Abu Hanifah/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas and Michiel Tukker , Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist Payrolls incoming It's payrolls Friday. The report itself has lost some of its aura, partly due to question marks as to its accuracy (it is mostly just a survey after all). But also, the US economy has become a more complex beast to track. Eve...
Abu Hanifah/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas and Michiel Tukker , Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist Payrolls incoming It's payrolls Friday. The report itself has lost some of its aura, partly due to question marks as to its accuracy (it is mostly just a survey after all). But also, the US economy has become a more complex beast to track. Even with very little expectation for employment growth, risk assets aren't perturbed at all. Bond markets typically would be on major alert into payrolls reports, but less so in recent months. That all being said, it remains an important barometer of the labour market, and absolutely sets the tone for the months ahead. The market expectation is for employment growth of around 85k. That's an outcome that can only be described as 'meh'. But it's actually okay in the current economy, one that has the promise of a productivity revolution premised on tech and AI underpinnings. It's here that we identify a link with real yields and a rationale for them to remain elevated. We'll monitor the rest of the report too, with the unemployment rate a particular focus. At 4.3%, it remains low, defying all the layoff talk. The low jobless claims run we've been on, and again reconfirmed on Thursday, points to the same. It does feel like we're overdue a lurch higher on these metrics at some point. And for Treasury bulls, that is the type of outcome that can shake off the risk that real yields remain sticky, with more upside than downside tendencies. Overall, the remarkable feature of the anticipated payrolls outcomes is that they would typically result in a bond buying spree. Traditionally, it was all about the employment growth number. But the current immigration policy of forcing marginal workers out of the country is a curb to this number. The unemployment rate was typically not the big one to watch. More recently, it's actually the unemployment rate that really counts. That's the one that s...
The global energy crisis is threatening to slow spending among India ’s vast middle class, undermining a fragile recovery in consumption and adding to the woes of an economy already grappling with a markets and currency slump. The impact is already visible across the country — from car showrooms to clothing retailers and neighborhood shops. Business owners and sales personnel interviewed by Bloomb...
The global energy crisis is threatening to slow spending among India ’s vast middle class, undermining a fragile recovery in consumption and adding to the woes of an economy already grappling with a markets and currency slump. The impact is already visible across the country — from car showrooms to clothing retailers and neighborhood shops. Business owners and sales personnel interviewed by Bloomberg News say customers are cutting back on discretionary purchases and trading down to cheaper essentials, eroding sales and squeezing margins. Several retail companies also reported in May that shoppers are turning cautious, leading to slower sales. This pullback in spending comes just weeks after state-owned oil companies raised diesel and gasoline prices for the first time since 2022, followed by three rapid-fire hikes in a matter of days. That’s piled even more pressure onto household budgets strained by rising food, consumer goods, and cooking gas costs. At Shah Jagshi Khimji General Stores in Worli Village, near one of Mumbai’s upscale neighborhoods, owner Hitesh Furia said some of his regular customers are opting for cheaper everyday items. “Everyone’s compromising,” the 46-year-old said. “You can’t stop eating, so those who bought rice costing 60 rupees (62 cents) are buying rice costing 50 rupees.” India appears to be one of the hardest-hit major economies from the Middle East conflict outside the Gulf, exposing the vulnerability of a nation heavily dependent on imported crude oil and natural gas. The country — among the hottest destinations for foreign capital until recently — has seen that momentum reverse as the cloudy outlook sends equities tumbling and pushes overseas funds to cash out . Asia’s third-largest economy likely expanded 7.1% in the three months through March, the slowest pace in three quarters, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of official data that is due on Friday. The outlook for the year is weakening, with several analysts cutting their gro...
Trump Says Accountability Is Coming Over The 'Rigged' 2020 Election In a new, wide-ranging interview on "Pod Force One" with Miranda Devine, President Donald Trump is saying out loud what he says a growing body of evidence increasingly supports: the 2020 election was rigged, the people responsible are known, and something is coming for them. Trump was unambiguous. " We had a rigged election ," he ...
Trump Says Accountability Is Coming Over The 'Rigged' 2020 Election In a new, wide-ranging interview on "Pod Force One" with Miranda Devine, President Donald Trump is saying out loud what he says a growing body of evidence increasingly supports: the 2020 election was rigged, the people responsible are known, and something is coming for them. Trump was unambiguous. " We had a rigged election ," he told Devine. "I used to say that a year and a half ago, the election was rigged. And the cameras would literally turn off. Yeah. And the anchor would say, 'Sir, you're not allowed to say that.' Now nobody ever turns off the camera because it's been proven to be rigged." Trump added, " Look at what happened in Georgia. Look at all the stuff that we found out. It was a rigged election. Biden lost in a landslide." Trump went further, connecting the consequences of that election and the disasters that followed, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which, Trump says, "would have never happened" had he still been in office. And, of course, there was Biden's border crisis, which resulted in, by Trump's count, 25 million illegal immigrants into the United States in four years, many of whom, he said, were criminals. "And fentanyl deaths," Devine pointed out. "Yeah. He was the worst president," Trump argued. "And we were laughed at all over the world as a country. We're not laughed at anymore. We have the hottest country anywhere in the world." Devine pressed him directly on the accountability for what happened in the 2020 election. "So someone has to be punished, though, for that," she said. "So how do you do that?" "Well, you don't have to punish them all," he said. "I'd rather not get into it. Let's see what happens. The election was rigged. We know who rigged the election. We know it. We know everything now. You know, we have information that nobody thought was possible . But when you get to office, all of a sudden, people start giving you things." He knows what's coming... li...
RocketLab (NASDAQ: RKLB) stock is soaring on the back of increasing enthusiasm to invest in space stocks. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of June 2, 2026. The video was published on June 4, 2026. Continue reading
RocketLab (NASDAQ: RKLB) stock is soaring on the back of increasing enthusiasm to invest in space stocks. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of June 2, 2026. The video was published on June 4, 2026. Continue reading
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) will raise roughly $80 billion in an equity offering. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of June 2, 2026. The video was published on June 4, 2026. Continue reading
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) will raise roughly $80 billion in an equity offering. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of June 2, 2026. The video was published on June 4, 2026. Continue reading
Costco (NASDAQ: COST) stock is experiencing a rare dip. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of June 2, 2026. The video was published on June 4, 2026. Continue reading
Costco (NASDAQ: COST) stock is experiencing a rare dip. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of June 2, 2026. The video was published on June 4, 2026. Continue reading
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported an overall fantastic quarter. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of May 28, 2026. The video was published on May 30, 2026. Continue reading
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported an overall fantastic quarter. *Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of May 28, 2026. The video was published on May 30, 2026. Continue reading
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) has had a stellar run over the past few years, but those gains have been marked by significant volatility. The artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker has gained 649% since the start of 2023, but has fallen 10% or more on at least nine separate occasions. Furthermore, in early 2025, the stock plunged 41%, so it isn't for the faint of heart. Some investors have been steering c...
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) has had a stellar run over the past few years, but those gains have been marked by significant volatility. The artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker has gained 649% since the start of 2023, but has fallen 10% or more on at least nine separate occasions. Furthermore, in early 2025, the stock plunged 41%, so it isn't for the faint of heart. Some investors have been steering clear of the stock, concerned that AI adoption will slow. However, Wall Street is increasingly convinced that Broadcom's growth story remains intact. Continue reading