SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images An energy crisis is likely coming, and I believe it will impact the AI bubble. The energy crisis I’m referring to hasn’t happened yet. Yes, gas prices are up, but not enough to significantly curtail demand. And yes, energy inventories are shrinking, but there aren’t shortages. Things will get worse regardless of the trajectory of pending negotiations, in my vie...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images An energy crisis is likely coming, and I believe it will impact the AI bubble. The energy crisis I’m referring to hasn’t happened yet. Yes, gas prices are up, but not enough to significantly curtail demand. And yes, energy inventories are shrinking, but there aren’t shortages. Things will get worse regardless of the trajectory of pending negotiations, in my view, and this only requires simple arithmetic around logistics to understand. Let’s say a peace deal happens today, June 1st (as of today, markets have the odds of a deal by 6/30 at 22% according to Polymarket, but let’s say it happens today). And this deal has Iran agree to fully open up the Strait and also gives shipping companies trust that the U.S., Iran, Israel, and all other Gulf countries are satisfied with the terms and plan on abiding by them for the foreseeable future. A significant hurdle, but let’s say the deal clears it. Does Gulf oil production shoot back to pre-war levels? Even if we assume no significant damage to the energy infrastructure itself, the transportation logistics make this impossible. The Pentagon has advised it could take up to six months to fully clear the Strait of mines, but let’s assume they manage to clear it in a few weeks. And let’s assume outbound traffic of all the trapped commercial vessels recovers soon after. You still need inbound traffic for the oil production that’s currently shut in to restart. For Gulf producers to ‘turn on’ production (something that isn’t done without trust in what the future looks like, as it’s costly to reverse), they need a reliable stream of inbound tankers, which aren’t just waiting at the entrance to the Strait. They’re all over the world transporting oil from the regions they can still service. And as many came to realize at the beginning of this crisis, they move slowly. The energy industry understands the situation and is sounding an alarm markets are ignoring. The CEO of UAE’s state owned oil company ...
Here's our Club Mailbag email investingclubmailbag@cnbc.com — send your questions directly to Jim Cramer and his team of analysts. We can't offer personal investing advice. We will only consider more general questions about the investment process or stocks in the portfolio or related industries. This week's question: I'm a pretty recent Club member, but I have found your insights great. My questio...
Here's our Club Mailbag email investingclubmailbag@cnbc.com — send your questions directly to Jim Cramer and his team of analysts. We can't offer personal investing advice. We will only consider more general questions about the investment process or stocks in the portfolio or related industries. This week's question: I'm a pretty recent Club member, but I have found your insights great. My question: With the S & P 500 continuing to rise, do you anticipate a bubble burst or a pullback? The economic indicators are not great, but the market seems to be gaining momentum, which can be a bad combination. — Jim We avoid making big calls on the market's direction. Corrections will happen, but their timing and duration are nearly impossible to predict. We don't pretend to have a crystal ball. Nobody does. Instead, our investment decisions are driven primarily by the fundamentals of the companies we own and the valuations the market assigns to them. Our job is to find great long-term stories and buy in when the stock prices appear undervalued, not attempt to time when others might start buying. We focus on investing in the right companies over the next six to nine months and beyond. We are always invested. Market moves A correction is defined by a decline of 10% or more from all-time highs. A bear market is measured by a drop of 20% or more from record highs. That's not to say fundamental investors should be ostriches, sticking their heads in the ground and avoiding the big picture and market trends. Instead, investors should always be prepared, understanding that corrections, even bear markets, are inevitable. And that starts and ends with our cash stake, and ensuring we have enough on hand to take advantage of buying and selling opportunities, depending on which direction the market moves. If the market has been hot, or if the backdrop has deteriorated, we'll increase cash levels. If the market has been in a rut or we expect good news, we'll look to get some cash to work. T...
A Pentagon policy illegally banned transgender troops from military service, a divided panel of federal appeal court judges ruled on Monday in another legal setback for US President Donald Trump’s sweeping agenda. The majority opinion – by a three-judge panel from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Colombia circuit – held that the Trump administration’s policy was designed to exclude peop...
A Pentagon policy illegally banned transgender troops from military service, a divided panel of federal appeal court judges ruled on Monday in another legal setback for US President Donald Trump’s sweeping agenda. The majority opinion – by a three-judge panel from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Colombia circuit – held that the Trump administration’s policy was designed to exclude people from the military based on their gender identity. The ban will remain in effect for now. The US...
A screen of U.S. consumer discretionary stocks with market capitalizations between $2B and $10B highlights Hilton Grand Vacations and Asbury Automotive Group among the sector's cheapest names based on valuation grades. The valuation grade compares how expensive or cheap a stock is relative to others in its sector. It is based on a combination of valuation metrics such as P/E, PEG, price to sales, ...
A screen of U.S. consumer discretionary stocks with market capitalizations between $2B and $10B highlights Hilton Grand Vacations and Asbury Automotive Group among the sector's cheapest names based on valuation grades. The valuation grade compares how expensive or cheap a stock is relative to others in its sector. It is based on a combination of valuation metrics such as P/E, PEG, price to sales, and price to cash flow, using both current and forward estimates. The overall valuation grade is derived from a comparison of all underlying metrics and reflects how attractively the stock is priced compared to its sector peers. Most cheap mid-cap U.S. consumer discretionary stocks by valuation grade: Hilton Grand Vacations ( HGV ): Valuation Grade A Asbury Automotive Group ( ABG ): Valuation Grade A- Bath & Body Works ( BBWI ): Valuation Grade A- H&R Block ( HRB ): Valuation Grade A- Whirlpool Corporation ( WHR ): Valuation Grade A- ADT ( ADT ): Valuation Grade B+ Callaway Golf Company ( CALY ): Valuation Grade B+ CarMax ( KMX ): Valuation Grade B+ LKQ Corporation ( LKQ ): Valuation Grade B+ Macy's ( M ): Valuation Grade B+ More on State Street® Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR® ETF, Hilton Grand Vacations, etc. Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript LKQ Corporation Is Too Cheap To Ignore, Especially With A Potential Catalyst At Play Consumer And Retail: Better-Than-Expected Results And Outlook Has XRT Primed To Outperform Global Business Travel Group is the best performing consumer discretionary stock in the past month Retail rejoices: Restaurant stocks, leisure names, and e-commerce players rally
Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO, Meredith Whitney, discusses the economy, artificial intelligence, credit and housing markets. She speaks with Matt Miller and Dani Burger on “Open Interest.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO, Meredith Whitney, discusses the economy, artificial intelligence, credit and housing markets. She speaks with Matt Miller and Dani Burger on “Open Interest.” (Source: Bloomberg)
bombermoon/iStock via Getty Images By Geoff Bysshe Last week, the space industry was exploding - literally and figuratively. Virgin Galactic ( SPCE ) rallied about 90% for the week after investors reacted to renewed test flights with a successful launch. This is exactly the type of impact a “tipping point of visibility” can have, which is what I wrote about in last week’s Market Outlook, " The Mos...
bombermoon/iStock via Getty Images By Geoff Bysshe Last week, the space industry was exploding - literally and figuratively. Virgin Galactic ( SPCE ) rallied about 90% for the week after investors reacted to renewed test flights with a successful launch. This is exactly the type of impact a “tipping point of visibility” can have, which is what I wrote about in last week’s Market Outlook, " The Most Valuable Asset In The SpaceX IPO Is A Gift That Most Investors Will Ignore ." When Wall Street sees the vision of the future, the conversation changes. Investors stop thinking about the theme as science fiction. FOMO develops, and investors scramble to find exposure to the next best idea. Blue Origin ( BORGN ), on the other hand, suffered a very different kind of headline when one of its rockets exploded on the launch pad. Investors should expect space stocks to produce spectacular rallies, dramatic setbacks, and emotionally charged headlines. The SpaceX IPO is likely to amplify all three. It’s a good time to define a framework for following space stocks. Space Stocks Are Not One Trade The first mistake investors are likely to make is treating “space stocks” as one category. They are not. A launch company, a satellite operator, a defense contractor, a lunar infrastructure company, and a geospatial data company may all be considered space stocks, but they are very different businesses. They have different customers. They have different revenue models. They have different levels of capital intensity. They have different risk. They may also respond very differently to the same headline. For example, a successful commercial spaceflight test may help a stock like Virgin Galactic, but it may not mean much for a company focused on satellite imagery, defense payloads, or secure communications. That’s why investors need a simple map. Here’s the framework I’m using to follow the space industry. The Space Economy Stack The space economy is best understood as a stack. Upstream compan...