FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images In our previous coverage of Ares Management Corporation ( ARES ), we highlighted the challenges the sector faced and why investors extrapolating past returns were likely to be disappointed. We gave one solid yield pick for the conservative investor and decided to stay out of the common shares. The stock has not done too badly since then. In fact, it has generated ...
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images In our previous coverage of Ares Management Corporation ( ARES ), we highlighted the challenges the sector faced and why investors extrapolating past returns were likely to be disappointed. We gave one solid yield pick for the conservative investor and decided to stay out of the common shares. The stock has not done too badly since then. In fact, it has generated some decent results, albeit with volatility. Seeking Alpha We go over the recent results and tell you why there is less upside here than what most suspect. Following that, we will tell you why the bonds still look good. Q1-2026 At first glance there was nothing remotely wrong with the results. Gross new capital still came in at a whopping $29.5 billion, with credit groups attracting more than $20 billion. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation Assets under management also hit new highs as inflows continued to outpace outflows. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation Even the most watched category, called "perpetual capital" expanded briskly. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation So what was wrong? Well, a couple of things. The bulk of this capital raise was done early in Q1-2026, when things were quiet in the credit markets. Following the "March Madness," things have decisively taken a turn for the worse. Private equity was the first to show the impacts, with quarter-over-quarter AUM turning negative even in Q1-2026. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation Now granted, that is a really tiny category, and we have taken a lot of time in the past to make fun of investors who get obsessed with the minutiae. But again, the quarter is not fully reflecting how capital has pulled back. So what is actually telling the story? It certainly is not the management commentary, which remains cheerful. In conclusion, for the year 2026, we're on track with our longer-term goals of generating compound annual growth of 16% to 20% in FRE, 20% to 25% in realized income and 20% in dividends. We anticipate continued FRE margin expansion, and we expe...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Odd Lots is coming to Hong Kong! For listeners in Hong Kong, here is one more reminder that we’ll be hosting an Odd Lots Trivia night in Hong Kong on Thursday, June 11. Start getting your team together and compete to test your knowledge of all things markets, finance, and economics. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about... For those not satisfied with a year-to-date gain of 250+%, may I present to you the opportunity for a year-to-date gain of 780+%? I’m talking of course about SK Hynix and the CSOP SK Hynix Daily 2x Leveraged Product, an ETF that aims to give investors two times the exposure to the daily moves of the underlying chipmaker’s stock. And if you think that Korean stocks have been on fire recently, then their leveraged ETF versions have been, I dunno, getting dangerously charred? Think crispy instead of Kospi. This isn’t the first leveraged single-stock ETF we’ve seen, but it feels like it has to be one of the fastest-growing with a market cap now of about $11 billion. I bring it up because Dean Curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors has a nice note/talk out discussing what may be going on with this particular levered ETF. To produce its 2x leveraged return, the ETF needs to source (obviously) leverage. This is usually done in the form of swaps with select dealer counterparties. But when a levered ETF grows this fast, finding that amount of exposure from your usual counterparties gets trickier. No single counterparty wants to end up with huge exposure to a singl...
Facebook Is Accused Of Fostering Ethnic Enclaves At Headquarters Authored by Jose Nino via Headline USA , Tech advocacy group blames visa programs for enabling corporate tribalism. A terminated software engineer is accusing Facebook parent company Meta of allowing Chinese migrants to take over entire departments while American employees face systematic exclusion and layoffs, Neil Munro of Breitbar...
Facebook Is Accused Of Fostering Ethnic Enclaves At Headquarters Authored by Jose Nino via Headline USA , Tech advocacy group blames visa programs for enabling corporate tribalism. A terminated software engineer is accusing Facebook parent company Meta of allowing Chinese migrants to take over entire departments while American employees face systematic exclusion and layoffs, Neil Munro of Breitbart News reported . Jeremy Bernier, who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2012, lost his software engineering job at the company and has gone public with allegations of widespread discrimination. " At Meta, 90% of my coworkers were Chinese, and non-Chinese were routinely excluded, disadvantaged, and targeted for layoffs ," Bernier said. He continued that "6 out of the 7 layoffs I observed targeted non-Chinese despite non-Chinese being the vast minority. Certain org[anizations] like ads and MRS [Meta Recommendation Systems for prioritizing Facebook posts] are notorious for being Chinese dominated." The former employee shared his account through multiple social media posts . "On Wednesdays and Fridays I'd often be the only non-Chinese person on my team in the office, and they'd all get lunch together without inviting me," Bernier recounted. Meta was easily the most toxic company I've worked for. There's a reason the Chinese call it "Squid Game". Others refer to it as "Hunger Games" or "Lord of the Flies". I think they're all accurate. The company culture is basically every man/woman for themselves. The performance... - Jeremy Bernier (@jeremybernier) May 21, 2026 He expressed frustration at the broader pattern he witnessed. "I think Americans would be outraged if they knew that their own citizens were getting marginalized and laid off at their own companies, while Chinese promote themselves up, conquer entire orgs, and reap millions [in pay and bonuses]," Bernier said. "Americans are practically non-existent in the most coveted, high paying tech jobs in the world at American comp...
Doucefleur/iStock via Getty Images By Brian Resnick, CFA Illiquidity premia and manager skill can play key roles. Private markets have become integral to modern portfolios, with many investors searching for higher returns and diversification, including from public markets. But recent fund redemptions have reinforced that illiquidity isn’t theoretical, raising questions about the benefits of giving...
Doucefleur/iStock via Getty Images By Brian Resnick, CFA Illiquidity premia and manager skill can play key roles. Private markets have become integral to modern portfolios, with many investors searching for higher returns and diversification, including from public markets. But recent fund redemptions have reinforced that illiquidity isn’t theoretical, raising questions about the benefits of giving up liquidity. We see several—but investors must understand the trade-offs. Private Credit: A Case Study in Private Markets To better understand the trade-offs among liquidity, market exposure and manager-specific returns, we analyzed private credit. We think it’s ideal for this analysis because its underlying economic exposures can be reasonably compared to public credit markets. Private credit also has multiple market structures that let us observe these exposures. They typically have the same underlying economic engine but different liquidity and pricing frameworks. We used statistical analysis to compare performance patterns, making adjustments because private assets are priced infrequently and often reflect market movements with a delay. The results indicate that private credit moves with broader credit markets but not to the same extent as many public investments. This pattern was consistent across private credit indices as well as non-traded and publicly traded business development companies. The Private Credit Alpha Equation So how much market risk are investors really taking in private markets? And how much of the return is driven by alpha or manager skill? The research suggests that market factors explained less than half ( Display ) of what drives long-term private credit returns. The rest seemed tied to non-market factors, which could include underwriting quality, manager decisions, applying leverage, sourcing and portfolio construction. So, it seems that private credit is neither pure alpha nor simply “hidden beta.” Instead, it appears to represent a hybrid str...
Witness B said in police interview that she pretended to be asleep when allegedly abused as a child A jury in Northern Ireland has heard details of the alleged rape of a child by the former Democratic Unionist party (DUP) leader Jeffrey Donaldson. A police interview with the complainant was played to Newry crown court in Northern Ireland on Tuesday on the sixth day of the former MP’s trial for sex...
Witness B said in police interview that she pretended to be asleep when allegedly abused as a child A jury in Northern Ireland has heard details of the alleged rape of a child by the former Democratic Unionist party (DUP) leader Jeffrey Donaldson. A police interview with the complainant was played to Newry crown court in Northern Ireland on Tuesday on the sixth day of the former MP’s trial for sex offences. Continue reading...
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News Broadcom ( AVGO ) is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the market closes on June 3, with investors looking for further evidence that AI-related demand continues to fuel the semiconductor and infrastructure software giant's growth. Wall Street expects Broadcom to post earnings of $2.40 per share, up 51.9% year over year, on revenue of $22.12B,...
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News Broadcom ( AVGO ) is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the market closes on June 3, with investors looking for further evidence that AI-related demand continues to fuel the semiconductor and infrastructure software giant's growth. Wall Street expects Broadcom to post earnings of $2.40 per share, up 51.9% year over year, on revenue of $22.12B, representing growth of 47.5% from the prior-year period. The chipmaker enters earnings season with a strong track record of exceeding expectations. Broadcom has topped consensus EPS estimates in each of the past eight quarters and beaten revenue forecasts 88% of the time. Analyst sentiment has also turned increasingly bullish ahead of the report. Over the past three months, earnings estimates have seen 35 upward revisions and no downward revisions, while revenue forecasts have recorded 33 upward revisions and no downward revisions. Investors will be closely watching Broadcom's AI semiconductor business, which has emerged as a major growth driver as hyperscale customers ramp up spending on AI infrastructure. Commentary around the AI order book and Q3 guidance could be key catalysts for the stock, which has already gained nearly +40% YTD. The bullish case has also been reinforced by several customer agreements announced since Broadcom last reported earnings. On April 6, Broadcom disclosed that Anthropic plans to expand its AI infrastructure deployment from roughly 1 GW in 2026 to about 3.5 GW starting in 2027. The company also revealed a long-term TPU agreement with Google and a supply-assurance deal for AI networking components through 2031. Days later, Meta signed a multi-generation MTIA partnership with Broadcom through 2029, including an initial commitment of more than 1 GW and plans for a broader multi-gigawatt rollout. “The June 3 Q2 earnings is the first print where management can refresh the backlog with April's agreements and, potentially, revise the FY2027 guide hi...
A few months after taking over from Warren Buffett, Greg Abel is making it clear he intends to put Berkshire Hathaway 's cash hoard to work. In the span of just a few days, Berkshire committed nearly $17 billion across two major transactions, agreeing to acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8 billion, excluding debt, and investing $10 billion in Alphabet through a discounted private pla...
A few months after taking over from Warren Buffett, Greg Abel is making it clear he intends to put Berkshire Hathaway 's cash hoard to work. In the span of just a few days, Berkshire committed nearly $17 billion across two major transactions, agreeing to acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8 billion, excluding debt, and investing $10 billion in Alphabet through a discounted private placement tied to the Google parent's massive artificial intelligence fundraising effort. "On an absolute basis the figures are paltry compared to Berkshire's massive cash hoard, but it does seem Abel is working more aggressively than his predecessor to deploy the firm's balance sheet, which has been one of the main knocks against the stock," said Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge. The back-to-back deals offer one of the clearest signals yet that Abel is prepared to put Berkshire's enormous balance sheet to work after years of criticism that the company had become too cautious and was struggling to find opportunities large enough to move the needle. The conglomerate held a record cash pile of nearly $400 billion at the end of March. "Greg is demonstrating his willingness to move quickly in both transactions and is comfortable with investing in technology," said David Kass, a finance professor at the University of Maryland and Berkshire shareholder. BRK.A 1Y mountain Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares 1 year The Alphabet investment may be particularly noteworthy because it points to a willingness to pursue technology opportunities on a scale Berkshire has historically avoided. Buffett spent decades steering clear of most technology stocks, and he often described Berkshire's hugely successful investment in Apple as a consumer-products bet rather than a technology wager. Abel's $10 billion investment in Alphabet also echoes a hallmark of Buffett's dealmaking style. Berkshire received a 6.5% discount to the market price as part of the private placement, allowing it to bui...
An era of excellent coming-of-age dramas moved away from the glossy lives of wealthy American teens, but unflinching portrayals easily veer into tropes Television’s portrayal of adolescence has challenged adult complacency about young people’s lives. The best coming-of-age dramas have not just shown young people behaving badly, or dangerously, or foolishly. They have asked questions about a societ...
An era of excellent coming-of-age dramas moved away from the glossy lives of wealthy American teens, but unflinching portrayals easily veer into tropes Television’s portrayal of adolescence has challenged adult complacency about young people’s lives. The best coming-of-age dramas have not just shown young people behaving badly, or dangerously, or foolishly. They have asked questions about a society that leaves them to learn about sex, addiction and violence with little help. That idea has driven shows such as Skins , Chewing Gum, Sex Education and, at its best, Euphoria. Their value did not lie in provocation alone. Drugs, humiliation and self-destruction were ways of dramatising how power affects young lives: through families, friendships, money, class and the internet. The characters mattered to audiences – and therefore so did the scandals. Continue reading...
Volha Zhdanko/iStock via Getty Images The last time I spoke about Abivax ( ABVX ), it was with respect to a Seeking Alpha article entitled " Abivax: Maintaining 'Strong Buy' on Buyout Speculation And Obefazimod Advancement ." With respect to this article, I mentioned that the company was working on the evaluation of its first-in-class miR-124 enhancer obefazimod for the treatment of adults with mo...
Volha Zhdanko/iStock via Getty Images The last time I spoke about Abivax ( ABVX ), it was with respect to a Seeking Alpha article entitled " Abivax: Maintaining 'Strong Buy' on Buyout Speculation And Obefazimod Advancement ." With respect to this article, I mentioned that the company was working on the evaluation of its first-in-class miR-124 enhancer obefazimod for the treatment of adults with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis [UC] in the ongoing phase 3 ABTECT study. Plus, it was expected to release 44-week maintenance data from this trial. I had a "Strong Buy" rating in the previous article, and today I'm going to downgrade it to a "Hold" rating. The reason why is because it did achieve unprecedented clinical remission data using obefazimod to treat these patients with UC. Both the 25 mg and 50 mg doses of this drug achieved the primary endpoint and met all key secondary endpoints at week 44. The reason for the downgrade is because there were some rare instances of cancer that occurred in some patients . Particularly, those who took the higher dose of 50 mg of obefazimod. Why keep the rating at a "Hold?" The reason why is because the company is still pressing on towards filing a New Drug Application [NDA] to the FDA for this drug treating these moderate-to-severe UC patients. Secondly, the company notes that even though there were such cases of cancer, they were rare and likely not related to the study drug itself. The third reason is because the company can still possibly achieve U.S. marketing approval of this drug, but with a warning label as a worst-case scenario. Lastly, I believe it might have the option to press on with the lower dose of 25 mg of obefazimod if needed. This may have an overhang on the stock in the short term, but long-term I believe that this company should be okay. In addition, it is still pressing forward with the development of obefazimod for the treatment of Crohn's Disease [CD] patients in the phase 2b induction study. Data from th...
The AI trade has spent two years being almost entirely about GPUs. Nvidia dominates that conversation, and most of Wall Street has been happy to let it. Tom O'Malley at Barclays just said that framing may be missing the next big move in semiconductors. His argument centers on a single shift in how ...
The AI trade has spent two years being almost entirely about GPUs. Nvidia dominates that conversation, and most of Wall Street has been happy to let it. Tom O'Malley at Barclays just said that framing may be missing the next big move in semiconductors. His argument centers on a single shift in how ...
Caterpillar ( CAT ) is likely to announce a dividend increase in June, continuing its 32-year streak of consecutive dividend growth based on historical trends. Analysts expect a consensus annual dividend of $6.20 per share, implying a quarterly dividend of nearly $1.55, which would represent a 2.65% increase from the prior payout of $1.51. The company last declared a dividend of $1.51 per share in...
Caterpillar ( CAT ) is likely to announce a dividend increase in June, continuing its 32-year streak of consecutive dividend growth based on historical trends. Analysts expect a consensus annual dividend of $6.20 per share, implying a quarterly dividend of nearly $1.55, which would represent a 2.65% increase from the prior payout of $1.51. The company last declared a dividend of $1.51 per share in June 2026, representing an annual yield of 0.70%, and raised its dividend last June by nearly 7.09% to $1.51 from $1.41. The financial services company has delivered a 5-year dividend growth rate of approximately 7.95% and maintains an annual payout ratio of 29.65%. The company holds an A- rating for dividend safety, an A rating for growth, a D rating for dividend yield, and an A+ rating for consistency. Investors should note that Caterpillar ( CAT ) is expected to report its Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, before market open. More on Caterpillar Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Discusses Capacity Expansion and Engine Solutions for Data Centers and Gas Compression Transcript Caterpillar: A Masterclass In Execution Meeting An Irrationally Exuberant Valuation Caterpillar: Solving AI's Time-To-Power Bottleneck, But I'm Buying Its Rivals Instead Construction stocks seen benefiting from second-half recovery, UBS says Top Quant-rated stocks from Jefferies’ Franchise picks list
OpenAI ( OPENAI ) has introduced role-specific plugins, including for finance and marketing, for Codex. The company introduced plugins that adapt Codex to roles and tools, annotations that help a user refine the result in place, and a preview of the ability to create interactive websites and apps that users can share with workspaces using a URL. OpenAI said it is launching six new role-specific pl...
OpenAI ( OPENAI ) has introduced role-specific plugins, including for finance and marketing, for Codex. The company introduced plugins that adapt Codex to roles and tools, annotations that help a user refine the result in place, and a preview of the ability to create interactive websites and apps that users can share with workspaces using a URL. OpenAI said it is launching six new role-specific plugins that make Codex useful for more kinds of knowledge work, with no coding required. The data analytics plugin helps analysts and business teams answer questions with data; creative production plugin for marketing and creative teams; sales plugin for sales teams; and product design plugin for turning early ideas into prototypes teams can review. The company also introduced a public equity investing plugin that helps investors make sense of market and company information. Users can review earnings, compare companies, track signals, and assess if an investment thesis is strengthening or weakening using information from Moody’s, Daloopa, Datasite, FactSet, LSEG, S&P, PitchBook, and Hebbia. OpenAI also launched an investment banking plugin that helps bankers turn research and diligence into client-ready materials. The company added that role-specific plugins are rolling out in Codex in supported regions. The company noted that more role-specific plugins are coming soon, including Corporate Finance, Private Equity Investing, Marketing Strategy, Strategy Consulting, and Legal. OpenAI said it is building toward an open ecosystem where partners can create and deploy their own plugins directly in Codex and ChatGPT. In addition, the company said that starting in preview for business and enterprise customers, Codex can now create and share interactive, hosted websites and apps. Sites are rolling out in preview for Business and Enterprise teams through the Codex app, according to the company. Annotations in Codex now extend to content a user creates, such as documents, spreadsheets,...
USB completes BTIG buyout, adding equity trading, equity capital markets and M&A advisory to expand its capital markets platform and fee-based revenue mix.
USB completes BTIG buyout, adding equity trading, equity capital markets and M&A advisory to expand its capital markets platform and fee-based revenue mix.
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is up +0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is up +0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is up +0.29%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26 ) are up +0.20%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures...
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is up +0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is up +0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is up +0.29%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26 ) are up +0.20%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures...
Ben Garvin/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment Overview: Background To Revolution's Stunning Share Price Gains In 2025/2026 I gave Revolution Medicines, Inc. ( RVMD ) stock my first Buy rating in a note for Seeking Alpha in December 2024 , suggesting that a recent drop in the share price from >$60 to ~$48 had created a Buy the Dip scenario. I noted, amongst other things that: Revolution has ...
Ben Garvin/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment Overview: Background To Revolution's Stunning Share Price Gains In 2025/2026 I gave Revolution Medicines, Inc. ( RVMD ) stock my first Buy rating in a note for Seeking Alpha in December 2024 , suggesting that a recent drop in the share price from >$60 to ~$48 had created a Buy the Dip scenario. I noted, amongst other things that: Revolution has set itself a mission to "revolutionize treatment for patients with RAS addicted cancers through the discovery, development, and delivery of innovative, targeted medicines." RAS-mutated cancers are highly prevalent, with (according to Revolution's Q3 earnings presentation ) ~200k patients diagnosed each year, including ~60k in lung cancer, ~75k in colorectal cancer, and ~55k in pancreatic. The five-year survival rate for PDAC (Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma) is just 3%, Revolution estimates, with chemotherapy the most used primary treatment for the disease. PDAC is also the "most RAS-addicted of all major cancers", the company believes. in a subset of patients with PDAC harboring a KRAS G12X mutation in the second-line ("2L") setting, candidate RMC-6236 achieved a median progression free survival ("PFS") of 8.5 months, and median overall survival of 14.5 months. Revolution also reported landmark overall survival ("OS") for these patients at 6 months was 89% and 91% in patients with PDAC harboring a KRAS G12X mutation and patients with PDAC harboring any RAS mutation, respectively. Revolution's RASolute Phase 3 study in 2L metastatic PDAC is enrolling 460 patients, and will pit RMC-6236 300mg against standard-of-care chemotherapy, with primary endpoints of PFS and OS. In summary, we may conclude that RMC-6236, which is orally available and a "tri-complex inhibitor" that targets "all three of the major RAS mutation hotspot positions (G12, G13 and Q61)", appears to have a genuine shot at approval in PDAC, with multiple expansion opportunities into massive markets such as NSCL...