designer491/iStock via Getty Images May saw a return to more pronounced moves in global government bond markets, with most 10-year benchmark yields declining by double-digit basis points amid evolving growth and inflation expectations. Italy’s 10-year government bond yield recorded the largest move of the month, dropping by more than 22 basis points to 3.64%. Economic data – including PMIs from S&...
designer491/iStock via Getty Images May saw a return to more pronounced moves in global government bond markets, with most 10-year benchmark yields declining by double-digit basis points amid evolving growth and inflation expectations. Italy’s 10-year government bond yield recorded the largest move of the month, dropping by more than 22 basis points to 3.64%. Economic data – including PMIs from S&P Global for Italian manufacturing and services - pointed to resilient activity. Furthermore, revised ISTAT figures showed growth of 0.3% in the first quarter, matching the Q4 2025 figure. Following closely its Italian equivalent, the Greek 10-year bond yield fell by nearly 22 basis points to 3.48%. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Greece climbed to 53.3 in May, rebounding from a seven-month low of 52.4 in April. Across the euro area, 10-year benchmark yields moved lower throughout May, with those for Germany finishing the month 10 basis points lower at 2.93%. Data from Destatis showed GDP growth of 0.3% in Q1 2026, in sharp contrast to a decline of 0.3% in Q4 2025. Business activity fell for a second straight month across the services sector; manufacturing stalled, as uncertainty and soaring costs associated with the war in the Middle East acted as headwinds to demand. The European Commission's Spring Forecast lowered growth expectations and raised inflation projections across several member states, highlighting the continued challenges facing policymakers. Market participants and economists anticipate a rate hike at June’s monetary policy meeting, although some policymakers, like ECB Governing Council member Peter Kažimír, have emphasized there’s no fixed path and policy will be data dependent. Roderick Joniaux, Head of European Government Bonds and Supranational Products at Tradeweb, said, "Some of the volatility markets experienced earlier in the year returned in May. There remains considerable uncertainty across global markets, with geopolitical developments contin...
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to another installment of our BDC Market Weekly Review, where we discuss market activity in the Business Development Company [BDC] sector from both the bottom-up, highlighting individual news and events, as well as the top-down, providing an overview of the broader market. We also try to add some historical context as well as relevant themes that look to b...
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to another installment of our BDC Market Weekly Review, where we discuss market activity in the Business Development Company [BDC] sector from both the bottom-up, highlighting individual news and events, as well as the top-down, providing an overview of the broader market. We also try to add some historical context as well as relevant themes that look to be driving the market or that investors ought to be mindful of. This update covers the period through the last week of May. Market Action BDCs outperformed all other income sectors this week as all but two stocks in our coverage rallied. The rally lifted historic underperformers PSEC, TCPC, and HRZN. Systematic Income The median valuation remains depressed and has only been convincingly lower during recessionary periods. Systematic Income Market Themes One clear dynamic that has emerged by looking at BDC holdings in our Income Portfolios is that relative valuations of a number of holdings have improved significantly over the holding period. This is true of BCSF, BBDC, GBDC, FDUS, NCDL, MSDL, and CGBD to a lesser degree. In one sense, this is good since you’d rather the market validate your thesis than capitulate to the market’s thesis (though this is sometimes required as well if the market turns out to be correct). It’s also good in the sense of generating outperformance, which all but masochists can admit is nice. However, there is also a downside to having your positions outperform the sector. One downside is that the yield on offer by the investment is now much less appealing, in both absolute terms and relative to the sector. Some investors like to talk about yield-on-cost, which wouldn’t change over a period of outperformance; however, this is a meaningless metric that confuses capital gains with yield today. If your yield-on-cost is above today’s yield, all that’s happened is your investment now has a lower yield going forward than when you bought it because it has ap...
matejmo/iStock via Getty Images Arteris ( AIP ) is one of the companies in the semiconductor industry I have been following. Business-wise, the company does not manufacture chips, but supplies an important piece of technology design that helps orchestrate and route data movement among components within a chip, which is the so-called Network-on-Chip (NoC) interconnect intellectual property (IP). Th...
matejmo/iStock via Getty Images Arteris ( AIP ) is one of the companies in the semiconductor industry I have been following. Business-wise, the company does not manufacture chips, but supplies an important piece of technology design that helps orchestrate and route data movement among components within a chip, which is the so-called Network-on-Chip (NoC) interconnect intellectual property (IP). This is a uniquely interesting positioning in the semiconductor value chain, in my view, since it allows AIP to benefit from the overall AI trends without competing directly with the hyperscalers or large chip makers. To generate revenues, AIP would then license its offering to semiconductor manufacturing players like Renesas or AMD, which then use the technology design to manage the data flow within the SoCs (Systems-on-Chip) in their chip-making process. As such, AIP’s main revenue stream comes from the licensing, support, and maintenance activities, with small contributions from production royalties and professional services. Since its 2021 IPO, share price has generally been volatile. Despite reaching around $26 per share that year, it would then plunge to under $10 for the next two years. Since last year, however, AIP has shown some upward momentum, with the stock continuing to test new highs. Still trading around $7.7 in June last year, AIP is today trading close to $37 per share, representing an almost 5x increase in share price. In a similar fashion, AIP has rallied to drive an almost 136% return YTD. I initiate my coverage with a buy rating. My 1-year price target of $41 presents over 11.2% upside from the current price of around $37 per share. Financial Reviews As of the latest quarterly release in Q1 2026, it appears that fundamentals have improved noticeably. In particular, top-line growth has been solid as of Q1 and the management also announced an upward revision on its FY 2026 revenue guidance , expecting revenue to come in at between $91 million and $95 millio...
The past eight months have admittedly been a tough pill for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) investors to swallow. The world's most popular cryptocurrency is down 47% over that period and recently dropped below $70,000. Bitcoin ETF outflows are accelerating, and even Michael Saylor -- arguably the biggest Bitcoin bull on the planet -- has started to sell some of his Bitcoin. Despite all that, I'm buying Bitc...
The past eight months have admittedly been a tough pill for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) investors to swallow. The world's most popular cryptocurrency is down 47% over that period and recently dropped below $70,000. Bitcoin ETF outflows are accelerating, and even Michael Saylor -- arguably the biggest Bitcoin bull on the planet -- has started to sell some of his Bitcoin. Despite all that, I'm buying Bitcoin right now. I'm not expecting Bitcoin to recover immediately, but when it does -- as I think it inevitably will -- it's going to be a coiled spring ready to bounce higher. In the crypto market, it's still "Bitcoin season." That means it's time to load up on Bitcoin and wait for the broader crypto market to recover. Later, once Bitcoin has ignited a broader crypto recovery, it becomes " altcoin season ." That's the time to rotate into riskier altcoins . Continue reading
John Blottman/iStock via Getty Images Firefly ( FLY ) stock has dropped from ~$48 per share after its recent follow-on offering to ~$36 today, with some uncertainty surrounding the sector due to the SpaceX IPO. To me, that drop now offers a discount to the fair value of FLY, leading me to rate the stock a BUY with a 12-month price target of $53. Firefly doesn't seem to just be a discounted rocket ...
John Blottman/iStock via Getty Images Firefly ( FLY ) stock has dropped from ~$48 per share after its recent follow-on offering to ~$36 today, with some uncertainty surrounding the sector due to the SpaceX IPO. To me, that drop now offers a discount to the fair value of FLY, leading me to rate the stock a BUY with a 12-month price target of $53. Firefly doesn't seem to just be a discounted rocket company, with the market appearing to be valuing the company purely as a launch vehicle play despite differentiated offerings. With the purchase of SciTec, Firefly adds AI-enabled defense software to an existing platform that already includes launch vehicles, lunar landers, and in-orbit vehicles. This could play a large role in overall revenue, especially with the addition of a Space Force OTA agreement tied to the Golden Dome architecture. Compared to other space companies, Firefly represents a different level of risk with diversification into other markets. Where Firefly is Today Firefly became publicly traded in August of 2025 in what was one of the biggest space IPOs ever. Under CEO Jason Kim, Firefly has been moving quickly, marking accomplishments such as the first successful commercial moon landing in March 2025, the launch of its Alpha Flight 7 spacecraft in Q1 2026, and now, the close of the SciTec deal for ~$855 million. As of Q1 2026, Firefly’s business is divided into three separate segments: launch, spacecraft, and defense. This segmentation is important because revenue generated from a pure-play launch business model would typically have a very irregular and unpredictable income stream, depending on successful missions. The addition of the recurring government software and services income stream provided by the SciTec segment offers Firefly additional stability not all other competitors can offer. Firefly's platform (FLY) The Revenue Ramp is Real The most important goal Firefly had to reach in 2026 was that the backlog could be converted to revenue. Q1 results...
The SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) could come as soon as June 12. With the company looking to raise $75 billion at around a $1.8 trillion valuation, SpaceX will be the largest IPO in history. SpaceX will heavily disrupt markets through the capital it raises as well as at the index level through eventual inclusion in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq-100 , the latter of which consists ...
The SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) could come as soon as June 12. With the company looking to raise $75 billion at around a $1.8 trillion valuation, SpaceX will be the largest IPO in history. SpaceX will heavily disrupt markets through the capital it raises as well as at the index level through eventual inclusion in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq-100 , the latter of which consists of the 100 largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on the Nasdaq exchange. But even if SpaceX achieves a $1.8 trillion valuation , it wouldn't crack the top three holdings in S&P 500 index funds or even growth-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as the Vanguard Growth ETF or Vanguard Meta Cap Growth ETF , as Nvidia , Alphabet , Apple , Microsoft , Amazon , and Broadcom are all worth more . Continue reading
U.S. EV sales fell 27% in Q1 2026 after federal tax credits ended, creating diverging outlooks for Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla amid continued global EV growth.
U.S. EV sales fell 27% in Q1 2026 after federal tax credits ended, creating diverging outlooks for Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla amid continued global EV growth.
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images You would have needed a pole vault to get over that bar. The expectations bar, that is. On Wednesday after the market close, US chipmaker Broadcom ( AVGO ) released its sales and earnings report for the second quarter (second fiscal quarter, corresponding to the first calendar quarter ended March 31). Broadcom’s sales rose 48 percent year-on-year, and the c...
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images You would have needed a pole vault to get over that bar. The expectations bar, that is. On Wednesday after the market close, US chipmaker Broadcom ( AVGO ) released its sales and earnings report for the second quarter (second fiscal quarter, corresponding to the first calendar quarter ended March 31). Broadcom’s sales rose 48 percent year-on-year, and the company’s forward guidance for the quarter to come topped consensus estimates. The Palo Alto-based chipmaker is smack in the middle of the hottest story – arguably the only story – driving US stock market growth this year. Pretty good results, one might have thought. But one would have been mistaken, at least in the context of what occupies the mind of the market. Broadcom shares plunged more than 12 percent on Thursday, one of the biggest single-day losses on record, as investors apparently decided that even though the forward estimates beat the median forecast, they didn’t beat the most optimistic estimates. The freefall is continuing in the early hours of trading on Friday, and the stock is now around 17 percent off where it started on Thursday. Here We Go Again with Productivity The eye-popping magnitude of the Broadcom drop notwithstanding, the context around it is something we have seen time and again ever since OpenAI ( OPENAI ) introduced ChatGPT to the world back in the latter months of 2022. Every now and then, the furious pace of investment in AI infrastructure and compute – the so-called “tokens” that are the basic units of AI brainpower – has been popped by a counternarrative questioning whether all this money was ever going to produce something genuinely productive and business-enhancing for its end users. There was a Goldman Sachs research piece asking that exact question all the way back in the summer of 2023. Last year we had an MIT report in which 95 percent of companies using generative AI in some form claimed that their pilot programs were not delivering ...