Bloomberg Intelligence's Matthew Palazola joins Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Deals." Google parent Alphabet upsized its equity raise to $84.75 billion from the $80 billion it announced just two days earlier in a bid to help fund growing artificial intelligence spending plans. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Intelligence's Matthew Palazola joins Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Deals." Google parent Alphabet upsized its equity raise to $84.75 billion from the $80 billion it announced just two days earlier in a bid to help fund growing artificial intelligence spending plans. (Source: Bloomberg)
lcva2/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has seen a relatively fair appreciation since I last rated a Strong Buy back in late April, as it has gained around 8.5%, though on a YTD basis, Microsoft remains a laggard behind its Mag 7 peers despite a strong Azure growth rate and a massive backlog. I want to review the current dynamics of the firm and see if t...
lcva2/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has seen a relatively fair appreciation since I last rated a Strong Buy back in late April, as it has gained around 8.5%, though on a YTD basis, Microsoft remains a laggard behind its Mag 7 peers despite a strong Azure growth rate and a massive backlog. I want to review the current dynamics of the firm and see if the direction stays bullish. Current Dynamics First, Microsoft has effectively re-architected how it charges for AI as in early May, Microsoft brought to general availability its first new enterprise tier since E5 launched back in 2015. Microsoft 365 E7, or the Frontier Suite, will come at $99 per user per month, bundling E5, Copilot, the Entra security suite, and the new Agent 365. Meanwhile, E3 and E5 list prices also step up roughly 8 to 9% on July 1. I believe that this is important in the context of Copilot monetization being disappointing, as it only has around 20MM paid seats , a rather low attach rate against the 450MM commercial base with an ARR running below the Street’s expectation. But that bearish argument assumes per-seat Copilot is the monetization vector, but with E7 and Agent 365, Microsoft has changed that vector drastically. It is now charging for the agentic era on a per-human-user basis, rather than per agent on a per-unit basis of consumption. As agent density rises inside a company, Microsoft’s revenue scales with headcount, not with the volatile compute those agents burn. This could essentially be a higher-margin, higher-visibility way to monetize AI than the consumption model the market has been grading the company against. The only thing to watch out for would be that the list price is not the realized price. Microsoft has run 15 to 30% Copilot promotions between 2025 and 2026 without really showing deep penetration, and E7 will also be discounted. I also argued that the OpenAI ( OPENAI ) reset was actually a good thing for Microsoft, though the eff...
lcva2/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has seen a relatively fair appreciation since I last rated a Strong Buy back in late April, as it has gained around 8.5%, though on a YTD basis, Microsoft remains a laggard behind its Mag 7 peers despite a strong Azure growth rate and a massive backlog. I want to review the current dynamics of the firm and see if t...
lcva2/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has seen a relatively fair appreciation since I last rated a Strong Buy back in late April, as it has gained around 8.5%, though on a YTD basis, Microsoft remains a laggard behind its Mag 7 peers despite a strong Azure growth rate and a massive backlog. I want to review the current dynamics of the firm and see if the direction stays bullish. Current Dynamics First, Microsoft has effectively re-architected how it charges for AI as in early May, Microsoft brought to general availability its first new enterprise tier since E5 launched back in 2015. Microsoft 365 E7, or the Frontier Suite, will come at $99 per user per month, bundling E5, Copilot, the Entra security suite, and the new Agent 365. Meanwhile, E3 and E5 list prices also step up roughly 8 to 9% on July 1. I believe that this is important in the context of Copilot monetization being disappointing, as it only has around 20MM paid seats , a rather low attach rate against the 450MM commercial base with an ARR running below the Street’s expectation. But that bearish argument assumes per-seat Copilot is the monetization vector, but with E7 and Agent 365, Microsoft has changed that vector drastically. It is now charging for the agentic era on a per-human-user basis, rather than per agent on a per-unit basis of consumption. As agent density rises inside a company, Microsoft’s revenue scales with headcount, not with the volatile compute those agents burn. This could essentially be a higher-margin, higher-visibility way to monetize AI than the consumption model the market has been grading the company against. The only thing to watch out for would be that the list price is not the realized price. Microsoft has run 15 to 30% Copilot promotions between 2025 and 2026 without really showing deep penetration, and E7 will also be discounted. I also argued that the OpenAI ( OPENAI ) reset was actually a good thing for Microsoft, though the eff...
quantic69 Investors Should Know: The conflict in Iran has injected significant volatility into the oil market, muddying the outlook for investors searching for long-term opportunities in the sector. With this in mind, market participants are looking closely at subsectors and individual stocks to parse their exposures to current market conditions. At the same time, a close look at quantitative meas...
quantic69 Investors Should Know: The conflict in Iran has injected significant volatility into the oil market, muddying the outlook for investors searching for long-term opportunities in the sector. With this in mind, market participants are looking closely at subsectors and individual stocks to parse their exposures to current market conditions. At the same time, a close look at quantitative measures suggests potential buying opportunities. Background Since the start of the Iran conflict in late February, oil prices have become front-of-mind for many investors. The commodity initially surged as hostilities broke out and has continued to show elevated prices as the geopolitical landscape remains uncertain. However, crude has seen sharp swings during that time as well, as the prospects for a resolution to the conflict ebb and flow. Crude ( CL1:COM ) remains well off its April high. However, the price of just over $96 per barrel remains about 67% higher for 2026. In early February, the price hovered above $62 a barrel. Chart of crude prices in 2026 (Seeking Alpha) Amid this volatility, investors have tried to locate value in the market. The oil and gas sector offers a range of publicly traded companies spanning integrated majors, equipment and services, storage and transportation, and non-operator royalty models. Each of these comes with its own exposure to energy markets. Non-operator models represent one approach to energy investment. Companies in this category acquire minority working interests and mineral rights in producing basins without directly operating wells. This structure limits capital expenditure while maintaining exposure to production economics. Northern Oil and Gas ( NOG ) is a scaled non-operator focused on acquiring non-operated minority working interests and mineral rights across major basins. Among the integrated majors with publicly traded shares are Exxon Mobil Corporation ( XOM ), Chevron Corporation ( CVX ), Shell plc ( SHEL ), TotalEnergies S...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. What Joe is thinking about today It’s Jobs Week! On Friday, we get the May non-farm payrolls report, and economists are expecting a gain of 85K, along with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. I always love NFP Fridays, but unfortunately I’m going to be out of action that day, since it’s right when me and Tracy will be boarding a plane to Hong Kong, where we’ll be hosting a live trivia night. You should buy tickets if you happen to be in Hong Kong next week! Here’s something I’m thinking about. We know that we’re in a period of tremendous economic pessimism and doomerism. One of the factors that is certainly feeding all this anxiety is the constant talk of AI taking all of the jobs in the not-so-distant future. And so one of the things we’re seeing, per Tuesday’s JOLTS report is that people are quitting their jobs at very low levels. The quits rate came in at 1.9% in April, which is tied for the lowest its been since the pandemic. Workers are staying in their jobs if they have one. And while the “future of work” may be anxiety-inducing, at least for the moment, labor market indicators are mostly going in a good direction. In that same JOLTS report, jobs openings came in significantly above expectations (7.6 million vs. 6.8 million expected). Today we got the ADP report and that came in at a healthy 122,000 jobs created for May, above the 105,000 in the prior month. In his latest Bloomberg Opinion column , Conor Sen noted that the unemployment rate for yo...
UBS says the best consumer stocks share a handful of traits, including strong growth, solid returns, and an ability to exceed expectations. Viking Holdings, TJX, and Amazon are among its favorites.
UBS says the best consumer stocks share a handful of traits, including strong growth, solid returns, and an ability to exceed expectations. Viking Holdings, TJX, and Amazon are among its favorites.
The president also acknowledged that he cursed at the Israeli leader in a heated phone call in which he told Benjamin Netanyahu not to bomb the Lebanese capital Beirut. (Image credit: Chip Somodevilla)
The president also acknowledged that he cursed at the Israeli leader in a heated phone call in which he told Benjamin Netanyahu not to bomb the Lebanese capital Beirut. (Image credit: Chip Somodevilla)
Alibaba has spent the past six months weaving its own ecosystem into Qwen. Photo: VCG Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has opened its flagship artificial intelligence application Qwen to third-party service providers, allowing users to execute commercial tasks directly through the chatbot. The initial rollout includes partnerships with brands such as Luckin Coffee, KFC, and China Eastern Airlines. Users...
Alibaba has spent the past six months weaving its own ecosystem into Qwen. Photo: VCG Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has opened its flagship artificial intelligence application Qwen to third-party service providers, allowing users to execute commercial tasks directly through the chatbot. The initial rollout includes partnerships with brands such as Luckin Coffee, KFC, and China Eastern Airlines. Users can already prompt the AI to find nearby stores, recommend meals based on a specific budget, and place pickup orders, while future updates will allow companies to operate customized, proactive AI agents on the platform.
Hugo Kurk/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Ambarella, Inc. ( AMBA ) has pivoted multiple times throughout its tenure. Its most recent pivot into edge AI, specifically automotive, has caught the attention of investors over the last few years. And the increase in attention appears to at least be somewhat warranted given recent financials, and not just based on the trendy AI topic. Its metrics are larg...
Hugo Kurk/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Ambarella, Inc. ( AMBA ) has pivoted multiple times throughout its tenure. Its most recent pivot into edge AI, specifically automotive, has caught the attention of investors over the last few years. And the increase in attention appears to at least be somewhat warranted given recent financials, and not just based on the trendy AI topic. Its metrics are largely improving, from impressive annual revenue growth to shrinking net losses. Despite improvements, the valuation still appears largely out of reach due to persistent losses over the preceding years. Increasing Revenues Are Promising Listening to Ambarella’s management, the growth story is centered squarely around edge AI. And while it’s important to invest based on future prospects, I’d like to take a look at how much of the current revenue growth is due to future ideas versus what is currently being implemented. Year over year, Ambarella’s revenues grew an impressive 16.9%, from $85.9 million to $100.4 million for the period ending April 30, 2026. According to management, the growth was led by automotive revenue growth, citing, “Our automotive revenue established a new all-time revenue record, with very strong double-digit growth led by the rapid emergence of AI…” Surprisingly, this was despite other revenue lines being suppressed year over year. Automotive, in this case, refers to part of Ambarella’s edge AI portfolio specifically for AI processors and software. The growth in this category firmly reinforces the growth story surrounding edge AI and its use cases. Edge AI specifically is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.9% from 2025 through 2030 , which is completely in line with the revenue growth of Ambarella for the last quarter. We can use this to assume that Ambarella just needs to ride the wave of edge AI and not even necessarily do anything extraordinary. Grand View Research Ambarella Has A Strong Balance Sheet Changing gears, we’ll review the balance sheet to deter...
A weekly, midday program that delivers high-impact, editorially driven coverage of the most important corporate transactions shaping the global market. Today's guests: Diameter Capital Co-Founder & Managing Partner Scott Goodwin and Oaktree Managing Director & co-Portfolio Manager Christina Lee. (Source: Bloomberg)
A weekly, midday program that delivers high-impact, editorially driven coverage of the most important corporate transactions shaping the global market. Today's guests: Diameter Capital Co-Founder & Managing Partner Scott Goodwin and Oaktree Managing Director & co-Portfolio Manager Christina Lee. (Source: Bloomberg)