PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images One of investors’ biggest concerns about the U.S. economy today is the private credit market. I have a unique insight here, having started my career as a Bank Examiner examining Savings & Loans in Florida in 1985, and later worked as a Commercial Credit Manager of a mid-sized bank. In this article, I will discuss: prior credit cycles the size and makeup of ...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images One of investors’ biggest concerns about the U.S. economy today is the private credit market. I have a unique insight here, having started my career as a Bank Examiner examining Savings & Loans in Florida in 1985, and later worked as a Commercial Credit Manager of a mid-sized bank. In this article, I will discuss: prior credit cycles the size and makeup of the private credit market, exposure to software companies, credit quality impact on the economy, investor reaction so far the largest business development corps (BDCs) risk profile of private credit versus bank loans current risks, and investor recommendations Prior Credit Cycles My first job in 1985 was as a government Bank Examiner in Florida, examining Savings & Loans. Remember them? It was a crazy time and place for that job, as the majority of the S&Ls there were in collapse mode due to bad commercial real estate loans. Between 1985 and 1992, over 2000 S&Ls and banks failed. It was worse for the S&Ls as they had just been granted authority to make commercial loans, and many didn’t really know what they were doing. Almost all of these failures were due to a nationwide commercial real estate bust. Between 2008 and 2012, there was another credit cycle bust, and 465 banks failed. The headlines back then were all about bad subprime loans (higher risk residential mortgages). In reality, few banks failed due to subprime loans. The failures again were almost entirely from another commercial real estate bust. The subprime hit was huge, but mostly among the largest banks, insurance companies such as AIG, and foreign investors. The point here is that almost all the bank failures in the past 75 years occurred primarily due to two commercial real estate busts, not non-real estate commercial loans, which most of private credit is. The most recent failures of 4 banks, including Silicon Valley and Signature Bank, a few years back, had little to do with lending at all. Commercial lendi...
Oselote/iStock via Getty Images After a decade of trading around the $1,000 per ounce pivot point and watching gold make higher highs, platinum futures ( XPTUSD:CUR ) on the CME’s NYMEX division broke out to the upside in June 2025 when the price rose above critical technical resistance at the February 2021 high of $1,348.20 per ounce. It took Impala Platinum Holdings Limited ( IMPUY ), one of the...
Oselote/iStock via Getty Images After a decade of trading around the $1,000 per ounce pivot point and watching gold make higher highs, platinum futures ( XPTUSD:CUR ) on the CME’s NYMEX division broke out to the upside in June 2025 when the price rose above critical technical resistance at the February 2021 high of $1,348.20 per ounce. It took Impala Platinum Holdings Limited ( IMPUY ), one of the leading platinum miners, far longer to break above its technical resistance level. Platinum and IMPUY have corrected from the late January 2026 highs, which could be a golden buying opportunity for one of the world’s leading platinum mining companies. I last wrote about IMPUY on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2025, where I concluded the following: Mining shares tend to outperform the underlying company they extract from the earth’s crust on the upside and underperform when the commodity price declines. If platinum is heading for a challenge of the 2008 high of $2,308.80, IMPUY shares are likely to continue to outperform the metal on a percentage basis on the upside. I am bullish on platinum prices but would only buy or add to long positions on price corrections. Meanwhile, I rate IMPUY shares a Buy as they should continue to rise with platinum prices. IMPUY shares traded at $10.25 on November 4, 2025, while nearby NYMEX platinum futures were at $1,551.40 per ounce. Both platinum and IMPUY shares are significantly higher in April 2026. Platinum and palladium remain in bull markets after the correction from a new record high Platinum futures surpassed the 2008 record high of $2,308.80 per ounce in December 2025, and rose to a record $2,925 per ounce in January 2026. Quarterly NYMEX Platinum Futures Chart (Barchart) The quarterly chart shows that platinum futures corrected from the late January 2026 high, but remain over the $2,100 level in April 2026. Quarterly NYMEX Palladium Futures Chart (Barchart) Nearby NYMEX palladium futures ( XPDUSD:CUR ) rose to $2,195.50 per ounce in...
Andrey Semenov/iStock via Getty Images Long-Term Fundamentals: Enduring the Best and Worst of Times The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to record highs this week as investors grew optimistic about progress in the U.S.-Iran peace talks, supported by positive economic data and a strong start to earnings season. This comes on the heels of a market gripped by extreme fear and headline-driven volatility , a...
Andrey Semenov/iStock via Getty Images Long-Term Fundamentals: Enduring the Best and Worst of Times The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to record highs this week as investors grew optimistic about progress in the U.S.-Iran peace talks, supported by positive economic data and a strong start to earnings season. This comes on the heels of a market gripped by extreme fear and headline-driven volatility , as the conflict in the Middle East escalated, oil prices surged , gold plunged, and interest rate expectations shifted. Bloomberg The recent uptick aligns with favorable post-crisis trends I discussed in my piece on the Best 5 Tech Stocks With Average Forward EPS Growth Of 197% . Panic selling during downturns can lead to financial losses and missed opportunities. The market has rebounded from geopolitical shocks dating back to Pearl Harbor. In fact, the S&P 500 has typically posted positive returns within 3 to 12 months after such events. Carson Investment Research Trying to time the market for short-term gains can be difficult and risky, especially when betting on stocks with weak fundamentals. Now might be a good time to take a longer-term view and identify stocks that have endured the best of times and the worst of times. In addition to solid competitive advantages, stocks that outperform during favorable and challenging market conditions possess exceptional fundamentals, such as robust earnings growth, solid margins, and strong return on capital – along with bullish analyst revisions. Seeking Alpha’s quantitative tools can help investors find these types of stocks. How I Chose The Top ‘Unstoppable’ Stocks In The Past 5 Years Using Seeking Alpha’s Stock Screener , I selected Strong Buy stocks with the highest five-year price returns. I only kept stocks that beat the S&P 500 in the past five calendar years and year-to-date. The three stocks in my basket returned more than 4,400%, 2,000%, and 640%, respectively, in the past five years. Seeking Alpha’s Quant Ratings are gen...
Unity’s extended Meta partnership puts VR role back in focus Unity Software (U) is back in the spotlight after announcing an extended multi-year platform support and enterprise agreement with Meta. This agreement reaffirms its position as a core content engine for Meta’s virtual reality devices. See our latest analysis for Unity Software. The Meta announcement arrives after a sharp 27.8% 1 month s...
Unity’s extended Meta partnership puts VR role back in focus Unity Software (U) is back in the spotlight after announcing an extended multi-year platform support and enterprise agreement with Meta. This agreement reaffirms its position as a core content engine for Meta’s virtual reality devices. See our latest analysis for Unity Software. The Meta announcement arrives after a sharp 27.8% 1 month share price return and a 13.6% 7 day share price return. However, the 90 day share price return...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been in focus as AI infrastructure spending gains support from suppliers like TSMC and ASML, while AMD secures large AI accelerator deals and reports record data center revenue. See our latest analysis for Advanced Micro Devices. The recent news around AI accelerators and data center growth has arrived during a powerful run in AMD shares, with an 11 day winni...
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been in focus as AI infrastructure spending gains support from suppliers like TSMC and ASML, while AMD secures large AI accelerator deals and reports record data center revenue. See our latest analysis for Advanced Micro Devices. The recent news around AI accelerators and data center growth has arrived during a powerful run in AMD shares, with an 11 day winning streak helping drive a 30 day share price return of 31.31% and a 1 year total shareholder...
Over the past month, the market saw some wild swings as investors tried to digest all the latest geopolitical conflicts, inflationary headwinds, and other macro challenges. That pressure drove many investors back toward the top blue chip dividend stocks, which can generate stable returns through choppy markets. Two of those stocks were Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) and The Williams Companies (NYSE: WM...
Over the past month, the market saw some wild swings as investors tried to digest all the latest geopolitical conflicts, inflationary headwinds, and other macro challenges. That pressure drove many investors back toward the top blue chip dividend stocks, which can generate stable returns through choppy markets. Two of those stocks were Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) and The Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) , which have rallied 15% and 18%, respectively, since the start of the year. Let's see why they're still worth buying even if the broader market struggles. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Major Advertising Agencies Settle Media Censorship Lawsuit With FTC Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and eight states secured a settlement on April 15 that will prevent three major advertising agencies from engaging in unlawful media censorship. An American flag flies at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) headquarters in Washington on...
Major Advertising Agencies Settle Media Censorship Lawsuit With FTC Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and eight states secured a settlement on April 15 that will prevent three major advertising agencies from engaging in unlawful media censorship. An American flag flies at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) headquarters in Washington on Nov. 24, 2024. Benoit Tessier/File Photo/Reuters The defendants Dentsu US, Inc., GroupM Worldwide LLC (doing business as WPP Media), and Publicis, Inc. will no longer enter into deals that require them to restrict working with certain clients , according to the settlement. “A coordinated group of woke, powerful individuals attempted to suppress that Constitutional right by manipulating ad agencies into sabotaging the reach, revenue, and credibility of conservative voices,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement released on April 15. The plaintiffs - including Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia - alleged that censorship deals between ad agencies and companies had been happening in the background during the past decade , which limited rising voices in the alternative and online media space. The lawsuit accused some of the largest ad agencies of establishing brand-safety agreements that labeled content creators as “misinformation,” making them unable to receive ad revenue. The alleged brand-safety standards were part of a campaign to demonetize prominent figures in the conservative space such as Glenn Beck, Steve Bannon, and the late Charlie Kirk , according to court documents reviewed by the Epoch Times. The campaign allegedly attempted to censor and suppress content from Fox News Channel and X, formerly Twitter. “ This is a deeply disturbing violation of antitrust laws and our Constitution, ” Paxton added. “This was an egregious attempt to control public opinion and silence those who speak out against the liberal elites ...
President Donald Trump says talks between Israel and Lebanon may happen over the next week or two. He speaks with reporters at the White House. (Source: Bloomberg)
President Donald Trump says talks between Israel and Lebanon may happen over the next week or two. He speaks with reporters at the White House. (Source: Bloomberg)
Earlier this week, Meta Platforms announced an expanded multi-year, multi-generation partnership with Broadcom to co-develop custom MTIA AI accelerator chips and Ethernet networking that will underpin Meta’s rapidly growing AI data centers through at least 2029. The scale of the agreement, including an initial commitment of over one gigawatt of custom compute capacity, underscores how deeply Broad...
Earlier this week, Meta Platforms announced an expanded multi-year, multi-generation partnership with Broadcom to co-develop custom MTIA AI accelerator chips and Ethernet networking that will underpin Meta’s rapidly growing AI data centers through at least 2029. The scale of the agreement, including an initial commitment of over one gigawatt of custom compute capacity, underscores how deeply Broadcom is embedding itself in the AI infrastructure roadmaps of the largest platforms. We’ll now...
tiero/iStock via Getty Images The stock of Credo Technology Group ( CRDO ) has been soaring over the last few weeks as AI spending remains on track and as the market rebounds from Iran war shocks. The company also announced after the close Monday that it would be acquiring DustPhotonics, a maker of silicon photonics, which are increasingly gaining importance in the data center. I think CRDO is jus...
tiero/iStock via Getty Images The stock of Credo Technology Group ( CRDO ) has been soaring over the last few weeks as AI spending remains on track and as the market rebounds from Iran war shocks. The company also announced after the close Monday that it would be acquiring DustPhotonics, a maker of silicon photonics, which are increasingly gaining importance in the data center. I think CRDO is just getting started and will continue to rise on the back of this positive upward momentum. Data by YCharts In my last piece on CRDO back in February, I discussed the company's upcoming catalysts and cheap valuation and rated it a Strong Buy. The stock has since risen by 65%, while the S&P 500 ( SPY ) was relatively flat. This appears to have been a well-timed call indeed! The reasons for the stock's recent blastoff have been varied, but the overall drive is likely that data center spending has remained strong and on track despite some macroeconomic headwinds and that market fears over Credo's place in the next era of AI infrastructure have been allayed. In this article, I'd like to provide some insight into what the company actually does and why the stock is now taking off. It's a bit hard to pinpoint a good thematic starting point for Credo to explain where it started and where it's going next, but I suppose a chronological timeline would do nicely, so let's start there. If you want to skip Credo's technological story, you can skip to the section titled "The Copper Wall." Humble Beginnings The year is 2008—AI is still colloquially known as the villain behind Skynet in the Terminator movies, and no one outside of the most hardcore researchers has even heard of an "LLM." Credo opens its doors, offering licenses on its SerDes (serializer/deserializer) IP, which provides low-power network connectivity. A few years later, around 2015, the company also begins licensing its designs for a digital signal processor ("DSP"), which is used by larger manufacturers and integrated into th...
Shares of Insteel Industries (NYSE: IIIN) fell nearly 20% by 2 p.m. today after disappointing second-quarter earnings. The results reflect broader trends likely to emerge during this earnings season. Insteel manufactures and markets steel wire reinforcing products for application in reinforced concrete structures, principally in non-residential construction. It's the kind of business with relative...
Shares of Insteel Industries (NYSE: IIIN) fell nearly 20% by 2 p.m. today after disappointing second-quarter earnings. The results reflect broader trends likely to emerge during this earnings season. Insteel manufactures and markets steel wire reinforcing products for application in reinforced concrete structures, principally in non-residential construction. It's the kind of business with relatively high fixed costs and exposure to raw material costs, particularly steel . As such, a combination of tariff costs, rising energy costs, and higher freight costs is pressuring its costs. The good news is that the company is raising prices in response (a 16.2% increase in average selling prices in the quarter), and, as CEO H.O. Woltz III noted in the earnings release, "we are comfortable with our market position that includes minimal direct import competition." Woltz, no doubt, feels that way because Insteel sells heavy products that are difficult for foreign competitors to ship into the country at competitive prices. Continue reading