PDD Holdings press release ( PDD ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.38 misses by $1.03 . Revenue of $15.4B (+16.8% Y/Y) misses by $710M . Total revenues in the quarter were RMB106.2 billion (US$115.4 billion), an increase of 11% from RMB95.7 billion in the same quarter of 2025. More on PDD Holdings PDD Holdings: A Cash-Rich Compounder Trading Like A Broken Business PDD Holdings Is A Bet On The Future Of E-C...
PDD Holdings press release ( PDD ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.38 misses by $1.03 . Revenue of $15.4B (+16.8% Y/Y) misses by $710M . Total revenues in the quarter were RMB106.2 billion (US$115.4 billion), an increase of 11% from RMB95.7 billion in the same quarter of 2025. More on PDD Holdings PDD Holdings: A Cash-Rich Compounder Trading Like A Broken Business PDD Holdings Is A Bet On The Future Of E-Commerce, Again PDD Holdings: Strong Growth, Cheap, 14% Earnings Yield PDD Holdings Q1 2026 Earnings Preview Earnings week ahead: ZS, CRM, SNOW, DELL, ZS, XPEV, LI, and more
Good morning . Donald Trump tightens his grip on the GOP. The AI boom powers markets to new highs. And for Gen Z, the hottest Friday-night destination may now be the gym. Listen to the day’s top stories . — Hellmuth Tromm Market Snapshot S&P 500 Futures 7,561.75 +0.3% Nasdaq 100 Futures 30,229.50 +0.5% Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 1,201.27 +0.0% Market data as of 06:32 AM ET. Data is subject to pro...
Good morning . Donald Trump tightens his grip on the GOP. The AI boom powers markets to new highs. And for Gen Z, the hottest Friday-night destination may now be the gym. Listen to the day’s top stories . — Hellmuth Tromm Market Snapshot S&P 500 Futures 7,561.75 +0.3% Nasdaq 100 Futures 30,229.50 +0.5% Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index 1,201.27 +0.0% Market data as of 06:32 AM ET. Data is subject to provider delays. Trump’s party. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, backed by the president, won the state’s Republican Senate runoff , defeating four-term incumbent John Cornyn and underscoring Trump’s grip on the GOP. The result, however, could set up a tougher election challenge in November against well-funded Democrat James Talarico . On Wall Street, AI euphoria continues to power markets higher . Global stocks climbed to fresh records for a sixth straight session and US futures advanced as investors piled into tech shares, doubling down on the artificial-intelligence boom. Chipmakers SK Hynix and Micron each topped $1 trillion in value for the first time, while Goldman strategists joined peers at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank in seeing a 17% return for the S&P 500 Index this year. Speaking of semiconductors, Taiwanese prosecutors suspect advanced Nvidia AI chips were smuggled to China through Japan, highlighting the challenge of enforcing US export controls. Three people were detained last week for allegedly falsifying documents tied to Super Micro servers, with at least one shipment making it through customs before being intercepted. Other cases have focused on diversion via Southeast Asia , including the biggest such indictment in the US. Switzerland’s 10-Million Population Cap Is Worrying Executives Read more Now for the grocery bill. Americans already squeezed by high gas prices are bracing for another inflation hit as food costs climb because of unfavorable weather, tariffs and tighter cattle supplies . Economists say the Iran war and a possible El Niño pattern may...
David Taljat/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I usually don't update my theses on companies less than 3 months after the last article. Sometimes I can even go a year or longer, if the specific thesis doesn't actually warrant me updating it or shifting it to any extent. But sometimes, even 2 months can actually change the entire outlook on a stock. Now, while 2 months haven't changed my outlook fo...
David Taljat/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I usually don't update my theses on companies less than 3 months after the last article. Sometimes I can even go a year or longer, if the specific thesis doesn't actually warrant me updating it or shifting it to any extent. But sometimes, even 2 months can actually change the entire outlook on a stock. Now, while 2 months haven't changed my outlook for Glencore PLC ( GLCNF ) ( GLNCY ), a company I reviewed back in March of this year (less than 3 months ago from the time of writing), there are some fundamental changes that I believe do warrant a bit of an update - because I'm going to increase my PT a bit. Now, to be clear, Glencore has not significantly outperformed the market. If you look at the RoR below, it's clear that the company has actually underperformed the SPY - if only marginally. So while my "HOLD" rating was wrong on the basis of upside, it wasn't wrong on the basis of market-beating upside - and that is what I tend to look for when I invest. Seeking Alpha Glencore Upside RoR There were a couple of uncertainties that I mentioned in my previous piece that have, as of this article, actually been clarified a bit and come with resolutions. Combining that with earnings and slightly changed estimates means we're in a better position to give a fair value. Furthermore, it's a good thing to look at the impacts of things like the ongoing Middle East conflict, because something like that will obviously change fundamentals in how these companies cost and operate. It doesn't take a math professor to know that in such an environment, input costs are going to rise. And this goes beyond just the input for fuel and the like, which, nevertheless, is significant. There's also the inverse correlation that Glencore uniquely enjoys. What I mean by this is that the company's trading arm can, in times of extreme volatility, actually do a lot better than investors expect. The mix of these factors is what I will be looking at as of ...
June S&P 500 E-Mini futures ( ESM26 ) are up +0.36%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures ( NQM26 ) are up +0.56% this morning as optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal boosted sentiment. The price of WTI crude fell over -4% on Wednesday amid optimism that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has indica...
June S&P 500 E-Mini futures ( ESM26 ) are up +0.36%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures ( NQM26 ) are up +0.56% this morning as optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal boosted sentiment. The price of WTI crude fell over -4% on Wednesday amid optimism that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has indicated that recent U.S. strikes on Iranian targets would not derail talks. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday it could take a few days to finalize details of a potential agreement. Treasuries extended their rebound as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, with the 10-year yield falling three basis points to 4.47%. Market participants are now awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve officials and earnings reports from several high-profile companies. In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new all-time highs. Chip and AI infrastructure stocks rallied, led by a more than +19% jump in Micron Technology ( MU ) after UBS raised its price target on the stock to a Street-high $1,625. Also, shares of rocket and satellite companies soared as investor enthusiasm for the sector intensified after SpaceX filed for a public offering last week, with Redwire Corp. ( RDW ) surging over +26% and AST SpaceMobile ( ASTS ) climbing more than +13%. In addition, travel stocks advanced, with American Airlines ( AAL ) rising over +7% and United Airlines ( UAL ) gaining more than +5%. On the bearish side, AutoZone ( AZO ) slumped about -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the car-parts retailer posted weaker-than-expected FQ3 revenue. Economic data released on Tuesday showed that both consumer confidence and home price growth continued to soften. The U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 93.1 in May, a smaller decline than expectations of 91.9. Separately, the U....
In this article CRM IGV SMH Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT watch now VIDEO 1:01 01:01 Options sentiment in software stocks turns bullish Options Action Options traders are convinced the "SaaS-pocalypse" is over. Whether that's true will likely depend on the market's reaction to Salesforce earnings after the bell Wednesday. Volume ratios in options trading on the iShares Expanded T...
In this article CRM IGV SMH Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT watch now VIDEO 1:01 01:01 Options sentiment in software stocks turns bullish Options Action Options traders are convinced the "SaaS-pocalypse" is over. Whether that's true will likely depend on the market's reaction to Salesforce earnings after the bell Wednesday. Volume ratios in options trading on the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) have been increasingly bullish throughout this month, including on Tuesday — when more than twice as many calls traded as puts, with a heavy bias toward call-buying. By comparison, five times more puts traded in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) than calls. Cloud giant Salesforce, down more than 50% from its all-time highs more than 18 months ago, will likely have an outsized impact on the group, which is now up more than 25% since its low in April — a technical definition for a new bull market. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Salesforce, 1 year More options contracts traded in Salesforce alone than in the IGV on Tuesday, and total premium exchanged was almost three times more, with 61% of premium in Salesforce traded around call contracts, according to SpotGamma data. More than 10,600 calls were bought, compared to just over 4,100 puts. Options traders are expecting an abnormally big move for the stock. Implied volatility is pricing in a 7.8% swing, more than twice the realized move after the past four earnings reports, according to Cboe LiveVol data. Many of the biggest trades by dollar amount were done in the June 18 expiry, but at least one trader in Salesforce has short-term high hopes: They spent $650,000 buying 2,000 of the 195-strike calls expiring Friday, looking for an almost exactly 10% move into the weekend. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.
Pla2na/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis Today, I'm excited to initiate coverage on the Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF ( VYMI ), one of the most popular ETFs in its category, with over $19 billion in assets and an ultra-low 0.07% expense ratio as of February 1, 2026 . It's a big milestone for me. After writing over 1,000 articles on U.S. Equity ETFs over the last six years ...
Pla2na/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis Today, I'm excited to initiate coverage on the Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF ( VYMI ), one of the most popular ETFs in its category, with over $19 billion in assets and an ultra-low 0.07% expense ratio as of February 1, 2026 . It's a big milestone for me. After writing over 1,000 articles on U.S. Equity ETFs over the last six years on Seeking Alpha, I've dramatically expanded my coverage universe to include International ETFs, and with that comes the same type of detailed, under-the-hood fundamental analysis I know my readers appreciate. In the article below, you can expect to find region, sector, factor, and performance comparisons with peers like the iShares International Select Dividend ETF ( IDV ), the Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF ( SCHY ), and the Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF ( VIGI ). This article also includes a discussion about whether it's worth holding several of these funds at once, and importantly, my take on if VYMI's dividend yield, which I estimate to be 3.95% at current prices, is safe and can increase moving forward. I hope you enjoy the read, and as always, I look forward to your comments afterward. VYMI Overview First, the basics. According to VYMI's website , the fund is in the Foreign Large Value category, launched on February 25, 2016, has a 0.07% expense ratio, and tracks the FTSE All-World ex US High Dividend Yield Index. Vanguard lists its Risk-to-Reward rating at a 5/5, indicating it's "aggressive," associated with "unusually high volatility," and "may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon." I'll add that analyst coverage is lower for foreign stocks, and accounting standards by country can vary widely. Still, I should point out that the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF ( VYM ) has a 4/5 rating, so these ratings obviously include all fund types, not just equity funds. Based on actual risk and return stat...
Costco Wholesale ( COST ) is set to report FQ3 results after the close on Thursday, with Wall Street looking for another solid quarter from the warehouse retailer. Analysts expect the retailer to report revenue of $69.7B, comparable sales growth of around 6.7%, and EPS of $4.97, up from last year's mark of $4.28. Key topics on the conference call will include the comparable sales and traffic trend...
Costco Wholesale ( COST ) is set to report FQ3 results after the close on Thursday, with Wall Street looking for another solid quarter from the warehouse retailer. Analysts expect the retailer to report revenue of $69.7B, comparable sales growth of around 6.7%, and EPS of $4.97, up from last year's mark of $4.28. Key topics on the conference call will include the comparable sales and traffic trends for the current quarter, including the breakdown on any shifts in basket size and mix between discretionary and staple categories as inflation and fuel costs factor in. Investors will also be listening for updates on membership renewal rates and any hints on future membership fee timing. The plan for international store openings will also be a talking point. UBS analyst Michael Lasser expects Costco ( COST ) to deliver a robust set of results amidst an increasingly challenging macro environment. "Importantly, we think COST will be able to ease concerns on all fronts through its 3Q print. Plus, this quarter should provide COST an opportunity to once again demonstrate its ability to drive performance regardless of the macro backdrop," he noted. Lasser and his team believe Costco ( COST ) is very well-positioned to navigate higher fuel prices due to its customer demographics, potential traffic benefit from incremental fueling visits, and the rigorous focus on value. A wildcard with the report will be any commentary on the timeline for a special dividend payout, since the last special dividend payout was January 2024 and the company has historically distributed special dividends every two to three years. On Wall Street, 22 firms have a Buy-equivalent rating on Costco ( COST ) vs. 12 Hold-equivalent ratings and 2 Sell-Equivalent ratings. The Seeking Alpha Quant rating on the club warehouse chain is flashing Hold. Shares of Costco ( COST ) have cooled off over the last week after hitting an all-time high of $1,096.50 on May 19. More on Costco Costco Q3 Earnings Preview: Great B...
In the wake of attacks on CEOs, a nationwide protest movement targeting data centers, and increasing concerns about AI job replacement, federal intelligence agencies and domestic law enforcement are circulating reports with a new domestic target in mind: anti-technology extremists. More than 1,000 pages of unpublished reports from the Department of Homeland Security, FBI, and fusion centers obtain...
In the wake of attacks on CEOs, a nationwide protest movement targeting data centers, and increasing concerns about AI job replacement, federal intelligence agencies and domestic law enforcement are circulating reports with a new domestic target in mind: anti-technology extremists. More than 1,000 pages of unpublished reports from the Department of Homeland Security, FBI, and fusion centers obtained by WIRED show a national shift taking place to surveil this new and worryingly broad category of people and activities deemed an emerging threat. This new effort follows President Donald Trump's National Security Presidential Memo 7 , which instructs the Department of Justice to target anyone holding “anti-American,” “anti-Christian,” and "anti-capitalism” beliefs. Earlier this month, Trump's counterterrorism czar, Sebastian Gorka, released a public counterterrorism strategy claiming that left-wing extremists are one of the three top counterterrorism priorities facing the United States. Read full article Comments
Many people assume financial success only means becoming extremely wealthy, hitting a point where you can pretty much buy anything you desire. But many of us fail to consider the merits of financial stability. Having enough is much more subtle than a flashy lifestyle and $80k cars parked in the driveway. In reality, many Americans ... Signs You’re Financially Better Off Than You Think
Many people assume financial success only means becoming extremely wealthy, hitting a point where you can pretty much buy anything you desire. But many of us fail to consider the merits of financial stability. Having enough is much more subtle than a flashy lifestyle and $80k cars parked in the driveway. In reality, many Americans ... Signs You’re Financially Better Off Than You Think
Welcome to Bloomberg’s AI Today newsletter. Every weekday we’ll break down artificial intelligence’s threats and opportunities for businesses, workers, finance and economies. Sign up now if you’re not already on the list. Up first AI fluency is no longer optional at a growing list of companies. Add OKX to that list. The crypto exchange is now evaluating employees based on how well they use artific...
Welcome to Bloomberg’s AI Today newsletter. Every weekday we’ll break down artificial intelligence’s threats and opportunities for businesses, workers, finance and economies. Sign up now if you’re not already on the list. Up first AI fluency is no longer optional at a growing list of companies. Add OKX to that list. The crypto exchange is now evaluating employees based on how well they use artificial intelligence tools , people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. From Shopify and Google to Wall Street giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, employers are treating AI the way they once treated spreadsheets or email — a baseline expectation rather than a specialized skill. KPMG started tying performance to AI usage last year, while health insurance company UnitedHealth is actively tracking how some workers use it. Others are likely to follow suit. The message, from OKX and rivals like Crypto.com, is that those who learn to use AI effectively will gain an edge, while those who resist risk falling behind. And falling behind might mean losing your job. This week Commonwealth Bank of Australia CEO Matt Comyn said AI will eliminate some headcount as the bank rolls out new AI-powered services and fraud protections. But Comyn also argued that the technology could accelerate careers for employees who adapt quickly, allowing junior workers to take on more sophisticated tasks earlier than before. As workers scramble to adapt, the broader labor market is already showing signs of strain. A senior Bank of Canada official warned that the country is entering a “low hire, low fire” era : Employers are hesitant to expand but reluctant to cut deeply, creating a kind of economic stagnation beneath otherwise stable headline unemployment numbers. Young workers and the long-term unemployed are feeling the pressure most acutely. Taken together, it’s a picture of an economy entering a volatile transition phase. The following was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. Banking & ...
DUBLIN and SHANGHAI, May 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDD Holdings Inc. (“PDD Holdings” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: PDD), today announced its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. First Quarter 2026 Highlights Total revenues in the quarter were RMB106.2 billion (US$ 1 15.4 billion), an increase of 11% from RMB95.7 billion in the same quarter of 2025. in the quarter...
DUBLIN and SHANGHAI, May 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDD Holdings Inc. (“PDD Holdings” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: PDD), today announced its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. First Quarter 2026 Highlights Total revenues in the quarter were RMB106.2 billion (US$ 1 15.4 billion), an increase of 11% from RMB95.7 billion in the same quarter of 2025. in the quarter were RMB106.2 billion (US$ 15.4 billion), an increase of 11% from RMB95.7 billion in the same quarter of 2025. Operating profit in the quarter was RMB19.6 billion (US$2.8 billion), an increase of 22% from RMB16.1 billion in the same quarter of 2025. Non-GAAP 2 operating profit in the quarter was RMB21.1 billion (US$3.1 billion), an increase of 15% from RMB18.3 billion in the same quarter of 2025. in the quarter was RMB19.6 billion (US$2.8 billion), an increase of 22% from RMB16.1 billion in the same quarter of 2025. in the quarter was RMB21.1 billion (US$3.1 billion), an increase of 15% from RMB18.3 billion in the same quarter of 2025. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders in the quarter was RMB12.5 billion (US$1.8 billion), a decrease of 15% from RMB14.7 billion in the same quarter of 2025. Non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders in the quarter was RMB14.1 billion (US$2.0 billion), a decrease of 17% from RMB16.9 billion in the same quarter of 2025. “This quarter marks the start of deep transformations in our business, our internal processes and our organization,” said Mr. Lei Chen, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer of PDD Holdings. “We are actively stepping up to our responsibilities as a platform enterprise to create greater value for our users, the industries and the society as a whole.” “As we head into the next decade of our journey, supply chain investments will be our core strategic priority,” said Mr. Jiazhen Zhao, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer of PDD Holdings. “We will commit significant resources to building the ...
buradaki/iStock via Getty Images By Mike Larson I just wrote about how big the SpaceX ( SPCX ) Initial Public Offering will be. Now, let’s talk about how big an impact the not-yet-launched IPO is having on select stocks and funds! My MoneyShow Chart of the Day speaks volumes. It shows the five-day percentage change in AST SpaceMobile Inc. ( ASTS ), Rocket Lab Corp. ( RKLB ), and the Procure Space ...
buradaki/iStock via Getty Images By Mike Larson I just wrote about how big the SpaceX ( SPCX ) Initial Public Offering will be. Now, let’s talk about how big an impact the not-yet-launched IPO is having on select stocks and funds! My MoneyShow Chart of the Day speaks volumes. It shows the five-day percentage change in AST SpaceMobile Inc. ( ASTS ), Rocket Lab Corp. ( RKLB ), and the Procure Space ETF ( UFO ). Put simply: They’re all headed to orbit because investors are looking to cash in on the halo impact of the SpaceX offering! ASTS, RKLB, UFO (5-Day % Change) (Source: TradingView) I picked those names because one of the contributors to our MoneyShow 2026 Top Picks Report recommended ASTS , while another content partner just wrote about RKLB . ASTS is now the eighth-best performing pick in the 2026 report, with a gain of about 47% since publication. As for UFO? How can you not include an ETF with a ticker like that in a piece about space-related stocks? It owns 53 space-related positions, including both of the stocks above as well as other names like Planet Labs PBC ( PL ) and ViaSat Inc. ( VSAT ). So, do these gains - and the excitement over the “Space Economy” - have staying power? Well, if SpaceX does raise $80 billion (or more) from investors, it’ll have even more capital to deploy to grow its operations. The federal government is also throwing more money at the US Space Force. Its budget should grow 78% to $71 billion in 2027. Valuations also tend to swell any time media attention in a niche group grows and more fast-money traders dive in . But you should be wary of a potential "sell the news" reaction once the SpaceX offering happens. And as we’ve seen with other groups (think meme stocks), post-hype "splashdowns" can be painful once investor attention shifts to the next "shiny object" in markets. Be sure you know what you’re getting into if you’re chasing these names. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors....
Dispersion is rising across emerging markets, reflecting differences in external balances, policy flexibility and economic proximity to the war in Iran. Pablo Goldberg, EM fixed income portfolio manager at BlackRock, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess institutional positioning and investor sentiment across the asset class, as real yields are...
Dispersion is rising across emerging markets, reflecting differences in external balances, policy flexibility and economic proximity to the war in Iran. Pablo Goldberg, EM fixed income portfolio manager at BlackRock, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess institutional positioning and investor sentiment across the asset class, as real yields are attractive and fundamentals remain resilient. Goldberg and Sassower discuss inflation expectations,
EU Packaging Rules Create Another Bureaucratic Monster Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Regulation follows regulation. On August 12, the so-called EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation ( PPWR ) will enter into force, reorganizing the recycling framework for packaging across Europe. Adopted last year, the regulation becomes binding for all EU member states and companies on August 12 and, as an EU re...
EU Packaging Rules Create Another Bureaucratic Monster Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Regulation follows regulation. On August 12, the so-called EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation ( PPWR ) will enter into force, reorganizing the recycling framework for packaging across Europe. Adopted last year, the regulation becomes binding for all EU member states and companies on August 12 and, as an EU regulation, does not require transposition into national law. The PPWR will replace the current patchwork of national packaging recycling laws with a unified framework for the EU single market. Until then, Germany’s existing Packaging Act (VerpackG) remains in effect. EU’s latest effort, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), requires minimizing packaging volume while maintaining functionality Brussels always tells the same story: regulation is supposed to strengthen the European single market and harmonize economic and environmental objectives. A beautiful narrative — especially for those who stand to profit from it. Similar dynamics have already emerged in other sectors, such as carbon emissions trading. In the end, compliance costs for affected businesses rise, the bureaucratic apparatus expands through new control and sanctioning mechanisms, and the overall economy loses competitiveness. According to the European Commission, the goal of the regulatory push is to ensure that by 2030 only recyclable packaging materials circulate within the EU economy. The regulation aims to reduce packaging waste, increase corporate recycling quotas, and firmly embed the circular economy into a binding legal framework. The PPWR is one of the building blocks of the Green Deal, which seeks to lead the EU economy toward a carbon-neutral future through an increasingly detailed and expansive regulatory architecture covering national recycling efforts as well as sector-specific initiatives. Brussels’ regulatory activism offers repeated insights into the logic of bureaucratic systems...
Key Points The Shiller CAPE ratio has risen to 39.6. The only time it's been higher was in the lead-up to the dot-com bubble bursting, back in March 2000. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Is a recession imminent? The only time anyone seems to agree on the answer to that question is when we're already in a recession (generally defined as two or more consecutive quarters of...
Key Points The Shiller CAPE ratio has risen to 39.6. The only time it's been higher was in the lead-up to the dot-com bubble bursting, back in March 2000. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Is a recession imminent? The only time anyone seems to agree on the answer to that question is when we're already in a recession (generally defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth). Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » But that hasn't stopped people from trying to read various economic indicators to determine if a recession is on the way, and a big one just triggered. Here's what happened, and what investors should do now. Approaching a record high One of the most common tools for assessing a single company's valuation is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. In 1988, economist Robert Shiller devised a method to calculate a cyclically adjusted P/E for the entire S&P 500. Dubbed the "Shiller CAPE ratio" (CAPE stands for "cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings"), it has been retroactively computed back to 1871. And that computation contained a big surprise. Since 1871, the CAPE ratio has only risen above 24 six times. The first five times each occurred just prior to a major market downturn, including just before the Great Depression in 1929 and the Great Recession in 2008. The sixth time is happening right now. Today, the CAPE ratio is well above 24: It's at 39.6. The only time it's ever been higher was on the way to its all-time high of 44.2 in March 2000 -- just before the dot-com bubble burst, causing stocks to plummet. That said, investors shouldn't panic-sell. While the CAPE ratio indicates that stocks in general are richly valued, it doesn't necessarily mean a recession, or even a bear market, is imminent. Remember that even during market downtu...