In this week’s Hong Kong Edition, we reflect on the city’s exposure to volatile global energy markets and chat with the proprietor of one of the most unique events of Art March. For the Review, we venture to Sha Tin for a one-of-a-kind izakaya experience. To subscribe to this weekly newsletter for free, click here . Gone With the Windmill So long, Lamma Winds. Hong Kong’s one and only commercial w...
In this week’s Hong Kong Edition, we reflect on the city’s exposure to volatile global energy markets and chat with the proprietor of one of the most unique events of Art March. For the Review, we venture to Sha Tin for a one-of-a-kind izakaya experience. To subscribe to this weekly newsletter for free, click here . Gone With the Windmill So long, Lamma Winds. Hong Kong’s one and only commercial wind turbine is meeting its end after 20 years, a demise all the more poignant as Asia finds itself in the middle of an energy crisis with oil flouncing around the $100 mark. The surging crude price is a sharp reminder of Hong Kong’s exposure to global energy markets, which will persist even if there’s a rapid de-escalation in the Middle East. Hong Kong imports nearly all of its energy, and power generation is dominated by fossil fuels , making it particularly vulnerable to global market palpitations . It’s most apparent perhaps at the petrol pump, where prices are around HK$32 ($4.1) a liter. That works out to $15 a gallon — the world’s most expensive — whereas the US just crossed the $4 mark . But of course, that affects a relatively small minority. What everybody will certainly feel in the not-too-distant future is the impact on electricity bills, just as we head into peak air-conditioning season. Coal and gas make up more than 97% of the city’s source of electricity. Hong Kong’s power is provided by two private companies, CLP and HK Electric , which serve different areas of the city. Their contracts run through 2033 and allow the suppliers to reflect global fuel costs in the prices they charge consumers, with a time lag. That may happen from the middle of the year, according to Ortis Fan, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst based in Hong Kong. “For the electricity price, we will see a jump, but it will be in summertime,” Fan said. So that brings us to the demise of the Lamma windmill and the options the city has to ease its dependence on imported fossil fuels. Domestic ener...
AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images Starwood Property Trust ( STWD ) is a hybrid commercial mREIT primarily driven by real estate credit (and less so by spreads or corporate lending). So the story becomes less reliant on rate spreads and becomes heavily dependent on asset deployment and credit outcomes. The stock is now trading at a discount to its book value and still yields above 11% in dividend...
AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images Starwood Property Trust ( STWD ) is a hybrid commercial mREIT primarily driven by real estate credit (and less so by spreads or corporate lending). So the story becomes less reliant on rate spreads and becomes heavily dependent on asset deployment and credit outcomes. The stock is now trading at a discount to its book value and still yields above 11% in dividends. Most recent concerns surrounding its macro backdrop are of prolonged inflation (oil shock led) that keeps rates higher for longer, and more importantly tests credit quality. We are already talking about stagflation which delays real estate recovery, in addition to non-accruals pressure and caps overall earnings potential. The most recent quarterly data do not show need for caution right away though. Dividends are well-covered by distributable earnings. There are no widespread credit issues being reported either. Funding conditions also look robust with reasonably low leverage and ample liquidity available. Overall, I see multiple drivers that could support a Buy (not requiring macro tailwinds) at these discounted levels - new business segments like infrastructure and long term leases are already adding steady cash flow. In fact, if the credit situation deteriorates, Starwood can offset some of the downside with higher servicing income. That is, even though this is not the perfect macro setup for Starwood, the discount assumes worse outcomes than is indicated currently. And Starwood does not need a lot of macro tailwinds either at this point, so any normalization will only boost both a rerating and earnings growth scenario. Valuations and Implications At ~0.93x book value, Starwood is not trading at historical lows (like ~0.8x in mid-2023), but this is the highest discount seen since 2024. The ~0.8x valuations were reserved for an environment when markets were fearing a full blown real estate credit crisis, uncertain asset values and earnings. Can that happen again? That ...
Copper fell with other industrial metals after US President Donald Trump reiterated a threat to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure should negotiations fail to end the month-long war. The US will strike Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks and could target “each and every one” of the country’s power plants, Trump said in a primetime TV address. Though he also said the military ...
Copper fell with other industrial metals after US President Donald Trump reiterated a threat to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure should negotiations fail to end the month-long war. The US will strike Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks and could target “each and every one” of the country’s power plants, Trump said in a primetime TV address. Though he also said the military operation was “very close” to completion, the risks around escalation sent copper, aluminum and zinc lower. Oil futures surged . Metals markets have been shaken by supply disruptions from the Middle East and the growing prospect of an oil shock that batters the global economy and crushes demand. Copper’s decline in March was its biggest monthly drop since 2022. Aluminum, meanwhile, notched its highest close in four years on Wednesday after Emirates Global Aluminium , the Middle East’s top producer of the metal, said Iranian missiles and drones had forced one of its smelters to halt output. “Base metals including copper are now under threat of demand destruction, if global central bankers start to revert from their liquidity-easing cycle,” said Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at Oanda. Oil prices are the prime driver for markets, he said, and the upward trend for crude will remain intact as long as there is no clarity on flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In his speech on Wednesday, Trump urged allies who rely on Middle Eastern energy to resolve the near-closure of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically passed before the war. Copper declined 1% to $12,315 a ton at 10:59 a.m. Shanghai time. Aluminum also fell 1% to $3,497.50 a ton.
Goran13/iStock via Getty Images The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio currently stands at 0.91 - meaning there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. At the peak of post-COVID labor market tightness, that ratio exceeded 2. This structural difference is the strongest argument the Fed has for looking through the Iran War energy shock. The Federal Reserve and other central banks are facing the same d...
Goran13/iStock via Getty Images The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio currently stands at 0.91 - meaning there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. At the peak of post-COVID labor market tightness, that ratio exceeded 2. This structural difference is the strongest argument the Fed has for looking through the Iran War energy shock. The Federal Reserve and other central banks are facing the same decision: whether to “look through” the cost of living implications of the energy crisis resulting from the Iran War. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday said the US central bank can still afford a wait-and-see approach to this decision: “We’re getting now an energy shock: no one knows how big it will be. It’s way too early to know.” The “look through” strategy - holding rates steady through a supply-driven price spike - is textbook central bank response. As monetary policy works with a “long and variable lag,” the effect of those interest rate increases may not arrive early enough to help put a lid on the short-lived inflation surge, but only risks inflicting damage on the real economy well after the price pressure has already faded. The precondition for “looking through” is that the public’s inflation expectations stay anchored. This is the lesson macroeconomists learned from the 1970s stagflation: once households and firms expect elevated inflation to persist, they adjust their behavior - workers demand higher wages, retailers raise prices more frequently to offset rising costs. The Covid Experience While central bankers maintained that long-term inflation expectations were well anchored during the pandemic period, the US arguably experienced a short spell of wage-price spiral in 2021 and 2022. Consumer demand for goods and services was strong while the labor market was tight; the COVID- and Ukraine war-induced supply disruption bled into a genuine wage-price dynamic in 2021–22, forcing the Fed into one of its sharpest tightening cycles in decades. Those conditions don’t...
jonnysek/iStock via Getty Images The timing of entering a capital intensive reinvestment phase for Orla Mining ( ORLA ) could become a major drag for its Buy thesis as cost pressures rise and gold tailwinds become less certain (and certainly appearing to have less headroom compared to the pre-rally headroom we had in 2025). Overall, the upside odds look capped due to a potential environment of ris...
jonnysek/iStock via Getty Images The timing of entering a capital intensive reinvestment phase for Orla Mining ( ORLA ) could become a major drag for its Buy thesis as cost pressures rise and gold tailwinds become less certain (and certainly appearing to have less headroom compared to the pre-rally headroom we had in 2025). Overall, the upside odds look capped due to a potential environment of rising AISC and heavy capex commitments. Therefore, the valuation we have seen in the recent round of corrections could be just about fair - not really a trigger to initiate fresh Buys. I rate Orla as a Hold, given the optionality of some of its growth projects providing incremental earnings a few years down the line, but fresh Buying should wait for a more favorable macro of better prices. No Longer an Early Stage Growth Story Over the past three years (especially 2025), Orla has undergone a step change transformation. Revenue has scaled from ~$60m to ~$380m and EBITDA has also seen a commensurate jump during the past 3 years (chart below). Production has reached ~300k ounces annually. This is no longer an early stage discovery story - much of the gold price tailwind and acquisition led expansion (notably Musselwhite) has already played out. In fact, we are in territory where fears of a peak cycle setup are more relevant. The forward story therefore shifts from growth discovery to one where sustained margins and execution through a capital intensive growth phase becomes critical - both looking uncertain under current conditions. Data by YCharts Data by YCharts Margins Likely Peaking The current margins are strong because gold prices are supportive, especially since Q4 2025. However, Q4 AISC was at ~$1.55k/oz, higher than the full year average of ~$1.45k/oz and the guidance for 2026 seems to suggest further cost ramps toward an AISC range of ~$1.65k/oz at the midpoint. That means the EBITDA margin at ~65% as of Q4 is likely peaking. With around ~$100/oz increase in AISC, and a...
Oil tankers are docked nearby in Muscat, Oman, on March 9, 2026. Photo: IC photo The geopolitical shockwaves of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war have fundamentally upended global energy markets. For decades, oil pricing was a straightforward calculus of supply, demand, and production quotas. Today, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed the market into a hostage to extreme geopolitical risks...
Oil tankers are docked nearby in Muscat, Oman, on March 9, 2026. Photo: IC photo The geopolitical shockwaves of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war have fundamentally upended global energy markets. For decades, oil pricing was a straightforward calculus of supply, demand, and production quotas. Today, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed the market into a hostage to extreme geopolitical risks, rendering traditional economic models obsolete.
DancingMan/iStock via Getty Images By Min Joo Kang , Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan Government measures helped to absorb price shocks partly South Korea’s consumer price inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in March (vs. 2.0% in February, 2.3% market consensus). On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, below the market consensus of 0.6%. Rising global oil prices explained most of the increase, t...
DancingMan/iStock via Getty Images By Min Joo Kang , Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan Government measures helped to absorb price shocks partly South Korea’s consumer price inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in March (vs. 2.0% in February, 2.3% market consensus). On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, below the market consensus of 0.6%. Rising global oil prices explained most of the increase, though the impact was smaller than expected. Government measures such as the fuel price cap and food vouchers helped to reduce the impact on consumers. Transportation prices rose the most, by 5% YoY, compared to the previous month’s 1.1%. But food prices declined to 0.5% from the previous month’s 2.1%. The March figures indicate that the uptick in commodity prices has not yet broadened to other products or services. Excluding food and energy, core inflation edged down to 2.2% (vs. 2.3% in February, 2.1% market consensus). Although today’s inflation increase came in below expectations, we expect the recent rise in energy prices to exert a stronger influence in the months ahead. Fuel costs continued to rise despite the price cap. We also expect currency impacts to feed through to domestic prices in the coming months. Fuel price cap measures helped to limit the gasoline price hike Source: CEIC, Opinet BoK watch Price pressures remain relatively contained due to government support, even as domestic demand is poised to weaken. Thus, the Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.5% at the April meeting. The BoK will likely take a wait-and-see approach as it evaluates whether external shocks are contained or intensify. It will also consider the impact on growth and financial stability. BoK will take a wait-and-see stance at its April meeting Source: CEIC, ING estimates Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does ...
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) announced its next-generation chip platform, Vera Rubin, in January this year, promising major cost reductions for training artificial intelligence (AI) models and running inference applications. Nvidia claims that the Vera Rubin platform can reduce the cost of AI inference by 90% compared to the previous-generation Blackwell platform. Additionally, it can lower the number of...
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) announced its next-generation chip platform, Vera Rubin, in January this year, promising major cost reductions for training artificial intelligence (AI) models and running inference applications. Nvidia claims that the Vera Rubin platform can reduce the cost of AI inference by 90% compared to the previous-generation Blackwell platform. Additionally, it can lower the number of graphics processing units (GPUs) needed to train AI models by 75%. These major gains explain why customers are probably lining up to purchase Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips. CEO Jensen Huang recently pointed out that Nvidia has a whopping $1 trillion worth of combined orders for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027. That's a major increase when compared to Nvidia's previous guidance of $500 billion in combined orders for both these chip platforms through 2026. So, Nvidia stock could get a major boost when the Rubin chips hit the market in the second half of 2026. Continue reading
China Tests World's Heaviest 7-Ton Cargo Drone With 1,850-Mile Range For Recon Ops Authored by Aamir Khollam via Interesting Engineering , China has pushed further into heavy unmanned aviation with the first flight of the Changying-8 (CY-8), which it claims is the world’s heaviest cargo drone. China's Changying-8 (CY-8) cargo drone. The aircraft combines high payload capacity with short-runway per...
China Tests World's Heaviest 7-Ton Cargo Drone With 1,850-Mile Range For Recon Ops Authored by Aamir Khollam via Interesting Engineering , China has pushed further into heavy unmanned aviation with the first flight of the Changying-8 (CY-8), which it claims is the world’s heaviest cargo drone. China's Changying-8 (CY-8) cargo drone. The aircraft combines high payload capacity with short-runway performance, targeting logistics operations across remote, high-altitude, and island regions. The newly tested Changying-8 (CY-8) blends high payload capacity with short runway performance, signaling a push toward flexible, all-terrain aerial supply systems. The aircraft completed its first test flight on Tuesday in Zhengzhou, located in central China’s Henan province. It lifted off after a short ground run of 280 meters and stayed airborne for about 30 minutes. According to state broadcaster CCTV , engineers used the flight to verify key onboard systems, including avionics, propulsion, and intelligent flight controls. Built for heavy payloads The CY-8 stands out for its size and carrying capability. It reaches a maximum take-off weight of 7 tonnes. The drone itself weighs 3.5 tonnes and can carry an equal load. Its airframe stretches 17 meters long with a wingspan of 25 meters. Engineers designed a fully enclosed cargo bay with a volume of 18 cubic meters. The aircraft includes both front and rear access doors, allowing faster turnaround during loading and unloading operations. CCTV described the platform as an “unmanned aerial heavy truck.” The drone relies on twin turboprop engines and supports short take-off and landing operations. This design allows it to operate on basic runways with limited infrastructure. “This cargo drone is highly adaptable to its environment, uses twin turboprop engines, and has the ability to take off and land on simple runways in high-altitude areas, as well as perform short take-offs and landings,” said Cai Hangqing, chairman of Beijing Northern ...