Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what’s being traded on those platforms, there’s a whole range of stuff from elections to sports to real economic outcomes, to totally gonzo random stuff, like who will win the next season of Big Brother. So far, sports is where a lot of the money is. B...
Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what’s being traded on those platforms, there’s a whole range of stuff from elections to sports to real economic outcomes, to totally gonzo random stuff, like who will win the next season of Big Brother. So far, sports is where a lot of the money is. But at least in theory, prediction markets could be a popular instrument for professional, institutio
Thomas Peterffy , the billionaire founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers Group Inc., has an answer to the insider-trading concerns dogging prediction markets: stop trying to prevent it — for the good of society. Investors everywhere have been exposed to such shenanigans since the dawn of markets. Not only is preventing it futile, he says, assets get to the correct price faster when people do ...
Thomas Peterffy , the billionaire founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers Group Inc., has an answer to the insider-trading concerns dogging prediction markets: stop trying to prevent it — for the good of society. Investors everywhere have been exposed to such shenanigans since the dawn of markets. Not only is preventing it futile, he says, assets get to the correct price faster when people do it. “I’m in favor of not having any rules against insider trading. I would like all the information out there as soon as it’s available,” he said about all markets — not just predictions-based ones — in an interview on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “Because look, as a society, we are better off knowing as soon as possible anything that is knowable.” His comments come in the midst of a renewed push from lawmakers and regulators to take on insider trading after a number of profitable and suspiciously timed trades on prediction markets like Polymarket. Just this week, fresh Polymarket bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran raised questions about whether bettors were trading on privileged information. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently said it would use its powers to root out the problem in prediction markets given the boom in concerns about dubious bets. Peterffy’s willingness to go against the grain is particularly notable because his company runs its own event betting platform, ForecastEx, which allows customers to wager on elections, the weather and economic outcomes. A number of prediction-market advocates have said in the past that the platforms could be useful as a way to surface inside information. But there has been less willingness to defend that idea as scrutiny has ramped up. Polymarket and Kalshi have both recently announced efforts to confront illegal trading. Peterffy, an influential pioneer of automated trading and modern markets, gave the hypothetical example of a mergers-and-acquisitions announcement, arguing that “the secretaries, the lawy...
Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam appeared to have deleted a post on X that said his country’s delegation would arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night ahead of talks with the US this weekend. The post had said the delegation was coming “despite skepticism of Iranian public opinion due to repeated ceasefire violations by Israeli regime to sabotage the diplomatic initiative.” The Iran...
Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam appeared to have deleted a post on X that said his country’s delegation would arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night ahead of talks with the US this weekend. The post had said the delegation was coming “despite skepticism of Iranian public opinion due to repeated ceasefire violations by Israeli regime to sabotage the diplomatic initiative.” The Iranian embassy in Pakistan did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The White House confirmed on Thursday that Vice President JD Vance would lead a US delegation to Islamabad on Saturday for the first round of peace talks. The talks are set even as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed and Israel continued to launch an assault on Lebanon. Iranian officials have described the Israeli strikes as a violation of the ceasefire terms. The text of the original post from Thursday is below:
Shares of data analytics company Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) fell 6.1% in the afternoon session after Anthropic announced Managed Agents, a hosted service for long-running AI tasks.
Shares of data analytics company Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) fell 6.1% in the afternoon session after Anthropic announced Managed Agents, a hosted service for long-running AI tasks.
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the impact of the Iran war on the economy is moderate for the moment and growth is on track to match the government’s expectations if the conflict doesn’t deteriorate. “At this stage, the impact on growth is relatively moderate, but it will all depend on how the conflict evolves,” he said on Franceinfo radio Thursday. “If this crisis fades in the coming ...
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the impact of the Iran war on the economy is moderate for the moment and growth is on track to match the government’s expectations if the conflict doesn’t deteriorate. “At this stage, the impact on growth is relatively moderate, but it will all depend on how the conflict evolves,” he said on Franceinfo radio Thursday. “If this crisis fades in the coming weeks, we will remain in sync.” Before the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, the government forecast a 1% expansion in the 2026 budget bill. The Bank of France has since reduced its growth prediction, but only slightly to 0.9%. Lescure said the cost of the conflict for public finances is likely to be significant at around €4.8 billion ($5.6 billion) in 2026. But he repeated the government intends to keep the deficit within its target of 5% of economic output and will present a more detailed assessment of the economic and financial impact of the war April 21. France to Keep 5% 2026 Deficit Goal for Now, Budget Chief Says France to Expand Munitions Stocks in €36 Billion Defense Boost French Inflation Quickens to Highest Since August 2024 on War
French authorities say situation still being assessed after taxi-boat sank between France and UK Four people have died after a small boat sank in the Channel between France and Britain, French local authorities said on Thursday. “A taxi-boat sinking occurred today. The situation is still being assessed and remains subject to change,” local authorities in Calais said in a press statement. Continue ...
French authorities say situation still being assessed after taxi-boat sank between France and UK Four people have died after a small boat sank in the Channel between France and Britain, French local authorities said on Thursday. “A taxi-boat sinking occurred today. The situation is still being assessed and remains subject to change,” local authorities in Calais said in a press statement. Continue reading...
Israel said on Thursday it had killed the nephew of Naim Qassem, the leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, in a strike on Beirut overnight. “The IDF struck in the Beirut area and eliminated Ali Yusuf Harshi, the personal secretary and nephew of Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem,” the military said. REUTERS ORIGINAL COPY BELOW Israel said on Thursday it had killed N...
Israel said on Thursday it had killed the nephew of Naim Qassem, the leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, in a strike on Beirut overnight. “The IDF struck in the Beirut area and eliminated Ali Yusuf Harshi, the personal secretary and nephew of Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem,” the military said. REUTERS ORIGINAL COPY BELOW Israel said on Thursday it had killed Naim Qassem, the leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, in a strike on Beirut...