Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images Probably like many of our readers, we began our investment journey with the 60-40 allocation model, (i.e., with a 60% stock allocation and 40% Treasury bond allocation). From hindsight, we were truly lucky to have started with this seemingly simple – and extremely boring – model. It taught us discipline and prevented us from making emotional decisions at key ...
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images Probably like many of our readers, we began our investment journey with the 60-40 allocation model, (i.e., with a 60% stock allocation and 40% Treasury bond allocation). From hindsight, we were truly lucky to have started with this seemingly simple – and extremely boring – model. It taught us discipline and prevented us from making emotional decisions at key market junctures. Moreover, it also helped us to capture the longer cycles of both assets and essentially forced us to buy low and sell high. However, after following the model for more than 15 years, we felt we learned enough to question the approach in 2020 when Treasury rates dropped to near-zero levels amid the epic easing engineered by the Fed in the wakes of the COVID pandemic. It is the goal of this article to apply the lessons we learned since than to the current market conditions. In the end, our conclusion is that 2026 is likely a bad year to follow this template for several reasons. And the top reason on our list is inflation. Per the March inflation data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, largely due to the Iran war, annual inflation rate was 3.3%, putting the Federal Reserve further from its ~2% inflation target. More details of the data are quoted below and shown in the next chart. CNBC news: Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, as energy prices spiked due to Iran conflict. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.3%, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The annual rate was the highest since April 2024 and up from 2.4% in February. Next, we will explore the implications of such inflation rate on the performance of the 40-60 model. CNBC Real rates are new record low and likely to become lower With the large allocation of bonds in the model, a key for the 60-40 model to work is a satisfactory yield from the bond hold...
The latest tally of analyst opinions from the major brokerage houses shows that among the components of the S&P 500 index, Applied Materials (AMAT) is now the #52 analyst pick, moving up by 1 spot. This rank is formed by averaging the analyst opinions for each compo
The latest tally of analyst opinions from the major brokerage houses shows that among the components of the S&P 500 index, Applied Materials (AMAT) is now the #52 analyst pick, moving up by 1 spot. This rank is formed by averaging the analyst opinions for each compo
A study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages shows that Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (Symbol: KALU) is the #31 broker analyst pick, on average, out of the 50 stocks making up the Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index, according to Metals Channel. The Metals Channel G
A study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages shows that Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (Symbol: KALU) is the #31 broker analyst pick, on average, out of the 50 stocks making up the Metals Channel Global Mining Titans Index, according to Metals Channel. The Metals Channel G
In a study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages, for the underlying components of the S&P 500, Applied Materials, Inc. (Symbol: AMAT) has taken over the #52 spot from Parker Hannifin Corp (Symbol: PH), according to ETF Channel. Below is a chart of Applied Mate
In a study of analyst recommendations at the major brokerages, for the underlying components of the S&P 500, Applied Materials, Inc. (Symbol: AMAT) has taken over the #52 spot from Parker Hannifin Corp (Symbol: PH), according to ETF Channel. Below is a chart of Applied Mate
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Yet another week goes by with Anthropic disrupting everything about how markets view AI. Earlier this week, Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) announced a closed-door launch of its powerful Mythos model by inviting a few select enterprise participants to access its Mythos model. The extremely private, mysterious and sensitive nature of the Mythos model launch, combined w...
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images Yet another week goes by with Anthropic disrupting everything about how markets view AI. Earlier this week, Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) announced a closed-door launch of its powerful Mythos model by inviting a few select enterprise participants to access its Mythos model. The extremely private, mysterious and sensitive nature of the Mythos model launch, combined with the release of Anthropic’s Managed Agents platform, has sparked another round of panic in markets, further disrupting the very order of the AI trade as we had come to know it. The impact that Anthropic and its bigger rival, OpenAI ( OPENAI ), are having on the AI trade is more profound than ever. The rapidly evolving product roadmaps at these frontier model companies are changing how enterprises spend their IT budgets. And that is further disrupting diverging market sentiments toward software, semiconductors, and hyperscaler stocks that are part of the AI trade. On a broad basis, I remain bullish on the markets, but I explain my rationale for how the AI trade is mutating beneath the surface and what this means for the software, cybersecurity and semiconductor cohort of stocks. Anthropic - The Inconvenient Truth For Markets 2026 has been a rude awakening for markets and their views on AI. Markets were euphoric about the prospect of AI during 2023-24, the years when model training captivated the markets and the massive demand for compute sparked a frantic run for GPUs and the shares of Nvidia ( NVDA ). In 2025, markets began to temper down their views on AI, prioritizing ROI and growth over spend . By Q4 CY25, talk of the AI bubble bursting intensified, a view that I did not agree with. In a previous note on Alphabet ( GOOG ), I said: The narrative about the AI bubble potentially bursting has snowballed into a spaghetti ball of messy conclusions that take away the significance of growth ramps that AI beneficiaries like Alphabet have built in the past 24-36 months. This ye...
Personal finance expert Dave Ramsey often talks about everyday millionaires—the kind of people you'd never guess are rich just by walking past them in a grocery store. On a recent call, he connected with one of these quietly successful folks...
Personal finance expert Dave Ramsey often talks about everyday millionaires—the kind of people you'd never guess are rich just by walking past them in a grocery store. On a recent call, he connected with one of these quietly successful folks...
Images By Tang Ming Tung/DigitalVision via Getty Images The March CPI report arrives at a complicated moment for the inflation narrative, as an external shock tied to the Middle East conflict interrupts what had been a gradual cooling in price pressures. Headline inflation moved sharply higher on the back of energy, but the underlying details paint a more nuanced picture, with core measures showin...
Images By Tang Ming Tung/DigitalVision via Getty Images The March CPI report arrives at a complicated moment for the inflation narrative, as an external shock tied to the Middle East conflict interrupts what had been a gradual cooling in price pressures. Headline inflation moved sharply higher on the back of energy, but the underlying details paint a more nuanced picture, with core measures showing less momentum than expected and several key segments remaining relatively contained. That mix of a clear upside surprise in the headline alongside softer underlying trends leaves both markets and policymakers in a difficult position, trying to determine whether this marks the start of a renewed inflation cycle or just a temporary disruption layered on top of an otherwise moderating trend. CPI BLS U.S. consumer prices surged in March, as expected, as a flare-up in energy costs related to the conflict in the Middle East caused headline inflation to accelerate. The CPI increased 0.9% MoM in the final month of Q1 2026, the largest single-month rise since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.3% YoY, a nearly two-year high. However, the details of the report do suggest that inflation outside of energy saw more of a tepid rise. Specifically, CPI ex energy was up 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, only slightly higher than February’s reading of 2.5% YoY. The volatile components in today’s CPI release moved quite differently in March, but of course, the strength in energy more than offset the food segment. BLS The energy index jumped 10.9% MoM in March, the largest MoM increase since September 2005. The gasoline index actually posted its largest MoM increase ever, up 21.2% MoM. Energy went from contributing 3.2 bps to annual CPI inflation in February to 81.6 bps. The volatility, of course, was due to energy goods prices driven by surges in energy commodity prices. Energy services saw a smaller 0.4% MoM rise and was a non-factor more or less. In contrast to energy, the food index posted its...
Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced Friday that Brazil and the US have launched a joint-initiative to combat transnational organized crime gangs that have ramped up smuggling of weapons and illegal drugs across Latin America. The move is part of a bilateral collaboration between Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service and U.S Customs and Border Protection, and has been dubbed, Project MIT — short fo...
Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced Friday that Brazil and the US have launched a joint-initiative to combat transnational organized crime gangs that have ramped up smuggling of weapons and illegal drugs across Latin America. The move is part of a bilateral collaboration between Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service and U.S Customs and Border Protection, and has been dubbed, Project MIT — short for Mutual Interdiction Team — which seeks to integrate intelligence and operations to intercept illegal shipments of arms and drugs. A key element of the project, a program called DESARMA, was launched Friday by Brazil’s tax agency and will share intelligence in real time with the US on the interdiction of products of American origin related to guns, ammunition, gun parts, explosives and similar items. The effort stems from ongoing dialogue between U.S President Donald Trump and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and forms part of a wider agenda to curb the flow of illicit goods and dismantle criminal organizations operating between the two countries. Brazil seized more than 1.5 tons of drugs from the US in the first quarter of 2026, according to official figures. Most of the narcotics found were hashish and synthetics. The joint initiative has gained momentum from late last year, when then-Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said Brazil would seek US support in fighting organized crime as part of broader trade talks, following a police operation targeting tax evasion and money laundering in the fuel sector. Investigations linked to that probe found that criminal groups were laundering money through investment funds based in Delaware, Haddad said at the time. Authorities also identified illegal weapons shipments from the U.S. to Brazil concealed in containers intended for commodity exports. Read more: Brazil Seeks US Help to Fight Organized Crime, Weapons Smuggling
Dividends are one of the best benefits to being a shareholder, but finding a great dividend stock is no easy task. Does First Financial Corp. (THFF) have what it takes? Let's find out.
Dividends are one of the best benefits to being a shareholder, but finding a great dividend stock is no easy task. Does First Financial Corp. (THFF) have what it takes? Let's find out.
Dividends are one of the best benefits to being a shareholder, but finding a great dividend stock is no easy task. Does Kimco Realty (KIM) have what it takes? Let's find out.
Dividends are one of the best benefits to being a shareholder, but finding a great dividend stock is no easy task. Does Kimco Realty (KIM) have what it takes? Let's find out.
A warrantless wiretapping authority that has facilitated surveillance for decades is up for renewal in Congress. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), last reauthorized in 2024, is set to expire on April 20th. A bipartisan coalition of progressive Democrats and members of the hard-right Freedom Caucus say it's long overdue for reform. But they're up against powerful figu...
A warrantless wiretapping authority that has facilitated surveillance for decades is up for renewal in Congress. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), last reauthorized in 2024, is set to expire on April 20th. A bipartisan coalition of progressive Democrats and members of the hard-right Freedom Caucus say it's long overdue for reform. But they're up against powerful figures in both parties who want to deliver a "clean" reauthorization, even as critics warn the rule is allowing President Donald Trump's administration to spy on anyone - even Americans. Section 702, first enacted in 2008, formally allows for the surv … Read the full story at The Verge.