There is no shortage of shocking storylines shaping the stock market narrative for 2026. From hyperscaler capital expenditures to rate vigilance from the Federal Reserve and energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict, choosing a single artificial intelligence (AI) stock worthy of a long-term investment requires ruthless clarity. Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) stands out as one of the biggest winn...
There is no shortage of shocking storylines shaping the stock market narrative for 2026. From hyperscaler capital expenditures to rate vigilance from the Federal Reserve and energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict, choosing a single artificial intelligence (AI) stock worthy of a long-term investment requires ruthless clarity. Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) stands out as one of the biggest winners from my perspective. The company does not simply supply components and services to the infrastructure boom. Nebius operationalizes the entire AI stack in real time -- delivering resilience where legacy solutions inherit fragility. Nebius is a business that is purpose-built to turn macro headwinds into secular tailwinds. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
AlexLMX/iStock via Getty Images A confluence of technical forces is lining up behind stocks this week, according to analysis from Neil Sethi of Sethi Associates drawing on Goldman Sachs data — and the setup may be more durable than it first appears. On the flow side, Goldman models CTAs as buyers of roughly $45B in U.S. equities over the next week, with approximately $34B of that concentrated in t...
AlexLMX/iStock via Getty Images A confluence of technical forces is lining up behind stocks this week, according to analysis from Neil Sethi of Sethi Associates drawing on Goldman Sachs data — and the setup may be more durable than it first appears. On the flow side, Goldman models CTAs as buyers of roughly $45B in U.S. equities over the next week, with approximately $34B of that concentrated in the S&P ( SPX ) ( SPY ) ( IVV ) ( VOO ). That ranks as the second-largest buy estimate on record. The shift reflects the pivot in systematic positioning from net sellers to net buyers that has been building through the early weeks of Q2. The more structurally significant development, however, may be what has happened to dealer gamma. Coming into 2025, dealer gamma was heavily concentrated above the market — a positioning that repeatedly capped rallies, as dealers were mechanically selling into upside strength to hedge their long call exposure. Goldman notes that this created a persistent ceiling effect through Q1. That picture has now inverted. Dealer gamma has migrated below the current market level, with dealers now running short gamma to the upside. The spread between dealer gamma at up 5% versus down 5% has reached its widest level on record — meaning the asymmetry in how dealer hedging flows respond to price moves is historically extreme. Moves lower will attract dealer buying as they rebalance short put hedges; moves higher will trigger further buying as dealers chase delta on their short call books. Goldman/Neil Sethi (Goldman/Neil Sethi) The same mechanical flows that capped the market in Q1 are now oriented to amplify it.Goldman's caveat — "all else equal" — is worth keeping in view. A macro shock sufficient to reprice volatility materially could unwind the gamma dynamics relatively quickly. But absent that catalyst, the structural backdrop for a sustained move higher is, by some measures, the most supportive it has ever been. More on the markets S&P 500: Distrust D...
mammuth/iStock via Getty Images U.S. equities fell in March as oil surged on geopolitical tensions. The Moat Index lagged on no energy exposure, while the SMID Moat Index held up with help from energy and materials. Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Fair value estimates a...
mammuth/iStock via Getty Images U.S. equities fell in March as oil surged on geopolitical tensions. The Moat Index lagged on no energy exposure, while the SMID Moat Index held up with help from energy and materials. Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Fair value estimates and price targets referenced herein are those of Morningstar's equity research team, are subject to change without notice, and do not constitute recommendations or investment advice. U.S. equity markets suffered a sharp, broad-based decline in March as the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict upended what had been a constructive start to the year. The initiation of U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran in late February and Iran’s subsequent disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz sent energy prices surging. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel during the month. The S&P 500 fell 4.98% in March, while the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index declined 5.97%, reflecting the pervasive nature of the selloff across market capitalizations and styles. Energy was the only positive sector during the month, gaining 10.28%, while industrials, consumer staples, and health care were among the hardest hit, each falling more than 8%. A late-month rally on hopes for a potential ceasefire helped indexes recover from their worst levels, but was not enough to offset a punishing month for equities. The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index ( MOAT ) (the “Moat Index”) declined 9.55% in March, trailing the S&P 500 by roughly 4.5 percentage points. The Index reached its deepest drawdown around March 27, when cumulative month-to-date losses approached 12%, before a late-month recovery trimmed the gap modestly. Both sector allocation and stock selection weighed on relative performance. The strategy carries no allocation to energy, a reflection of the wide moat requirement for index inclusion, as ...