Oil rebounded after its biggest one-day drop since April 2020, as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon threatened to derail the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate traded near $97 a barrel, after slumping 14% on Wednesday, while Brent closed below $95. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported that passage of oil tankers throug...
Oil rebounded after its biggest one-day drop since April 2020, as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon threatened to derail the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate traded near $97 a barrel, after slumping 14% on Wednesday, while Brent closed below $95. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported that passage of oil tankers through the strait were halted after Israeli strikes, although US Vice President JD Vance countered that assertion, saying “we are seeing signs that the straits are starting to reopen.” The near-halt of traffic through the waterway — through which about a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas flowed before the US and Israeli first struck Iran at the end of February — has caused the biggest-ever oil market disruption . Vance will lead a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran on Saturday morning local time. “This isn’t over just yet,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “We will need to see a full opening of the strait with no obstacles before we see crude prices in the low $80s for WTI. And I don’t see that in the next two weeks.” Sporadic fighting continued throughout the region, including the Israeli moves in Lebanon and Iranian strikes on Gulf states. There’s disagreement between Tehran and the American-Israeli side over whether the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said in a statement posted on X that three clauses of the ceasefire proposal have been violated so far. Even once Hormuz transit picks up, the return of energy supplies won’t be instant. Output has been reduced at oil and gas fields, while refineries have curtailed production or shut down. Some of those will take weeks — or possibly longer — to return to normal. “We’re still far from over in Iran,” said Carl Larry, an oil and gas analyst at Enverus. “Every day remains an adventure, but $90 lo...
With reports from Gulf nations of continued drone strikes , Israel’s insistence it can keep bombing Lebanon and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reportedly at a standstill , it would seem Donald Trump’s dramatic announcement last night of a ceasefire in the war with Iran might have been premature . In fact, some Israelis say they want the war to continue to fully eliminate the regional threat they ...
With reports from Gulf nations of continued drone strikes , Israel’s insistence it can keep bombing Lebanon and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reportedly at a standstill , it would seem Donald Trump’s dramatic announcement last night of a ceasefire in the war with Iran might have been premature . In fact, some Israelis say they want the war to continue to fully eliminate the regional threat they say is posed by Tehran. But on Wednesday it was Lebanon that Israel was bombing, its largest assault on that country since the start of its recent invasion. Israeli attacks said to be aimed at Iran-aligned Hezbollah have killed at least 1,500 people there since the war began. Iran today pushed back on any de-escalation of the war that doesn’t include Lebanon. “The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit : the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post . What You Need to Know Today Among the many long-term consequences of the war, including potentially elevating Russia and China at the expense of American credibility , a big one may be the continued splintering of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Trump has attacked NATO for not assisting with the conflict or its consequences, adding to his long list of grievances concerning the defensive alliance. Now the US president is again talking about leaving NATO (though he does not have the legal power to do so ). One man, however, has been making it his mission to preserve NATO’s integrity, in part by showing some support for Trump. But as the grim economic and political fallout of the war becomes clear, Secretary General Mark Rutte’s strategy is coming under fire . As Trump Bullies NATO, Europe Questions Rutte In NATO’s glass and steel corridors, calls and texts were coming in from European governments: Mark Rutte needs to tone it down. This isn’t our war. Read more It’s been said that no one profits from a prolonged ...
Whether the US-Israeli war on Iran wraps up quickly or drags on, the repercussions will be felt for years, reshaping warfare, geopolitics and energy security as well as how the world sees the United States and its tactical and strategic capabilities. In the final instalment of a three-part series, we look at the move away from precision strikes on limited military assets. When Iran’s South Pars ga...
Whether the US-Israeli war on Iran wraps up quickly or drags on, the repercussions will be felt for years, reshaping warfare, geopolitics and energy security as well as how the world sees the United States and its tactical and strategic capabilities. In the final instalment of a three-part series, we look at the move away from precision strikes on limited military assets. When Iran’s South Pars gas field was hit at the start of the US-Israeli war on the country, Tehran retaliated with attacks on...
The Trump administration wants to require health insurance companies to hand over troves of sensitive, detailed, and identifiable medical records from millions of federal workers and retirees, along with their families. The move is raising immediate concern from legal and health policy experts, according to a report by KFF Health News . The unprecedented proposal was quietly revealed in a short no...
The Trump administration wants to require health insurance companies to hand over troves of sensitive, detailed, and identifiable medical records from millions of federal workers and retirees, along with their families. The move is raising immediate concern from legal and health policy experts, according to a report by KFF Health News . The unprecedented proposal was quietly revealed in a short notice from the Office of Personnel Management in December, KFF notes. OPM said it is seeking "service use and cost data," which would be harvested from medical records such as "medical claims, pharmacy claims, encounter data, and provider data." That list could give the federal government access to prescriptions employees have filled and their diagnoses, as well as provider information, doctors' notes, treatments, and visit summaries, among other sensitive health information. The collection would affect more than 8 million Americans and harvest data from 65 insurance companies, according to KFF. Read full article Comments
Exxon Warns Of $6.5 Billion Hit From Iran War As Q1 Earnings Set To Print Slightly Below Consensus In an early clue how the Iran war will impact energy earnings, ExxonMobil warned of a $6.5bn hit to Q1 earnings from the Iran war but said the bulk of this was the result of unfavorable timing for its accounting of hedging contracts, which would be offset as underlying transactions were eventually co...
Exxon Warns Of $6.5 Billion Hit From Iran War As Q1 Earnings Set To Print Slightly Below Consensus In an early clue how the Iran war will impact energy earnings, ExxonMobil warned of a $6.5bn hit to Q1 earnings from the Iran war but said the bulk of this was the result of unfavorable timing for its accounting of hedging contracts, which would be offset as underlying transactions were eventually completed. The US supermajor also said that global oil and gas production would be 6% lower in the first three months of the year than in the fourth quarter of 2025 because of attacks on facilities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in which it holds ownership stakes. According to Exxon's 8K filed this morning , Goldman calculated that the company's adjusted EPS at the mid-point came in at ~$1.80 vs. consensus closer to $1.90 and Q4 levels closer to $1.71. As shown in the chart below, there was sequential improvement in Upstream driven by higher liquids prices , sequential declines in Downstream due to higher maintenance and relatively flat performance in Chemicals . Volume disruptions at Exxon's production and refining businesses would deliver a $400mn to $800mn hit to earnings, while trading losses incurred because of a failure to deliver physical cargoes hedged with financial derivatives would cost another $600mn to $800mn, the company said in a statement. Separately, the company provided a number of strategic updates, including: (1) the Permian likely producing at 1.8 mn boe/d in 2026 , (2) first gas at Golden Pass having been achieved on March 30 , and (3) that the Middle East production negatively impacted Q1 Upstream volumes by 6% compared to Q4 levels, with the overall Middle East portfolio representing 20% of Upstream production (albeit a lower level of segment earnings). As an aside, the quarterly comparison was challenging given disruptions in the Middle East, and large timing effects, the latter of which are excluded for the purposes of comparison. Exxon has on...
Levi Strauss CEO Michelle Gass discusses the company's strong start to the year, reporting growth across multiple geographies, categories, genders and sales channels. She attributes this momentum to the strength of the Levi's brand, product innovation and effective execution by the team. She speaks on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
Levi Strauss CEO Michelle Gass discusses the company's strong start to the year, reporting growth across multiple geographies, categories, genders and sales channels. She attributes this momentum to the strength of the Levi's brand, product innovation and effective execution by the team. She speaks on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
Joa_Souza/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images It has already been more than a year since I covered Banco Bradesco S.A. ( BBD ). At the time, my rating for the stock was a structural Sell , signaling that even though there was potential in the short term, the long-term potential was not compelling. Here is an excerpt from the analysis: “If the investment horizon is short, like a few quarters or a fe...
Joa_Souza/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images It has already been more than a year since I covered Banco Bradesco S.A. ( BBD ). At the time, my rating for the stock was a structural Sell , signaling that even though there was potential in the short term, the long-term potential was not compelling. Here is an excerpt from the analysis: “If the investment horizon is short, like a few quarters or a few years, Bradesco stock could be a name to outperform the Brazilian banking sector. This is because its price-to-book is actually deviating from the average, so if the bank is effective in regaining its ROE, this should generate immediate value through multiple expansion (and increased net income).” I was already aware that this could happen, but to be honest, I did not think it would happen so fast and in such a drastic way, and of course, if it was that obvious and if this was my base scenario, my rating at that time would not be a Sell. In this period of a little more than one year, the stock has advanced 88%, and this, with dividends, gave a total return of something close to 100%. But even though I recognize that the Sell rating was not so accurate at that time, I still think Bradesco is hardly attractive for the long-term investor. Bradesco: It Managed To Improve The Bradesco of one year ago is very different from the Bradesco of today. Even though the stock went up so much, the turnaround is working. And this transformation you can see in several indicators, in the operational numbers of the loan portfolio, in the revenue, and in the margins. For instance, the revenue went from ~R$28 billion in Q1 of 2024 to R$36 billion in the last quarter (Q4 2025). YoY it was a growth of 10%. Several revenues/income managed to grow at a pace close to or above that: consortium, cards, capital markets, asset management, everything growing in a very healthy way. But what caught my attention the most was that while the top line was improving, the operating expenses grew ~3.3% YoY, or ...
monsitj/iStock via Getty Images Gold rose for the seventh time in the past eight sessions after President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, sending crude oil and the dollar down. Analysts said the ceasefire could help roll back some inflationary pressures and perhaps open the door for interest rate reductions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which would be bullish for gold. The minutes ...
monsitj/iStock via Getty Images Gold rose for the seventh time in the past eight sessions after President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, sending crude oil and the dollar down. Analysts said the ceasefire could help roll back some inflationary pressures and perhaps open the door for interest rate reductions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which would be bullish for gold. The minutes from the Fed's March 17-18 meeting indicated an increasing number of policymakers believed rate hikes might be needed to counter inflation that continued to exceed the central bank's 2% target, particularly given the impact of the Iran war. Bullion had climbed above $4,800/oz, then trimmed gains after Iran's parliament speaker said the ceasefire deal with the U.S. had been violated. "Gold's push above $4,800 reflects a recalibration of risk, rather than a full regime shift," Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri said in a note. "The move higher suggests markets are now pricing in a lower probability of prolonged disruption while still retaining a meaningful discount versus the pre-Iran setup.” Gold remains highly sensitive to political developments in the near term, Assiri said. "The current ceasefire provides a window of relief, but it is conditional and fragile. Any sign of breakdown, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, would likely reintroduce volatility." Front-month Comex gold ( XAUUSD:CUR ) for April delivery closed up 2% to $4,749.50/oz, and front-month Comex April silver ( XAGUSD:CUR ) jumped 4.7% to $75.224/oz, snapping a three-day losing streak. ETFs: ( GLD ), ( GDX ), ( GDXJ ), ( IAU ), ( NUGT ), ( PHYS ), ( GLDM ), ( AAAU ), ( SGOL ), ( DUST ), ( RING ), ( BAR ), ( OUNZ ), ( SLV ), ( PSLV ), ( SIVR ), ( SIL ), ( SILJ ) More on gold and silver Gold: Wars And Jungle Economics Commodities: Oil Slumps Below $100 After U.S., Iran Agree To 2-Week Ceasefire Stocks From Liberation Day To Iran War
American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) , one of the biggest U.S. airlines, closed Wednesday at $11.41, up 5.55%. The stock advanced as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and lower oil prices improved sentiment toward airline profitability. Trading volume reached 100.3 million shares, coming in about 53% above its three-month average of 65.6 million shares. American Airlines Group IPO'd in 2005 and has fallen...
American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) , one of the biggest U.S. airlines, closed Wednesday at $11.41, up 5.55%. The stock advanced as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and lower oil prices improved sentiment toward airline profitability. Trading volume reached 100.3 million shares, coming in about 53% above its three-month average of 65.6 million shares. American Airlines Group IPO'd in 2005 and has fallen 46% since going public. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) gained 2.51% to finish Wednesday at 6,783, while the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) advanced 2.80% to close at 22,635. Among airlines peers, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) closed up 3.75% at $68.08, and United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) finished up 7.84% at $96.30 as investors reassessed fuel costs and geopolitical risks. Continue reading
Cinefootage Visuals/iStock via Getty Images I hope those who invested alongside me in the nuclear energy sector over the past few years heeded my warnings—that position sizing is more important than security selection and that the best course of action was to use the NUKZ ETF for most of one's exposure. Broad indexes are great for this kind of trade, where an individual firm's volatility can be ve...
Cinefootage Visuals/iStock via Getty Images I hope those who invested alongside me in the nuclear energy sector over the past few years heeded my warnings—that position sizing is more important than security selection and that the best course of action was to use the NUKZ ETF for most of one's exposure. Broad indexes are great for this kind of trade, where an individual firm's volatility can be very harmful to a portfolio. There were still some individual stocks I discussed here on Seeking Alpha, mostly advanced reactor firms like NANO Nuclear Energy ( NNE ), but they have fared far worse than the ETF since risk began fleeing the market back in October. This is one where my advice applies doubly so, and I think I made that fairly clear in my last coverage, also back in October . Not much has changed about my core long-term thesis since then—just the price of the stock, which I published at the top by happenstance—although things are changing within NNE itself that warrant renewed coverage. The market went from risk-on to risk-off quickly, and nuclear reactor firms have been in drawdown since. This has been a time when I've added, albeit slowly and lightly. Data by YCharts These kinds of stocks are the reason I make those mentions of position sizing; it might still be a winner in the long term, but if a decline in price like this shakes you out, you'll never hold it long enough for it to become a winner. You can avoid that by owning a small position so that large percentage drawdowns end up as small nominal drawdowns. NANO Nuclear Energy Overview Quickly, the bull case for advanced nuclear reactors is that they strip away many of the issues with large reactors while also providing a workable solution to the rapidly approaching gap between AI energy demand and energy grid capacity that doesn't involve burning endless amounts of coal (we will still need lots of natural gas power even with nuclear everywhere, I imagine). NNE produces an even smaller variant of the “smal...
gorodenkoff/iStock via Getty Images Shares of Legence Corp. ( LGN ) on Wednesday rose after a large secondary offering tied to a stake sale by Blackstone ( BX ) drew significantly more investor interest than available shares, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The $723 million transaction was multiple times oversubscribed, with demand reaching roughly five times the s...
gorodenkoff/iStock via Getty Images Shares of Legence Corp. ( LGN ) on Wednesday rose after a large secondary offering tied to a stake sale by Blackstone ( BX ) drew significantly more investor interest than available shares, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The $723 million transaction was multiple times oversubscribed, with demand reaching roughly five times the size of the offering after it was increased during the marketing process. Allocation favors long-term investors Most of the shares were distributed to long-only investors, along with some existing shareholders. The identities of the investors weren't disclosed. Shares rise following pricing The offering was priced at $54 per share, representing about an 8% discount to the company’s closing price on April 2, the last trading day before the deal was marketed earlier in the week. Following the sale, Legence ( LGN ) shares rose about 2.4% in morning trading in New York, reaching approximately $56.28. Transaction reflects continued investor interest The strong demand for the offering suggests continued investor appetite for shares in the building systems and HVAC services sector, even as large shareholders look to reduce positions through block trades. Blackstone’s ( BX ) sale comes as private equity firms continue to monetize holdings amid fluctuating market conditions, with pricing discounts commonly used to attract institutional buyers in large secondary offerings. More on Legence Legence Corp. (LGN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Legence Corp.'s Surge Justifies A Respectful Downgrade Legence prices upsized $723M secondary offering at $54.00 a share Historical earnings data for Legence Financial information for Legence
Levi's CEO Michelle Gass said that both celebrity ad campaigns and organic pop culture moments have contributed to Levi's boosted outlook as the jeans brand collaborated with Beyonce and were featured on the fashion forward FX series 'Love Story.' Gass also discussed supply chain consideration as US-based companies face higher transportation costs and tariffs on manufacturing. (Source: Bloomberg)
Levi's CEO Michelle Gass said that both celebrity ad campaigns and organic pop culture moments have contributed to Levi's boosted outlook as the jeans brand collaborated with Beyonce and were featured on the fashion forward FX series 'Love Story.' Gass also discussed supply chain consideration as US-based companies face higher transportation costs and tariffs on manufacturing. (Source: Bloomberg)