AlexSecret/iStock via Getty Images Not many beat the S&P 500 consistently I like to collect charts on S&P 500 ( SP500 ) beating funds, pitting them against The State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ). As I mentioned in a previous article , when I find one I like to print out the chart and keep it in a binder. The trend of market beating funds over longer than 10 year periods is that they have ...
AlexSecret/iStock via Getty Images Not many beat the S&P 500 consistently I like to collect charts on S&P 500 ( SP500 ) beating funds, pitting them against The State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ). As I mentioned in a previous article , when I find one I like to print out the chart and keep it in a binder. The trend of market beating funds over longer than 10 year periods is that they have a growth stock mandate, of which there are many funds to choose from. These could be funds like the following: Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF ( SCHG ) Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF ( VUG ) Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund ( FBGRX ) Data by YCharts All of these growth funds beat the S&P 500 handily over the past decade. The story of the Mag 7 and tech explosion is well known. It may keep going for a decade to come, maybe not. But this excess alpha also came at a price, higher standard deviations, in other words, more volatility. statisticshowto.com This standard deviation distribution pattern would tell us that 68.2% [34.1% upside possibility, 34.1% downside possibility] of the time, the fund will be plus or minus up or down 1 standard deviation. For instance if you have a fund with an average compound annual growth rate [CAGR] of 10% and a 10% standard deviation over a set period, the fund would normally be up 20% or return zero percent in any give year 68.2% of the time [10+10=20, 10-10=0]. Then you get to the outliers. 2 standard deviation events are expected to happen 27.2% of the time on either side of the curve. 3 standard deviations are 4.2% of the time and one might not experience such an event in their life time. Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2016 - Mar 2026) Portfolio Visualizer The funds mentioned all have standard deviations over the last decade of near 20%. So we can expect near that level of swings up or down around that mean return in most years. If one is nearing retirement, this is undesirable as you may be selling shares to l...
The acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Jay Bhattacharya, has delayed the publication of a CDC report indicating that COVID vaccines cut the risk of ER visits and hospitalizations by nearly 50% in healthy adults last winter, The Washington Post reported. Citing two scientists familiar with the matter, the newspaper reported that the study scheduled for publication on...
The acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Jay Bhattacharya, has delayed the publication of a CDC report indicating that COVID vaccines cut the risk of ER visits and hospitalizations by nearly 50% in healthy adults last winter, The Washington Post reported. Citing two scientists familiar with the matter, the newspaper reported that the study scheduled for publication on March 19 in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report has been delayed by Bhattacharya over concerns about its methodology. Based on data obtained from healthy adults between September and December, the study found that the likelihood of emergency department and urgent care visits dipped 50%, and the likelihood of COVID-linked hospitalizations dropped 55% among those who received updated COVID shots. The investigators made the comparison against adults who didn’t receive a 2025-2026 COVID vaccine dose. The report was based on a methodology known as "test-negative design," a well-established method used by the CDC to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines targeting respiratory viruses. While the report has undergone the CDC's scientific review process, Bhattacharya has raised concerns over the methodology, the scientists said on the condition of anonymity due to possible retaliation. "It's routine for CDC leadership to review and flag concerns about MMWR papers, especially relating to their methodology, leading up to planned publication, said a spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, under which CDC functions. However, a former CDC official argued that views on vaccine benefits are being downplayed because they clash with the agenda of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. A well-known vaccine skeptic, RFK Jr., went on to announce on X last year that the CDC no longer recommends COVID shots for healthy pregnant women and children. "The secretary has already taken steps to try and remove the availability of the vaccine from children and others, so if y...
sinseeho/iStock via Getty Images I wrote an article back on January 21 of this year. That one and this one are really "macro outlook" articles. But with the story told through more of a bottom-up analysis, of the total membership of the S&P 500 index. That allows me to draw some conclusions about the market as a whole, with some stock-specific examples inside of it to show the broader pattern I se...
sinseeho/iStock via Getty Images I wrote an article back on January 21 of this year. That one and this one are really "macro outlook" articles. But with the story told through more of a bottom-up analysis, of the total membership of the S&P 500 index. That allows me to draw some conclusions about the market as a whole, with some stock-specific examples inside of it to show the broader pattern I see. And that pattern continues to be one of a very weak stock market, with very few pockets of future strength seen. Financials and some REITS (particularly the digital variety) look generally OK, but that is probably just a clue that rates are likely to dip a bit. All things considered, this is NOT the environment of last year at the single stock level. Not yet anyway. More than 10 weeks have passed since that previous article I wrote in this same style. And given the breakout of war in the Middle East, the continued penetration of AI into our consciousness, ever-rising inflation concerns, a new presumed Fed chair, and long bond yields levitating again, I figured it was a good time to revisit that research study. Oh, and by the way: all that has occurred in just the past few months! The previous article and this one are simply a technical chart scan of the full S&P 500 index. All 500 stocks. I actually do it about once a week, but I really drill down every few months. Or, when market conditions tell me I should. This is such a time. The S&P 500 is off about 3% since that January 21, 2026 article, following the recent bounce back. So we'll keep that in mind. And with the stock market now more correlated than at any point I can recall in 40 years in the professional investing business, that only added to my intrigue. First, let's check in on the charts I landed on a few months ago. There were 15 of them. I noted at the time that I was really stretching to find even these. Remember, that's out of 500 stocks, so this list accounted for a mere 3% of the S&P 500 index. I'll also ...
Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) was not an obvious long-term compounder in April 2016. Trading at $10.45 per share, it was a deeply cyclical memory chipmaker. What happened next was a fundamental transformation. From Commodity Chip Maker to AI Infrastructure Powerhouse Micron spent much of the late 2010s grinding through memory oversupply cycles but quietly built ... Micron Rewarded Patient Investo...
Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) was not an obvious long-term compounder in April 2016. Trading at $10.45 per share, it was a deeply cyclical memory chipmaker. What happened next was a fundamental transformation. From Commodity Chip Maker to AI Infrastructure Powerhouse Micron spent much of the late 2010s grinding through memory oversupply cycles but quietly built ... Micron Rewarded Patient Investors Over the Past Decade With Huge Rewards
Germany is detailing plans to build up a strategic natural gas reserve to keep supplies running in a worst-case crisis scenario, as the shock caused by the Iran war underscores Europe’s continued vulnerability to sudden disruptions. Emergency reserves should have a size of around 24 terawatt-hours or about 10% of the nation’s gas storage capacity, according to an economy ministry document seen by ...
Germany is detailing plans to build up a strategic natural gas reserve to keep supplies running in a worst-case crisis scenario, as the shock caused by the Iran war underscores Europe’s continued vulnerability to sudden disruptions. Emergency reserves should have a size of around 24 terawatt-hours or about 10% of the nation’s gas storage capacity, according to an economy ministry document seen by Bloomberg. That would secure supply for households and businesses for around two weeks in a normal winter — or for one week in a very cold winter — if all imports were cut off. The fleshed out plan comes after German government officials have publicly and privately commented on the possibility of strategic gas reserves in recent months. European Union member states currently have legally-binding targets for commercial gas stockpiling, but have struggled to meet them in recent years. That’s sparked a rethink on how effective such rules are, and what safeguards must be in place if states leave regular preparations for winter in the hands of market participants. Winter gas stockpiling works most efficiently when it is purely market-based and not hampered or distorted by government intervention, the economy ministry document said. The market does not, however, prepare adequately for rare and serious exogenous shocks, such as a significant import disruptions due to infrastructure sabotage. The ministry pegs one-time costs for emergency reserves between €500 million to €1.5 billion ($584 million to $1.8 billion) and expects annual running costs of up to €165 million, paid from the nation’s budget. To not disturb this season’s stockpiling — which is likely to face strains from disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict — the reserve should only be built up next year and be operational in winter 2027/28. A spokesperson confirmed the ministry is currently exploring such an instrument “to protect ourselves against exogenous shocks,” and that it is in talks with stakeholders and o...
Another wave of enthusiasm in artificial intelligence world is lifting chip stocks to record levels and sending software stocks tumbling. The PHLX Semiconductor Index, or SOX, rallied 0.7% to 8,572.32 to put it on track for a record close for a second-straight session. Mizuho’s Daniel O’Regan writes that the market is reacting to a ton of AI-related news, including updates from Anthropic and Meta ...
Another wave of enthusiasm in artificial intelligence world is lifting chip stocks to record levels and sending software stocks tumbling. The PHLX Semiconductor Index, or SOX, rallied 0.7% to 8,572.32 to put it on track for a record close for a second-straight session. Mizuho’s Daniel O’Regan writes that the market is reacting to a ton of AI-related news, including updates from Anthropic and Meta Platforms on newer, more powerful models.
rarrarorro Donald Trump could attempt to impose tariffs linked to Iran using emergency powers, though the legal basis remains highly contested, according to Bloomberg . His top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett , said the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) may provide the authority, arguing the U.S. is effectively in a “state of conflict.” Trump has threatened to impose 50% duties o...
rarrarorro Donald Trump could attempt to impose tariffs linked to Iran using emergency powers, though the legal basis remains highly contested, according to Bloomberg . His top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett , said the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) may provide the authority, arguing the U.S. is effectively in a “state of conflict.” Trump has threatened to impose 50% duties on goods from countries that supply Iran with military equipment, warning those nations could face sweeping trade penalties. Hassett said the law was designed for national emergencies and conflict situations, suggesting it could justify the tariffs. However, the plan faces significant legal hurdles. The Supreme Court of the United States recently ruled that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, raising doubts about whether it can be used in this context. The court’s majority opinion did not carve out any exceptions for wartime or conflict scenarios. In a concurring opinion, Neil Gorsuch emphasized that IEEPA is not a wartime statute. While some justices acknowledged a debate over whether presidents have inherent tariff powers during wartime, the majority made clear such authority does not extend to peacetime. As a result, if Trump proceeds, the administration would likely face an uphill legal battle. Even arguments based on wartime powers may struggle to gain traction, leaving the policy vulnerable to being struck down, Bloomberg reported. More on markets Iran Ceasefire Deepens The Cracks In The Splintering Global Order Q1 GDP Poised For Rebound As Fragile Ceasefire Clouds Outlook This Ceasefire Rally Could Collapse Tomorrow: Here's What I'm Buying Anyway ‘Markets have moved on from volatility and want to focus on fundamentals’ – BMO Private Wealth U.S. stocks slip into red territory as U.S.-Iran resolution is still uncertain
Getty Images Broadcom ( AVGO ) announced two major AI partnership deals with Alphabet ( GOOG ) and generative AI powerhouse Anthropic this month, which are set to create a tailwind for the company's AI-related revenues. Broadcom formalized a long-term commitment to remain Google's primary partner for custom AI silicon manufacturing and is set to support the growth of Anthropic -- the creator of th...
Getty Images Broadcom ( AVGO ) announced two major AI partnership deals with Alphabet ( GOOG ) and generative AI powerhouse Anthropic this month, which are set to create a tailwind for the company's AI-related revenues. Broadcom formalized a long-term commitment to remain Google's primary partner for custom AI silicon manufacturing and is set to support the growth of Anthropic -- the creator of the Claude gen-AI model -- as well. The AI hardware company will design custom chips for Alphabet and provide the high-speed networking fabric to allow Anthropic to run its next-gen AI models, Claude 5 and 6, which are engineered for large-scale enterprise automation. The triad deal between Broadcom, Alphabet and Anthropic is not only critical to Broadcom’s long-term revenue and free cash flow growth visibility, but it also signals a shift in the AI infrastructure landscape away from an Nvidia ( NVDA )-dominated GPU market and towards the mass adoption of custom silicon. The market reacted positively to the announcement, as it should, and I see Broadcom on track to crack through a $2 trillion market cap in the next 12 months. Data by YCharts Previous rating In my March 2026 coverage on Broadcom -- Set For New Highs In 2026 -- I highlighted the firm’s high gross profit margins, strong free cash flows and accelerating top-line growth linked to an expanding total addressable market for data centers as ‘Strong Buy’ reasons for investors. The triad deal between the three companies mentioned here is not only set to deepen Broadcom's relationship with one of the fastest-growing hyperscalers (Google) in the realm of advanced chip production, but it will also move Broadcom closer to becoming a full-stack AI infrastructure provider set to grow on the massive potential of gen-AI models. New triad deal sets Broadcom up for sustained AI-driven growth On April 6 and April 7, 2026, Broadcom, Alphabet and Anthropic announced a landmark infrastructure agreement that will see enhanced cooperat...
Getty Images Broadcom ( AVGO ) announced two major AI partnership deals with Alphabet ( GOOG ) and generative AI powerhouse Anthropic this month, which are set to create a tailwind for the company's AI-related revenues. Broadcom formalized a long-term commitment to remain Google's primary partner for custom AI silicon manufacturing and is set to support the growth of Anthropic -- the creator of th...
Getty Images Broadcom ( AVGO ) announced two major AI partnership deals with Alphabet ( GOOG ) and generative AI powerhouse Anthropic this month, which are set to create a tailwind for the company's AI-related revenues. Broadcom formalized a long-term commitment to remain Google's primary partner for custom AI silicon manufacturing and is set to support the growth of Anthropic -- the creator of the Claude gen-AI model -- as well. The AI hardware company will design custom chips for Alphabet and provide the high-speed networking fabric to allow Anthropic to run its next-gen AI models, Claude 5 and 6, which are engineered for large-scale enterprise automation. The triad deal between Broadcom, Alphabet and Anthropic is not only critical to Broadcom’s long-term revenue and free cash flow growth visibility, but it also signals a shift in the AI infrastructure landscape away from an Nvidia ( NVDA )-dominated GPU market and towards the mass adoption of custom silicon. The market reacted positively to the announcement, as it should, and I see Broadcom on track to crack through a $2 trillion market cap in the next 12 months. Data by YCharts Previous rating In my March 2026 coverage on Broadcom -- Set For New Highs In 2026 -- I highlighted the firm’s high gross profit margins, strong free cash flows and accelerating top-line growth linked to an expanding total addressable market for data centers as ‘Strong Buy’ reasons for investors. The triad deal between the three companies mentioned here is not only set to deepen Broadcom's relationship with one of the fastest-growing hyperscalers (Google) in the realm of advanced chip production, but it will also move Broadcom closer to becoming a full-stack AI infrastructure provider set to grow on the massive potential of gen-AI models. New triad deal sets Broadcom up for sustained AI-driven growth On April 6 and April 7, 2026, Broadcom, Alphabet and Anthropic announced a landmark infrastructure agreement that will see enhanced cooperat...
Bob Michele, global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, sees a path to markets turning optimistic and putting the Iran war “in the distant rearview mirror” over the next month, even if oil remains at $100 per barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bob Michele, global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, sees a path to markets turning optimistic and putting the Iran war “in the distant rearview mirror” over the next month, even if oil remains at $100 per barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)
VV Shots/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla, Inc.'s ( TSLA ) shares took another nosedive recently, in a considerable reversal, closing around multi-month lows, and bringing its total peak to trough decline to roughly 33% now. The uncertainty and volatility from the war, a "rough" delivery number , general market weakness in the higher multiple space, a recent " high profile downgrade ," and ...
VV Shots/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla, Inc.'s ( TSLA ) shares took another nosedive recently, in a considerable reversal, closing around multi-month lows, and bringing its total peak to trough decline to roughly 33% now. The uncertainty and volatility from the war, a "rough" delivery number , general market weakness in the higher multiple space, a recent " high profile downgrade ," and other elements have enabled Tesla's share price to decline considerably recently. Tesla 1-Year Chart TSLA (Stock Charts ) Technically, while Tesla's stock could experience more near term volatility, unless a broad equity bear market develops, Tesla's stock price could be close to a low point now. Tesla's recent price drop closed a key gap around the $350-340 support range. Also, the reversal on April 8th could be a retest of the recent low. Therefore, I am cautiously optimistic on the near term technical image now. Still, in a worse-case, Tesla could have a more considerable decline in the near term, and my next buy-in level is in the $320-300 range. Regardless whether Tesla's stock goes higher from here, of if it goes marginally lower in the near term, I remain bullish on Tesla in the intermediate and in longer term especially. Why Tesla Remains My Most Significant Holding Besides its solid positioning in the EV space, Tesla's stock could benefit enormously due to its multifaceted business approach, and multiple "futuristic-style" businesses segments it could potentially dominate in the coming years. Tesla has vast Full Self-Driving ("FSD") and Robotaxi potential. Additionally, the company is making important strides in AI, supercomputing , chip manufacturing , robotics, and has an excellent energy generation and storage business. Moreover, Tesla has an enormous ecosystem that could provide Tesla with significant competitive advantages, which may lead to substantially more profitability than the market anticipates. Therefore, despite the recent weakness, I am keeping my St...