Thapakorn Rujipak/iStock via Getty Images By Lynn Song , Chief Economist, Greater China External demand continues to be a key growth driver for growth But rising import costs could start to cut into growth China's GDP started 2026 off strong China's GDP came in at 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, beating the market and our expectations for a more modest start to the year. This 5.0% level wa...
Thapakorn Rujipak/iStock via Getty Images By Lynn Song , Chief Economist, Greater China External demand continues to be a key growth driver for growth But rising import costs could start to cut into growth China's GDP started 2026 off strong China's GDP came in at 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, beating the market and our expectations for a more modest start to the year. This 5.0% level was in line with the 2025 full-year growth and the fastest since the second quarter of 2025. The services sector gets the credit for this outperformance. China's tertiary industry grew 5.2% YoY in 1Q26, outpacing the 4.9% growth in the secondary industry and the 3.8% growth in the primary industry. Households rebalancing spending from goods to services could be a factor in why growth beat expectations despite the slowdown of retail sales. The breakdown of the GDP data will make for interesting reading when more details are available in a few days. We just saw China's 1Q26 trade surplus fall in YoY terms . There are also growing signs of reflation, which should be weighing on the GDP deflator. March's data show stronger-than-expected industrial activity but disappointing investment and consumption, suggesting that domestic activity remains sluggish. It's likely that 1Q26 growth is mostly insulated from the negative impact of the Iran war. China is well-placed to weather short-term disruptions but could face more pressure if energy prices remain higher for longer. We could see a greater impact of higher prices on import costs and input costs in the months ahead. However, for now, this above-expectation growth at the start of the year is positive news for China's growth, helping it achieve this year's growth target of 4.5-5.0%. It gives policymakers some buffer to work with and potentially reduces the urgency to ramp up more aggressive stimulus. Tertiary industry continued to outperform in 1Q26 Industrial activity remains bright spot in China's domestic activity data Value added...
Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, Tom Mackenzie and Adam Linton break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." (Source: Bloomberg)
Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, Tom Mackenzie and Adam Linton break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." (Source: Bloomberg)