股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 920978 开特股份 北交所信息更新：境外收入提升89%、发行投资智能电机产能，2025全年归母净利润+26% 增持 维持 1.190 23.20 汽车零部件 null

股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 603062 麦加芯彩 盈利保韧性，多元化探索，迈向工业涂料平台 买入 维持 2.040 24.30 化学制品 null

2026年2月末爆发的中东冲突已进入第六周，美国金融条件快速收紧引发全球市场剧烈波动。3月以来10年期美债收益率最大上行超50个基点，伦敦现货黄金最低下探至4099美元/盎司，最大跌幅接近25%。我们聚焦美债收益率上行与海外央行集中抛售对美国财政的冲击，以此解析特朗普政府TACO的核心决策依据。 2025财年，美国联邦债务净利息支出已高达9700亿美元，成为联邦预算中最刚性的压力项之一。净利息支出加速攀升，本质是债务基数持续膨胀与国债收益率中枢上移共同驱动的结果；而联邦赤字扩大与利率上行之间，已形成自我强化的循环。为量化利率上行对财政的边际冲击，我们进行如下测算：若未来10年美债收益率从2025年末的4.1%，整体上行至2025年4月前高4.6%附近，美国联邦公共债务未来十年将累计新增利息支出约1.6万亿美元，相当于一轮大规模财政刺激法案的成本，这正是特朗普政府希望竭力避免的财政后果。 美联储H.4.1周度报表显示，2026年3月外国官方投资者（含海外央行）净抛售美债658亿美元，单月减持规模位仅低于2020年3月新冠疫情期间的1090亿美元、以及2023年3月硅谷银行（SVB）危机期间的710亿美元；此次抛售幅度显著击穿近15年2σ置信区间下限，属于极端异常的尾部信号。海外央行集中减持主要源于两类需求：一是中东产油国受冲突影响，油气收入大幅下滑，需抛售美债变现以支撑国防开支与基建融资；二是油价3月内大涨50%并带动美元指数走强，土耳其、日本等亚洲经济体货币贬值压力加剧，需卖出美债换取美元以稳定汇率。 短期来看，这一级别的抛售尚不构成系统性风险：当美债收益率上行突破关键点位后，国内配置盘需求将逐步激活，推动供需重归平衡。但风险在于，若中东冲突长期化、海外央行抛压持续加剧，国内投资者将要求更高的期限溢价作为补偿，进而形成 “抛压加剧——期限溢价抬升——收益率上行” 的自我强化循环，最终严重冲击美国财政可持续性。而这正是特朗普政府在中东决策中持续保持克制、倾向于TACO的核心原因。

摘要 市场现状：2025年上半年，国内主要农业省份的拖拉机销量整体呈现下滑态势，但不同区域表现差异明显。散户购机需求降温后，小马力经济型拖拉机成为农户的过渡性选择。但从长期趋势来看，市场需求仍将向大马力、高效率的高端农机设备升级，行业的升级方向明确。 自2015年起，国内大中型拖拉机行业进入持续调整期，市场存量特征日益明显，行业集中度也在稳步提升。到2025年，行业前五企业的市场份额已接近60%，头部企业主导的格局基本形成。在前十企业中，潍柴雷沃与中国一拖（东方红）的领先优势尤为突出，市场份额向头部集中的趋势清晰可见，且这一趋势预计在未来还将延续。 产业链：上游的高端核心部件（如液压系统、CVT传动、电控系统）凭借技术垄断和生态壁垒，掌握着最高话语权；中游的头部整机厂则在中小马力机型及本土化市场中占据主导地位；下游市场则主要受政策和需求影响，议价能力相对最弱。柴油机是拖拉机的核心零部件，以一拖股份的产品为例，其柴油机成本占比超30%。 补贴与政策的影响：补贴政策显著降低了农户的购机门槛，有效激发了中小农户和新型农业经营主体的购机意愿。2024年农机补贴资金达到246亿元，创下历史新高。同时，“优机优补”的补贴导向也在引导行业向大功率、智能化、绿色化方向转型。 国四排放标准的落地，对行业产生了深远影响。一方面，它为行业设立了明确的技术门槛，加速了市场资源向头部企业集中；另一方面，标准要求发动机、后处理装置、联网系统等多环节深度协同，推动主机厂与核心供应商建立更紧密的合作关系，促进了产业链上下游的协同创新，助力构建更具竞争力的产业生态。

摘要 全球女士内衣市场正经历从基础功能型向场景驱动型的深刻变革。消费者需求持续向舒适性、功能细分及情感价值融合演变，推动品类创新与市场扩容。传统内衣巨头增长承压，以科技创新为核心的新兴品牌快速崛起，行业竞争格局加速重构。供应链向区域化与敏捷化调整，舒适革新、工艺创新、智能应用与可持续发展成为产品升级与品牌差异化的关键路径。 整体市场稳健增长，品类结构持续优化 女士内衣市场规模保持稳步扩张，文胸作为核心品类占据主导，塑身衣、家居服等细分品类增速显著。区域市场中，北美仍为最大消费市场，亚洲等新兴地区增长动力强劲，成为全球扩容的重要支撑。 消费需求深度演变，场景与体验成为核心 消费者购买决策从传统外观导向，转向对舒适贴合、功能支撑、安全环保等多维体验的追求。穿着场景不断拓宽，日常、运动、居家等边界模糊，推动产品向更高渗透率、多功能与日常高频穿着方向发展。 竞争格局重塑，科技创新品牌引领变革 传统品牌面临品牌老化与渠道压力，市场份额呈下滑趋势。以科技面料、场景细分和数字化直营为核心的新兴品牌，通过精准用户洞察与快速产品迭代，持续抢占市场，推动行业向专业化、细分化演进。 塑身衣赛道增长突出，呈现专业化与日常化双轨发展塑身衣已从强约束工具发展为兼顾塑形与舒适的日常服饰，轻塑产品占据主流。市场竞争格局分散且区域化特征明显，领先品牌凭借材料创新、版型研发与全渠道运营构建竞争壁垒。 未来趋势聚焦舒适革命、智能科技与绿色可持续 行业发展将围绕无感穿着的舒适体验深化、创新面料与工艺、健康监测等功能集成、海洋再生与生物基材料的绿色创新展开。深刻的消费洞察、产品设计与创新能力、柔性供应链制造与品牌价值构建将成为企业长期竞争关键。

摘要 射频前端芯片是无线信号发射与接收的关键器件，可分立存在，也可集成封装。行业特征包括：以项目导入为核心的B2B定制协同商业模式；国际寡头主导下的分层竞争格局，高端环节竞争更集中；需求侧由5G高占比与多频共存推动，行业增长体现为结构性升级。2020-2025年行业市场规模年复合增长率为14.01%，2025-2030年预计为5.88%，增长主要由5G与高集成化需求、下游应用扩展及配置升级驱动，但终端厂对成本压制使规模扩张依赖价值量提升。 射频前端芯片（RFFront-End,RFFE）是位于天线与射频收发器/基带接口之间、服务于无线信号发射（TX）与接收（RX）链路的一类关键射频器件与集成电路，其核心功能是在既定频段与制式条件下完成功率放大（PA）、低噪声放大（LNA）、射频切换（Switch）、滤波以及双工/多工（Filter、Duplexer、Multiplexer）等处理，以实现对无线信号的放大、选频、隔离与干扰抑制，从而满足发射功率、线性度、接收灵敏度及多频段共存等系统指标；在产业实践中，这些器件既可以以分立芯片形态存在，也可通过射频前端模组（FEM）方式进行高度集成封装，用于支撑移动通信、Wi-Fi、蜂窝与物联网等多制式无线终端的射频链路运行。

股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 300454 深信服 全面深化AI发展战略，盈利能力显著改善 买入 维持 1.230 87.08 软件开发 null

【A股大势研判】 周三A股放量普涨，沪指上涨超百点，深成指涨幅4.79%，创业板指涨近6%，科创50涨超6%。全市场超5000只个股飘红，两市成交额放大至2.4万亿元。盘面上，AI产业链、半导体等科技股全线大涨，贵金属板块同样表现亮眼，而油气、煤炭等能源板块则陷入阶段性调整。 据新华社消息，美伊以同意停火两周，谈判将于10日开始，霍尔木兹海峡将开放两周。此消息成为关键催化剂——此前因地缘局势扰动而大涨的原油价格回落，通胀担忧暂时缓解，市场重新开始定价“降息周期延续”。而在冲突发酵期间，资金被迫从科技股撤出，涌入油气等避险方向。如今预期改善，市场主线迅速切换至科技主线。 暂时停火并不等于根本性矛盾的解决，但其对资本市场的影响深刻。市场风险偏好显著回升，短期市场大概率延续修复走势。不过，停火期间的谈判走向、潜在的反复风险，以及A股即将进入4月下旬业绩密集披露期，部分公司面临盈利承压的现实考验，都可能制约反弹的高度与持续性。整体上看，即便期间出现震荡也不影响A股中长期慢牛格局。 操作上，逢低关注半导体、人工智能等科技成长板块，前期估值因地缘风险被压制，与基本面形成背离，随着风险偏好回升，资金回流有望推动估值修复。合理控制仓位、理性操作，是后续应对市场波动的关键。

股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 688808 联讯仪器 新股覆盖研究：联讯仪器 - 通用设备 null

股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 920418 苏轴股份 2025年报点评：新兴赛道放量驱动成长，机器人与航空航天打开增量空间 买入 维持 1.060 22.19 汽车零部件 null

股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 600875 东方电气 毛利率持续改善 在手订单超过千亿 买入 维持 1.390 27.66 其他电源设备Ⅱ null

股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 003013 地铁设计 营收利润短暂承压，数智低碳业务稳步增长 买入 维持 1.040 12.65 工程咨询服务Ⅱ null

股票代码 股票简称 报告名称 东财评级 评级变动 2026盈利预测 2027盈利预测 行业 收益 市盈率 收益 市盈率 605499 东鹏饮料 多品类协同发力，成本控制稳健向好 买入 维持 9.710 20.40 饮料乳品 null

重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评*王君徐沛东。足球主题正由事件博弈向产业链扩散演绎，短期热度有望延续，中期需继续观察赛事经济的落地兑现。 【房地产】金地集团*夏亦丰许佳璐。摘要：金地集团公布2025年年报。公司2025年实现营业总收入358.6亿元，同比下降52.4%；归母净利润-132.8亿元，亏损扩大（2024年亏损61.2亿元）。公司2025年无分红计划。 【电子】豪威集团*苏凌瑶茅珈恺。豪威集团2025年营收和归母净利润同比稳健增长，各业务板块表现分化。车载和新兴应用驱动CIS业务增长，车载模拟IC成为模拟业务增长亮点，显示解决方案积极转型OLEDDDIC赛道。维持买入评级。 【基础化工】彤程新材*余嫄嫄范琦岩。电子材料方面，公司是国内半导体光刻胶龙头，ArF、KrF、EBR等新产品系列陆续通过国内多家客户验证并逐渐放量，同时布局显示材料、CMP抛光垫等业务打造电子化学品平台型企业；汽车/轮胎用特种材料方面，公司是全球最大的轮胎橡胶用特种酚醛树脂供应商，稳居行业龙头地位。看好公司电子化学品业务持续突破，首次覆盖，给予买入评级。 【电子】恒玄科技*苏凌瑶茅珈恺。恒玄科技发布2025年年度报告。公司2025年营收结构呈现多元化趋势。TWS耳机和智能手表持续巩固细分市场地位，公司前瞻性布局智能眼镜高增长赛道，自研6nmSoC赋能端侧AI未来。维持增持评级。 【计算机】英伟达份额腰斩，寒武纪等国产AI芯片商扳回局面*杨思睿郑静文。中国主导的世界数据组织（WDO）在北京成立，标志着中国从全球贸易体系的“入局者”转变为数据时代全球规则制定的“组局者”；英伟达以20亿美元投资Marvell，通过绑定NVLinkFusion等互连技术，加速结盟原本可能竞争的芯片厂商，以巩固其在多元化AI未来中的平台主导地位；2025年国产AI芯片在中国云端市场占比升至41%，华为以近20%份额居首，英伟达份额从95%腰斩至55%。

2026年第3期《求是》发表了习近平总书记的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》。文章强调要“不断推进金融实践创新、理论创新、制度创新，积累了宝贵经验，逐步走出一条中国特色金融发展之路”，这为“科特估”估值体系的不断实践创新、理论创新指明了方向，提供了根本遵循；另外，学习领会文章精神，与西方金融模式本质区别是，中国金融市场的本质要做到“三个服务”，即“服务于国家战略、服务于实体经济、服务于人民”，这为“科特估”估值体系下构建起的“安全溢价”、“战略溢价”、“长期溢价”、“新技术溢价”和“新经营溢价”五维估值体系，提供了理论底座。 国家安全是科技安全的根本保障，科技安全是国家安全的核心支撑，二者相互依存。今年两会政府工作报告明确了“总体国家安全观”的核心导向：全面贯彻总体国家安全观，健全国家安全体系，加强重点领域国家安全能力建设，“十五五”时期的目标重点强调筑牢更巩固的国家安全屏障；同时，政府工作报告也对“科技安全”做出了核心部署：发挥新型举国体制优势，全链条攻关关键核心技术；提高基础研究投入比重，强化科技基础条件自主保障；建设三大国际科创中心，强化企业创新主体地位，加速科技成果转化。 在新时代大国竞争中，科技安全已上升为国家安全的战略核心，谁主导人工智能、量子、半导体、生物医药、空天科技、新能源等核心科技的经济体，谁就能主导未来国际格局。国家生存发展稳定不受威胁、不被卡脖子、不被颠覆，是现代国家安全观的核心变量。外部遏制、技术封锁、制裁、脱钩断链，本质是用国家安全名义打击科技安全，用科技安全手段威胁国家安全。未来，谁掌握前沿科技，谁就掌握国家安全的主动权。在国家安全和科技安全大背景下，自主可控的科技产业，不再是单纯的商业投资，而是国家战略资产配置的关键组成部分，这使得重塑自主可控科技产业的估值，构建社会主义“科特估”估值体系，就从“可选项”成为了“必选项”。 实现和打通“科技赋能产业、资本滋养科技、产业反哺资本”的闭环。习近平总书记多次强调“坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上”，强化科技创新对实体产业硬科技的赋能，锚定实体产业痛点布局核心技术攻关；发挥资本市场对科技创新的精准滋养，激活循环动能，构建适配科技企业全周期的融资体系；推动实体产业对资本市场的价值反哺，巩固技术、资金与实体经济形成正循环。“科特估”估值体系的核心任务，就是要通过制度创新、主体...

格隆汇4月8日丨伊朗外交部：伊朗外交部长与土耳其外长通话时表示，伊朗接受停火协议作为全面结束战争的基础。德黑兰同意停火，是以其提出的十点方案作为与美国谈判的基础。如果美方表现出诚意，就有望实现战争的结束，并建立持久的稳定与安全。

Tesla's Inventory Nightmare Could Trigger 60% Slump For TSLA, JPMorgan Analyst Warns Benzinga

Microsoft (MSFT) Stock: ‘Time to Pull the Trigger’ or Time to Walk Away? CoinCentral

Microsoft (MSFT) Stock: ‘Time to Pull the Trigger’ or Time to Walk Away? coincentral.com

Sanction for financial breach has led to a relegation fight Leicester now ‘fully focused’ on final five games of season Leicester have announced defeat in their appeal against a six-point deduction for breaching English Football League financial rules. An independent commission imposed the sanction on Leicester in February, which dropped the from 17th to 20th in the Championship. They appealed against the decision and, on the pitch, have subsequently fallen to 22nd, a point adrift of safety with five fixtures remaining. It is very possible the club, currently managed by Gary Rowett, could be relegated to League One a decade on from winning the Premier League title. Continue reading...

Nordroden/iStock via Getty Images I have covered GE Vernova Inc. ( GEV ) before , where I outlined the company’s background in detail and explained why I considered its growth was already priced in. However, since then the stock has appreciated by almost 20%, and I am upgrading to hold since I expect the company will receive even more business from the Middle East due to all the destruction from the current war. Yet, I don’t own the stock, as the current price still leaves little room for major execution slips. Background GE Vernova is a global energy infrastructure and technology company focused on enabling the energy transition through three segments: Power (mainly Gas, Nuclear, and Hydro), Wind, and Electrification. According to the company, its equipment generates about 25% of the world’s electricity , which naturally creates a large installed base and a recurring, high‑margin services business that already represents around 45% of revenue. Company's webpage GE Vernova is in the middle of several structural trends that are propelling the company’s growth. The company benefits from the need for more reliable baseload generation (especially gas), the modernization and expansion of transmission grids, and growing power demand from data centers and electrification. Investor Presentation In fact, the main segment is Power, where the company has very limited competition, as the three main players control about 66% of the market , but the segment experiencing the biggest growth is electrification. In 2025 the segment grew revenue by 26% and expanded EBITDA margin to 14.9%. Demand is broad-based, from data centers to grid reinforcement projects all over the world, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq . These two countries are important because, with the current war in the Middle East, the company could benefit from already having a presence in the area to secure new contracts when the war ends. This applies not only to the electrification sector but also to the Power segment...

格隆汇4月8日｜据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯主要出口商3月份外汇净销售额降至24亿美元。

Sources say Apple still targets September debut alongside iPhone 18 Pro models, with initial supply possibly limited due to display complexity.

quantic69 The semiconductor sector and AI-related stocks joined the broader market in a Wednesday rally after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to pause planned strikes on Iran for two weeks, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Navitas ( NVTS ) was leading the rally with a nearly 12% surge by noon trading. Intel ( INTC ) had leaped 8%. It was revealed on Tuesday that Intel has joined the Terafab project alongside billionaire Elon Musk's companies SpaceX ( SPACE ), xAI ( X.AI ), and Tesla (TSLA ) to "help refactor silicon fab technology." Intel is also engaged in discussions with Amazon ( AMZN ) and Google ( GOOG )( GOOGL ) for its advanced packaging services. Broadcom ( AVGO ), Marvell ( MRVL ), and AMD ( AMD ) had all climbed 4%. Taiwan Semiconductor ( TSM ) had jumped 5%. Analog Devices ( ADI ) was also up 5%. Meanwhile, Monolithic Power Systems ( MPWR ) and Lattice ( LSCC ) were both up about 7%. AXT ( AXTI ), a California-based company that designs, develops, and manufactures compound and single-element semiconductor substrates, had rocketed 17% by noon trading. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ( SOX ) had surged more than 5%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) was up 2.5%. Semiconductor equipment makers joined the rally as well, as Applied Materials ( AMAT ) made an 8% leap. The company had also revealed a pair of new chipmaking systems for AI GPUs on Wednesday. Lam Research ( LRCX ) had jumped 9%, ASML ( ASML ) had gained 8%, and KLA ( KLAC ) had climbed 7%. Networking and optical stocks also made significant gains. Coherent ( COHR ) had climbed 6%, Corning ( GLW ) was up 7%, Lumentum ( LITE ) had increased 7.6%, and Ciena ( CIEN ) had soared 9%. AI hyperscalers were also in the green as CoreWeave ( CRWV ) and Nebius ( NBIS ) had both climbed nearly 5%. The world's most prolific cloud providers also moved higher. Google ( GOOG )( GOOGL ) was up 3.7%, Amazon ( AMZN ) had edged up 3.5%, and Microsoft had inched up 1.6%. Mo...

Intel and SambaNova Advance Agentic AI with Xeon 6 Intel Newsroom

Intel and SambaNova Advance Agentic AI with Xeon 6 newsroom.intel.com

Amazon’s Smart Thermostat is down to its best price of the year. | Image: Amazon With temperatures on the rise and Earth Day right around the corner, now’s a good time to invest in a smart thermostat if you haven’t already. A good one like Amazon’s Smart Thermostat can help reduce energy use and lower your bills without sacrificing comfort, and right now it’s just $61.99 ($18 off) at Amazon . Aside from a brief drop during Amazon’s Big Spring Sale, it’s spent most of 2026 at full price, making this the best deal we’ve seen since it dropped to $51.99 on Black Friday. Amazon Smart Thermostat Where to Buy: $79.99 $61.99 at Amazon $79.99 $63.99 at Best Buy $79.99 $63.99 at B&H Photo My colleague Jennifer Pattison Tuohy was impressed by how much the smart thermostat delivers for the price. It can learn your habits over time so you can set it and forget it, which is a feature typically found in more expensive options, and it can automatically adjust based on whether you’re home, away, or asleep. You can also create schedules, tweak settings remotely from your phone, and track your HVAC energy usage in the app, which makes it easier to spot patterns and cut down on your monthly bill. The thermostat also integrates with Amazon Alexa, letting you adjust your home’s temperature using voice commands, and works with most 24-volt HVAC systems. Despite its low price, it doesn’t look cheap either, offering a sleek, minimalist design with a simple, intuitive interface that’s easy to use at a glance. Of course, to keep costs down, there are some features you’ll have to do without. It doesn’t include native temperature sensors, for example, and it doesn’t support voice assistants beyond Alexa. But it still covers the essentials and can help you save on energy costs over time, making it a smart buy for the price. Read our Amazon Smart Thermostat review. Three more deals worth a look: You can pick up the Anker 45W USB-C Fast Charger for $19.99 ($15 off) at Amazon and directly from Anke...

Kunakorn Rassadornyindee/iStock via Getty Images Shares of Comfort Systems USA ( FIX ) surged as much as 8.6% on Wednesday, touching a fresh 52-week high as broader markets rebounded following news of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran . The move adds to a remarkable run for the mechanical and electrical services provider, whose stock has climbed roughly 390% over the past 12 months, making it one of the standout performers in the industrial sector. AI boom fuels demand The rally underscores investor enthusiasm for companies tied to the infrastructure buildout behind artificial intelligence. Comfort Systems ( FIX ) has emerged as a key beneficiary as hyperscale technology companies accelerate construction of data centers, requiring complex heating, ventilation, cooling and electrical systems. That demand has translated into rapid growth and a swelling backlog, positioning the company as a critical player in the physical layer of the AI economy. Backlog signals sustained momentum In February, the company said its backlog reached $11.94 billion at the end of 2025, up from $9.38 billion at the end of the third quarter and nearly double the $5.99 billion reported a year earlier. On a same-store basis, backlog expanded to $11.58 billion from $5.99 billion, highlighting strong underlying demand across its markets. With geopolitical tensions easing, at least temporarily, and structural demand from AI infrastructure still building, investors appear increasingly willing to bid up companies like Comfort Systems ( FIX ) that sit at the intersection of industrial execution and next-generation computing growth. More on Comfort Systems Comfort Systems USA: Strong Momentum Still Supports The Story, A Continued Buy Comfort Systems: The Hidden Data Center Play Comfort Systems: Another Infrastructure Superstar, A Stock Well Worth Its High Valuation Comfort Systems USA outlines plans to grow modular capacity to 4M sq. ft. amid strong technology sector demand Comf...

The ceasefire is welcome but fragile. Friday’s talks in Islamabad must address Iran’s nuclear programme and avoid sidelining the rest of the region The ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran has been met with understandable relief. Talks are now set to take place in Islamabad on Friday, offering a chance to step back from the immediate danger of a wider war. This moment should not be mistaken for a resolution, but understood as a pause – an opportunity to test pathways towards a difficult but necessary political settlement. Despite claims of success from all sides, the reality is that no party was winning the war. President Donald Trump has framed the conflict as both a military victory and a step towards regime change in Iran. Yet the war was ill-conceived, built on the assumption that it would be quick and decisive. Instead it proved far more costly and damaging to US credibility. It did not produce regime change. Rather, it led to the promotion and consolidation of new, untested harder-line leadership at the head of the same political system. The structure of the Islamic Republic remains intact, demonstrating its capacity to absorb shock and consolidate its authority. Sanam Vakil is the director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House Continue reading...