Investors have lifted odds that the Federal Reserve is on the verge of raising interest rates, but lingering labor-market fragility and the risks to growth from surging oil prices make that a long shot, at least for now. On March 19, federal funds rate futures showed a 6% chance of an April hike, and have stayed in positive territory since. This marked the first time since December 2023 that inves...
Investors have lifted odds that the Federal Reserve is on the verge of raising interest rates, but lingering labor-market fragility and the risks to growth from surging oil prices make that a long shot, at least for now. On March 19, federal funds rate futures showed a 6% chance of an April hike, and have stayed in positive territory since. This marked the first time since December 2023 that investors saw a hike at the central bank’s next policy meeting as more likely than a cut. The shift by investors illustrates the enormous uncertainty for the US economy created by the war and by the potential ripple effects of a surge in oil prices. But economists and analysts who closely follow the central bank say a rate hike in the near term remains a highly unlikely. “Of course the oil shock is a new inflation risk, but it’s also, if anything, a negative growth shock and maybe negative for employment,” said Veronica Clark , an economist at Citigroup Inc. Policymakers appear to agree. In their most recent set of economic projections, issued after the war began, none of the Fed’s 19 policymakers penciled in rate increases this year and only one did so for 2027. Most, in fact, signaled another cut . “The possibility rather, that our next move might be an increase did come up at the meeting,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the gathering last week. Still, a “vast majority” of the Federal Open Market Committee don’t see a hike as their base case scenario, he added. Officials have been quick to point out that the impact of an oil-price shock on inflation can be temporary, and moving rates can take many months to influence the economy. That means the downward pressure a rate hike places on inflation might only arrive after price increases are over, or even reversed. To justify an increase in rates, many analysts said the spike in energy prices would have to be prolonged, bleed into other products and services, and be accompanied by a job market that was driving up wage...
alexei_tm/iStock via Getty Images Overview When I previously covered the Lazard Global Total Return & Income Fund ( LGI ), I issued a buy rating due to the potential to collect tax-efficient income over time. However, the landscape of the global markets has changed since the time of my last coverage so I wanted to revisit the overall value proposition at this time. While I still believe that the f...
alexei_tm/iStock via Getty Images Overview When I previously covered the Lazard Global Total Return & Income Fund ( LGI ), I issued a buy rating due to the potential to collect tax-efficient income over time. However, the landscape of the global markets has changed since the time of my last coverage so I wanted to revisit the overall value proposition at this time. While I still believe that the fund is capable of providing tax-efficient income for investors, there are some caveats to consider. Additionally, the fund has released an updated annual report for 2025, which prompted me to revisit the fund's performance and highlight some of the tradeoffs that investors should consider. Looking at the performance over the last twelve months, we can see that LGI's share price has increased by nearly 9.8%. The fund has demonstrated its ability to participate in the positive momentum of equities over the last few quarters. When including all distributions that were paid out to shareholders, the total return jumps up to 18.9% over the same time frame. LGI stands out due to its ability to provide a double-digit dividend yield of 11%, while paying out distributions on a monthly basis. Data by YCharts With the rapid expansion of the AI markets, LGI has been able to directly capture the upside growth of its holdings. However, this has caused the fund to now trade at one of the largest premium to NAV valuations over its historical range. Therefore, entry here is quite risky if the positive momentum of the markets does not continue. We have the threat of global tensions, rising unemployment, and uncertainty around interest rates that can serve as a challenge to growth. Fund Strategy According to the latest fact sheet , LGI has total net assets of $245.4M that are spread across a blended portfolio of equities and income-producing securities. The fund's primary goal is to generate attractive total returns over time, so LGI provides exposure to a global range of securities. Approxima...
Xcel Energy (NASDAQ:XEL) has delivered a 14% gain over the past year, and analysts cluster around a consensus target of $88.44. UBS cut its price target to $89 from $93 while keeping its Buy rating, arguing the recent selloff has pushed the stock below UBS’s assessed fair value. That target implies meaningful upside from current ... Xcel Energy Could Hit $89 by Year-End as UBS Argues Wildfire Risk...
Xcel Energy (NASDAQ:XEL) has delivered a 14% gain over the past year, and analysts cluster around a consensus target of $88.44. UBS cut its price target to $89 from $93 while keeping its Buy rating, arguing the recent selloff has pushed the stock below UBS’s assessed fair value. That target implies meaningful upside from current ... Xcel Energy Could Hit $89 by Year-End as UBS Argues Wildfire Risks Are Already Priced Into $76.75 Stock
alexsl Goldman Sachs has downgraded Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical ( RARE ) to neutral from buy citing disappointing phase 3 trial results released in December for seralutinib as a treatment for the rare genetic bone disorder osteogenesis imperfecta. The bank has a $25 price target (~23% upside based on March 23 close). Analyst Salveen Richter noted that the data from the two trials missed statistical ...
alexsl Goldman Sachs has downgraded Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical ( RARE ) to neutral from buy citing disappointing phase 3 trial results released in December for seralutinib as a treatment for the rare genetic bone disorder osteogenesis imperfecta. The bank has a $25 price target (~23% upside based on March 23 close). Analyst Salveen Richter noted that the data from the two trials missed statistical signi fi cance on annualized fracture rates vs. placebo or standard-of-care bisphosphonates, the primary endpoint. However, a secondary endpoint, bone mineral density, was met with statistical significance in both studies. Although Ultragenyx is conducting additional analyses on the results to determine next steps forward, "we see a limited regulatory/commercial path forward for setrusumab, thus removing the key near-term growth lever for the Company." Richter said that Angelman syndrome asset GTX-102 is now the key value driver, "albeit where we see risk to Ph3 data in 2H given the trial design and disease heterogeneity, as well as competitive dynamics per IONS’ mechanistically similar ION582." And while achieving GAAP profitability in 2027 is possible, it will need " the 2H+ approvals/launches of gene therapies DTX401 in [glycogen storage disease type Ia (GSD1a)] and UX111 in [Sanfilippo syndrome (MPS IIIA), which could unlock two priority review vouchers (currently valued at ~$150mn each in our model)." More on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Presents at Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026 Transcript Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Presents at Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference Transcript Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Presents at TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference Transcript Ultragenyx posts late-stage trial win for gene therapy in urea cycle disorder Ultragenyx granted FDA priority review for rare metabolic disorder gene therapy
Deagreez/iStock via Getty Images I previously covered DraftKings ( DKNG ) in November 2025, discussing why I had reiterated my Buy rating despite the twice lowered FY2025 guidance then, thanks to its compelling valuations after the prior meltdown, the positive cash flows, and the numerous growth drivers arising from ESPN Bet, Online Sports Betting (OSB) growth, and entry to the prediction market. ...
Deagreez/iStock via Getty Images I previously covered DraftKings ( DKNG ) in November 2025, discussing why I had reiterated my Buy rating despite the twice lowered FY2025 guidance then, thanks to its compelling valuations after the prior meltdown, the positive cash flows, and the numerous growth drivers arising from ESPN Bet, Online Sports Betting (OSB) growth, and entry to the prediction market. In this article, I shall discuss why I am reiterating my Buy rating for the DKNG stock here, thanks to the compelling valuations and the improved risk/reward from the prior meltdown, aided by the oversold RSIs and the bottoming trading volumes. My optimism is further aided by their well-diversified gaming offerings/super app platform likely to drive robust adoption trends (upon further legal clarity on the predictions platform), the promising FY2026/FY2030 guidance, and the healthy balance sheet allowing them to engage in aggressive investments to drive accelerated growth prospects. DKNG Faces Intense Competition From Prediction Market DKNG 1Y Stock Price (TradingView) Since my last Buy rating, DKNG has underperformed expectations, yet again, with a similar development also observed in its gaming peers in varying degrees against the wider market's sideways trading. Author's Historical Rating (Seeking Alpha) These developments have naturally discredited my prior Buy ratings for DKNG, with it apparent that the market remains unconvinced about their profitable growth prospects, despite the robust FY2025 performance and the promising FY2026 guidance. Part of the headwinds may be attributed to the growing consumer adoption of " federally regulated prediction market platforms and related exchange-style products." For example, Kalshi already reports annualized revenues of $1.3B, or the equivalent of ~16% of DKNG's annualized FQ4'25 revenues, despite the nascency of the former's popularity since the US presidential election in 2024. With Kalshi boasting 5.1M monthly active users as...
AlexLMX/iStock via Getty Images By Mandy Xu Cross-Asset Volatility : Implied volatilities were mixed last week as investors weighed the impact of the ongoing Iran war. Oil volatility collapsed as oil prices stabilized, with WTI 1M implied vol down over 40 pts to 72% and trading below realized vol (at 85%) for the first time since the war started. Interest rate volatility gained the most across ass...
AlexLMX/iStock via Getty Images By Mandy Xu Cross-Asset Volatility : Implied volatilities were mixed last week as investors weighed the impact of the ongoing Iran war. Oil volatility collapsed as oil prices stabilized, with WTI 1M implied vol down over 40 pts to 72% and trading below realized vol (at 85%) for the first time since the war started. Interest rate volatility gained the most across asset classes, with the VIXTLT Index up 12 pts to 117 bps vol, as rate cut expectations diminished following the FOMC meeting. In fact, markets are now pricing in ~30% probability of a rate hike by year-end (vs. pricing in 1 full cut a week ago and 2.5 cuts a month ago). Gold volatility increased as the precious metal sold off, down over 10% last week as real yields spiked. Despite gold’s reputation as an inflation hedge, its track record has been rather poor in recent years. In 2022, gold fell over 20% from the highs as inflation surprised to the upside. Positioning in the gold options market has also shifted notably in recent weeks as inflation risk has become more pronounced, with demand for puts increasing. After being persistently inverted over the past year (i.e., calls trading at a premium to puts), GLD skew has steepened to a 1-year high, with puts now trading at a premium to calls (Exhibit 2). The unreliability of traditional safe havens (e.g., bonds and gold) in recent years is a key reason behind the rise in options-based ETFs, particularly buffer ETFs, as investors turn to options for portfolio protection (for more, see our “Beyond 60/40” paper ). FLEX options, which are used in the buffer ETFs to give the defined outcome, have grown in popularity, with a record 4.1M contracts trading on Friday (5% of total market volume). Equity Volatility : Last week was another “spot down, vol down” week, with the SPX® Index down 1.9% and the VIX® Index down 0.4 pt to 26.8%. The decline in the VIX Index was primarily a result of lower fixed strike vols as well as the continued f...
AnthonyRosenberg/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images HP ( HPQ ) revealed a new line-up of high-performance PCs capable of supporting up to four of Nvidia's ( NVDA ) RTX Pro 6000 Blackwell Max-Q Workstation Edition GPUs today at its Imagine 2026 conference. The HP Z8 Fury G6i workstation is built for high-performance computing, AI development, visual effects, and simulation workloads. With the HP ZB...
AnthonyRosenberg/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images HP ( HPQ ) revealed a new line-up of high-performance PCs capable of supporting up to four of Nvidia's ( NVDA ) RTX Pro 6000 Blackwell Max-Q Workstation Edition GPUs today at its Imagine 2026 conference. The HP Z8 Fury G6i workstation is built for high-performance computing, AI development, visual effects, and simulation workloads. With the HP ZBoost, it can also share GPU resources with other computers. "HP Z workstations are built to equip the best and brightest professionals with the tools they need for specialized workflows and AI at the edge, while giving IT decision makers the ability to scale performance responsibly," said Jim Nottingham , SVP and Division President of HP's Advanced Compute Solutions. HP also released what it calls mobile workstations with the HP ZBook X G2i, HP ZBook 8 G2i, and ZBook 8G2a. The HP ZBook X is the world's most powerful 16" mainstream mobile workstation and features powerful 3000-level graphics and 128GB RAM, according to HP. HP collaborated with Intel ( INTC ) and Autodesk ( ADSK ) to enable architects and engineers to run complex, multi-software workflows wherever required on the new devices. The new workstations and laptops are expected to be available in April. Prices will be revealed closer to the release date. For gaming, HP also highlighted the new HyperX OMEN MAX 45L, which is its most powerful Intel-powered gaming desktop. It was engineered for extreme performance, advanced cooling, and long-term upgradability. It broadens OMEN AI support to more PC titles, including Minecraft, Roblox, and Marvel Rivals, enabling one-click performance optimization that intelligently tunes operating system, hardware, and game settings to improve frame rates. HP revealed the HyperX OMEN 35L as well. The 45L is powered by an Intel Core Ultra 7 processor 270K Plusii to deliver up to 10% more gaming performance over the previous generation , the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5090 GPUii with up to 128 ...
RiverNorthPhotography With no analyst consensus to anchor expectations, the options market is the only price discovery mechanism available going into GameStop's ( GME ) Q4 report—and it's telling a story that goes well beyond the quarterly numbers. GameStop shares closed at $23.03 on Monday, with the March 27 options chain pricing in a move of roughly 7-8% in either direction by Friday's expiratio...
RiverNorthPhotography With no analyst consensus to anchor expectations, the options market is the only price discovery mechanism available going into GameStop's ( GME ) Q4 report—and it's telling a story that goes well beyond the quarterly numbers. GameStop shares closed at $23.03 on Monday, with the March 27 options chain pricing in a move of roughly 7-8% in either direction by Friday's expiration. Without enough analysts covering the stock to generate consensus estimates, there is no beat or miss to anticipate in the conventional sense. The earnings reaction will be driven by what CEO Ryan Cohen says, or doesn't say, about his ambitions to transform GameStop into a Berkshire Hathaway-style acquisition platform. The options lean is bullish — but the $25 calls tell a specific story The call side dominates the chain with clear conviction. The $25 call is the single most active strike in the entire chain, with 9,355 contracts traded and 10,374 in open interest — sitting roughly 8.5% above Monday's close and comfortably outside the implied move range. The $23.50 and $24 calls also saw heavy activity, with 7,517 and 5,417 contracts respectively. Put activity is comparatively subdued. The $22 put saw 4,478 contracts and the $22.50 put 4,168 — meaningful but clearly secondary to the bullish positioning above the current price. The concentration at the $25 call takes on added significance given Cohen's recently stated M&A ambitions . Traders buying those calls may be less interested in the quarterly figures than in any color the report provides on deal timing, financing, and potential targets. The $30 calls: betting the company Even more striking is the open interest at the $30 call — 10,668 contracts at a strike roughly 30% above the current stock price. Positioned well beyond any reasonable earnings-driven move, these look less like a short-term earnings play and more like a longer-term bet on Cohen's acquisition strategy paying off dramatically. That framing is reinforc...
Key PointsGregg C. Sengstack, a director at Mueller Water Products, purchased 25,000 shares of common stock in an open-market transaction on Feb. 25, 2026, at an average price of approximately $29.58 per share.
Key PointsGregg C. Sengstack, a director at Mueller Water Products, purchased 25,000 shares of common stock in an open-market transaction on Feb. 25, 2026, at an average price of approximately $29.58 per share.
Wheat is showing slight strength on Tuesday morning. The wheat complex started the week with losses across the three markets on Monday. Chicago SRW futures were 2 ¾ to 7 ½ cents lower. Open interest was down 1,680 contracts on Monday. KC HRW futures were fractionally to 3 cents in...
Wheat is showing slight strength on Tuesday morning. The wheat complex started the week with losses across the three markets on Monday. Chicago SRW futures were 2 ¾ to 7 ½ cents lower. Open interest was down 1,680 contracts on Monday. KC HRW futures were fractionally to 3 cents in...