Evgeny Gromov/iStock via Getty Images This has been quite a stretch. And that's a double-meaning, since I mean stretch of time and a very stretched S&P 500. As it turns out, recent history might be a guide. So here are some broad macro observations I've been making here for a long time. I think this an ideal time to connect a lot of dots for readers. I'm going to focus this article on a few things...
Evgeny Gromov/iStock via Getty Images This has been quite a stretch. And that's a double-meaning, since I mean stretch of time and a very stretched S&P 500. As it turns out, recent history might be a guide. So here are some broad macro observations I've been making here for a long time. I think this an ideal time to connect a lot of dots for readers. I'm going to focus this article on a few things : 1. Recent "spikey" moves like we've seen the past couple of months, and what I see as the range of possible outcomes ("ROPO" I call it) as spring speeds toward summer. 2. Show just how narrow this market still is, despite rumors to the contrary. I am not in sync with the parade of TV gurus who insist that the market is "broadening out." For a day or a couple weeks at a time, maybe. But as a strategist, I live in the world of what is sustained, not what gets today's headlines, which are soon forgotten. If you're looking for "stock market survival tips," there's one of my best. 3. How to embrace what the markets are doing right now, and a glimpse into what I'm doing personally. And what I have been doing. NOTE: if you tend not to like pictures, graphs, charts (technical and otherwise), hopefully you will like them a bit more after seeing how I plot this out. And if you do "speak chart language" as I do fluently, I hope this really helps you see some things that may not be so obvious. Especially in the mainstream. Let's start with a quirky little indicator I've used sparingly, but it fits nicely here. That's the 12-day rolling return of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ). We just had more than 12 straight good market days. And not including Friday's rally, an 11% gain in 12 trading days is quite a feat. Data by YCharts So rare, in fact that in this chart going back as far as SPY does (1993, my first year managing other people's money), that has only happened once. It was coming out of the initial shock of the pandemic in 2020. Zooming in, however, we see that just last year, we had ne...
WANAN YOSSINGKUM/iStock via Getty Images The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace talks are pushing oil back into focus, adding pressure to inflation and interest rate expectations. Hafiz Noordin, Portfolio Manager, Active Fixed Income at TD Asset Management, breaks down the impact on monetary policy and the bond market. Transcript Greg Bonnell: Markets continue to focus on the ongoing uncertai...
WANAN YOSSINGKUM/iStock via Getty Images The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace talks are pushing oil back into focus, adding pressure to inflation and interest rate expectations. Hafiz Noordin, Portfolio Manager, Active Fixed Income at TD Asset Management, breaks down the impact on monetary policy and the bond market. Transcript Greg Bonnell: Markets continue to focus on the ongoing uncertainty around the US-Iran peace talks, with rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz putting oil back in focus. Now, that's adding a fresh layer of uncertainty around inflation, central banks, and the path for interest rates. Joining us now for what it all means from a fixed income perspective, Hafiz Noordin of TD Asset Management. Always great to see you, Hafiz. Thanks for coming in. Hafiz Noordin: It's great to be back. Greg Bonnell: We got a lot going on, as I was just spelling out in the introduction to bringing you into the conversation. How are bond markets reacting to this latest escalation in the Street? Hafiz Noordin: Well, it's definitely been a ride, for sure, this year, but it's kind of interesting. You kind of see where Canadian 10-year bond yields are right now, 3.4%. And guess where we were when we started the year? 3.4%. So, of course, within that we've had a lot of movements. Before the war, bond yields went down all the way to about 3.1. And then with the escalation in the war in March, got as high as 3.6. So why all of this volatility? It's been the same story in the US, other markets as well. Japan, for instance, where yields are actually higher year-to-date, all because they import a lot of oil. So oil, as you said, has been really driving the bus here. And what the bond market is doing when it sees oil shocks, it's the classic reaction we've seen over history-- the bond market right away starts to price bond yields higher. And the reason is that they're pricing the potential for central banks to have to hike interest rates to potentially contain inflat...
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has had strong momentum over the last year, with shares trading up more than 52%. After the company's first-quarter 2026 earnings report, however, the response was muted, with the stock price slightly lower following the results' release. With momentum temporarily stalling, here's what to consider before investing in Johnson & Johnson . Continue reading
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has had strong momentum over the last year, with shares trading up more than 52%. After the company's first-quarter 2026 earnings report, however, the response was muted, with the stock price slightly lower following the results' release. With momentum temporarily stalling, here's what to consider before investing in Johnson & Johnson . Continue reading
AI infrastructure is a huge part of the market, and several companies are making a fortune from it right now. One of those is Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) , which recently reported blowout earnings. Applied Digital is also set up to make money from this trend over the long term, but is it worth an investment right now? Let's take a look. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
AI infrastructure is a huge part of the market, and several companies are making a fortune from it right now. One of those is Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) , which recently reported blowout earnings. Applied Digital is also set up to make money from this trend over the long term, but is it worth an investment right now? Let's take a look. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
After the attempted arson attack on a London synagogue, communities remain determined that ‘building higher walls’ will not stem rising tide of antisemitism “How good and how wonderful it is when friends sit together,” reads a quote from the Psalms painted high on the wall inside Finchley Reform Synagogue (FRS). For the congregation gathering in a cheerful hubbub before its Shabbat service on Frid...
After the attempted arson attack on a London synagogue, communities remain determined that ‘building higher walls’ will not stem rising tide of antisemitism “How good and how wonderful it is when friends sit together,” reads a quote from the Psalms painted high on the wall inside Finchley Reform Synagogue (FRS). For the congregation gathering in a cheerful hubbub before its Shabbat service on Friday evening, that felt like an especially apt sentiment. Three days after the synagogue was the victim of an attempted firebombing, hundreds of members made an extra effort to get together in determined if slightly nervy solidarity, joined by guests including local politicians, other faith leaders, police officers – and one particularly special group of neighbours. Continue reading...
magnez2/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images American Express ( AXP ) shares have been soft YTD. Earnings are next week on April 23 and the stock is looking to step up to regain some much-needed momentum. As geopolitical tensions have largely defused, the stock has bounced off the lows, up 8% this week alone. While I could paint a picture of why now is still an attractive entry point, there are seve...
magnez2/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images American Express ( AXP ) shares have been soft YTD. Earnings are next week on April 23 and the stock is looking to step up to regain some much-needed momentum. As geopolitical tensions have largely defused, the stock has bounced off the lows, up 8% this week alone. While I could paint a picture of why now is still an attractive entry point, there are several concerns I have about the upcoming earnings report that may pause the recent rally. With that being said, I think any dip could be short-lived and would be a buyer on weakness. Overview and Setup Into Earnings The company's total billed business can be broken down into three segments - consumer services, commercial services, and international. Quite simply, this is the domestic spending by consumers, businesses, and then both of those groups in an international setting. The more spending that happens in a given quarter, the better AXP performs. Despite everything that's been happening in the last year - from tariffs to international conflicts - transaction growth across the business has been remarkably resilient. While new card growth in Q4 in the US was a little slower than the prior four-quarter trend (1.3 million vs. ~1.5 million trailing four-quarter average), they were still able to put up notably positive results. Investor Presentation Source: Investor Presentation The issue that concerns me ahead of earnings is sequential spending developments. Given the international debacle that has been the Iran war and the DHS shutdown causing friction at US airports, let alone higher domestic and global gas prices, there could be pressure on all aspects of the business when American Express goes to report next week. The international division had a 12% growth rate in Q4, much more than the 9% the US consumer services segment put up, as well as just 3% growth for the commercial services segment. So, this has been accretive to growth and a faltering in international could lead...
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and news that Iran allegedly decided to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping sent risky assets surging anew on Friday. This surge extended a rally that pushed the S&P 500 to a fresh record and fueling its biggest monthly advance since 2020. Bloomberg TV Anchor Dani Burger and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike M...
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and news that Iran allegedly decided to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping sent risky assets surging anew on Friday. This surge extended a rally that pushed the S&P 500 to a fresh record and fueling its biggest monthly advance since 2020. Bloomberg TV Anchor Dani Burger and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone join David Gura and Christina Ruffini on Bloomberg This Weekend to discuss. (Source: Bloomberg)
Iranian Gunboats Open Fire On Tanker As Hormuz Closure Sparks Maritime Chaos Summary: Two Iranian gunboats Open Fire on a tanker near Oman Friday : Hormuz Open; Saturday : Hormuz Closed Iranian Forces Open Fire On Tanker The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports that a tanker was " approached by 2 IRGC gunboats, with no VHF challenge, and then fired upon ." UKMTO did not provide any further...
Iranian Gunboats Open Fire On Tanker As Hormuz Closure Sparks Maritime Chaos Summary: Two Iranian gunboats Open Fire on a tanker near Oman Friday : Hormuz Open; Saturday : Hormuz Closed Iranian Forces Open Fire On Tanker The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reports that a tanker was " approached by 2 IRGC gunboats, with no VHF challenge, and then fired upon ." UKMTO did not provide any further details about the two Iranian vessels that fired on the tanker or the type of weapons used in the maritime incident, which was reported to have occurred 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman. Assume that President Trump is about to become absolutely furious on Truth Social. One can also assume that backchanneling and behind-the-scenes talks are not going well if an incident like this occurred ahead of the U.S.-Iran weekend negotiations. Hormuz Closed (Again) The Trump administration’s " baffle 'em with bullshit" methodology has been on full display, as the reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint on Friday drove a broad risk-on in markets: US equities soared, crude collapsed, and Treasury yields declined, based on the assumption that disruption to global energy flows had eased. However, as of early Saturday morning, those moves may prove premature. The Wall Street Journal reports that the world’s most important maritime chokepoint is once again closed to commercial transit. About 20 ships waiting to enter the Persian Gulf through the maritime chokepoint have turned back toward Oman after Iran’s military declared the waterway closed again, amid a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. And rejected: the two tankers taking the neutral route, Minerva Evropi and Nissos Keros, have turned around; the Sanmar Herald which appears to be taking the Iran-sanctioned Larak island route is proceeding. https://t.co/aceBI7ki0B pic.twitter.com/gmkM37iA1U — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 18, 2026 The OSINT community on X is reporting a Hormuz closure as well... A bit of chaos in Hormuz this morning as nearl...
tum3123/iStock via Getty Images By Sammy Suzuki, CFA Transcript Q: After two strong years for emerging-market equities, what’s different this time? Sammy Suzuki: I believe EM equities are likely to continue to do well relative to the developed markets. EM is up mainly because the US dollar started to weaken, and I expect that to continue. There are many themes that are going to be driving EM equit...
tum3123/iStock via Getty Images By Sammy Suzuki, CFA Transcript Q: After two strong years for emerging-market equities, what’s different this time? Sammy Suzuki: I believe EM equities are likely to continue to do well relative to the developed markets. EM is up mainly because the US dollar started to weaken, and I expect that to continue. There are many themes that are going to be driving EM equity returns in the future. You have corporate governance reform in Korea, you have AI-related names in Taiwan, you have friendshoring in Mexico. And there are many, many things that will drive the returns going forward. I also think the backdrop is really positive because EM has been out of favor for so long, the valuations are still very attractive. Q: Where does EM stand in the AI value chain? Are there opportunities there? Sammy Suzuki: There are actually a surprising number of AI beneficiaries in the emerging markets, and people might not really think of that. We call this backdoor AI. Many of the manufacturers of the products that support AI are based in Asia. So not only the semiconductors, but all of the components that go around that are mostly made in Asia, and many of them are world leaders in their own right. Even things like power supply, limiting the thermal loss in your power supply is becoming an important design, limiting considerations for data centers. So that’s another backdoor AI play. Another constraint is energy or power. We don’t have enough power for the data centers to run. Producers of energy, as well as all of the supporting actors for the energy value chain, could be distant AI plays as well. Q: Does AI pose risks to EM investors? I think the largest risk that investors face today is really this question about whether there’s an AI bubble. And that’s true for investors investing in the United States as well as those investing in the emerging markets as well. And therefore I believe it is really important to not put your eggs into seven stocks or a ...
Olivier Le Moal/iStock via Getty Images Note: The stocks shortlisted and highlighted in this article are not buy recommendations per se but rather candidates for further research. Before making any investments, please use due diligence, considering your personal goals and risk tolerance. Also, some sections in the article may be repetitive from month to month for the benefit of the new readers. Th...
Olivier Le Moal/iStock via Getty Images Note: The stocks shortlisted and highlighted in this article are not buy recommendations per se but rather candidates for further research. Before making any investments, please use due diligence, considering your personal goals and risk tolerance. Also, some sections in the article may be repetitive from month to month for the benefit of the new readers. The regular readers could skip them. However, we recommend that first-time readers refer to our BLOGPOST here to get a detailed explanation of our selection methodology/process and additional criteria for Dividend Growth Stocks. Introduction: Every month, we start with about 400 to 500 dividend-paying stocks and use our proprietary and unique filtering criteria to bring down the number of selections to a small subset of about 20 stocks. The emphasis here is on high growth rather than high yield. Generally, we end up with stocks that pay dividend yields in the range of 1% to 1.5%, which is in line with what the S&P500 pays as well. These 20 stocks are from diverse sectors and industries, but they all have one aspect in common. They appear to be in their period of hypergrowth with great momentum. As a final step, we analyze each of the 20 stocks and use our judgment to come up with a final list of just 10 stocks. The majority of our selections (if not all) have a market cap of $10 billion or more. Who should follow this series? The stocks highlighted in this series are for investors who are in their accumulation phase and are more interested in growing their capital at a rapid pace rather than in their current income. The focus of the selections is dividend growth and growth sustainability rather than high current yield. In that sense, the risk profile of these stocks is generally higher, and they are not suitable for conservative investors or investors who need high current incomes to sustain their lifestyle. Market Outlook Currently, the market is overwhelmingly driven by the...
Wirestock/iStock via Getty Images War is winding down. Oil prices are sliding. Private credit fears are fading. Recession odds are plummeting. Stocks are broadly moving higher. It's morning again in America. Or, at least, it's morning again in the stock market. In my view, there's a solid case to be made to keep buying stocks (at least selectively) as they reach new all-time highs. Here's the agen...
Wirestock/iStock via Getty Images War is winding down. Oil prices are sliding. Private credit fears are fading. Recession odds are plummeting. Stocks are broadly moving higher. It's morning again in America. Or, at least, it's morning again in the stock market. In my view, there's a solid case to be made to keep buying stocks (at least selectively) as they reach new all-time highs. Here's the agenda for this week: The macroeconomic setup summarized in one single chart (and how big bank CEOs have allayed private credit fears). My four-point case to buy technology stocks right now, and how I, as a dividend growth investor, am gaining exposure here. A brief case that the current spike in US inflation is... wait for it... transitory. Some comments on my buy list, which includes four ETFs and one regional bank stock. Onward! Maybe The Most Important Chart Right Now I could give lots of charts to illustrate the current macroeconomic situation, but I think just one chart will suffice. In fact, this is probably the most important chart to see right now. It is betting on market odds of a recession this year, which have recently plunged: Kalshi The two biggest causes for concern about a potential recession have been: Rising oil prices Fears about a private credit meltdown Both have been significantly allayed recently. As of this writing, the spot price of WTI crude oil has slid to about $93.50, down from its high of $115. Negotiations between the US and Iran appear to be progressing, and the Strait of Hormuz is inching back toward reopening. And on the private credit front, big bank earnings calls have done quite a lot to send out an "all clear" signal. Here's CEO David Solomon from the Goldman Sachs ( GS ) Q1 2026 earnings conference call (emphasis mine): I think you guys know this that there -- private credit and the broadest definition you could possibly come up with is about $3.5 trillion of assets. But the thing that's been getting a lot of focus is direct lending and di...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Written by Jussi Askola for High Yield Investor Everyone is different. I am still quite young, and I am in the accumulation phase of my life. At the same time, my active income is quite risky, as I run a small business, which may get disrupted by AI over time. This means that I need to gradually replace my active income with passive income, just in case. Moreover, sinc...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Written by Jussi Askola for High Yield Investor Everyone is different. I am still quite young, and I am in the accumulation phase of my life. At the same time, my active income is quite risky, as I run a small business, which may get disrupted by AI over time. This means that I need to gradually replace my active income with passive income, just in case. Moreover, since my investment horizon is very long, I need to worry about inflation and major potential black swans on the horizon. All these factors greatly influence how I invest my capital. With that in mind, how would I invest $1,000,000 today? Regular growth stocks like those that are part of the S&P 500 ( SPY ) are too risky for me and do not generate enough income. I fear that most businesses, and especially a lot of tech stocks like SaaS companies, will face significant long-term value destruction from AI breaking barriers to entry, inviting new competition, and hurting profitability. I pointed to this risk long before the market recognized it, and I think that this recent sell-off is still just the beginning, with far more businesses facing similar value destruction ahead. This, on its own, makes most stocks uninvestable for me. Beyond that, since I need to work on replacing my active income with passive income, most stocks are not suitable for my situation as their yields are too low. What about bonds, then? They can offer higher yields, but the problem here is that they don't provide good long-term inflation protection, and especially not in the event that we face a few more black swan events that require more money printing. This could be another pandemic, a major war, or even a deep recession caused by a difficult AI transition. The reality is that even if you earn a 5-6% yield, there is not much left after taxes and inflation. At best, you are earning a very small real return and not really getting ahead. At worst, you could lose significant purchasing power if we face anot...
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Article Thesis Tech stocks, overall, have done well in the recent past, but not all of them are created equal: segments such as chips have done very well on the back of a massive AI infrastructure spending spree, while software stocks have been weak due to fears about competition from AI agents, etc. While I believe that this worry is justified in so...
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Article Thesis Tech stocks, overall, have done well in the recent past, but not all of them are created equal: segments such as chips have done very well on the back of a massive AI infrastructure spending spree, while software stocks have been weak due to fears about competition from AI agents, etc. While I believe that this worry is justified in some cases and to some degree, this huge divergence among tech stocks still seems overdone in some cases—and provides opportunities in some stocks. Past Coverage I have provided coverage on a wide range of tech stocks, with this Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( TSM ) earnings review being a very recent example. If you're interested in specific stocks, you can find my coverage on many tech stocks via my author profile. Tech Stock Divergence: AI Makes The Difference When we look at the Nasdaq's ( QQQ ) performance over the last year, we see that the tech-heavy index is up by a hefty 50% over that time frame. But when we look at how individual segments of the overall tech industry performed, we see big differences: Data by YCharts Semiconductor ETFs such as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) or the iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) have soared by 130%+ over the last year, while software stocks have shown a pretty weak performance—the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ), which includes many software stocks, is trading below where it traded one year ago, despite the major bull run in the broader tech ETFs such as QQQ. These trends have been especially strong in 2026 so far, with SMH, SOXX, and other chip ETFs soaring while software has slumped. This is, of course, is driven by the underlying performance of the individual stocks that make up these ETFs, so let's look at a couple of them: Data by YCharts Individual chip names, such as Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) or Broadcom ( AVGO ), which both design AI chips among other items, have done quite well, ...
MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images Company Background The Brisbane, CA-based CareDx ( CDNA ) describes itself as a ‘precision medicine solutions company’, which specializes in ‘the discovery, development, and commercialization of clinically differentiated, high-value healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers.’ It offers various tests to assess organ health in pre- an...
MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images Company Background The Brisbane, CA-based CareDx ( CDNA ) describes itself as a ‘precision medicine solutions company’, which specializes in ‘the discovery, development, and commercialization of clinically differentiated, high-value healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers.’ It offers various tests to assess organ health in pre- and post-transplant patients, including AlloSure Kidney , AlloSure Heart , and AlloSure Lung , which are cell-free DNA solutions for kidney, heart, and lung transplant patients, respectively. As part of their HeartCare program, they also offer AlloMap Heart, their test to assess potential graft rejection in donor patients. CareDx The company recently launched AlloSure Heart for pediatrics and HistoMap Kidney, their ‘first tissue-based gene expression classifier for identifying rejection subtype’ in kidney transplant patients. The latter provides clinicians more information to help understand organ rejection. In my last coverage I noted that CareDx also offers HLA (human leukocyte antigen) testing that helps with organ matching and an asset called AlloCell that tracks cell development for stem cell donors. However, in recent news, the company recently announced its intention to sell their entire lab products portfolio to EuroBio Scientific for $170 million. This includes their HLA tests, including: ‘PCR kits for rapid deceased donor HLA (human leukocyte antigen) typing, IVD NGS-based (next-generation sequencing) kits for transplant recipient HLA typing globally, and IVD NGS-based monitoring assays for solid organ and stem cell transplant recipients outside of North America.’ As for AlloCell, their most recent announcement was from December 2024 , involving a research collaboration with TC BioPharm. While they do not necessarily appear to have abandoned this asset, they have also not reported any revenue derived from it as far as I can tell, and management neglected to mention ...