Hispanolistic/E+ via Getty Images One industry that may benefit as a side effect of the Iran War oil/gas spike is the rideshare group. If gasoline prices spiral above $5-6 over the next few months, while used car prices and auto insurance rates continue their ascent higher (like 2025 and early 2026), many working-class individuals may give up on vehicle ownership, opting in favor of on-demand ride...
Hispanolistic/E+ via Getty Images One industry that may benefit as a side effect of the Iran War oil/gas spike is the rideshare group. If gasoline prices spiral above $5-6 over the next few months, while used car prices and auto insurance rates continue their ascent higher (like 2025 and early 2026), many working-class individuals may give up on vehicle ownership, opting in favor of on-demand rideshare services and public-sponsored options of transportation. A huge shift in travel choices will not be necessary to meaningfully jump demand for companies like Lyft, Inc. ( LYFT ). The good news is Lyft is very well run by management. It has a clean and cash-heavy balance sheet, was growing nicely before late February's military action in the Middle East, and just experienced a wicked share price decline since November. The end result of all these factors is LYFT is now available at a solid GARP (growth-at-a-reasonable price) valuation. Reviewing management decisions of late - the push to expand globally especially into Europe, partnering with related travel-focused companies, and retaining a conservative low-debt approach to running the business - are standout positives for ownership. While Uber ( UBER ) is the giant in the short-mileage passenger field, growth rates and profit margins could be peaking in 2026 and beyond. Robotaxis and autonomous entrants are grabbing market share, but Waymo-Google ( GOOGL ) ( GOOG ) vehicle and mapping costs are high, and Tesla ( TSLA ) efforts may have safety issues hard to resolve (using cameras vs. radar). No doubt the business model allure of self-driving vehicles (lacking driver wages) is real, but their rollout will still take many years. In my view, air taxis will be a decades-long project, where users will be paying dramatically higher rates for time savings. Consequently, eVTOL operators Archer Aviation ( ACHR ) and Joby Aviation ( JOBY ) remain speculative projects with no guarantee of success. Plus, they may never steal siza...
Khanchit Khirisutchalual/iStock via Getty Images I continue to remain bullish on NerdWallet ( NRDS ) as this founder-led company has continued to find new ways to diversify the business and grow revenue despite the ongoing AI concerns. Since my last article in mid-December, NerdWallet is down roughly 27%, while the S&P 500 has remained flat. Despite these lackluster results, I’m a believer that Ne...
Khanchit Khirisutchalual/iStock via Getty Images I continue to remain bullish on NerdWallet ( NRDS ) as this founder-led company has continued to find new ways to diversify the business and grow revenue despite the ongoing AI concerns. Since my last article in mid-December, NerdWallet is down roughly 27%, while the S&P 500 has remained flat. Despite these lackluster results, I’m a believer that NerdWallet can survive the AI apocalypse and continue to help customers on their quest to provide financial knowledge. Let’s dive into the company’s recent financial results and new developments. Combating Organic Search Headwinds I think the decline in organic search due to AI is the biggest concern for the business, which the company even mentioned in their Risk Factors section of their latest 10K filing : The introduction and acceptance of AI-assisted technologies could further impact search engine relevance, causing declines in our ranking and decreased platform traffic, affecting our financial results. It seems clear AI usage is ramping up and will likely increase, especially as Millennials and Gen Z consumers look for financial information to help with their decision-making. NerdWallet has a strong brand, which is in their favor, and the company has noted that conversion rates on LLM referral traffic are higher than traditional search, and it’s growing, which is certainly a positive for the company. I also want to touch on what I believe is an important point that was mentioned on the company’s latest earnings call, which is that these large LLMs, like Google ( GOOGL ), aren’t going to go out and create a bunch of relationships with banks and other financial service partners like NerdWallet is currently doing. Here’s what NerdWallet’s CEO, Tim Chen, had to say about this point: I think if you think about the scenario where you're trying to do some form of agentic shopping or LLMs are trying to get more integrated, there's kind of 2 obstacles you really need to think abo...
Tippapatt/iStock via Getty Images Dear Partner: The Greenlight Capital funds (the “Partnerships”) returned 6.5% in the first quarter of 2026, net of fees and expenses, compared to -4.4% for the S&P 500 index. ¹ It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. – Yogi Berra Fundamentally, we are in the business of making predictions. When we buy or sell short a stock, we believe the pros...
Tippapatt/iStock via Getty Images Dear Partner: The Greenlight Capital funds (the “Partnerships”) returned 6.5% in the first quarter of 2026, net of fees and expenses, compared to -4.4% for the S&P 500 index. ¹ It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. – Yogi Berra Fundamentally, we are in the business of making predictions. When we buy or sell short a stock, we believe the prospective reward is worth the perceived risk. Every trade is a debate with someone taking the other side, and every position reflects our prediction of how that debate will resolve. When Greenlight launched thirty years ago, we concentrated almost entirely on predicting individual stocks. We were trained in securities analysis and believed we could figure out what securities were worth, when they were mispriced, and what the market misunderstood. When we believed we had genuine insight and the scales were tipped in our favor, we invested. Over time, we realized we needed to look beyond the microeconomics of individual companies. The great financial crisis taught us that we needed to consider the bigger picture – the macroeconomy. So, we evolved. We now think ‘top-down’ in addition to ‘bottom-up.’ Now, when we have a clear basis for a macroeconomic prediction, we invest directly in macro instruments. From time to time, extraordinary world events force us to study new areas that extend well beyond securities or economic analysis, where we have no previous experience or relevant expertise. For example, after 9/11 we had to assess whether a series of terrorist attacks and the resulting security needs would cripple the economy. More recently, in 2020 we had to navigate a global pandemic, the potential transmission of a deadly disease, the societal reaction and the outlook for a vaccine. Such is the case with the current war in Iran. As we see it, the important questions for the market are: How will the war progress? Will the current two-week ceasefire lead to peace or resumed figh...