What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn't? Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Most investors spend their time watching the S&P 500. That’s a mistake, because the credit market is the real “tell.” The bond market has been whispering a warning for weeks now, and credit spreads are now shouting it. As of this writing, the CDX Index, a benchmark measure of credit default sw...
What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn't? Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Most investors spend their time watching the S&P 500. That’s a mistake, because the credit market is the real “tell.” The bond market has been whispering a warning for weeks now, and credit spreads are now shouting it. As of this writing, the CDX Index, a benchmark measure of credit default swap spreads, has climbed to a nine-month high while the S&P 500 sits within 5% of its all-time peak. Over the past 20 years, every time that combination appeared, a bear market followed. Every single time. That’s a track record worth taking seriously, and credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk) . By observing these spreads, investors can gauge risk appetite in financial markets. Such helps investors identify stress points that often precede stock market corrections. The chart shows the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 market index versus the yield spread between Moody’s Baa corporate bond index (investment grade) and the 10-year US Treasury Bond yield. Rising yield spreads consistently coincide with lower annual returns in the financial markets. The reason is that credit is the lifeblood of the economy. Businesses borrow to operate, and consumers borrow to spend. As such, when the cost of that borrowing rises, particularly the premium lenders demand to extend credit to riskier borrowers, it signals that the economy is under stress. That “stress” directly affects forward earnings estimates and increases the likelihood of a valuation repricing. The “Junk to Treasury” spread is the clearest expression of this dynamic. Investors who buy high-yield bonds, the ones with a meani...
Navitas Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NVTS) is making a high-stakes pivot toward AI data centers, a move that could reshape its future. I break down the emotional conflict behind the story: shrinking mobile exposure, rising AI hopes, and why this transition could either become a breakout moment or a brutal test of execution. Stock prices used were the market prices of March 13, 2026. The video was publis...
Navitas Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NVTS) is making a high-stakes pivot toward AI data centers, a move that could reshape its future. I break down the emotional conflict behind the story: shrinking mobile exposure, rising AI hopes, and why this transition could either become a breakout moment or a brutal test of execution. Stock prices used were the market prices of March 13, 2026. The video was published on March 21, 2026. Continue reading
Tickets from Hong Kong to many mainland Chinese destinations connected by cross-border high-speed rail services are nearly sold out for the first two days of the five-day holiday over Easter and the Ching Ming Festival. The mainland cities have become an alternative for travellers, with the escalating war in the Middle East triggering a global oil crisis and significantly disrupting airspace, prom...
Tickets from Hong Kong to many mainland Chinese destinations connected by cross-border high-speed rail services are nearly sold out for the first two days of the five-day holiday over Easter and the Ching Ming Festival. The mainland cities have become an alternative for travellers, with the escalating war in the Middle East triggering a global oil crisis and significantly disrupting airspace, prompting airlines to increase ticket prices and fuel surcharges. Steven Huen Kwok-chuen, executive director of EGL Tours, which specialises in package tours to Japan, said he expected double-digit business growth compared with last year, with limited impact from the war. Advertisement “The top choices are mainland China and Southeast Asia … many are short-haul trips taking the high-speed railway, and we also have two tours to the Yangtze River Three Gorges Dam,” he said on Sunday. “However, long-haul trips to Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, which have layovers in the Middle East, are suspended.” Advertisement As for trips to Japan, there was also notable growth, as many people chose not to visit the country last year following rumours that a megaquake would strike, he said. “The fuel cost rise is not new to Hongkongers. Although they are not happy with paying a few hundred dollars more for flight tickets, they will not cancel a trip because of that,” he said.
Jaw-Dropping TSA Lines Continue To Hobble Major Airports; Trump Confirms ICE On The Way In a post on his TruthSocial feed, President Trump has confirmed that ICE agents will be joining forces with TSA agents as of tomorrow to aid in the safe-keeping of Americans: On Monday, ICE will be going to airports to help our wonderful TSA Agents... ... who have stayed on the job despite the fact that the Ra...
Jaw-Dropping TSA Lines Continue To Hobble Major Airports; Trump Confirms ICE On The Way In a post on his TruthSocial feed, President Trump has confirmed that ICE agents will be joining forces with TSA agents as of tomorrow to aid in the safe-keeping of Americans: On Monday, ICE will be going to airports to help our wonderful TSA Agents... ... who have stayed on the job despite the fact that the Radical Left Democrats, who are only focused on protecting hard line criminals who have entered our Country illegally, are endangering the USA by holding back the money that was long ago agreed to with signed and sealed contracts, and all. But watch, no matter how great a job ICE does, the Lunatics leading the incompetent Dems will be highly critical of their work. THEY WILL DO A FANTASTIC JOB. The great Tom Homan is in charge!!! President DJT Something's got to give... 🚨HOLY CRAP!!! The Atlanta TSA line has now stretched to a stunning 153 minute-wait-time... AT 6AM IN THE MORNING!!!! The line is WRAPPING AROUND BAGGAGE CLAIM!!! THIS IS PURE INSANITY!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/2MluEMjitJ — Matt Van Swol (@mattvanswol) March 22, 2026 This confirmation comes after President Trump initially announced plans yesterday to move Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to airports on Monday to help Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents manage security checkpoints. “If the Radical Left Democrats don’t immediately sign an agreement to let our Country, in particular, our Airports, be FREE and SAFE again, I will move our brilliant and patriotic ICE Agents to the Airports where they will do Security like no one has ever seen before,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on March 21. BREAKING🚨: Chaos at LGA Terminal B this morning! The TSA PreCheck line is so backed up it's wrapping around every room and stretching all the way out to the parking garage. Plan extra time if you're flying out of here! pic.twitter.com/JhFcz80Pes — Officer Lew (@officer_Lew) March 22, 2026 As Jac...
While growth stocks have dominated the last three years, many analysts expect value stocks to stage a comeback in 2026. In fact, value stocks have outperformed the broader market so far this year. But that trend may just be getting started. There are still plenty of great value stocks that could deserve a spot in your portfolio. One value stock, down 68% from its high reached at the end of 2023, l...
While growth stocks have dominated the last three years, many analysts expect value stocks to stage a comeback in 2026. In fact, value stocks have outperformed the broader market so far this year. But that trend may just be getting started. There are still plenty of great value stocks that could deserve a spot in your portfolio. One value stock, down 68% from its high reached at the end of 2023, looks poised for a turnaround this year. Here's why investors should consider Lululemon Athletica (LULU 1.72%). Reaching the turning point Lululemon has faced many challenges over the last couple of years, including rising competition in athleisure wear, the impact of tariffs, and self-inflicted product issues. That led to slowing revenue growth, declining earnings, and the resignation of former CEO Calvin McDonald at the end of last year. Management's 2026 outlook calls for sluggish growth to continue, with revenue climbing just 2% to 4%. What's more, earnings per share (EPS) is expected to fall once again, dropping 8% at the midpoint of management's guidance. But there are some bright spots in the company's results, and the company could be approaching the turning point where earnings start improving once again. The company's international expansion is going well. Sales outside the Americas climbed 21% on a constant-currency basis last year. Comparable sales were up 14%, suggesting its brand is resonating outside of its home market. China Mainland saw particularly strong growth in 2025, which compares favorably with other foreign brands in the market, like Nike. As international sales account for a larger portion of total revenue (currently about 25%), the growth should offset slower results in the Americas. Expand NASDAQ : LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. Today's Change ( -1.72 %) $ -2.85 Current Price $ 162.72 Key Data Points Market Cap $19B Day's Range $ 161.21 - $ 166.58 52wk Range $ 156.64 - $ 348.50 Volume 124K Avg Vol 2.8M Gross Margin 56.54 % Management expects to sho...
Key Points Competitive pressure and tariffs have impacted this company's earnings results lately. It's seeing strong growth in international markets, and it's showing signs of a turnaround in America. The stock trades at a valuation that will reward patient investors while they wait for the rebound. 10 stocks we like better than Lululemon Athletica Inc. › While growth stocks have dominated the las...
Key Points Competitive pressure and tariffs have impacted this company's earnings results lately. It's seeing strong growth in international markets, and it's showing signs of a turnaround in America. The stock trades at a valuation that will reward patient investors while they wait for the rebound. 10 stocks we like better than Lululemon Athletica Inc. › While growth stocks have dominated the last three years, many analysts expect value stocks to stage a comeback in 2026. In fact, value stocks have outperformed the broader market so far this year. But that trend may just be getting started. There are still plenty of great value stocks that could deserve a spot in your portfolio. One value stock, down 68% from its high reached at the end of 2023, looks poised for a turnaround this year. Here's why investors should consider Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU). Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Reaching the turning point Lululemon has faced many challenges over the last couple of years, including rising competition in athleisure wear, the impact of tariffs, and self-inflicted product issues. That led to slowing revenue growth, declining earnings, and the resignation of former CEO Calvin McDonald at the end of last year. Management's 2026 outlook calls for sluggish growth to continue, with revenue climbing just 2% to 4%. What's more, earnings per share (EPS) is expected to fall once again, dropping 8% at the midpoint of management's guidance. But there are some bright spots in the company's results, and the company could be approaching the turning point where earnings start improving once again. The company's international expansion is going well. Sales outside the Americas climbed 21% on a constant-currency basis last year. Comparable sales were up 14%, suggesting its brand is resonatin...
Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Performance assessment Since my last update on Nvidia stock ( NVDA ), the performance of NVDA has been slightly worse than the broader market index: Performance Since HA's Last Article on NVDA (Seeking Alpha, HA's Last Article on NVDA) Thesis I continue to maintain a balanced view on Nvidia: Major customers are investing in their own...
Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Performance assessment Since my last update on Nvidia stock ( NVDA ), the performance of NVDA has been slightly worse than the broader market index: Performance Since HA's Last Article on NVDA (Seeking Alpha, HA's Last Article on NVDA) Thesis I continue to maintain a balanced view on Nvidia: Major customers are investing in their own chips A trillion-dollar demand pipeline directionally indicates continued high revenue growth Valuations are attractive Technicals point toward another 5% correction Major customers are investing in their own chips Nvidia's top hyperscaler customers, such as Alphabet ( GOOGL ) ( GOOG ), Amazon ( AMZN ), and Meta ( META ) are becoming more focused on developing their own, in-house chips in an effort to mitigate reliance on Nvidia. Companies such as Google, Amazon, and Meta are aggressively focused on developing proprietary ASICs as a cost-efficient alternative to chips manufactured by companies like NVIDIA. - Wedbush Securities As this narrative picks up, I expect this to lead to a subsequent deceleration in future-revenue indicators such as remaining performance obligations [RPOs]: RPO YoY (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Interestingly, in the automotive sector, active substitution trends are playing out to a larger degree as key players such as Volkswagen ( VWAGY ) ( VLKAF ) ( VWAPY ) are finding Chinese technologies to be more cost effective alternatives to Nvidia's chips: With advanced tech from local Chinese players, for us, there is no reason to stick [to] Nvidia... - Thomas Ulbrich, CTO of Volkswagen Group, China Notice the very sharp drop-off in automotive revenue growth already in the latest quarter: Automotive revenue YoY (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Now Nvidia's data center customers would probably value chip performance over pricing a lot more than automotive customers. Still, I believe the deceleration in revenue growth in the automotive sector could foreshadow...
Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Performance assessment Since my last update on Nvidia stock ( NVDA ), the performance of NVDA has been slightly worse than the broader market index: Performance Since HA's Last Article on NVDA (Seeking Alpha, HA's Last Article on NVDA) Thesis I continue to maintain a balanced view on Nvidia: Major customers are investing in their own...
Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Performance assessment Since my last update on Nvidia stock ( NVDA ), the performance of NVDA has been slightly worse than the broader market index: Performance Since HA's Last Article on NVDA (Seeking Alpha, HA's Last Article on NVDA) Thesis I continue to maintain a balanced view on Nvidia: Major customers are investing in their own chips A trillion-dollar demand pipeline directionally indicates continued high revenue growth Valuations are attractive Technicals point toward another 5% correction Major customers are investing in their own chips Nvidia's top hyperscaler customers, such as Alphabet ( GOOGL ) ( GOOG ), Amazon ( AMZN ), and Meta ( META ) are becoming more focused on developing their own, in-house chips in an effort to mitigate reliance on Nvidia. Companies such as Google, Amazon, and Meta are aggressively focused on developing proprietary ASICs as a cost-efficient alternative to chips manufactured by companies like NVIDIA. - Wedbush Securities As this narrative picks up, I expect this to lead to a subsequent deceleration in future-revenue indicators such as remaining performance obligations [RPOs]: RPO YoY (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Interestingly, in the automotive sector, active substitution trends are playing out to a larger degree as key players such as Volkswagen ( VWAGY ) ( VLKAF ) ( VWAPY ) are finding Chinese technologies to be more cost effective alternatives to Nvidia's chips: With advanced tech from local Chinese players, for us, there is no reason to stick [to] Nvidia... - Thomas Ulbrich, CTO of Volkswagen Group, China Notice the very sharp drop-off in automotive revenue growth already in the latest quarter: Automotive revenue YoY (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Now Nvidia's data center customers would probably value chip performance over pricing a lot more than automotive customers. Still, I believe the deceleration in revenue growth in the automotive sector could foreshadow...
More than 160 people have been injured in Iranian strikes on southern Israel, emergency services have said. Ballistic missiles hit the towns of Arad and Dimona, which are close to a nuclear facility, on Saturday evening. Iranian state TV earlier said the strikes were in response to an attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. The BBC's Sebastian Usher reports from Dimona in southern Israel. Read m...
More than 160 people have been injured in Iranian strikes on southern Israel, emergency services have said. Ballistic missiles hit the towns of Arad and Dimona, which are close to a nuclear facility, on Saturday evening. Iranian state TV earlier said the strikes were in response to an attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. The BBC's Sebastian Usher reports from Dimona in southern Israel. Read more on this story.
Key Points I began saving for retirement when I was 20 -- giving me an early start on my goals. These early contributions will remain invested for several decades before I have to use them. This means I can save less each month and still reach my retirement goal. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › Mistakes are a natural part of retirement planning. Maybe you save...
Key Points I began saving for retirement when I was 20 -- giving me an early start on my goals. These early contributions will remain invested for several decades before I have to use them. This means I can save less each month and still reach my retirement goal. The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook › Mistakes are a natural part of retirement planning. Maybe you save in the wrong type of account and miss key tax advantages, or you forget to claim your 401(k) match, forcing you to save more on your own. Those mistakes are frustrating, but they're often not disastrous. You can usually make up for them with a few careful choices. There's one thing in particular that I did years ago that more than makes up for some of the smaller retirement planning mistakes I've made along the way. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » Starting early makes reaching your savings goals much easier I began saving for retirement at 20, and while I wasn't contributing a ton of money at that time, those earliest contributions will likely prove to be some of my most valuable. They'll remain invested the longest, which means they'll probably appreciate the most over time. It might not seem like a few years will make that much difference, but it matters more than you'd think. Consider $1,000 invested for 40 years with an 8% average annual return. It would be worth about $21,725. After being invested for 41 years, that $1,000 investment would be worth about $23,462 -- over $1,700 more. Obviously, if you set aside more money, your retirement savings will grow even faster. You'll usually have to invest far less of your own money to retire comfortably when you start early than you would if you'd waited until later in life. Say you wanted to retire with $1 million in savings. If you earned ...
In this article AAPL AMZN SPOT Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT The Spotify music app is seen on a phone in New York City on June 4, 2024. Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images Streaming music apps have been nudging users into the artificial intelligence era with a limited track record of success. But AI-based recommendation tools from Apple, Amazon and pure-play streaming company Spot...
In this article AAPL AMZN SPOT Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT The Spotify music app is seen on a phone in New York City on June 4, 2024. Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images Streaming music apps have been nudging users into the artificial intelligence era with a limited track record of success. But AI-based recommendation tools from Apple, Amazon and pure-play streaming company Spotify are moving ahead, with Spotify's latest approach to the future of personal music discovery leaning into the AI prompt in multiple formats. Experts say these tech investments may be critical to Spotify's ability to build a moat around its business as the core input, music, becomes commoditized across the streaming apps. A new ChatGPT integration rolled out recently by Spotify allows users to connect their accounts directly to OpenAI's generative AI chatbot. The launch is good for OpenAI in its broader effort to turn ChatGPT into a platform for third-party apps that function inside conversations. For Spotify, it's a bet that personalized music and podcast recommendations will be improved through the now-familiar format of chatting with an AI and letting it know what you want. Spotify users can ask for songs, artists, albums, playlists or podcast episodes by mood, genre or topic. Results surface inside ChatGPT and open in the Spotify app for playback. Users can interact with the recommendation, and offer specificity beyond what is possible with a classic "like/dislike" feedback option. According to a Spotify spokesperson, the prompts are "an opportunity to uncover new tracks or revisit old favorites, or extend a ChatGPT conversation with a soundtrack that fits the moment." Spotify said the integration is opt-in and that users can disconnect at any time. It also said it will not share music or podcast content with OpenAI for training purposes — addressing industry concerns around AI and copyrighted material. Spotify also recently rolled out its Prompted Playlist feature ins...
Brighton and Liverpool both went agonisingly close to snatching victory late on as they provided a tense finish to their goalless stalemate, but both sides had to settle for a draw that edges Liverpool slightly further away from the drop zone. In a game that was low on final-third quality and one where the highlights reel would probably begin in the 89th minute, the closest both sides came to winn...
Brighton and Liverpool both went agonisingly close to snatching victory late on as they provided a tense finish to their goalless stalemate, but both sides had to settle for a draw that edges Liverpool slightly further away from the drop zone. In a game that was low on final-third quality and one where the highlights reel would probably begin in the 89th minute, the closest both sides came to winning it came in the final moments of the contest. Firstly, as the clock approached 90, the Liverpool goalkeeper Jennifer Falk did very well to touch Manuela Vanegas’s late header on to the crossbar as the home thought they might take all the points. At the other end a quick Liverpool throw-in, Aurélie Csillag’s low shot was saved by Chiamaka Nnadozie and trickled narrowly wide. From the resulting corner, Maelys Mpomé cleared the ball off the line to save the hosts. The result extended Liverpool’s winless run on the road to 10 away WSL matches – having not won an away WSL contest since a trip to Brighton last season – but their general upturn in form continued as they gained a valuable point, having won three of their previous five league games to move away from the foot of the table. Brighton have failed to win any of their past eight WSL games against Liverpool, who are now five points clear of the bottom side Leicester, who face Aston Villa later on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Tottenham defender Clare Hunt is to undergo surgery on her right knee, the club have confirmed, after she suffered the injury during the Women’s Asian Cup while representing Australia, who finished as the runners-up. It is not yet been disclosed what type of knee injury the 27-year-old has suffered.
aluxum/iStock via Getty Images Local-currency bonds in emerging markets have quickly turned from a favored trade into a source of losses as global risk sentiment deteriorates, Bloomberg News reported Sunday. After benefiting earlier this year from a weaker dollar and easing inflation, the asset class has dropped more than 4.5% since the Iran conflict began, underperforming dollar-denominated EM de...
aluxum/iStock via Getty Images Local-currency bonds in emerging markets have quickly turned from a favored trade into a source of losses as global risk sentiment deteriorates, Bloomberg News reported Sunday. After benefiting earlier this year from a weaker dollar and easing inflation, the asset class has dropped more than 4.5% since the Iran conflict began, underperforming dollar-denominated EM debt. Currency weakness has compounded the decline, with far fewer emerging-market currencies now gaining against the dollar. Rising oil and gas prices are a key driver, pushing inflation expectations higher and forcing central banks to reconsider rate cuts. In some cases, policymakers are signaling that rates may need to stay elevated or even rise, adding pressure to local debt markets. Losses have been particularly steep in countries like South Africa and Hungary, where currencies have weakened sharply. Other markets, including Mexico and Indonesia, have yet to stabilize. Investors are adjusting strategies in response. Some are reducing exposure to more volatile currencies and shifting toward regions seen as more resilient, particularly parts of Asia where central banks may be better positioned to manage inflation and currency pressures. Others are favoring interest-rate trades over currency bets, seeking more defensive positioning as uncertainty rises. Not all markets have struggled equally. In Colombia, where expectations for tighter policy were already priced in, local bonds have held up better than peers. Overall, the shift highlights how quickly investor sentiment can reverse in emerging markets when global conditions change. More on Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF, Vanguard Emerging Markets Govt Bd Idx ETF, etc. VWOB: Commodity Strength Supports EM Credit EMB: Solid Emerging Market Bond ETF, But Stronger, Cheaper Choices In The Market EMHY: Good High-Yield Bond ETF, But Expenses Are Too High To Buy Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Invesco Emerging Markets S...
Iran has said it will “irreversibly destroy” essential infrastructure across the Middle East if the US attacks its energy sites, hours after Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” the country’s power plants if the strait of Hormuz was not opened within two days. As Iranian missiles struck two southern Israeli cities overnight, injuring dozens and shattering apartment buildings, the developments s...
Iran has said it will “irreversibly destroy” essential infrastructure across the Middle East if the US attacks its energy sites, hours after Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” the country’s power plants if the strait of Hormuz was not opened within two days. As Iranian missiles struck two southern Israeli cities overnight, injuring dozens and shattering apartment buildings, the developments signalled a dangerous potential escalation of the war in the Middle East, which is now in its fourth week. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, said on Sunday that “vital infrastructure as well as energy and oil infrastructure” across the region would become “legitimate targets” as soon as his country’s own was attacked. A statement on state media cited an Iranian military spokesperson as saying any strike on Iran’s energy facilities would prompt attacks on US and Israeli energy and assets across the region, specifically information technology and desalination facilities. View image in fullscreen A billboard featuring a portrait of the late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images On Saturday, the US president gave Iran 48 hours – until shortly before midnight GMT on Monday – to open the strait of Hormuz, a vital pathway for the oil flows, or the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants “starting with the biggest one first”. Ali Mousavi, Iran’s representative to the International Maritime Organisation, said on Sunday the strait was open to all shipping except vessels linked to “Iran’s enemies”, with passage possible by coordinating security arrangements with Tehran. Iranian attacks have effectively closed the narrow strait, which carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, causing the world’s worst oil crisis since the 1970s and sending European gas prices surging as much as 35% last week. More than 2,000 people have been killed since 28 February when the US and I...
gorodenkoff Super Micro Computer's ( SMCI ) 33% single-day collapse left a trail of destruction across its options chain — but the data tells a more nuanced story than it might first appear. Super Micro Computer shares closed at $20.53 on Friday, down 33% on the session, after overnight news that individuals linked to the company, including a co-founder, were charged with assisting in the smugglin...
gorodenkoff Super Micro Computer's ( SMCI ) 33% single-day collapse left a trail of destruction across its options chain — but the data tells a more nuanced story than it might first appear. Super Micro Computer shares closed at $20.53 on Friday, down 33% on the session, after overnight news that individuals linked to the company, including a co-founder, were charged with assisting in the smuggling of at least $2.5B worth of AI technology to China. The options chain for the March 27 expiration lays bare the carnage — but reading it carefully reveals two very distinct groups of traders: those who were positioned before the news broke, and those who scrambled to react once it had. The bulls who never saw it coming The most telling evidence of pre-existing bullish positioning sits in the call side's open interest figures. The $31 call carried 21,470 contracts in open interest heading into Friday, while the $33 call had 23,853 — both strikes now sitting so far above the stock price as to be essentially worthless. These were not positions built on Friday. They represent accumulated bullish conviction established over previous sessions, by traders who had no reason to expect what was coming. Friday's session wiped them out almost entirely — the $22 call lost 89% of its value, the $23 call 92%, the $24 call 94%. The puts that look prescient but probably aren't At first glance, the put side appears to tell a more concerning story. The $20 put saw 63,531 contracts traded on Friday, with percentage gains running into four figures across multiple strikes — the $22.50 put gained 5,140%, the $23 put 5,900%. Numbers like that can raise uncomfortable questions about who knew what and when. But a closer look at the data offers a more straightforward explanation. The $20 put shows 63,531 contracts traded against open interest of only 12,340 — a ratio suggesting the overwhelming majority of that volume was opened on Friday itself, after the charges were already public knowledge. This...
imagedepotpro/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Hidden Opportunities The financial markets never run out of reasons to stay worried. Through 2025, we have been bombarded with headlines about AI-driven layoffs, the SaaS-pocalypse, evolving trade uncertainties between major economies, and inflation, interest rates, and oil prices. The rapid growth of AI models has created a lot of excitement ...
imagedepotpro/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Hidden Opportunities The financial markets never run out of reasons to stay worried. Through 2025, we have been bombarded with headlines about AI-driven layoffs, the SaaS-pocalypse, evolving trade uncertainties between major economies, and inflation, interest rates, and oil prices. The rapid growth of AI models has created a lot of excitement about productivity, but it has also created anxiety about disruption across entire industries. It is not that uncommon to hear the words “AI will eliminate this job.” Despite these concerns taking center stage, something has been quietly happening in the background that deeply benefits income investors. According to a recent analysis by Capital Group, dividend payments (from ~1,600 global companies studied) rose 7% YoY to a record $2.1 trillion. This demonstrates the resilience of corporate cash flows through a rapidly transforming economic environment. The biggest drivers for dividend growth were tech, finance, telecom, infrastructure, real estate, industrials, and pharma, as these companies grew earnings and shared those profits with shareholders. Capital Group For income-focused investors, this highlights an important truth: market narratives may change every few months, and the media will switch to focus on more entertaining topics. These don’t affect the underlying ability of strong businesses to produce cash and pay dividends. And looking ahead to 2026, the outlook remains constructive. Capital Group expects a 5.7% YoY growth to $2.2 trillion, as a result of strengthened balance sheets, improved operational efficiency, and potentially lower interest rates. Today, we will highlight two investments that exemplify the stability of cash flows. Pick #1: VZ – Yield 5.7% Verizon Communications Inc. ( VZ ) is the world’s largest telecom company, with $138.2 billion in total operating revenues in 2025 and 146.7 million total wireless retail connections. The company maintains a...