Kevin Warsh will get his first major public platform as Federal Reserve Chair nominee next week to address his longstanding concerns over the central bank’s outsized market footprint. Warsh, who has urged for a sharp rollback of the Fed’s $6.6 trillion crisis-era balance sheet, arrives as policymakers are starting to pivot toward regulatory changes to curb the central bank’s market role. While his...
Kevin Warsh will get his first major public platform as Federal Reserve Chair nominee next week to address his longstanding concerns over the central bank’s outsized market footprint. Warsh, who has urged for a sharp rollback of the Fed’s $6.6 trillion crisis-era balance sheet, arrives as policymakers are starting to pivot toward regulatory changes to curb the central bank’s market role. While his Senate confirmation hearing is more likely to focus on interest-rate policy, there are signs his balance-sheet views are gathering momentum within the central bank even as resistance to wide-ranging reforms persists. The Fed stopped reducing its portfolio last year after reserves commercial banks hold with the central bank dropped to levels it judged too thin to absorb market shocks. That sparked a wider question across the Fed and Wall Street: how much cash banks should hold. Too little can send short-term lending rates higher and spread stress through the system; too much leaves the Fed’s balance sheet larger than necessary and ties up capital. The discussion has shifted toward “a debate that’s more focused on financial industry regulation and about whether regulations that require financial institutions to hold large amounts of liquidity are optimal, or whether they can be refined,” said James Egelhof , chief US economist at BNP Paribas. It’s a remarkable shift given how sensitive money markets have been to even small liquidity changes. That was evident in the 2019 blowup in the market for repurchase agreements when a gradual drop in bank reserves sent short-term lending rates skyrocketing, forcing the Fed to step in to ease funding strains. Against this backdrop, Warsh’s hearing carries extra weight. A former Fed governor, he has sharply criticized the bank’s asset growth over the years and he may find some allies among current colleagues. Governor Stephen Miran last month introduced a blueprint for easing liquidity requirements, while Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Mi...
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is set to report fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings on April 29, with investors closely watching whether accelerating artificial intelligence adoption can offset concerns around moderating cloud growth and heavy AI-related spending, according to Bank of...
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is set to report fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings on April 29, with investors closely watching whether accelerating artificial intelligence adoption can offset concerns around moderating cloud growth and heavy AI-related spending, according to Bank of...
Gri-spb/iStock via Getty Images Brent oil prices ( CO1:COM ) are expected to settle around $80 per barrel over the next two years, according to Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research. The forecast comes as markets react to the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening following a period of heightened uncertainty. In an interview with CNBC, Pies explained that the reopening allows ...
Gri-spb/iStock via Getty Images Brent oil prices ( CO1:COM ) are expected to settle around $80 per barrel over the next two years, according to Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research. The forecast comes as markets react to the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening following a period of heightened uncertainty. In an interview with CNBC, Pies explained that the reopening allows the market to avoid what could have been a far more severe supply disruption. He noted that the longer the strait remained closed, the higher the risk of elevated long-term oil prices, making the resolution a significant relief for energy markets. While current prices remain slightly above the $80 level, Pies said the market tends to reach equilibrium quickly. “I think long term, Brent’s going to settle in around $80 a barrel,” he said, adding that this average would likely hold for the next two years. Beyond oil, Pies argued that the declining crude prices ( CO1:COM ), ( CL1:COM ) strengthen the case for equities ( SP500 ), ( COMP:IND ), ( DJI ). He described the development as something that “amplifies the equity bull case,” pointing to recent positive momentum in the broader stock market as evidence that a new rally may be underway. Supporting his bullish outlook, Pies highlighted that earnings have grown 9% year-to-date even as the market experienced a correction. He noted that the price-to-earnings ratio corrected by 18%, a rare occurrence outside of Fed tightening or a recession, which he views as a reset that positions the market for further gains. Despite the recent volatility, 3Fourteen Research is maintaining its year-end index target of 7,850 for the S&P 500 ( SP500 ). Pies concluded that current conditions, including reset positioning and improving fundamentals, have “the looks of the next leg of the bull market.” More on Crude Oil Futures, Brent Futures Intraday Analysis: WTI And Brent Oil Bounce With U.S.-Iran News Still Awaited - What's Next? New Highs, Old F...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of State Street ( STT ) have been an excellent performer over the past year, gaining about 80%, recovering strongly from the April 2025 lows. The company’s low-risk business model, improved efficiency, and benefits from rising markets have all helped to support results and increase investor enthusiasm. Solid Q1 results added to that optimism Frida...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of State Street ( STT ) have been an excellent performer over the past year, gaining about 80%, recovering strongly from the April 2025 lows. The company’s low-risk business model, improved efficiency, and benefits from rising markets have all helped to support results and increase investor enthusiasm. Solid Q1 results added to that optimism Friday with shares up over 2% in early trading. I last covered State Street in January , rating them a “hold” but recommending buying at $127 or lower, which was reached several weeks ago. With the stock up to $145, that proved to be a good entry level, making now an appropriate time to revisit STT. Seeking Alpha In the company’s first quarter , State Street earned $2.84, which beat estimates by $0.20 as revenue grew 16% to $3.8 billion. Alongside Bank of New York Mellon ( BK ), and Northern Trust ( NTRS ), State Street is one of the three main custody banks. These banks are unique institutions essential to the smooth operation of the US financial system, by holding assets on behalf of clients. Unlike traditional banks, they do not have retail banking or lending businesses, making them much less exposed to credit quality. Speaking to its size, STT now has $54.5 trillion of assets under custody/administration. This was up 17% from last year, mainly thanks to strength in markets. It also has won about $2.2 trillion of assets over the past year, or a ~4% organic growth rate, a very healthy rate given the maturity of the business. As a result, servicing fees were up 11% from last year to $1.4 billion. State Street In other words, revenue grew ~5% below the pace of asset growth. While some of this reflects the timing of market moves intra-quarter (as clients are typically billed in arrears), fees do generally grow more slowly than assets, given the fierce competition for AUC. Plus, the business has significant operating leverage (when the market rises 10%, the cost of servicing those...
The rising costs of RAM and other computing components are pushing up the price of Meta's Quest VR headsets, which the company says will increase by $50–$100 (about 12–20 percent) starting on April 19. In announcing that price increase on Thursday , the company cited the "global surge in the price of critical components—specifically memory chips—[that] is impacting almost every category of consume...
The rising costs of RAM and other computing components are pushing up the price of Meta's Quest VR headsets, which the company says will increase by $50–$100 (about 12–20 percent) starting on April 19. In announcing that price increase on Thursday , the company cited the "global surge in the price of critical components—specifically memory chips—[that] is impacting almost every category of consumer electronics, including VR." But unlike many of the other tech companies that have been pushed into similar price increases in recent months , Meta's own spending priorities are at least partly to blame for the rising prices of those components. The company's recent hard pivot to the "AI superintelligence" race has directly contributed to the conditions that are now making its own Quest headsets more expensive. Spending like a drunk sailor In January, Meta announced that it plans to spend $115 billion to $135 billion on capital expenditures this year, up significantly from $72 billion in 2025 and just $28 billion as recently as 2023. The vast majority of that investment is going into AI infrastructure, including a recent $21 billion in new investment in data center company CoreWeave (in addition to $14.2 billion originally committed) and an additional $10 billion recently committed to a planned El Paso data center (up from $1.5 billion initially). Read full article Comments
Getty Images iShares International Select Dividend ETF ( IDV ) tracks the Dow Jones EPAC Select Dividend Index , which is composed of relatively high dividend-paying equities in non-U.S. developed markets. At present, IDV trades at a trailing dividend yield of ~4.58% . More importantly, however, the current SEC yield stands at ~5.11%, reflecting the quality of unitholder distributions. Further, th...
Getty Images iShares International Select Dividend ETF ( IDV ) tracks the Dow Jones EPAC Select Dividend Index , which is composed of relatively high dividend-paying equities in non-U.S. developed markets. At present, IDV trades at a trailing dividend yield of ~4.58% . More importantly, however, the current SEC yield stands at ~5.11%, reflecting the quality of unitholder distributions. Further, the ETF had a significant run-up over the last year, with total returns reaching around ~50%. Even post this, however, the ETF still trades at meaningfully lower valuation multiples versus the S&P 500 and other broad-based U.S. stock market indices. Fund Facts (Authors - Public Sources) The difference between value and growth, when described in a contextual manner, is at historically high levels, along with the difference between U.S. and ex-U.S. stocks. This suggests that allocating to ex-U.S. stocks, those also having a value-oriented characteristic, such as lower multiples and higher yields, such as those held by IDV, continues to be a relatively better proposition when allocating to equities as compared to growth-oriented indices such as the S&P 500 at present. Portfolio Construction, Strategy, and Performance This is how the fund’s allocation looks. The noteworthy points are the fund’s exposure to the United Kingdom and other European nations, whose equities are not only more attractive in terms of valuation parameters but have also seen a strengthening of their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar over recent period This tends to create a dual advantage for a U.S.-based investor. In addition, the holdings of IDV are generally large, established corporations that have sustained their business prospects across cycles. A meaningful exposure to the energy sector might also be seen to be of interest at the present juncture. Portfolio, sector& geography (FactSheet IDV) The other important aspect is that, unlike many other international funds, IDV, at least to the extent pos...
Earnings Call Insights: Ally Financial (ALLY) Q1 2026 Management View "One quarter into 2026, our results confirm we're on the right path and support my confidence in our outlook even as the macro environment remains dynamic." (CEO Michael Rhodes) "Adjusted EPS of $1.11 was up 90% year-over-year." (CEO Rhodes) "Margin of 3.52% was impacted by the lease headwinds we discussed last quarter, but we r...
Earnings Call Insights: Ally Financial (ALLY) Q1 2026 Management View "One quarter into 2026, our results confirm we're on the right path and support my confidence in our outlook even as the macro environment remains dynamic." (CEO Michael Rhodes) "Adjusted EPS of $1.11 was up 90% year-over-year." (CEO Rhodes) "Margin of 3.52% was impacted by the lease headwinds we discussed last quarter, but we remain confident in our ability to deliver a sustainable upper 3% margin, the final lever of our mid-teens thesis." (CEO Rhodes) "4.4 million applications reflect another record quarter" and "consumer originations of $11.5 billion, up 13% year-over-year despite a decline in industry light vehicle sales and healthy competition." (CEO Rhodes) "Written premium of $389 million, marking a first quarter record for Ally." (CEO Rhodes) "In Corporate Finance, we delivered a 26% ROE while growing the portfolio to $13.7 billion, up roughly 6% quarter-over-quarter." (CEO Rhodes) "We ended the quarter with $146 billion in retail deposit balances" and "Retail deposits continue to represent nearly 90% of total funding and 92% are FDIC insured." (CEO Rhodes) "Net financing revenue, excluding OID of $1.6 billion was up 8% year-over-year" and "Adjusted provision expense of $474 million was down $23 million year-over-year." (CFO Russell Hutchinson) "Earlier this week, we announced a quarterly dividend of $0.30 for the second quarter of 2026" and "we repurchased shares worth $147 million." (CFO Hutchinson) Outlook "Guidance remains consistent with what we shared 3 months ago." (CFO Hutchinson) "For the year, we expect 3.60% to 3.70%" and "as you do the mathematics on that, that very much implies that we exit the year at or above the high end of that range." (CFO Hutchinson) "We've left our retail auto NCO guide for '26 unchanged at 1.8% to 2%." (CFO Hutchinson) "Movement in benchmark rates may impact the timing and pace of future NIM expansion" and "our baseline assumptions reflect the March 31...
PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images Investment Thesis The business of Camtek Ltd. ( CAMT ) is actually quality control; they manufacture the systems that semiconductor companies use to identify defects and gauge precision at different phases of the chip-making process. On the face of it, that may not sound very exciting. However, to me, the smaller, faster, and more complicated the chip, the higher the p...
PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images Investment Thesis The business of Camtek Ltd. ( CAMT ) is actually quality control; they manufacture the systems that semiconductor companies use to identify defects and gauge precision at different phases of the chip-making process. On the face of it, that may not sound very exciting. However, to me, the smaller, faster, and more complicated the chip, the higher the price of making a mistake. That is what makes the tools of Camtek less of a commodity and more of a necessity, especially in the field of advanced packaging, where stacking and interconnecting dies need a degree of precision that cannot be eyeballed. The early 2026 order announcements were what made me change my interest to conviction, with reservations. A tier-1 IDM has ordered Hawk systems to the tune of $45 million to use in AI applications, and first-quarter OSAT orders have reached over $90 million, the majority of which is associated with CoWoS-like packaging to use in similar applications. The two pieces of data combined give me an idea that demand is not concentrated but broad-based. One huge customer acquisition is simple to ignore; two separate demand streams that target the identical set of applications are more difficult to brush off. Assuming that dynamic is true (which I believe it will be, at least in the near future with the current AI infrastructure buildout), then Camtek can be said to have the earning power to warrant a premium multiple. Business Overview Products and Services (Camtek) The tools Camtek makes are used by the semiconductor companies to check and measure the chips as they are made . Chipmakers employ their machines to detect defects and ensure that chips are produced with utmost precision. Camtek is more or less a gateway to these manufacturers. It seems that the trend of making things smaller without compromising reliability and performance that semiconductor companies are headed for is becoming more difficult to get right. As the chips beco...