Equities are at risk of a significant pullback as the global bond selloff threatens to derail the artificial intelligence-driven rally, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. If the bond market becomes more volatile and long-term interest rates keep rising, “we would expect the first meaningful correction in equity prices since markets bottomed at the end of March,” the team led by Mike Wilson w...
Equities are at risk of a significant pullback as the global bond selloff threatens to derail the artificial intelligence-driven rally, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. If the bond market becomes more volatile and long-term interest rates keep rising, “we would expect the first meaningful correction in equity prices since markets bottomed at the end of March,” the team led by Mike Wilson wrote in a note. The S&P 500 retreated from an all-time high late last week, with equity-index futures signaling US stocks are set to extend their decline on Monday. Inflation fears stemming from prolonged elevated energy prices due to the Iran war have pushed down Treasuries across the curve, with the 30-year yield rising to the highest in almost three years. Yields in Japan also surged to the highest levels in several decades. The jump in Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish tone reflect surging oil prices along with a strong economy, Wilson said. Bond markets need a lasting resolution to the Iran conflict before rates retreat, he added. Still, the strategists stayed with their longer-term bullish call for equities. They raised their 12-month target for the US benchmark to 8,300 last week on the back of the strongest earnings growth in more than two decades, outside of recoveries from major shocks. They highlighted that investors have particularly underestimated the extent to which strong profit growth went beyond AI beneficiaries, adding that the appetite to add risk to areas that could benefit from a broadening in earnings growth remained limited. “While a widespread earnings recovery is gaining momentum, market participants are generally not positioned for it,” Wilson said. “The key variables to watch that should accelerate this broadening trade are oil prices and rates coming off recent highs.”
Dmitry Vinogradov Stock index futures fell Monday as traders awaited Nvidia ( NVDA ) and retail earnings reports slated to come later in the week. Nasdaq 100 futures ( US100:IND ) dropped -0.43%. S&P 500 futures ( SPX ) slipped -0.32%, and Dow futures ( INDU ) declined -0.62%. Nvidia and Target ( TGT ) will report results on Wednesday, with retailer Walmart ( WMT ) following on Thursday. Meanwhile...
Dmitry Vinogradov Stock index futures fell Monday as traders awaited Nvidia ( NVDA ) and retail earnings reports slated to come later in the week. Nasdaq 100 futures ( US100:IND ) dropped -0.43%. S&P 500 futures ( SPX ) slipped -0.32%, and Dow futures ( INDU ) declined -0.62%. Nvidia and Target ( TGT ) will report results on Wednesday, with retailer Walmart ( WMT ) following on Thursday. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran on Sunday, saying it had to move quickly towards a peace deal. U.S. Treasury yields edged higher across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield ( US2Y ) rose 1.7 basis points to 4.09%, while the 10-year yield ( US10Y ) ticked up 0.7 basis points to 4.60%. The 30-year yield ( US30Y ) added 1 basis point to 5.13%. Top gainers in premarket trading included Agilent Technologies ( A ) +18.89%, Dominion Energy ( D ) +11.58%, and Aflac ( AFL ) +8.05%. Decliners included Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN ) -11.21%, J. M. Smucker ( SJM ) -9.74%, and Verisk Analytics ( VRSK ) -6.02%. More on markets S&P 500: The Topping Process Treasury Yields Are Testing The AI Equity Rally S&P 500 Snapshot: 7-Week Win Streak Survives Friday Slump Oil surge, bond selloff rattle markets as Iran standoff drags on 3 things to look out for on Monday
As inflation stays strong, many consumer-facing companies have been struggling to grow, and the market is pricing worries about the future into many stocks. Global-e Online (NASDAQ: GLBE) isn't a consumer-facing company, but it provides cross-border e-commerce services for a growing list of high-profile retailers, and its stock has been dropping. Down 30% this year, is it finally a buy? Image sour...
As inflation stays strong, many consumer-facing companies have been struggling to grow, and the market is pricing worries about the future into many stocks. Global-e Online (NASDAQ: GLBE) isn't a consumer-facing company, but it provides cross-border e-commerce services for a growing list of high-profile retailers, and its stock has been dropping. Down 30% this year, is it finally a buy? Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. have been allowing customers in India to sign up and trade on their prediction markets even after the country’s technology ministry warned that the platforms are illegal. India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology said in a letter last month that users are accessing “illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms,” despite “domestic pr...
Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. have been allowing customers in India to sign up and trade on their prediction markets even after the country’s technology ministry warned that the platforms are illegal. India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology said in a letter last month that users are accessing “illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms,” despite “domestic prohibitions.” The advisory , posted on the ministry’s website, pointed specifically to “Polymarket and a few other similar sites,” which it said are supposed to be cut off by internet providers. The letter, which was dated April 25, was addressed to providers of virtual private networks, which the ministry said were being used to circumvent restrictions. The agency told the providers that they would have “exposure to consequential legal action” if they allowed access to the venues. A new Indian law meant to curb online gambling countrywide went into effect on May 1. A Kalshi spokesperson said it had no comment on the technology ministry’s advisory, or the volume of trading it receives from India. Kalshi’s legal counsel, Valeria Vouterakou, said the company has been in communication with the Indian government and has not been told to shut down. In the meantime, it is taking new customers. Like Kalshi’s US-based customers, they are required to go through identity checks before trading on the platform. “We will comply with the government’s requests should they make them,” Vouterakou said. Polymarket does not include India on its list of restricted countries. A spokesperson for the company said it is “committed to complying with applicable laws and regulations across all jurisdictions in which it operates. We maintain geoblocking measures to restrict access in jurisdictions where our services are not permitted, and we continuously evaluate and update those measures.” The technology ministry did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Cricket Wagers Kalshi has drawn signifi...
champc/iStock via Getty Images Investing Environment Global equities declined during Q1 2026, pulling back from all-time highs as markets responded to a combination of geopolitical escalation, shifting monetary policy expectations and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Energy stocks surged, with Q1 returns exceeding 30% across major indices. Value outperformed growth as investors continued to r...
champc/iStock via Getty Images Investing Environment Global equities declined during Q1 2026, pulling back from all-time highs as markets responded to a combination of geopolitical escalation, shifting monetary policy expectations and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Energy stocks surged, with Q1 returns exceeding 30% across major indices. Value outperformed growth as investors continued to rotate out of technology stocks and into more commodity-sensitive areas. Market leadership continued to broaden during the period. In the US, large-cap growth stocks lagged, while mid- and small-cap indices were more resilient, posting modest gains for the quarter. The best performing segment of the market was the Russell 2000® Value Index, which delivered a 5.0% return during Q1. Outside the US, emerging markets continued their recent streak of outperformance relative to developed markets. Europe declined, while other developed markets posted mixed results. Bond markets experienced increased volatility as rising energy prices and shifting monetary policy expectations drove a sharp increase in 10-year Treasury yields, which spiked to 4.4% in late March. Yields later moderated as investors weighed slowing growth against persistent inflation pressures. At its March monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve held rates steady and updated its projections to reflect slower growth and somewhat higher inflation. While the Fed continued to characterize the economy as resilient, it emphasized elevated uncertainty and signaled a more cautious, data-dependent approach to policy easing. At the start of Q1, markets expected one or two more rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, but that changed to a modest probability of policy tightening as markets moved to a more balanced view of inflation and growth. The escalation of conflict in Iran became a central driver of market behavior. Military actions and subsequent retaliations contributed to a sharp rise in oil prices and disrupted supplies of ot...
Upstart is a growing fintech with the potential to accelerate growth and begin taking share from its larger competitors, driven by an AI-powered platform.
Upstart is a growing fintech with the potential to accelerate growth and begin taking share from its larger competitors, driven by an AI-powered platform.
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images U.K. gilt yields steadied on Monday after coming under heavy selling pressure last week, as traders gauge whether a challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership poses a threat to the country's fiscal stability. As bond markets opened on Monday morning, the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, or gilt, s...
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images U.K. gilt yields steadied on Monday after coming under heavy selling pressure last week, as traders gauge whether a challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership poses a threat to the country's fiscal stability. As bond markets opened on Monday morning, the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, or gilt, stood at 5.15%, easing by 2 basis points. Last Friday, the yield on 20 and 30-year gilts rose to their highest levels since 1998 . On Monday, the interest rate on the 30-year gilt remained elevated, but also fell 2 basis points to at 5.83%. U.K. borrowing costs have been under pressure since nationwide local elections saw the ruling Labour Party perform badly, promoting calls for Starmer to stand down. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Political turmoil in the U.K. has helped drive borrowing costs to generational highs. Starmer has so far refused to resign, but he now faces potential leadership challenges from several Labour colleagues, including his former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, his former deputy Angela Rayner and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. The uncertainty in British politics has put bond markets on edge as investors consider whether a new PM will loosen self-imposed fiscal rules limiting borrowing and spending. Burnham, who is thought to be on the left of his party, looked to reassure investors at the weekend that the U.K. government's fiscal policies would be in safe hands were he to become PM, rowing back on previous comments in which he appeared to suggest the country was "in hock to the bond markets." "I have never said you can just ignore the bond markets," Burnham told ITV News at the weekend. "I said politicians had placed Britain in hock because of the way in which we lost control of our finances and public spending when we handed away control of energy, water, housing," he added. The road for Burnham to replace Starmer is not a smooth one. Fir...