap on the break to $40,000 last year if Congress attempts to pass a second tax bill before the midterm elections. Representative Nick LaLota , a Republican from Long Island, is trying to extend that threshold past five years, when the cap is expected to revert back to $10,000. He said he wants to make changes to secure more benefits related to the SALT deduction if the GOP’s spending bill involves modifications to the tax code. “I will always fight for my constituents and America and will fight for more SALT” if the tax code is materially revisited, LaLota said. The SALT deduction was a key point of negotiation during the crafting of a must-pass tax bill last year because several House Republicans representing districts in high-tax states like New York, New Jersey and California pushed for raising the cap. The break is especially lucrative in those areas due to high incomes, property values and local taxes. Later this month, Republican leaders in Congress plan to begin work on a partisan fast-track spending bill that can bypass a Senate Democratic filibuster by adhering to special procedures. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he wants to keep the bill narrowly focused on providing multiple years of funding for immigration enforcement and border security, but lawmakers are hankering to add their priorities to the mix. House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith has said that tax provisions could be included. Last year, LaLota was joined by New Yorkers Andrew Garbarino and Mike Lawler , New Jersey Representative Tom Kean and California’s Young Kim , who threatened to upset the slim Republican margin if the SALT cap wasn’t raised. Garbarino, who chairs the SALT caucus, said in a statement that he was “proud” of the progress made on tax relief though he’s now focused on addressing other priorities for his constituents. Lawler, Kim and Kean did no...
photobyphm/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Note : We use option activity to determine “when” to buy or sell—not “what” to buy or sell. The “what” decision is best made through fundamental analysis. Once an investor has decided "what" to buy or sell, I would never act without first reviewing what option activity was saying about its immediate price direction . Microsoft's Headed Higher For The Ne...
photobyphm/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Note : We use option activity to determine “when” to buy or sell—not “what” to buy or sell. The “what” decision is best made through fundamental analysis. Once an investor has decided "what" to buy or sell, I would never act without first reviewing what option activity was saying about its immediate price direction . Microsoft's Headed Higher For The Next Few Months Current option activity in Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) strongly suggests higher prices over the intermediate-term. The intermediate term is from two to five months. If you're bullish on Microsoft for the long-term, now is a good time to add to positions. If you're bearish, you'll probably get a higher selling price if you wait a few months. Let me show you the evidence. While this data is one week old (subscribers get the current data on 100 stocks), the article's conclusion for a strong intermediate-term buy signal in MSFT still stands. The “Puts To Calls” Ratio Marty Zweig introduced the put-to-call ratio more than fifty years ago. He compared purchases of “put” and “call” option contracts to gauge whether investors were bullish or bearish on the market. He observed that when “too many” investors bought calls, prices typically declined. When “too many” bought puts, prices generally increased. This activity functioned as a contrary sentiment indicator. While Zweig focused on contracts, we analyze capital flows, which we believe provides greater insight. We call our ratio the Directional Premium Puts to Calls Ratio. Directional “Puts To Calls” Ratio Of MSFT The graph below measures the puts-to-calls ratio of dollars flowing into directional puts versus directional calls in MSFT. We average the numbers over 20 days to smooth the ratio into a more meaningful intermediate-term indicator. The Red Zone - Green Zone ranking shows extremes by comparing ratios against their historic norms. It's a buy signal when you get extreme bearish expectations (Green Zone) and...
onurdongel Wars leave long economic scars, while rising military spending is forcing governments into increasingly difficult budget choices, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. In a blog analysis , the IMF said conflicts cumulatively reduce economic output by about 7% within five years of their onset, with losses often lasting well beyond the end of fighting. The damage reflects des...
onurdongel Wars leave long economic scars, while rising military spending is forcing governments into increasingly difficult budget choices, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. In a blog analysis , the IMF said conflicts cumulatively reduce economic output by about 7% within five years of their onset, with losses often lasting well beyond the end of fighting. The damage reflects destroyed infrastructure, disrupted trade and investment, and declines in productivity. The economic toll extends beyond directly affected countries. Conflict can spill across borders through trade, migration, and financial channels, weighing on regional and global growth. The IMF also warned that rising military expenditure is adding to macroeconomic pressures at a time when many countries already face constrained fiscal space. Increased defense spending, particularly when financed through borrowing, can widen fiscal deficits and push up public debt. While such spending may provide some short-term support to economic activity, it often comes at the expense of other priorities. Governments may be forced to cut or limit spending on health, education, and infrastructure, potentially undermining long-term growth. The Fund said policymakers face “difficult macroeconomic trade-offs” as they balance security needs with economic stability. It added that rebuilding after conflict requires sustained reforms, strong institutions, and international support to restore confidence and put economies back on a durable growth path. Defense spending around the world was already on the rise, totaling $2.63T in 2025, and the ongoing war on Iran is expected to push that number even higher. Notable defense stocks: Lockheed Martin ( LMT ), RTX ( RTX ), Northrop Grumman ( NOC ), Boeing ( BA ), Honeywell ( HON ), General Dynamics ( GD ), GE Aerospace ( GE ), L3Harris Technologies ( LHX ), TransDigm ( TDG ), and Huntington Ingalls ( HII ). Dear Readers: We recognize that politics often intersect with t...
photobyphm/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Note : We use option activity to determine “when” to buy or sell—not “what” to buy or sell. The “what” decision is best made through fundamental analysis. Once an investor has decided "what" to buy or sell, I would never act without first reviewing what option activity was saying about its immediate price direction . Microsoft's Headed Higher For The Ne...
photobyphm/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Note : We use option activity to determine “when” to buy or sell—not “what” to buy or sell. The “what” decision is best made through fundamental analysis. Once an investor has decided "what" to buy or sell, I would never act without first reviewing what option activity was saying about its immediate price direction . Microsoft's Headed Higher For The Next Few Months Current option activity in Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) strongly suggests higher prices over the intermediate-term. The intermediate term is from two to five months. If you're bullish on Microsoft for the long-term, now is a good time to add to positions. If you're bearish, you'll probably get a higher selling price if you wait a few months. Let me show you the evidence. While this data is one week old (subscribers get the current data on 100 stocks), the article's conclusion for a strong intermediate-term buy signal in MSFT still stands. The “Puts To Calls” Ratio Marty Zweig introduced the put-to-call ratio more than fifty years ago. He compared purchases of “put” and “call” option contracts to gauge whether investors were bullish or bearish on the market. He observed that when “too many” investors bought calls, prices typically declined. When “too many” bought puts, prices generally increased. This activity functioned as a contrary sentiment indicator. While Zweig focused on contracts, we analyze capital flows, which we believe provides greater insight. We call our ratio the Directional Premium Puts to Calls Ratio. Directional “Puts To Calls” Ratio Of MSFT The graph below measures the puts-to-calls ratio of dollars flowing into directional puts versus directional calls in MSFT. We average the numbers over 20 days to smooth the ratio into a more meaningful intermediate-term indicator. The Red Zone - Green Zone ranking shows extremes by comparing ratios against their historic norms. It's a buy signal when you get extreme bearish expectations (Green Zone) and...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I Keep My Bullish Stance On CLS Ahead Of Its Upcoming Earnings Release I've been covering Celestica Inc. ( CLS ) since 2023, mainly rating it as a "Buy", occasionally switching to "Hold" when the price action seemed too stretched to me. CLS turned out to be one of the strongest runners in my coverage history as management kept executing amid the rise of ...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I Keep My Bullish Stance On CLS Ahead Of Its Upcoming Earnings Release I've been covering Celestica Inc. ( CLS ) since 2023, mainly rating it as a "Buy", occasionally switching to "Hold" when the price action seemed too stretched to me. CLS turned out to be one of the strongest runners in my coverage history as management kept executing amid the rise of AI-driven demand for infrastructural products. My most recent update on the stock came out in February 2026, and it was an upgrade to "Buy" because back then, the stock started to look very promising in terms of its valuation, considering the 1.6T/3.2T networking ramps and continuing hyperscaler demand. Now, Celestica is approaching its earnings day again (scheduled for April 27th, 2026), and I think it's very likely to beat the current pessimistic consensus estimates. I believe the management will guide strongly for the whole calendar 2026, hinting at another great year in 2027, so the market will have to adjust its earnings expectations that have gone nowhere since January 2026. So, I remain bullish ahead of the Q1 print. Why Do I Think So? I covered the cause for Celestica's negative price action following the blowout Q4 results in my February article , while also reviewing quarterly earnings in the same piece, so I highly recommend checking it out in case you haven't. Without repeating the same info and discussion, I'd say that the past year has shown us that CLS has become more of a custom ODM solutions provider (versus its position in 2020, for example), hence removing the cyclical assembler vulnerability from its risk profile. At least that's how I view the firm, and that's the reason it deserves structurally higher valuation multiples today versus its historical norms. Before jumping to the updated valuation discussion, let me take a closer look at what's expected for the upcoming quarter and what's been priced in by the market. The management anticipated that the C...
primeimages/iStock via Getty Images Market volatility eased notably on Wednesday morning as investor sentiment improved following signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions and a pullback in energy prices. The CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ), widely viewed as Wall Street’s primary gauge of market fear, fell below the key 20 level for the first time since the recent geopolitical conflict involvin...
primeimages/iStock via Getty Images Market volatility eased notably on Wednesday morning as investor sentiment improved following signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions and a pullback in energy prices. The CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ), widely viewed as Wall Street’s primary gauge of market fear, fell below the key 20 level for the first time since the recent geopolitical conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel kicked off. The index declined to an intraday low of 19.91, marking its lowest reading since February 27 and signaling a shift toward calmer market conditions. The move coincided with a drop in oil prices, which had previously surged amid concerns over potential supply disruptions tied to the conflict. Geopolitical developments contributed to the improved outlook. President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of military strikes on Iran, contingent upon the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that Tehran would agree to a ceasefire, provided that hostilities against the country are halted. Together, these developments helped stabilize markets and reduce near-term uncertainty. Here is a group of ETFs and ETNs to further track market volatility: Short Term Volatility Funds: The iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN ( VXX ) and the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( VIXY ). Medium Term Volatility Funds: The iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN ( VXZ ) and ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF ( VIXM ). Leveraged Volatility Funds: The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( UVXY ), ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( SVXY ), and 2x Long VIX Futures ETF ( UVIX ). More on markets Why this oil rally isn’t crashing stocks—Deutsche Bank breaks it down Ceasefire uncertainty looms large as prediction markets signal a long road to de-escalation Cantor Fitzgerald calls the market pullback a buying opportunity despite Middle East risks From oil ...
Jason Tarry sees salary increase by 21% in year to January, while fewer people are employed at John Lewis and Waitrose stores The boss of the group that owns John Lewis and Waitrose was handed a 21% increase in basic pay last year to £1.2m while the retailer cut 3,300 jobs. Jason Tarry, who became chair of the John Lewis Partnership (JLP) in September 2024, saw his annual salary increase by a fift...
Jason Tarry sees salary increase by 21% in year to January, while fewer people are employed at John Lewis and Waitrose stores The boss of the group that owns John Lewis and Waitrose was handed a 21% increase in basic pay last year to £1.2m while the retailer cut 3,300 jobs. Jason Tarry, who became chair of the John Lewis Partnership (JLP) in September 2024, saw his annual salary increase by a fifth to £1.2m in the year to January, from £990,000. Continue reading...