JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction It has been a while since I last covered Cleveland-Cliffs ( CLF ), as I gave it a hold rating , though it has appreciated by around 98.2% since, despite going through tumultuous times company-wise. Otherwise, steel companies have been surfing on a strong wave with the latest White House tariff proclamation. I want to dive back into the firm ...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction It has been a while since I last covered Cleveland-Cliffs ( CLF ), as I gave it a hold rating , though it has appreciated by around 98.2% since, despite going through tumultuous times company-wise. Otherwise, steel companies have been surfing on a strong wave with the latest White House tariff proclamation. I want to dive back into the firm to see what has changed and whether the rally since my last review is justified. Current Dynamics So, what has changed since my last analysis? Mainly, prices have increased as the US Midwest hot-rolled coil is sitting at a 26-month high at around $1,075-$1,130/ton, representing an 18% increase Y/Y. Nucor Corporation ( NUE ) also published that the spot price has been rising for roughly 19 consecutive weeks , and Section 232 enforcement pushed imports to their lowest level since 2009 , giving domestic mills genuine pricing power. But it is important to dig deeper, as investors believe that this is an enhancement of domestic raw-steel producer economics; there is a fundamental disconnect between market sentiment and operational reality. The proclamation will mostly reduce the tariff rate on downstream agricultural, HVAC, and mobile industrial equipment from 25% to 15%. This reduction represents a targeted intervention to lower input costs for capital equipment purchasers and downstream manufacturers, rather than an enhancement of domestic steelmaking margins. And the overall financial figure is still ugly, as revenue fell by 4% to $18.6B, and the net loss has roughly doubled to $1.4B, even with shipments rising to 4.1% to 16.2MM tons. CLF’s realized average selling price was $1,048/ton in the first quarter , which is up from $980 a year earlier but still trailing the spot market. That’s mainly due to a large share of volume reprices on a lag, as a large portion of sales volume is locked in under long-term commercial contracts; the gap between realized and spot is a mechanical...
sitox Merlin ( MRLN ) up 29.5% pre-market Friday after announcing the successful completion of the critical design review for its C-130J autonomy program with the U.S. Special Operations Command. The milestone validates the system's design readiness and positions the program to enter a formal test campaign, including aircraft-level testing, the cockpit autonomy provider said. Under its IDIQ contra...
sitox Merlin ( MRLN ) up 29.5% pre-market Friday after announcing the successful completion of the critical design review for its C-130J autonomy program with the U.S. Special Operations Command. The milestone validates the system's design readiness and positions the program to enter a formal test campaign, including aircraft-level testing, the cockpit autonomy provider said. Under its IDIQ contract, Merlin ( MRLN ) said it is advancing its AI-powered autonomy stack onboard Lockheed Martin ( LMT ) C-130Js flown by USSOCOM, with potential pathways for expansion across other Department of War or commercial aviation platforms. " Completing the Critical Design Review validates the architecture we've built for safe, scalable autonomy on large aircraft like the C-130J," Merlin ( MRLN ) CEO Matt George said. "As we move into integration, ground testing, and eventually flight demonstrations, we’re focused on proving autonomy from takeoff to touchdown is one of the most effective ways to improve operations and safety for U.S. warfighters." More on Merlin Merlin: Evolutionary Flight Autonomy, Not AI Hype Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating on Merlin
The EU’s trade chief has confirmed publicly for the first time that the bloc is considering a specific rule to compel companies to diversify their suppliers, as Europe looks to unwind its dependencies on China. “Diversification now requires a dedicated instrument,” commissioner for trade and economic security Maros Sefcovic said on Friday, adding that he would model it on the manner in which the E...
The EU’s trade chief has confirmed publicly for the first time that the bloc is considering a specific rule to compel companies to diversify their suppliers, as Europe looks to unwind its dependencies on China. “Diversification now requires a dedicated instrument,” commissioner for trade and economic security Maros Sefcovic said on Friday, adding that he would model it on the manner in which the EU reduced its reliance on Russian energy following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “Recent...
georgeclerk/iStock via Getty Images Wall Street has piled into the dollar debasement story ; however, as is always the case, when everyone is on one side of the trade, the other side becomes more compelling. In Part 1, we explored why Dollar Dominance Remains Alive and Well . Today, we will explore the stronger-dollar trade, the one macro trade that nobody is sized for. The most crowded short posi...
georgeclerk/iStock via Getty Images Wall Street has piled into the dollar debasement story ; however, as is always the case, when everyone is on one side of the trade, the other side becomes more compelling. In Part 1, we explored why Dollar Dominance Remains Alive and Well . Today, we will explore the stronger-dollar trade, the one macro trade that nobody is sized for. The most crowded short position on Wall Street right now isn’t tech. It isn’t the S&P. It’s the U.S. dollar. Speculators piled into eight straight weeks of dollar selling earlier this year, and asset managers flipped to a net-short DXY position for the first time in months. Every macro fund I read is leaning the same way: a weaker dollar, higher gold, higher commodities, and debasement everywhere you look. The stronger dollar trade, the trade against that consensus, is the pain trade of 2026. Make no mistake. When everyone leans the same way, the unexpected move tends to come from the other side. Positioning is the most useful tell in macro because it tells you who is already wrong. Right now, almost everyone is on one side. Saxo’s COT review for early January showed the non-commercial dollar short across IMM FX futures running near $11.9 billion, the largest bearish bet in six months. Asset managers had flipped to net short DXY for the first time since mid-October, lining up with leveraged funds in a bearish view. As Bob Farrell’s Rule #9 reminds us , when all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is usually about to happen. Here’s the problem with that argument. The debasement thesis assumed the Fed would cut . It assumed inflation would soften, and the euro, yen, and emerging-market currencies would catch a bid as global growth picked up. None of that has happened. April CPI ran 3.8%, the hottest since May 2023, and Producer prices (PPI) came in at 6% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2022. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, hit 5.2%. Traders have priced out Fed cuts for all of 20...
Industry Perspective "Lithium batteries are the new oil." - Elon Musk, Tesla CEO (publicly reported statement regarding the strategic importance of battery materials). "Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance, ...
Industry Perspective "Lithium batteries are the new oil." - Elon Musk, Tesla CEO (publicly reported statement regarding the strategic importance of battery materials). "Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance, ...
US employment growth surged in May, beating market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady, government data showed on Friday, with the labour market in the world’s largest economy sustaining recent gains. “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 per cent,” the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polle...
US employment growth surged in May, beating market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady, government data showed on Friday, with the labour market in the world’s largest economy sustaining recent gains. “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 per cent,” the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal had expected job growth of 80,000...
StealthGas press release ( GASS ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.40. Revenue of $42.8M (+1.9% Y/Y) beats by $4.4M . EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2026 amounted to $20.7 million. Reconciliations of Adjusted Net Income, EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income are set forth below. An average of 27.8 vessels were owned by the Company during the three months ended March 31, 2026 compared to 28.0...
StealthGas press release ( GASS ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.40. Revenue of $42.8M (+1.9% Y/Y) beats by $4.4M . EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2026 amounted to $20.7 million. Reconciliations of Adjusted Net Income, EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income are set forth below. An average of 27.8 vessels were owned by the Company during the three months ended March 31, 2026 compared to 28.0 vessels for the same period of 2025. More on StealthGas StealthGas: Overlooked And Deeply Undervalued Shipping Play Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on StealthGas Historical earnings data for StealthGas Financial information for StealthGas
sanfel With shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) trading below $30, J.P. Morgan’s John Ivankoe sees the risk/reward skewing more favorably to the upside, prompting an upgrade in the stock to Overweight from Neutral. “We believe a rare valuation opportunity has emerged at CMG as the stock’s multiple has now fully re-rated to reflect a more moderate—yet still well above average—growth profile,” ...
sanfel With shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) trading below $30, J.P. Morgan’s John Ivankoe sees the risk/reward skewing more favorably to the upside, prompting an upgrade in the stock to Overweight from Neutral. “We believe a rare valuation opportunity has emerged at CMG as the stock’s multiple has now fully re-rated to reflect a more moderate—yet still well above average—growth profile,” Ivankoe said in his note to clients. Ivankoe’s upgrade is based on more than just the stock’s valuation. Comparable store sales are expected to improve to 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026 from 0.5% in Q1 and improve further to 1.5% in Q3 and to 2.5% in Q4 as the combination of extra marketing and reallocated labor hours from prep to production/service will support increased efficiencies and traffic. This translates into 1.4% comparable sales in FY26 versus guidance for flat comps. Additionally, Ivankoe calls CMG “one of, if not the best value, in restaurant chains” with an entry-level chicken bowl priced at $9-$10 across most major non-high-cost markets. This is an important distinction given increased fuel costs for consumers. “In a period where gasoline prices are up 35% year-over-year, this is relevant as 4% of overall discretionary spending is on food away from home,” Ivankoe says. “Waning consumer confidence with the headline Michigan survey down 8% on a 3-month basis year-over-year as of May gives reason for pause. But we believe expectations and current valuation allow investors to be compensated for crossing this wall of worry,” Ivankoe notes. The analyst set the target price for Chipotle ( CMG ) at $35, an adjustment of 8% from the prior target, reflecting the gradual easing in the company’s growth rate that sets CMG’s target multiple at sub-30x. Despite underperforming the S&P 500 by 73 percentage points year-over-year, Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha authors remain bullish on Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) viewing the stock as a Buy. Seeking Alpha’s Quan...
King footing bill for Beatrice and Eugenie, and Duke and Duchess of Edinburgh subletting among findings A report that revealed Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor received undisclosed private income from subletting three cottages on his Royal Lodge estate in Windsor while paying a peppercorn rent to the crown estate also shines a spotlight on the property arrangements of other members of the royal family. ...
King footing bill for Beatrice and Eugenie, and Duke and Duchess of Edinburgh subletting among findings A report that revealed Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor received undisclosed private income from subletting three cottages on his Royal Lodge estate in Windsor while paying a peppercorn rent to the crown estate also shines a spotlight on the property arrangements of other members of the royal family. The National Audit Office findings include the revelation that King Charles foots the bill for Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie’s accommodation in royal palaces, despite both being “non-working royals” (in that they don’t carry out royal duties), and that the Duke and Duchess of Edinburgh also benefited from subletting their crown estate property. Continue reading...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Americans have collectively never been richer. According to Michael Hartnett at Bank of America Global Research, U.S. household equity wealth is up a whopping $6 trillion so far this year, fueled by tremendous stock market gains at home and abroad. This “boom loop” should be great news for asset managers and financial advisory firms. Unfortunately for LP...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Americans have collectively never been richer. According to Michael Hartnett at Bank of America Global Research, U.S. household equity wealth is up a whopping $6 trillion so far this year, fueled by tremendous stock market gains at home and abroad. This “boom loop” should be great news for asset managers and financial advisory firms. Unfortunately for LPL Financial Holdings Inc. ( LPLA ), the 2026 equity rally hasn’t provided much of a tailwind. Indeed, shares are down 15% since my January 2025 downgrade . Today, however, I see a much-improved valuation with solid earnings growth on the horizon. Thus, I am upgrading LPLA to a Buy. The technicals, meanwhile, are not all that inspiring. LPL Lags XLF & SPY Since Early 2025 stockcharts.com Back in April, LPL reported a mixed set of quarterly results. Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $5.60 topped the Wall Street consensus forecast of $5.47, while revenue of $4.94 billion, up 35% from the same period a year earlier, was a small $60 million miss. The company tallied total client assets of $2.3 trillion, a 30% YoY jump, with organic net new assets of $21 billion (4%) annualized growth. Shares fell 4.6% in the session that followed, marking the worst earnings reaction back to July 2025. Looking ahead to the July 30 Q2 report, the options market prices in a somewhat high 7.3% earnings-related stock price swing based on the at-the-money straddle expiring soonest after the release. Implied volatility on shares of the $23 billion market cap Financials sector company is elevated at 44%, according to data from Option Research & Technology Services. Short interest is low, but notable at 3.94%. Looking back on the quarter that was, the full-service wealth management firm got off to a strong start to the year. To go along with the aforementioned AUM gains, its adjusted pre-tax margin of 38% and last-12-month adjusted EPS of $20.54 were solid profitability trends. LPL Financial: Color on Quarter LPL Finan...