Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to another installment of our BDC Market Weekly Review, where we discuss market activity in the Business Development Company [BDC] sector from both the bottom-up, highlighting individual news and events, as well as the top-down, providing an overview of the broader market. We also try to add some historical context as well as relevant themes that look ...
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to another installment of our BDC Market Weekly Review, where we discuss market activity in the Business Development Company [BDC] sector from both the bottom-up, highlighting individual news and events, as well as the top-down, providing an overview of the broader market. We also try to add some historical context as well as relevant themes that look to be driving the market or that investors ought to be mindful of. This update covers the period through the second week of May. Market Action BDCs were down on the week, underperforming the broader income market. Systematic Income Interestingly, the sector's rally has stalled somewhat, as illustrated below, despite a pickup in broader market risk sentiment. Systematic Income A number of BDCs remain close to their 1-year lows, such as PSEC, OTF, and TSLX. Systematic Income We have processed about a third of BDC earnings in our coverage. So far, the results are not as bad as many feared. While NAVs are down as expected, under pressure from wider public credit spreads in Q1, particularly in the software sector, total NAV returns, on average, are not far off zero, as shown below. The median Q1 total NAV return so far is -0.2%, hardly the evidence of a broad-based apocalyptic panic witnessed in BDC price moves over the last 6 months. Systematic Income Certainly, non-accruals are somewhat higher across the sector, so there are instances of idiosyncratic stress in portfolios. However, levels of distress are within historic ranges, and hence, not yet indicative of unusually difficult times for private credit borrowers. Market Themes OCSL provided some interesting information about their software portfolio, which likely has a lot of carryover to the broader BDC sector. OCSL Software PIK as % of total investment income is 0.9%, in contrast to 5% for the broader portfolio. Software ARR loan allocation on fair value is 0.8% - not clear if this is relative to the overall portfolio or t...
Former Liverpool and Madrid midfielder starts on 1 July Alonso feels ‘immense pride to be manager of great club’ Chelsea have confirmed the appointment of Xabi Alonso as their new manager. The Spaniard has signed a four-year deal and will start work in pre season. He becomes the sixth permanent manager of the BlueCo era. The former Real Madrid head coach will take charge of the Blues from 1 July i...
Former Liverpool and Madrid midfielder starts on 1 July Alonso feels ‘immense pride to be manager of great club’ Chelsea have confirmed the appointment of Xabi Alonso as their new manager. The Spaniard has signed a four-year deal and will start work in pre season. He becomes the sixth permanent manager of the BlueCo era. The former Real Madrid head coach will take charge of the Blues from 1 July in what is his first managerial role in the Premier League. Callum McFarlane has been in interim charge since the sacking of Liam Rosenior last month and was on the touchline for Chelsea’s FA Cup final loss to Manchester City on Saturday. Continue reading...
Lisa Nandy says no candidate has launched a challenge to Keir Starmer, despite ‘feverish speculation’ around Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting Kemi Badenoch has said Tommy Robinson is “free to say” his supporters should join Tories The leader of the Conservative party was asked by Trevor Phillips on Sky News about whether she was “glad” the former English Defence League leader had urged his followers...
Lisa Nandy says no candidate has launched a challenge to Keir Starmer, despite ‘feverish speculation’ around Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting Kemi Badenoch has said Tommy Robinson is “free to say” his supporters should join Tories The leader of the Conservative party was asked by Trevor Phillips on Sky News about whether she was “glad” the former English Defence League leader had urged his followers to join a political party, listing the Conservatives as one option. Continue reading...
US President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing with a delegation of leading American tech executives should not be read as a throwback to transactional diplomacy. It points to something more consequential. After years of rhetoric about economic separation, the reality is becoming harder to ignore: the United States and China are not decoupling. They are learning how to compete while remaining deeply...
US President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing with a delegation of leading American tech executives should not be read as a throwback to transactional diplomacy. It points to something more consequential. After years of rhetoric about economic separation, the reality is becoming harder to ignore: the United States and China are not decoupling. They are learning how to compete while remaining deeply entangled. For much of the past decade, Washington has framed its China policy around technological...
We-Ge/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images When I first wrote about Crocs ( CROX ), I was quite a big fan of the business. Strong organic growth, attractive valuation, and a very substantial buyback program all pointed to meaningful upside potential. But this was back in 2022, and since then things have changed, and I have become much more cautious. The firm's fundamentals deteriorated, and sales ar...
We-Ge/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images When I first wrote about Crocs ( CROX ), I was quite a big fan of the business. Strong organic growth, attractive valuation, and a very substantial buyback program all pointed to meaningful upside potential. But this was back in 2022, and since then things have changed, and I have become much more cautious. The firm's fundamentals deteriorated, and sales are now declining. The macroeconomic environment became much more challenging, driven by elevated energy prices, poor consumer sentiment, and high tariffs. While the valuation and the share buyback program are still attractive, I do not think that they are enough to justify buying the stock. I already raised my concerns about these issues in my latest writing , when I downgraded the firm from buy to hold, but now that the Q1 results are out, it is time to have a fresh look and see why my concerns are still valid. Sales Let us start with the sales figures. In the most recent quarter, CROX's revenue declined by 1.7%. This is not the whole picture, however. As a significant portion of CROX's sales are coming from the international markets, the firm benefitted materially from the FX tailwinds. In fact, if we look at the sales decline on a constant currency basis, it is as much as 4% compared to the prior year. Further, it is also concerning that the demand for both brands - Crocs and HEYDUDE - are falling. To put this into perspective, unit sales were down as much as 7.2%, which was partially offset by higher average selling price - 3.2%, and the positive impacts of FX - 2.7%. In my view, a 7% drop in volume is significant and a strong signal that the interest in the brand's products is weakening. Q1 results (Crocs) When it comes to the development of sales by channel, we can see that DTC sales increased, while wholesale decreased, for both brands. While this alone could be a good sign, it actually had a substantial negative effect on the bottom line. SG&A costs were $14.3 millio...
Douglas Rissing/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Investment Thesis Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) delivered strong financial results for the first quarter, beating market expectations in terms of revenue and margins. The company is one of the most interesting in the industry based on the current geopolitical situation and high oil prices, as it owns an oil refinery. Owning such an asset makes it easier...
Douglas Rissing/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Investment Thesis Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) delivered strong financial results for the first quarter, beating market expectations in terms of revenue and margins. The company is one of the most interesting in the industry based on the current geopolitical situation and high oil prices, as it owns an oil refinery. Owning such an asset makes it easier to weather a potential fuel crisis by offsetting rising jet fuel prices. Delta is one of the best companies in terms of financial performance growth and business profitability. The business's revenue is well diversified, unlike many competitors, and the debt burden is one of the lowest in the sector. At the same time, the shares continue to trade at a discount to peers, which reach 40-60%. This is the fourth article in a row that I have recommended the stock for purchase, and after the last three recommendations, the stock has consistently increased in price. I maintain a Buy rating with a target price of $83 and a growth potential of 18.5% to the current price ($70.2 at the time of writing). Core Business Remains Strong Despite Accounting Loss I recommend reading my first three articles about Delta Air Lines, among other things. There, in addition to financial analysis of the reports, I also deeply analyzed the company's business model, described its development strategy, the strengths and weaknesses of this strategy, and the key growth drivers and risks inherent in the company. This will help you gain a deeper understanding of the business and better understand the reasons for the company's current financial situation. And now I will turn to the analysis of the financial situation of the company and the recent report. Seeking Alpha The company's Q1 GAAP revenue increased by 13% yoy to $15.854 billion, with a consensus forecast of $14.87 billion , which is 6.62% lower than the actual result. Adjusted revenue (excluding income from refineries and others not directly relate...
信息量大 随着13F文件出炉，巨佬们最新动向来了！ 李录管理的喜马拉雅资本今年一季度末美股持仓总市值32亿美元，较上季度35.7亿美元小幅下滑。 最新的持仓披露显示，喜马拉雅资一季度持有14只标的，相较于去年末的9只，增加5只。 李录一季度新建仓5只标的：腾讯音乐、标普全球、HR布洛克服务、穆迪和MSCI，涵盖互联网音乐、金融服务与指数机构。 一季度李录继续加仓美国鞋服制造龙头Crocs；大幅减仓美国银行，持仓占比由16.08%骤降至4.57%，从上季度第二大重仓滑落至第六位。 从最新持仓看，谷歌依旧为头号重仓股，谷歌A与谷歌C合计持仓占比超44%。 截至今年一季度末，喜马拉雅资本持仓股分别为：谷歌A、谷歌C、拼多多、伯克希尔B、华美、美国银行、西方石油、Crocs、腾讯音乐、标普全球、HR布洛克服务、穆迪、苹果和MSCI。 (本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议） 今年4月，喜马拉雅资本首次发布李录在北大光华管理学院价值投资课程十周年庆典上的主旨演讲《全球价值投资与时代》，演讲时间在2024年12月7日，以下是演讲内容的精华总结： 李录再次把“价值投资”这个看似老生常谈的话题，讲出了新的现实感。 过去几年，全球市场剧烈震荡：AI狂潮、美股新高、地缘冲突、利率周期反复切换。很多人越来越沉迷于预测宏观、押注趋势、寻找“下一个风口”。 但李录在这场演讲里反复强调的一件事却很简单：真正的价值投资，首先是一种“接受现实”的能力。 他引用了一句贯穿整个价值投资体系的话：Take the world the way it is, not what we wish to be.接受世界本来的样子，而不是我们希望它成为的样子。 这句话背后，其实串联起了从本杰明·格雷厄姆、沃伦·巴菲特到查理·芒格一整套价值投资思想的核心。 李录认为，宏观环境永远是客观存在的。 经济周期会波动，货币政策会变化，战争、技术革命、泡沫与恐慌都会反复出现。没有任何投资人能够真正控制宏观，也没有人能长期精准预测世界。 而很多投资失败，恰恰来自于“希望世界按自己的想法运行”。 有人总想预测利率拐点，有人总想猜测下一轮政策刺激，有人不断押注宏大叙事。但价值投资者真正能有所作为的地方，从来不是宏观，而是微观，也就是具体公司。 李录说，价值投资人的基本态度是：宏观环境只能接受，微观层面才可以有所作为。 这...
Former Liverpool midfielder Xabi Alonso becomes the new Chelsea manager on a four‑year contract - a day after their FA Cup final defeat to Manchester City.
Former Liverpool midfielder Xabi Alonso becomes the new Chelsea manager on a four‑year contract - a day after their FA Cup final defeat to Manchester City.
Shares of liquified natural gas (LNG) company Venture Global (NYSE: VG) soared by 24.3% this week. This week's move comes in response to an excellent set of first-quarter earnings released on Tuesday, and the announcement of separate five-year LNG supply deals with TotalEnergies and Vitol. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait o...
Shares of liquified natural gas (LNG) company Venture Global (NYSE: VG) soared by 24.3% this week. This week's move comes in response to an excellent set of first-quarter earnings released on Tuesday, and the announcement of separate five-year LNG supply deals with TotalEnergies and Vitol. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure is positively affecting companies that produce and transport LNG in the West, with Venture Global being a prime example. The company is benefiting from higher LNG prices in its uncontracted LNG streams due to the lack of supply through the Strait, and it's also able to sign long-term contracts because energy companies need to secure long-term LNG supplies. Continue reading
bauwimauwi/iStock via Getty Images Coca-Cola ( KO ) has established itself as far more than the classic soft drink business that the world knows and loves, and its Q1 2026 earnings are proof of that fact. While there were some exciting nuggets in that report about the company's traditional soft drink offerings, such as the 13% YoY growth in sales of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, what caught my eye the mos...
bauwimauwi/iStock via Getty Images Coca-Cola ( KO ) has established itself as far more than the classic soft drink business that the world knows and loves, and its Q1 2026 earnings are proof of that fact. While there were some exciting nuggets in that report about the company's traditional soft drink offerings, such as the 13% YoY growth in sales of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, what caught my eye the most was the success that the company has found beyond its traditional soft drink offerings. These results show me that the confidence exhibited by management appears to be on track. Newly appointed CEO Henrique Braun exhibited that confidence during the earnings call when he said: Enabled by our all-weather strategy, we’re on track to deliver on our updated 2026 guidance. Management believes that the company's diversified product portfolio will allow it to thrive regardless of whatever economic conditions may emerge. Fuze Tea Has Rapidly Become a Growth Engine for Coca-Cola Aggressive expansion into the tea market is starting to pay dividends for the company. Its flagship tea brand, Fuze Tea , has gone from being a portfolio sideshow to one of the most important growth pillars for the whole brand. One of the most encouraging things about Coca-Cola's continued investment in the tea market is the fact that the tea market is exploding globally all at once. IMARC reports that the global tea market is expected to grow at a healthy rate across the globe over the next several years: Tea… is currently represented as the most consumed beverage in the world… The global tea market reached a value of USD 26.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4%–6.5% through 2033–2034. The wide availability of different flavors, as well as improved consumer awareness of the health benefits of tea, has helped to fuel this growth. Fuze Tea has been an extremely effective way for Coca-Cola to tap into the ready-to-drink (RTD) market. That market has exploded, particularly in internatio...
cagkansayin/iStock via Getty Images Executive Summary For a lot of the week equity markets have shown incredible strength as they continue to hold their ground against rising interest rates in Treasuries, increasing oil prices, and an increase in inflation concerns. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are trading at all time highs due to very good earnings reports from big cap companies with growth potenti...
cagkansayin/iStock via Getty Images Executive Summary For a lot of the week equity markets have shown incredible strength as they continue to hold their ground against rising interest rates in Treasuries, increasing oil prices, and an increase in inflation concerns. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are trading at all time highs due to very good earnings reports from big cap companies with growth potential, artificial intelligence (AI) optimism, and strong demand for large capitalization stocks. However, that strength can create a huge problem with regard to pricing. U.S. Treasury Yields climbed back into the 4.5% – 4.6% level on the 10 year Treasury Yield and above 5% for the 30 year Treasury Yield . That is significant because longer term U.S. Treasury Yields lower the present value of future cash flows. More importantly, many of today's stock valuations rely heavily on projected cash flows in years to come. Therefore, when U.S. Treasury yields rise, the equity risk premium can compress unless earnings yields rise as well. In practice, that often means lower valuation multiples, especially for long-duration growth stocks. When the premium goes down, if the multiple remains high, then there is less room for error before you experience a pullback in your stock investments. In addition, although the Trump Xi meeting was productive regarding certain issues, the two leaders were unable to make significant progress in regard to many issues such as Taiwan, rare earths, semiconductors and the Iran/Hormuz issue. Therefore, the political risks associated with these areas continue to exist and add to investor uncertainty. In addition, with oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, inflationary pressures remain alive and well. Therefore, operationally I am reducing my equity allocation in my flexible portfolios from 100% to 75%. In particular, I am selling some of my exposure to the semiconductor and memory sectors due to their extreme volatility. However, I am retaining my exposures to...