Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Since Tencent ( TCEHY ) was last covered (Hold rating), the stock had largely held steady until the start of this year when it began to decline. With the stock down around 21% year to date, it is worth a revisit. Financial context While their share price headed south, Tencent reported fairly robust financials; FY 2025 revenues rose 14% YoY to CNY 751 bi...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Since Tencent ( TCEHY ) was last covered (Hold rating), the stock had largely held steady until the start of this year when it began to decline. With the stock down around 21% year to date, it is worth a revisit. Financial context While their share price headed south, Tencent reported fairly robust financials; FY 2025 revenues rose 14% YoY to CNY 751 billion, driven by solid growth in their VAS segment, their largest revenue generator, accounting for nearly 50% of revenues (which covers their domestic and international gaming businesses and social networks), which grew 16% YoY to CNY 370 billion. Within this segment, games remained the growth driver; domestic games, the largest, saw revenues rise 18% YoY to CNY 164 billion, driven by recently released game titles Delta Force, Valorant, and Wuthering Waves, as well as good performance from evergreen titles like Honor of Kings. Tencent’s continued strength and dominance in domestic games, a fairly mature market in China, suggests growth may be driven by market share gains. For perspective, rival NetEase ( NTES ) has been lagging Tencent recently, with their games business growing 10% and 2.5% in FY 2025 and FY 2024, respectively, compared with 18% and 10% for Tencent, respectively. International games accelerated in 2025, rising 33% YoY to CNY 77.4 billion, helped by Supercell’s games, PUBG Mobile, and Wuthering Waves. This is a stellar performance and may also be indicative of market share gains. For perspective, Microsoft ( MSFT ) reported a 16% YoY growth in their Xbox content and services revenue for FY 2025, which was partially driven by their mammoth acquisition of Activision Blizzard, in contrast to Tencent, whose growth was largely organic. Social Networks revenues inched up 5% YoY to CNY 28 billion, helped by music subscription revenues from their music division, Tencent Music (up 16% in FY 2025), which helped offset weakness in their long form video segment, which...
romrodinka/iStock via Getty Images Freeport-McMoRan Inc. ( FCX ) gapped up about 7% on April 8, jumping from yesterday's close of $60.76 to roughly $65 at the open. The catalyst was a copper price rally driven by easing energy costs and renewed optimism around Chinese manufacturing data . Goldman Sachs conveniently initiated coverage with a Buy rating last week. The stock surged. The crowd piled i...
romrodinka/iStock via Getty Images Freeport-McMoRan Inc. ( FCX ) gapped up about 7% on April 8, jumping from yesterday's close of $60.76 to roughly $65 at the open. The catalyst was a copper price rally driven by easing energy costs and renewed optimism around Chinese manufacturing data . Goldman Sachs conveniently initiated coverage with a Buy rating last week. The stock surged. The crowd piled in. And now, if my two decades of gap trading have taught me anything, it's time to fade this move. The Gap Let me be precise about what I'm seeing. FCX closed on April 7th at $60.76. On Apr8 it opened near $65, creating a gap of roughly $4. Looking at the candlesticks, we see a 10% difference from Apr7's low to Apr8's high. The bottom of this gap, or the price level where the gap fills, sits at $61.12. This is an area gap. The telltale signs are all there: it occurred on news that is positive but not structurally transformative. (This is a copper price rally, not a new mine discovery or an acquisition.) The gap was met with heavy volume at the open, suggesting retail enthusiasm rather than institutional accumulation. And the stock is trading near the upper end of its recent range rather than breaking out of a consolidation pattern. Area gaps fill. My backtests show this consistently across thousands of instances, and commodity stocks like FCX are among the most reliable candidates for gap fills. The reason is straightforward: copper miners are leveraged bets on a commodity that mean-reverts over short time horizons. When copper spikes, FCX overshoots. When the spike fades - and copper spikes always fade - FCX gives back the excess. The gap fills because the exuberance that created it was temporary. My backtest on FCX up area gaps of 5%+ when near 52-week highs shows a fill rate above 85% within two weeks, with the median fill time around five trading days. The kurtosis here is what makes the trade attractive: the expected gain on the put side (gap fill to $61.12) is roughly...
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is currently in the United States and is meeting members of US President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace deal for Ukraine and US-Russia economic cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit said on Thursday. The visit comes before the US decision on whether to extend sanctions relief on Russian oil, ...
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is currently in the United States and is meeting members of US President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace deal for Ukraine and US-Russia economic cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit said on Thursday. The visit comes before the US decision on whether to extend sanctions relief on Russian oil, which expires on April 11 and could also be on the agenda. The United States issued a 30-day waiver...
ZE14361/iStock via Getty Images I last wrote about Blue Owl Capital Inc. ( OWL ) in January and highlighted it as my ultimate contrarian bet. Since then, the stock price action has made me look like a fool, as it has plunged over 40% since then. While the broader stock market ( SPY ) has been down as well, and the broader alternative asset management space has gotten hammered, OWL has still been a...
ZE14361/iStock via Getty Images I last wrote about Blue Owl Capital Inc. ( OWL ) in January and highlighted it as my ultimate contrarian bet. Since then, the stock price action has made me look like a fool, as it has plunged over 40% since then. While the broader stock market ( SPY ) has been down as well, and the broader alternative asset management space has gotten hammered, OWL has still been a loser even on a relative basis. Today, I’m going to revisit my original thesis in light of what has transpired since then and update my investment thesis. One thing that has remained the same, and in fact has accelerated since my previous article, has been the negative media coverage of OWL and the broader direct lending space. It seems like every day there is a new negative article from a mainstream source or financial news outlet about how software loans are risky or how transactions in the space are supposedly opaque, dangerous, and/or non-transparent. While this hurts the stock price in and of itself, the more dangerous long-term impact is that this constant barrage of negative media coverage makes investors in private credit funds themselves jittery. That has carried over into plunging stock prices and yawning price-to-NAV gaps in the publicly traded business development company ("BDC") sector ( BIZD ), with even stalwart names like Ares Capital Corporation ( ARCC ) now trading at around a 10% discount to net asset value, and traditionally all-star internally-managed names like Hercules Capital ( HTGC ) have plunged sharply year to date despite posting very strong underlying fundamental numbers. Additionally, redemption requests are surging in private credit funds, with the Financial Times recently reporting that over $20 billion worth of redemption requests had been made among leading private credit firms like Blackstone ( BX ), Ares Management ( ARES ), and OWL, along with a few others. OWL got hit particularly hard, with its technology fund and diversified fund, in...
An unreleased new AI model is the talk of Silicon Valley. Plus: New developments in the fight to prevent Chinese developers from copying US AI models. But first… Three things to know: • Meta debuts first AI model from new Superintelligence group • Anthropic completes tender offer , but employees hold onto shares • OpenAI advocates electric grid, safety net spending for new AI era A ‘terrifying’ mo...
An unreleased new AI model is the talk of Silicon Valley. Plus: New developments in the fight to prevent Chinese developers from copying US AI models. But first… Three things to know: • Meta debuts first AI model from new Superintelligence group • Anthropic completes tender offer , but employees hold onto shares • OpenAI advocates electric grid, safety net spending for new AI era A ‘terrifying’ model Over the past three years, the top AI developers have raced to one-up each other by introducing better artificial intelligence models, with new releases becoming increasingly frequent. Now, we may be entering an era when AI progress is defined in part by what gets held back. On Tuesday, Anthropic unveiled Mythos, a more powerful general-purpose model that it says significantly outperforms prior offerings on a range of benchmarks, including for coding and reasoning. Yet, the company has decided to limit the release to a small group of trusted partner companies because of concerns about its advanced cybersecurity capabilities. During Anthropic’s testing, its in-house security team found that Mythos was capable of identifying and then exploiting vulnerabilities “in every major operating system and every major web browser when directed by a user to do so,” according to a blog post. The hope, according to Anthropic, is a narrow release will allow companies to use Mythos to find their own cybersecurity vulnerabilities before hackers do. Meanwhile, OpenAI is also finalizing a product with greater cybersecurity capabilities that it intends to release to select partners, Axios reported on Thursday. The ChatGPT maker had previously introduced a pilot program meant to put its tools “in the hands of defenders first.” Many AI industry insiders applauded Anthropic — a company that has long positioned itself as a safety-focused organization — for taking what appears to be a responsible approach to rolling out the technology. Some were also spooked by a model that one Anthropic employe...
A retail exodus from business-development companies has dragged their debt to levels that are starting to look attractive, according to MFS Investment Management. “Pressure for redemptions that they’re facing likely ends up creating some opportunities within the public credit markets,” Alex Mackey, the firm’s co-chief investment officer for fixed income, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Blo...
A retail exodus from business-development companies has dragged their debt to levels that are starting to look attractive, according to MFS Investment Management. “Pressure for redemptions that they’re facing likely ends up creating some opportunities within the public credit markets,” Alex Mackey, the firm’s co-chief investment officer for fixed income, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “You can line up all the p
Silicon Valley’s AI buildout is quietly becoming a major driver of natural gas expansion, as Google, Microsoft, and Meta sign fossil fuel deals that undercut their own climate pledges.
Silicon Valley’s AI buildout is quietly becoming a major driver of natural gas expansion, as Google, Microsoft, and Meta sign fossil fuel deals that undercut their own climate pledges.
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26 ) on Thursday closed down -34 (-1.06%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26 ) closed down -25 (-1.05%). Cocoa prices settled lower on Thursday as they consolidated this week's losses. On Tuesday, NY cocoa fell to a 1-month low, and London cocoa dropped to...
May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26 ) on Thursday closed down -34 (-1.06%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26 ) closed down -25 (-1.05%). Cocoa prices settled lower on Thursday as they consolidated this week's losses. On Tuesday, NY cocoa fell to a 1-month low, and London cocoa dropped to...
May arabica coffee (KCK26 ) on Thursday closed down -0.35 (-0.12%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26 ) closed down -18 (-0.54%). Coffee prices settled lower on Thursday as they consolidated recent losses. Strength in the Brazilian real limited losses in coffee prices as the real (^USDBRL ) rallied to...
May arabica coffee (KCK26 ) on Thursday closed down -0.35 (-0.12%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26 ) closed down -18 (-0.54%). Coffee prices settled lower on Thursday as they consolidated recent losses. Strength in the Brazilian real limited losses in coffee prices as the real (^USDBRL ) rallied to...
May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26 ) on Thursday closed down -0.31 (-2.18%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26 ) closed down -8.70 (-2.06%). Sugar prices continued their week-long slide on Thursday, with NY sugar dropping to a 1-month low and London sugar falling to a 3-week low....
May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26 ) on Thursday closed down -0.31 (-2.18%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26 ) closed down -8.70 (-2.06%). Sugar prices continued their week-long slide on Thursday, with NY sugar dropping to a 1-month low and London sugar falling to a 3-week low....
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) both reported earnings recently, revealing a sharp divergence. Broadcom is riding a hyperscaler AI wave that keeps accelerating whereas Qualcomm is managing a slower pivot away from handset dependence while a memory supply crunch clouds the near term. AI Servers Carry Broadcom. Snapdragon Faces a Speed Bump. Broadcom posted $19.31 ... Broadcom vs. ...
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) both reported earnings recently, revealing a sharp divergence. Broadcom is riding a hyperscaler AI wave that keeps accelerating whereas Qualcomm is managing a slower pivot away from handset dependence while a memory supply crunch clouds the near term. AI Servers Carry Broadcom. Snapdragon Faces a Speed Bump. Broadcom posted $19.31 ... Broadcom vs. Qualcomm: Buy One, Avoid the Other
Moussa81/iStock via Getty Images NovaGold ( NG ) up 1.2% in Thursday's trading as Morgan Stanley started coverage with an Overweight rating and $13.80 price target, pointing to accelerated development of the Donlin gold deposit in Alaska, one of the world's largest undeveloped gold assets and possibly among the largest gold mines ever in North America. The planned Donlin mine and processing plant ...
Moussa81/iStock via Getty Images NovaGold ( NG ) up 1.2% in Thursday's trading as Morgan Stanley started coverage with an Overweight rating and $13.80 price target, pointing to accelerated development of the Donlin gold deposit in Alaska, one of the world's largest undeveloped gold assets and possibly among the largest gold mines ever in North America. The planned Donlin mine and processing plant are expected to produce 1.1M oz/year of gold over a 27-year mine life, the project has significant potential for resource expansion and conversion of resources into reserves, and it has key federal and state permits, with some state approvals and a final construction decision pending. Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos de Alba calculates the asset has ~33M oz of proven and probable reserves at an industry-leading ~2.02 g/t gold and ~40M oz of measured and indicated resources including reserves at ~2.2 g/t gold, and life-of-mine operating costs are estimated at $830/oz real, which at spot gold price implies an operating margin of $3,830/oz ; de Alba foresees first production in 2032. Modeling for a $2,500/oz long-term gold price—well below current spot pricing at ~$4,660/oz—the analyst estimates Donlin's distributable cash value at ~$9.2B at a 7% discount rate, adding that every $1,000/oz move in the gold price shifts DCF by ~$9.5B. More on NovaGold Resources NovaGold Resources Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript NovaGold Resources Q1 2026 Earnings Call Presentation NovaGold Moves Towards Bankable Feasibility Study For Donlin Amidst Soaring Gold
Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Andoro Research as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access. Click here to find out more » Vlad Antonov/iStock via Getty Images Quick Facts and Why It is Attractive When I started writing ...
Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Andoro Research as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access. Click here to find out more » Vlad Antonov/iStock via Getty Images Quick Facts and Why It is Attractive When I started writing this article, I planned to rate CubeSmart ( CUBE )a (cautious) Buy based on price levels and dividend yield. By the time I finished calculating the fair value and evaluating the risks, I ended up with a "Hold" recommendation. CubeSmart probably needs little introduction to those who follow the self-storage REIT space — it is the third-largest operator behind PSA and EXR, with a tilt towards the Sunbelt market with positive demographic trends. Let’s remind ourselves of the business fundamentals at a high level. CubeSmart is an established player with 21 years since the IPO. It has an investment-grade BBB rating, and it is internally managed, implying management should be more closely aligned with shareholder interests. Its 15-year dividend growth track record is reassuring: it last cut its dividend in 2008 and 2009, and continued to grow it ever since, even through the COVID pandemic, signaling its resilience. CubeSmart is a US-only business, thus reasonably insulated from global geopolitical shocks (and wars) at an operational level, at least more than most companies that are heavily dependent on global supply chains. What about its current core metrics that income-focused investors might care about? Debt levels are very manageable: 4.8x Debt to EBITDA with well-staggered debt maturities, and its dividend AFFO payout ratio is 87% — edging high, but in no immediate danger. Remember, we should use FFO, a standardized metric, and P/FFO to compare peer valuations, but FFO excludes CapEx and thus does not paint the full picture of real cash flow. For the dividend payout ratio, w...