Gr8ph1cs/iStock via Getty Images Last April, Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) reported its first-quarter results , and that alone makes it a good moment to analyze the company’s current situation. But there are even more reasons, because the results they reported , in another context, would have been enough to reward the stock price. Revenue grew +9% YoY to $6,234M, reported OCF was $1,495M, and net incom...
Gr8ph1cs/iStock via Getty Images Last April, Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) reported its first-quarter results , and that alone makes it a good moment to analyze the company’s current situation. But there are even more reasons, because the results they reported , in another context, would have been enough to reward the stock price. Revenue grew +9% YoY to $6,234M, reported OCF was $1,495M, and net income attributable to common stock of $881M practically tripled from the prior year. In addition, FCX reached an agreement with insurers for the mud rush last September that forced the Grasberg mine to shut down for 6 months, and for which they will collect the maximum amount of the policy during the second quarter, worth $700M. However, in this asset is what, for me, is the other side of the coin this quarter. Management revised the 5-year forecast for the Grasberg district downward, cutting copper by 9% and gold by 7%, with the greatest impact concentrated in 2026 and 2027. The cause was that during the six months the mine was halted, water filtered into the accumulated rock, and now the proportion of wet material has increased from 30% to 45%, which means the team will produce below capacity. So, to solve this situation, they are going to install smart gates in the chutes that load the trains, which open or close the passage depending on the consistency of the material passing through them. For this, I consider the necessary CapEx ridiculous, around $60M or $70M; the problem will be the manufacturing and installation time. So until the end of 2027, or with luck the middle of 2027, the previous production pace will not return. In principle, the market did not react well to the news based on how the stock price behaved, but it already seems to have normalized, and the stock continues its path back toward the highs. In the end, this is still a company that provides approximately 70% of the refined copper consumed in the United States, a figure that the Trump administration itse...