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Alexey Bakharev/iStock via Getty Images By Warren Patterson , Head of Commodities Strategy and Ewa Manthey , Commodities Strategist Energy - Continued whipsaw movements driving oil market The oil market continues to trade in wide ranges, and it remains extremely sensitive to Iran-related headlines amid current supply disruptions. ICE Brent traded almost in a $6/bbl range yesterday. Prices whipsawe...
Alexey Bakharev/iStock via Getty Images By Warren Patterson , Head of Commodities Strategy and Ewa Manthey , Commodities Strategist Energy - Continued whipsaw movements driving oil market The oil market continues to trade in wide ranges, and it remains extremely sensitive to Iran-related headlines amid current supply disruptions. ICE Brent traded almost in a $6/bbl range yesterday. Prices whipsawed after more aggressive rhetoric from President Trump coming into this week, followed by reports that the US offered a temporary sanction waiver on Iranian oil until an agreement between the US and Iran is reached. The US has not confirmed these reports. Meanwhile, Trump said he held off on strikes on Iran, scheduled for today, after pressure from a number of Gulf countries, with “serious negotiations” now taking place. One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted. The US extended a waiver that expired over the weekend, allowing the sale of Russian oil floating at sea for another 30 days. It allows sales until 17 June, with the aim of stabilising oil markets amid significant losses in the Persian Gulf. The extension will be welcomed by Asian buyers, who are most exposed to the ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. The latest data from China show the impact of the ongoing supply disruptions on the domestic oil sector. Refineries in April processed 13.35m b/d of crude oil, down 5.8% year-on-year and the lowest level since August 2024. Apparent oil demand also came under pressure, falling 5.8% YoY to 13.03m b/d. However, it’s important to remember that apparent demand doesn’t account for changes in inventory. The number could be very different from true demand, particularly given that we likely saw large inventory drawdowns over the month. Metals - Copper extends losses Copper on the LME extended losses on Monday, pres...