Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction & Investment Thesis The AI trade has been relentlessly pushing the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) higher since the March 30 lows, as markets believe that any economic slowdown from the Iran war would be shallow and inflation pressure from energy prices would be temporary. The good news is that corporate earnings have remained robust thus far, contributi...
Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction & Investment Thesis The AI trade has been relentlessly pushing the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) higher since the March 30 lows, as markets believe that any economic slowdown from the Iran war would be shallow and inflation pressure from energy prices would be temporary. The good news is that corporate earnings have remained robust thus far, contributing to the rally, even though it is concentrated in a handful of AI companies. Meanwhile, AI capex estimates just got revised higher , but it is no longer the operating cash flows that are funding the buildout. Instead, hyperscaler debt issuance has soared to record levels . Along with that, the volume and trading activity of hyperscaler debt insured against default, or CDS (Corporate Default Swaps), have surged as well , as investors use the instruments to de-risk against the AI trade, while banks are buying these credit derivatives to create space to keep underwriting/lending new bonds for the hyperscalers. In all of this, ROI on capex still remains a debatable topic, with FT claiming that it would be the “largest destruction of shareholder value in history” . The way I see it, the FOMO is palpable, and investor positioning is heavily crowded in AI. This is the time when any news headline or a slight disappointment in earnings can quickly snowball into massive volatility that may feel like the bursting of a bubble. It also doesn’t help when the demand for hyperscaler debt insured against default is surging, which could lead to a contagion, especially if CDS spreads start to rise in anticipation of a potential slowdown (even if temporary) in the AI buildout story. As a result, I will continue to suggest caution at these levels, as I have already raised a significant amount of cash to protect my portfolio against downside volatility. AI Capex Revised Higher Again AI-related capex has been revised higher yet again to $800B for 2026, up from $700B previously expected by analys...
Funtap/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Since I last checked in, almost exactly a year ago, I gave PagerDuty, Inc. ( PD ) its current Hold rating, and it would seem that the past year has brought the company some major changes, both positive and negative. When I initially issued that opinion, my view was that PagerDuty was moving in the right direction to achieve profitability, free cash flow, and a...
Funtap/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Since I last checked in, almost exactly a year ago, I gave PagerDuty, Inc. ( PD ) its current Hold rating, and it would seem that the past year has brought the company some major changes, both positive and negative. When I initially issued that opinion, my view was that PagerDuty was moving in the right direction to achieve profitability, free cash flow, and an extension of its platform. However, there were also some negatives, with revenue growth slowing down, inconsistencies in its sales execution, and a lack of visibility on how to get revenue re-accelerated, which is why I explained : I think that until those improvements translate into consistent bottom-line growth and reaccelerated ARR, I wouldn’t move higher than neutral. Seeking Alpha Friday's 33.74% earnings-fueled surge was impressive. The problem is the stock still trails the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) by a considerable margin. And while the company's business momentum appears to be improving and moving in a stronger direction, it still needs to prove that it can deliver meaningful and sustained growth. Until there is clearer evidence, that keeps me neutral. Is Flat Revenue Hiding A Stronger Business? Seeking Alpha Revenue : $121 million vs. Q4 $125 Revenue growth: 1% year-over-year ARR: $496 million ARR growth: flat year-over-year FY2027 revenue guidance: $488.5 million to $496.5 million. The decline in revenue has been influenced by PagerDuty's legacy pricing model, which relied on charging customers per user seat . This worked well when companies maintained steady headcount growth. However, the same model did not hold up when software companies began aggressively optimizing their workforces and reducing total employee counts. In fact, as you most likely already know, many mid-market SaaS businesses are currently under considerable financial pressure. Seat-based contracts became a kind of self-service churn machine, allowing customers to trim their bills one user at a time. ...
Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)has disclosed plans to launch a public listing in the US, opening the door for investors to trade shares of the aerospace company on the stock market. The company builds rockets, operates the Starlink satellite internet network, and also controls Musk’s controversial artificial intelligence venture xAI.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)has disclosed plans to launch a public listing in the US, opening the door for investors to trade shares of the aerospace company on the stock market. The company builds rockets, operates the Starlink satellite internet network, and also controls Musk’s controversial artificial intelligence venture xAI.
A Kalshi sign reading "Trade on what will JD Vance say at his speech?" the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Bridget Bennett | Bloomberg | Getty Images Prediction market platform Kalshi processed more than $17 billion in various trading contracts in May, a record amount up more than 2500% from a year ago. But while individuals drove Kalshi's astronomical g...
A Kalshi sign reading "Trade on what will JD Vance say at his speech?" the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Bridget Bennett | Bloomberg | Getty Images Prediction market platform Kalshi processed more than $17 billion in various trading contracts in May, a record amount up more than 2500% from a year ago. But while individuals drove Kalshi's astronomical growth over the past year, the company has focused on a new push in 2026: institutional adoption. Less than a year after trading volumes started marching consistently higher in September, Kalshi — the largest prediction market platform in the U.S. — has made a series of moves in 2026 to increase its appeal to Wall Street. Those include rhetorical shifts, partnerships with brokerage platforms and teaming up with companies to develop necessary infrastructure. And what's driving institutional interest? Hedging. Instead of having to game the financial market reactions to alleviate risks to different events, like an election or economic data report, a firm can place money on a binary contract related to that incident. "Those are tradable assets now that people can directly trade upon, as opposed to trading on a derivative of those," said Andy Ross, head of institutional at Kalshi. "So you've got better hedging." While retail's usage of the platform has led to sports-related event contracts to dominate trading volumes, sources told CNBC institutions are more interested in ones related to elections, weather incidents, macroeconomics and commodities. In Kalshi's announcement of its $22 billion valuation on May 7, the company highlighted its institutional growth rather than its retail gains. Over the prior six months, institutional trading volumes were up more than 800%, the company said. However, Kalshi has yet to reveal what the dollar volumes are for the subgroup of traders, making it unclear how much that surge represents. The outlook for institutional adoption is what's driving ...
Feature article - America’s semiconductor facilities are being built: The speciality chemical supply chains that feed them are not Speciality Chemicals Magazine
Feature article - America’s semiconductor facilities are being built: The speciality chemical supply chains that feed them are not Speciality Chemicals Magazine
SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock spent much of late 2025 looking like a fintech comeback story before giving back gains in 2026. Doubling from current levels would require a move to roughly $36.44, well above the 52-week high of $32.73. Our model says that is a stretch in the next 12 months, even with the bull ... Prediction: Will SoFi Stock Double This Year?
SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock spent much of late 2025 looking like a fintech comeback story before giving back gains in 2026. Doubling from current levels would require a move to roughly $36.44, well above the 52-week high of $32.73. Our model says that is a stretch in the next 12 months, even with the bull ... Prediction: Will SoFi Stock Double This Year?
A screen of U.S. consumer staples mid-cap stocks identifies Sendas Distribuidora S.A. ( ASAIY ), Barry Callebaut AG ( BRRLY ), and Conagra Brands ( CAG ) among the market's most attractively valued companies based on their valuation grades. The valuation grade measures how expensive or inexpensive a stock is relative to others in its sector. It incorporates several metrics, including P/E, PEG, pri...
A screen of U.S. consumer staples mid-cap stocks identifies Sendas Distribuidora S.A. ( ASAIY ), Barry Callebaut AG ( BRRLY ), and Conagra Brands ( CAG ) among the market's most attractively valued companies based on their valuation grades. The valuation grade measures how expensive or inexpensive a stock is relative to others in its sector. It incorporates several metrics, including P/E, PEG, price-to-sales, and price-to-cash-flow ratios, using both current and forward-looking estimates. The overall grade is calculated from these underlying metrics and indicates how attractively a stock is valued compared with its sector peers. Most cheap U.S. stock by valuation grade (market cap between $2B and $10B): Conagra Brands ( CAG ) A+ United Natural Foods ( UNFI ) A+ Cal-Maine Foods ( CALM ) A The Campbell's Company ( CPB ) A Darling Ingredients ( DAR ) A Molson Coors Beverage Company ( TAP ) A Albertsons Companies ( ACI ) A- Pilgrim's Pride ( PPC ) A- RLX Technology ( RLX ) A- Post Holdings ( POST ) B+ More on Consumer Staples Molson Coors: Deeply Undervalued While Offering A Double-Digit Yield (Upgrade) Darling Ingredients: The Recovery Is Visible Conagra: Get Ready For The Dividend Cut, It Will Get Ugly Molson Coors under pressure as Bernstein cuts price target on downbeat outlook Highest and lowest quant-rated mid-cap consumer staples stocks after earnings
In this article BRK.B TMHC BRK.B Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT watch now VIDEO 4:47 04:47 Taylor Morrison CEO says Berkshire Hathaway deal marks ‘a very exciting time’ for the company Squawk on the Street The announcement of a megadeal between Berkshire Hathaway and top 10, publicly traded homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home came as a surprise to most in the industry. The consensus,...
In this article BRK.B TMHC BRK.B Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT watch now VIDEO 4:47 04:47 Taylor Morrison CEO says Berkshire Hathaway deal marks ‘a very exciting time’ for the company Squawk on the Street The announcement of a megadeal between Berkshire Hathaway and top 10, publicly traded homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home came as a surprise to most in the industry. The consensus, however, is that it makes perfect sense and may signal optimism in a currently beleaguered housing market. Berkshire Hathaway agreed Sunday to acquire the nation's sixth-largest publicly traded builder in a $6.8 billion deal. The offer represents a 24% premium to the homebuilder's closing price on May 29 and values the company at about $8.5 billion, including debt. It comes at a time when the U.S. housing market is struggling under higher and volatile mortgage rates as well as higher costs for construction and weaker consumer confidence. The war with Iran has also dealt a blow to the housing market. Taylor Morrison put out a somewhat aggressive, multiyear growth plan just about 15 months ago. "We've certainly seen some shifts in the market, so the targets we put out, we stand behind. The timing certainly might have been at risk," said Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison, in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Monday. "I think one of the things we're so excited about is homebuilding runs in 5-, 7-, 10-year cycles. Berkshire thinks in probably 7-, 10-[year] and longer cycles. That alignment is very rare." It's that longer-term horizon that most analysts say is why the time is right for a deal. "What it says is that very sophisticated buyers think the valuations have bottomed," said Margaret Whelan, founder and CEO of Whelan Advisory, which specializes in homebuilder M&A. "I assume sophisticated buyers would wait and buy later or pay less if they thought the market was still going down." Stock values anticipate fundamental turns, Whelan explained, "so that means...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Odd Lots in Hong Kong! For listeners in Hong Kong, here is one more reminder that we’ll be hosting an Odd Lots Trivia night in Hong Kong on Thursday, June 11 . Start getting your team together and compete to test your knowledge of all things markets, finance, and economics. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about... Cardboard boxes. Not just useful for building forts and mulching garden beds, but they can also act as an interesting macro economic indicator. As we learned on our box episode last year , lots of stuff is moved in boxes (as well as pallets) and recent trends — notably a “Boxpocalypse” of declining demand and plant capacity — didn’t exactly bode well for the US economy. But fast forward eight months or so, and things are looking up from a box industry perspective. In fact, two developments are notable at the moment: Firstly, sentiment seems to be shifting. In a Bloomberg Intelligence survey of box makers, respondents are now projecting a 4.3% year-over-year growth in shipments. This follows on from glimmers of optimism we’ve seen in another major part of transpiration and logistics: the trucking industry . Secondly, after a couple years of pretty static price moves and even cardboard box deflation , boxes are starting to get a little more expensive. This is notable if you believe that packaging has previously been a (possibly underappreciated) driver of consumer inflation . And of course, price hikes in boxes are happening alongside increases in the cost o...
Getty Images Does reporting flat revenues even count as a stable or applause-worthy earnings report anymore? This is the type of question that I started to ask myself as I reviewed the latest earnings out of Impinj, Inc. ( PI ). It seems that bullish investors are pleased with the ability of the company to report earnings that remained stable compared to the year before, but I am less than impress...
Getty Images Does reporting flat revenues even count as a stable or applause-worthy earnings report anymore? This is the type of question that I started to ask myself as I reviewed the latest earnings out of Impinj, Inc. ( PI ). It seems that bullish investors are pleased with the ability of the company to report earnings that remained stable compared to the year before, but I am less than impressed by this performance from a company in the booming semiconductor industry . An Earnings Report That Left Plenty To Be Desired There wasn't much from Impinj's Q1 2026 earnings report that left me impressed by the performance of the company at this time. It reported earnings of $74.25M, down 0.04% YoY, and EPS of $0.14, which was $0.01 below analysts' expectations. In other words, revenue and earnings were incredibly flat compared to the year prior. This by itself would be troubling enough for the average company, but I feel that it comes off as even worse for a company like Impinj because it operates in the high-growth semiconductor industry. My question is, if there is so much activity in the sector, then why is Impinj not enjoying its fair share? Is this simply a period of temporary softness, or is this a more entrenched issue? It wasn't just the headline revenue and EPS figures that concerned me about this stock. Other factors that I am keeping my eye on include: Systems Revenue Declined By 15% YoY Cary Baker, Chief Financial Officer for the company, did his best to try to explain why systems revenue was off as much as it was, saying: Systems revenue fell short of our expectations due primarily to the timing of Lighthouse enterprise CapEx spend. However, this does not seem like an adequate enough explanation for such a steep loss, in my opinion. My concern is that this is supposed to be the area of Impinj's business that they are the most focused on expanding. If this particular part of the business isn't making up ground, then I feel that investors should be even more ...
Wall Street may be creating the first market for AI compute. Silicon Data CEO Carmen Li joins Bloomberg Open Interest to explain why AI futures could become as important as oil futures, how companies will hedge higher GPU costs, and why AI token prices are still rising despite more efficient models. (Source: Bloomberg)
Wall Street may be creating the first market for AI compute. Silicon Data CEO Carmen Li joins Bloomberg Open Interest to explain why AI futures could become as important as oil futures, how companies will hedge higher GPU costs, and why AI token prices are still rising despite more efficient models. (Source: Bloomberg)