It's notoriously difficult to predict when the next recession -- commonly defined as at least two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth -- will occur. The last official recession in the U.S. occurred in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. That was 11 years after the end of the Great Recession, which lasted from 2008 to 2009. The U.S. economy experienced a "technical" r...
It's notoriously difficult to predict when the next recession -- commonly defined as at least two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth -- will occur. The last official recession in the U.S. occurred in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. That was 11 years after the end of the Great Recession, which lasted from 2008 to 2009. The U.S. economy experienced a "technical" recession in 2022, as its GDP contracted for two consecutive quarters. Yet, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- which officially dates U.S. business cycles -- refused to call it a recession. The NBER argued that the downturn, triggered by inflation and soaring interest rates, wasn't deep enough because the labor market was healthy and consumer spending remained robust. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Huang's remarks crystallized a hierarchy that Wall Street is now pricing in aggressively. "We should use copper as much as we can, for as long as we can, but copper has its limits," he said. "The right strategy is to scale up with copper as long as you can — after that you scale up further with optics, you scale out with optics and you scale across with optics. So you use optics wherever you must,...
Huang's remarks crystallized a hierarchy that Wall Street is now pricing in aggressively. "We should use copper as much as we can, for as long as we can, but copper has its limits," he said. "The right strategy is to scale up with copper as long as you can — after that you scale up further with optics, you scale out with optics and you scale across with optics. So you use optics wherever you must, you use copper wherever you can."
Shares of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) are up 5% in midday trading on Tuesday, June 2, changing hands at $127 and change after a Monday close of $121.33. Cisco stock is printing fresh all-time highs as the company unveiled a sweeping AI cybersecurity and unified management push at its annual Cisco Live U.S. conference. The networking ... Cisco Advances 5% to Record Highs on AI Cybersecurity Push, A...
Shares of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) are up 5% in midday trading on Tuesday, June 2, changing hands at $127 and change after a Monday close of $121.33. Cisco stock is printing fresh all-time highs as the company unveiled a sweeping AI cybersecurity and unified management push at its annual Cisco Live U.S. conference. The networking ... Cisco Advances 5% to Record Highs on AI Cybersecurity Push, Arista Climbs as Networking Trade Extends
Investigation follows circulation of videos showing groups climbing out of sewer systems across the city at night New York police are investigating a bizarre mystery involving groups of people emerging from the city’s manholes in recent weeks. The investigation follows the circulation of multiple social media videos showing people climbing out of sewer systems across the city, all in the middle of...
Investigation follows circulation of videos showing groups climbing out of sewer systems across the city at night New York police are investigating a bizarre mystery involving groups of people emerging from the city’s manholes in recent weeks. The investigation follows the circulation of multiple social media videos showing people climbing out of sewer systems across the city, all in the middle of the night. Continue reading...
The United States market has shown robust performance, climbing 1.6% in the last 7 days and up 28% over the past year, with earnings forecasted to grow by 17% annually. In this thriving environment, growth companies with high insider ownership can be particularly appealing as they often signal strong confidence from those closest to the business and can offer significant potential for earnings gro...
The United States market has shown robust performance, climbing 1.6% in the last 7 days and up 28% over the past year, with earnings forecasted to grow by 17% annually. In this thriving environment, growth companies with high insider ownership can be particularly appealing as they often signal strong confidence from those closest to the business and can offer significant potential for earnings growth.
A screen of energy stocks with market capitalizations above $10B highlights Baker Hughes ( BKR ), Cameco ( CCJ ) and TechnipFMC ( FTI ) among the market's most expensive names based on valuation grades. The valuation grade compares how expensive or cheap a stock is relative to others in its sector. It is based on a combination of valuation metrics such as P/E, PEG, price to sales, and price to cas...
A screen of energy stocks with market capitalizations above $10B highlights Baker Hughes ( BKR ), Cameco ( CCJ ) and TechnipFMC ( FTI ) among the market's most expensive names based on valuation grades. The valuation grade compares how expensive or cheap a stock is relative to others in its sector. It is based on a combination of valuation metrics such as P/E, PEG, price to sales, and price to cash flow, using both current and forward estimates. The overall valuation grade is derived from a comparison of all underlying metrics and reflects how attractively the stock is priced compared to its sector peers. Most expensive energy stock by valuation grade (market cap $10B and above): Baker Hughes ( BKR ): Valuation Grade F Cameco ( CCJ ): Valuation Grade F TechnipFMC ( FTI ): Valuation Grade F Cheniere Energy ( LNG ): Valuation Grade F Texas Pacific Land ( TPL ): Valuation Grade F Targa Resources ( TRGP ): Valuation Grade F Venture Global ( VG ): Valuation Grade F DT Midstream ( DTM ): Valuation Grade D- Halliburton ( HAL ): Valuation Grade D- Imperial Oil ( IMO ): Valuation Grade D- More on Baker Hughes, Imperial Oil Limited, etc. TechnipFMC plc (FTI) Presents at Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference Transcript Halliburton May Be Down, But It's Certainly Not Out Baker Hughes Company (BKR) Presents at Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference Transcript Venture Global prices $2.25B secured notes offering Venture Global announces proposed offering of $2.25B of senior secured notes
The US president seeks to curb Israel’s intensified offensive as he looks for an exit from war with Iran, but turmoil in the Middle East will not easily be ended “Let’s see how long that lasts,” Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday night, addressing his attempts to de-escalate in Lebanon following Israel’s intensified military campaign. Within hours, Israeli drone strikes had killed eight ...
The US president seeks to curb Israel’s intensified offensive as he looks for an exit from war with Iran, but turmoil in the Middle East will not easily be ended “Let’s see how long that lasts,” Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday night, addressing his attempts to de-escalate in Lebanon following Israel’s intensified military campaign. Within hours, Israeli drone strikes had killed eight people in the south, including a father and his two children, and damaged a hospital. Hezbollah continued launching rockets and drones. Anxious to escape the illegal war that he launched on Iran, and with Tehran threatening to suspend peace talks over the Israeli offensive, the US president reined in Benjamin Netanyahu – for now – in what was described as an expletive-laden phone call . Mr Trump’s post, despite its unusual admission of doubt, still oversold the agreement. He claimed that Hezbollah and Israel had agreed to “stop all shooting”. Lebanon’s presidency suggested a more limited deal: Israel would not strike Beirut’s southern suburbs if Hezbollah did not launch attacks against Israel. Continue reading...
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images In our previous coverage of Ares Management Corporation ( ARES ), we highlighted the challenges the sector faced and why investors extrapolating past returns were likely to be disappointed. We gave one solid yield pick for the conservative investor and decided to stay out of the common shares. The stock has not done too badly since then. In fact, it has generated ...
FabrikaCr/iStock via Getty Images In our previous coverage of Ares Management Corporation ( ARES ), we highlighted the challenges the sector faced and why investors extrapolating past returns were likely to be disappointed. We gave one solid yield pick for the conservative investor and decided to stay out of the common shares. The stock has not done too badly since then. In fact, it has generated some decent results, albeit with volatility. Seeking Alpha We go over the recent results and tell you why there is less upside here than what most suspect. Following that, we will tell you why the bonds still look good. Q1-2026 At first glance there was nothing remotely wrong with the results. Gross new capital still came in at a whopping $29.5 billion, with credit groups attracting more than $20 billion. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation Assets under management also hit new highs as inflows continued to outpace outflows. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation Even the most watched category, called "perpetual capital" expanded briskly. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation So what was wrong? Well, a couple of things. The bulk of this capital raise was done early in Q1-2026, when things were quiet in the credit markets. Following the "March Madness," things have decisively taken a turn for the worse. Private equity was the first to show the impacts, with quarter-over-quarter AUM turning negative even in Q1-2026. ARES Q1-2026 Presentation Now granted, that is a really tiny category, and we have taken a lot of time in the past to make fun of investors who get obsessed with the minutiae. But again, the quarter is not fully reflecting how capital has pulled back. So what is actually telling the story? It certainly is not the management commentary, which remains cheerful. In conclusion, for the year 2026, we're on track with our longer-term goals of generating compound annual growth of 16% to 20% in FRE, 20% to 25% in realized income and 20% in dividends. We anticipate continued FRE margin expansion, and we expe...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Odd Lots is coming to Hong Kong! For listeners in Hong Kong, here is one more reminder that we’ll be hosting an Odd Lots Trivia night in Hong Kong on Thursday, June 11. Start getting your team together and compete to test your knowledge of all things markets, finance, and economics. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about... For those not satisfied with a year-to-date gain of 250+%, may I present to you the opportunity for a year-to-date gain of 780+%? I’m talking of course about SK Hynix and the CSOP SK Hynix Daily 2x Leveraged Product, an ETF that aims to give investors two times the exposure to the daily moves of the underlying chipmaker’s stock. And if you think that Korean stocks have been on fire recently, then their leveraged ETF versions have been, I dunno, getting dangerously charred? Think crispy instead of Kospi. This isn’t the first leveraged single-stock ETF we’ve seen, but it feels like it has to be one of the fastest-growing with a market cap now of about $11 billion. I bring it up because Dean Curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors has a nice note/talk out discussing what may be going on with this particular levered ETF. To produce its 2x leveraged return, the ETF needs to source (obviously) leverage. This is usually done in the form of swaps with select dealer counterparties. But when a levered ETF grows this fast, finding that amount of exposure from your usual counterparties gets trickier. No single counterparty wants to end up with huge exposure to a singl...
Facebook Is Accused Of Fostering Ethnic Enclaves At Headquarters Authored by Jose Nino via Headline USA , Tech advocacy group blames visa programs for enabling corporate tribalism. A terminated software engineer is accusing Facebook parent company Meta of allowing Chinese migrants to take over entire departments while American employees face systematic exclusion and layoffs, Neil Munro of Breitbar...
Facebook Is Accused Of Fostering Ethnic Enclaves At Headquarters Authored by Jose Nino via Headline USA , Tech advocacy group blames visa programs for enabling corporate tribalism. A terminated software engineer is accusing Facebook parent company Meta of allowing Chinese migrants to take over entire departments while American employees face systematic exclusion and layoffs, Neil Munro of Breitbart News reported . Jeremy Bernier, who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2012, lost his software engineering job at the company and has gone public with allegations of widespread discrimination. " At Meta, 90% of my coworkers were Chinese, and non-Chinese were routinely excluded, disadvantaged, and targeted for layoffs ," Bernier said. He continued that "6 out of the 7 layoffs I observed targeted non-Chinese despite non-Chinese being the vast minority. Certain org[anizations] like ads and MRS [Meta Recommendation Systems for prioritizing Facebook posts] are notorious for being Chinese dominated." The former employee shared his account through multiple social media posts . "On Wednesdays and Fridays I'd often be the only non-Chinese person on my team in the office, and they'd all get lunch together without inviting me," Bernier recounted. Meta was easily the most toxic company I've worked for. There's a reason the Chinese call it "Squid Game". Others refer to it as "Hunger Games" or "Lord of the Flies". I think they're all accurate. The company culture is basically every man/woman for themselves. The performance... - Jeremy Bernier (@jeremybernier) May 21, 2026 He expressed frustration at the broader pattern he witnessed. "I think Americans would be outraged if they knew that their own citizens were getting marginalized and laid off at their own companies, while Chinese promote themselves up, conquer entire orgs, and reap millions [in pay and bonuses]," Bernier said. "Americans are practically non-existent in the most coveted, high paying tech jobs in the world at American comp...
Doucefleur/iStock via Getty Images By Brian Resnick, CFA Illiquidity premia and manager skill can play key roles. Private markets have become integral to modern portfolios, with many investors searching for higher returns and diversification, including from public markets. But recent fund redemptions have reinforced that illiquidity isn’t theoretical, raising questions about the benefits of giving...
Doucefleur/iStock via Getty Images By Brian Resnick, CFA Illiquidity premia and manager skill can play key roles. Private markets have become integral to modern portfolios, with many investors searching for higher returns and diversification, including from public markets. But recent fund redemptions have reinforced that illiquidity isn’t theoretical, raising questions about the benefits of giving up liquidity. We see several—but investors must understand the trade-offs. Private Credit: A Case Study in Private Markets To better understand the trade-offs among liquidity, market exposure and manager-specific returns, we analyzed private credit. We think it’s ideal for this analysis because its underlying economic exposures can be reasonably compared to public credit markets. Private credit also has multiple market structures that let us observe these exposures. They typically have the same underlying economic engine but different liquidity and pricing frameworks. We used statistical analysis to compare performance patterns, making adjustments because private assets are priced infrequently and often reflect market movements with a delay. The results indicate that private credit moves with broader credit markets but not to the same extent as many public investments. This pattern was consistent across private credit indices as well as non-traded and publicly traded business development companies. The Private Credit Alpha Equation So how much market risk are investors really taking in private markets? And how much of the return is driven by alpha or manager skill? The research suggests that market factors explained less than half ( Display ) of what drives long-term private credit returns. The rest seemed tied to non-market factors, which could include underwriting quality, manager decisions, applying leverage, sourcing and portfolio construction. So, it seems that private credit is neither pure alpha nor simply “hidden beta.” Instead, it appears to represent a hybrid str...
Witness B said in police interview that she pretended to be asleep when allegedly abused as a child A jury in Northern Ireland has heard details of the alleged rape of a child by the former Democratic Unionist party (DUP) leader Jeffrey Donaldson. A police interview with the complainant was played to Newry crown court in Northern Ireland on Tuesday on the sixth day of the former MP’s trial for sex...
Witness B said in police interview that she pretended to be asleep when allegedly abused as a child A jury in Northern Ireland has heard details of the alleged rape of a child by the former Democratic Unionist party (DUP) leader Jeffrey Donaldson. A police interview with the complainant was played to Newry crown court in Northern Ireland on Tuesday on the sixth day of the former MP’s trial for sex offences. Continue reading...
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News Broadcom ( AVGO ) is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the market closes on June 3, with investors looking for further evidence that AI-related demand continues to fuel the semiconductor and infrastructure software giant's growth. Wall Street expects Broadcom to post earnings of $2.40 per share, up 51.9% year over year, on revenue of $22.12B,...
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News Broadcom ( AVGO ) is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results after the market closes on June 3, with investors looking for further evidence that AI-related demand continues to fuel the semiconductor and infrastructure software giant's growth. Wall Street expects Broadcom to post earnings of $2.40 per share, up 51.9% year over year, on revenue of $22.12B, representing growth of 47.5% from the prior-year period. The chipmaker enters earnings season with a strong track record of exceeding expectations. Broadcom has topped consensus EPS estimates in each of the past eight quarters and beaten revenue forecasts 88% of the time. Analyst sentiment has also turned increasingly bullish ahead of the report. Over the past three months, earnings estimates have seen 35 upward revisions and no downward revisions, while revenue forecasts have recorded 33 upward revisions and no downward revisions. Investors will be closely watching Broadcom's AI semiconductor business, which has emerged as a major growth driver as hyperscale customers ramp up spending on AI infrastructure. Commentary around the AI order book and Q3 guidance could be key catalysts for the stock, which has already gained nearly +40% YTD. The bullish case has also been reinforced by several customer agreements announced since Broadcom last reported earnings. On April 6, Broadcom disclosed that Anthropic plans to expand its AI infrastructure deployment from roughly 1 GW in 2026 to about 3.5 GW starting in 2027. The company also revealed a long-term TPU agreement with Google and a supply-assurance deal for AI networking components through 2031. Days later, Meta signed a multi-generation MTIA partnership with Broadcom through 2029, including an initial commitment of more than 1 GW and plans for a broader multi-gigawatt rollout. “The June 3 Q2 earnings is the first print where management can refresh the backlog with April's agreements and, potentially, revise the FY2027 guide hi...
A few months after taking over from Warren Buffett, Greg Abel is making it clear he intends to put Berkshire Hathaway 's cash hoard to work. In the span of just a few days, Berkshire committed nearly $17 billion across two major transactions, agreeing to acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8 billion, excluding debt, and investing $10 billion in Alphabet through a discounted private pla...
A few months after taking over from Warren Buffett, Greg Abel is making it clear he intends to put Berkshire Hathaway 's cash hoard to work. In the span of just a few days, Berkshire committed nearly $17 billion across two major transactions, agreeing to acquire homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8 billion, excluding debt, and investing $10 billion in Alphabet through a discounted private placement tied to the Google parent's massive artificial intelligence fundraising effort. "On an absolute basis the figures are paltry compared to Berkshire's massive cash hoard, but it does seem Abel is working more aggressively than his predecessor to deploy the firm's balance sheet, which has been one of the main knocks against the stock," said Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge. The back-to-back deals offer one of the clearest signals yet that Abel is prepared to put Berkshire's enormous balance sheet to work after years of criticism that the company had become too cautious and was struggling to find opportunities large enough to move the needle. The conglomerate held a record cash pile of nearly $400 billion at the end of March. "Greg is demonstrating his willingness to move quickly in both transactions and is comfortable with investing in technology," said David Kass, a finance professor at the University of Maryland and Berkshire shareholder. BRK.A 1Y mountain Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares 1 year The Alphabet investment may be particularly noteworthy because it points to a willingness to pursue technology opportunities on a scale Berkshire has historically avoided. Buffett spent decades steering clear of most technology stocks, and he often described Berkshire's hugely successful investment in Apple as a consumer-products bet rather than a technology wager. Abel's $10 billion investment in Alphabet also echoes a hallmark of Buffett's dealmaking style. Berkshire received a 6.5% discount to the market price as part of the private placement, allowing it to bui...
An era of excellent coming-of-age dramas moved away from the glossy lives of wealthy American teens, but unflinching portrayals easily veer into tropes Television’s portrayal of adolescence has challenged adult complacency about young people’s lives. The best coming-of-age dramas have not just shown young people behaving badly, or dangerously, or foolishly. They have asked questions about a societ...
An era of excellent coming-of-age dramas moved away from the glossy lives of wealthy American teens, but unflinching portrayals easily veer into tropes Television’s portrayal of adolescence has challenged adult complacency about young people’s lives. The best coming-of-age dramas have not just shown young people behaving badly, or dangerously, or foolishly. They have asked questions about a society that leaves them to learn about sex, addiction and violence with little help. That idea has driven shows such as Skins , Chewing Gum, Sex Education and, at its best, Euphoria. Their value did not lie in provocation alone. Drugs, humiliation and self-destruction were ways of dramatising how power affects young lives: through families, friendships, money, class and the internet. The characters mattered to audiences – and therefore so did the scandals. Continue reading...