Whether or not a lasting peace deal can be reached, the war and its consequences are reshaping the Middle East, writes international editor Jeremy Bowen.
Whether or not a lasting peace deal can be reached, the war and its consequences are reshaping the Middle East, writes international editor Jeremy Bowen.
Uncertainty is still swirling around global tech supply chains, even as the US and Iran enter a two-week ceasefire. Reva Goujon, director at the policy and economic research firm Rhodium Group, discusses the situation with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow on “Bloomberg Tech.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Uncertainty is still swirling around global tech supply chains, even as the US and Iran enter a two-week ceasefire. Reva Goujon, director at the policy and economic research firm Rhodium Group, discusses the situation with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow on “Bloomberg Tech.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Wall Street thinks it has President Donald Trump's brinkmanship figured out — and is trading it accordingly. A growing cohort of investors has come to believe Trump 's escalation tactics follow a familiar script. The so-called TACO trade — shorthand for Trump Always Chickens Out — has increasingly shaped positioning, with traders treating escalation itself as a buy signal, stepping in on weakness ...
Wall Street thinks it has President Donald Trump's brinkmanship figured out — and is trading it accordingly. A growing cohort of investors has come to believe Trump 's escalation tactics follow a familiar script. The so-called TACO trade — shorthand for Trump Always Chickens Out — has increasingly shaped positioning, with traders treating escalation itself as a buy signal, stepping in on weakness in anticipation of an eventual off-ramp. Trump paused planned strikes on Iran just minutes before an 8 p.m. ET deadline, halting a five-week conflict that had disrupted a crucial global energy artery. Stocks surged and oil prices tumbled following the announcement, but market positioning leading into it suggested investors had already anticipated the move. The S & P 500 had just posted its first weekly gain in six, rising 3.4%, while volatility markets showed little sign of stress. S & P 500 options reflected only a modest risk premium into the deadline, according to Barclays. Earlier Tuesday, Trump warned that "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." Yet the S & P 500 eked out a modest gain on the day, underscoring how investors have grown accustomed to looking through increasingly extreme threats. "I think what we have seen is President Trump tends to offer up or threaten maximalist position. And what the market is learning is, the more extreme the position is, the more likely a compromise is going to occur," said Ed Mills, managing director and Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. That view has been reinforced by widely circulated frameworks, including analysis from The Kobeissi Letter , which outlines a repeatable cycle: escalation sparks market stress, pressure builds, and de-escalation ultimately drives a sharp rebound in risk assets. "Systematic investors are operating in what may be the most profitable market conditions in history right now," Adam Kobeissi, founder of The Kobeissi letter, said in an X post. Each bout of geopoli...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Background O-I Glass, Inc. ( OI ), whose historical roots encompass a time span of over 120 years, is currently one of the behemoths in the glass container manufacturing space (in fact, OI management is on record stating they are the largest player), where it operates 64 manufacturing plants in 18 different countries (although the sale of its products t...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Background O-I Glass, Inc. ( OI ), whose historical roots encompass a time span of over 120 years, is currently one of the behemoths in the glass container manufacturing space (in fact, OI management is on record stating they are the largest player), where it operates 64 manufacturing plants in 18 different countries (although the sale of its products takes place in 74 different countries). O-I Glass, which specializes in glass containers for alcoholic beverages, and glass packaging for food, beverages, and pharmaceuticals, sells its produce directly to the who’s who of food and beverage manufacturers (it also sells indirectly through a distribution channel), particularly the likes of Anheuser-Busch InBev ( BUD ), Carlsberg ( CABGY ), Coca-Cola ( KO ), Diageo ( DEO ), Heineken ( HEINY ), Nestle ( NSRGY ), amongst others (also includes plenty of non-MNC local clients). YCharts Nonetheless, despite O-I Glass’s strong credentials in the glass container industry, the market hasn’t quite lapped up the OI stock (with a market-cap of $1.58B) which has experienced a great deal of volatility over the past year, and has eventually ended up grossly underperforming (down by a low single digit percentage) other material stocks from the small-cap terrain (that are up by over 70% on average)! Should investors be perturbed by OI’s massive underperformance and stay away, or is there scope of a revival ahead? Troubling Topline and Energy Cost Headwinds Could Persist Firstly, it must be said that when OI reports earnings at the end of this month , investors shouldn’t expect a reversal in the dispiriting topline trend (with both volumes and pricing trending lower). For broader context, note that OI has been incurring declining annual revenue growth since the latter quarter of 2023 (basically 9 straight quarters of YoY decline on the trot), and it now looks like it could be 10 quarters in a row (consensus suggests it could well be even 11 qua...
lcva2/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Microsoft ( MSFT ) has kept on losing market value since I last rated it a Strong Buy back in late January. It lost around 13.3% while the S&P only lost 4.6%. Since the last quarterly earnings, Microsoft has been undergoing a valuation reset in a way, making it a laggard in the market and compared to its mega-cap peers, though I believe that it ...
lcva2/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Microsoft ( MSFT ) has kept on losing market value since I last rated it a Strong Buy back in late January. It lost around 13.3% while the S&P only lost 4.6%. Since the last quarterly earnings, Microsoft has been undergoing a valuation reset in a way, making it a laggard in the market and compared to its mega-cap peers, though I believe that it leaves us with a great opportunity to buy as this has rendered Microsoft relatively cheap compared to its peers and prospects. Current Dynamics The growth story is tied to Agentic AI and its rise compared to “simple” Generative AI experimentation. This transition is addressing the currently slow adoption rate of early Copilot versions, which o nly stood at 15MM subscriptions out of 450MM commercial seats . By shifting toward these autonomous agents, that are capable of executing multi-step workflows, the company could unlock a higher tier of enterprise value and revenue potential. As such, Microsoft just unveiled its Microsoft 365 E7 Frontier Suite , which will be available at the start of May. This bundle will contain the foundational security of E5 with the full power of Copilot and the new Agent 365 control plane. This is a drastic shift from per-user licensing to now value-added AI subscriptions where the premium price is justified by the automation of workflows. I will be closely looking at adoption to see if companies are truly getting into that agentic wave of AI. At the same time of this announcement, MSFT introduced Copilot Cowork (Similar to Claude Cowork), allowing AI to function as an active team member rather than a traditional chatbot. Cowork is able to perform long-running and multi-step functions that unfold over time, such as cleaning up calendars for example, acting as a real digital secretary. These functions are powered by Work IQ, which is a new organizational memory layer that understands communication patterns and past decisions. One of the main reaso...
As a doctor who has worked in a conflict zone, I’ve seen spaces that were once considered sacrosanct become fair game in war. This has to end Easter weekend marked one of the most intense moments so far of Israel’s war on Lebanon. At around 2pm on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces bombed a densely populated, residential area near the Rafik Hariri University hospital, Lebanon’s largest public hospi...
As a doctor who has worked in a conflict zone, I’ve seen spaces that were once considered sacrosanct become fair game in war. This has to end Easter weekend marked one of the most intense moments so far of Israel’s war on Lebanon. At around 2pm on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces bombed a densely populated, residential area near the Rafik Hariri University hospital, Lebanon’s largest public hospital, killing at least five people and wounding 50 others . When I worked at the hospital in 2020, I treated the most vulnerable people in Lebanese society: migrant workers, stateless Palestinians, Syrian refugees. What happened on Sunday is consistent with what seems to be Israel’s broader strategy in Lebanon: human rights organisations and medical workers say the IDF is crippling healthcare infrastructure, targeting hospitals and medics, sometimes when they are sitting in ambulances or in first aid centres. Israel is also forcing the displacement of civilians on a large scale, rendering parts of the country unlivable, while Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that the two-week Iran ceasefire doesn’t apply to Lebanon tells us that this is far from over. Seema Jilani is a paediatric physician based in Texas and a member of the Council of Foreign Relations Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here . Continue reading...
META上涨 8.37% Meta 平台公司于周三发布了 Muse Spark ，这是其去年为在人工智能竞赛中追赶竞争对手而重金组建的团队所研发的首款人工智能模型。 美国科技巨头正面临压力，需要证明其巨额人工智能投入能够获得回报。对 Meta 而言，赌注尤其高昂：该公司去年以 143 亿美元的协议聘请了 Scale AI 首席执行官亚历克斯・王，并为新组建的超智能团队部分工程师开出了数亿美元薪酬待...
META上涨 8.37% Meta 平台公司于周三发布了 Muse Spark ，这是其去年为在人工智能竞赛中追赶竞争对手而重金组建的团队所研发的首款人工智能模型。 美国科技巨头正面临压力，需要证明其巨额人工智能投入能够获得回报。对 Meta 而言，赌注尤其高昂：该公司去年以 143 亿美元的协议聘请了 Scale AI 首席执行官亚历克斯・王，并为新组建的超智能团队部分工程师开出了数亿美元薪酬待遇。 Muse Spark 是该团队全新系列模型中的首款产品，该团队致力于研发 智力超越人类 的机器。 该模型初期仅在使用率较低的 Meta AI 应用程序及网站上线，并将在未来数周内，取代目前支撑 WhatsApp、Instagram、Facebook 及 Meta 系列智能眼镜聊天功能的现有 Llama 模型。 该公司在一篇博客文章中表示：“这款初始模型在设计上轻量化、运行快速，同时足以对科学、数学和健康领域的复杂问题进行推理。它是一个强大的基础模型，下一代产品已在研发中。” Meta 并未披露该模型的参数量 —— 这是对比人工智能系统算力水平的关键指标。Muse Spark 隶属于内部代号为 “Avocado” 的模型系列。 该模型可协助用户完成多项任务，例如通过照片估算一餐的卡路里，或将杯子图像叠加到货架上预览摆放效果，而部分竞品已具备类似功能。 Meta 还推出了 沉思模式（Contemplating mode） ，该模式可并行运行多个 AI 智能体以提升推理能力，使 Muse Spark 能够实现类似 谷歌 Gemini Deep Think 与 OpenAI GPT Pro 的深度思考模式。 该公司押注，将超智能技术应用于日常个人任务，将有助于触达其社交媒体平台逾 35 亿用户，有望相比用户规模较小的竞争对手获得优势。 责任编辑：郭明煜
Luis Alvarez Nine of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest daily gains since President Donald Trump returned to office have come on days when tariff or Iran-related fears eased, according to analysis highlighted by Charlie Bilello , citing columnist Spencer Jakab . “What started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that ‘Trump always chickens out’ has become a consistently profitable pattern,” Jakab said, noting t...
Luis Alvarez Nine of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest daily gains since President Donald Trump returned to office have come on days when tariff or Iran-related fears eased, according to analysis highlighted by Charlie Bilello , citing columnist Spencer Jakab . “What started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that ‘Trump always chickens out’ has become a consistently profitable pattern,” Jakab said, noting that the market has repeatedly surged on signs of policy pullback. Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, shared Jakab's analysis on X. The data spans more than 300 trading sessions and points to a clear pattern in recent market moves. Equity rallies have clustered around moments of policy relief, as investors respond quickly to any signs of de-escalation on trade or geopolitics. Jakab’s findings also show how concentrated returns have been. An investor holding stocks only on these relief-driven days would have generated gains of about 52%, compared with roughly 12% from a buy-and-hold strategy over the same period. The trend underscores the extent to which markets are being driven by shifts in policy expectations rather than fundamentals, with relief rather than escalation emerging as the key catalyst for outsized gains. Here is a chart posted by Bilello: X More on markets 5 Markets Getting Pummeled Right Now A Ceasefire With A Bitter Aftertaste For The U.S. Bear Market Setup: 9 Signals Aligning - VIX Not Reflecting It Job growth may be 'stifled by innovation' Jefferies' Zervos says—CNBC interview Trump imposes 50% tariff on countries supplying arms to Iran
LilliDay/iStock via Getty Images Our national debt is 125% of GDP. It’s the highest level ever and headed toward even higher levels. The interest rate on our debt is also increasing, compounding the interest expense problem. Our debt spiral can’t be stopped. Protect yourself. Interest expense As shown in the following graph, we are paying 2.55% on our $39 Trillion national debt, which is $995 bill...
LilliDay/iStock via Getty Images Our national debt is 125% of GDP. It’s the highest level ever and headed toward even higher levels. The interest rate on our debt is also increasing, compounding the interest expense problem. Our debt spiral can’t be stopped. Protect yourself. Interest expense As shown in the following graph, we are paying 2.55% on our $39 Trillion national debt, which is $995 billion, making it our 3 rd largest expense behind Social Security and Medicare. 2.55% is well underneath (by 1.15%) the current yield curve, so the blended rate will increase if the Federal Reserve leaves interest as-is or higher. Treasury, Debt Clock, Author The Treasury increases its borrowing by $2 Trillion each year , which means maturing issues are replaced by bonds yielding at least 3.7% currently, driving up blended interest expense above the current 2.55% and increasing our individual share above the current $357,000. If the blended rate reaches 5%, debt service will become our largest expense. The Fed could move to lower interest rates, but this further increases inflation that is already on an upward trajectory. Double whammy The amount of our debt is increasing AND the interest on that debt is also increasing, leading us to question how high is too high. Part of the answer lies in the fact that our current debt at 125% of GDP is its highest ever, even higher than after WWII. Highest ever “feels” like it’s probably too high. Something will break, like monetizing the debt, basically printing money and flaming inflation. St Louis Fed Adding to this concern, President Trump has requested approval to increase National Defense spending well above the currently budgeted $933 Billion. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have cost more than $700 Billion so far and growing , so not much left in a $933 Billion budget. Protecting against inflation Some believe that stocks protect against inflation, but stocks are actually not a good inflation hedge. As summarized in this JP Morgan art...