The dollar index (DXY00 ) today rallied to a 1.75-month high and is up by +0.35%. The dollar recovered from early losses today and moved higher on the stronger-than-expected US May payroll report, bolstering speculation that the next Fed move will be an interest rate increase. Today's stock slump has...
The dollar index (DXY00 ) today rallied to a 1.75-month high and is up by +0.35%. The dollar recovered from early losses today and moved higher on the stronger-than-expected US May payroll report, bolstering speculation that the next Fed move will be an interest rate increase. Today's stock slump has...
Key PointsThe Simplify Health Care ETF has significantly outperformed the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF on a 1-year total return basis.
Key PointsThe Simplify Health Care ETF has significantly outperformed the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF on a 1-year total return basis.
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Overview Over the past twelve months, the stock of New Jersey-headquartered Pharma giant Merck & Co., Inc. ( MRK ) has quietly increased by a sector-leading 55%. However, on a three-year basis, its stock is up just 6%. The current traded price is $120, and the current market cap valuation is $297bn. This makes Merck the world's fifth-...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Overview Over the past twelve months, the stock of New Jersey-headquartered Pharma giant Merck & Co., Inc. ( MRK ) has quietly increased by a sector-leading 55%. However, on a three-year basis, its stock is up just 6%. The current traded price is $120, and the current market cap valuation is $297bn. This makes Merck the world's fifth-largest Pharma by my calculation, behind only Eli Lilly ( LLY ), Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ), AbbVie ( ABBV ), and Roche ( RHHBY ). Merck share price performance - 5-year (TradingView) As we can see in the slide above (source: TradingView), strong gains from 2021 to mid-2024 were wiped out in the latter half of 2024 and 2025, before stocks began climbing rapidly again. Some sell-offs appear to have been tied to earnings releases, plus some other events, i.e., the announcement of President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs last April, and follow-up threats to impose tariffs on Pharma companies specifically, but the main issue that has been dominating analysts agenda in relation to Merck and weighing down its stock, in my view, is the Keytruda patent expiry. As many readers will be aware, Keytruda (pembrolizumab) is Merck's flagship oncology drug, an immune checkpoint inhibitor ("ICI") that targets programmed death ligand-1 ("PD-1"). In 2025, Keytruda was the world's best-selling prescription drug, earning revenues of ~$29.5bn. It is approved to treat a wide range of solid tumor cancers—44 separate indications in total—often with a best-in-class profile, and in Q1, its revenues increased 12% year-on-year, to ~$8bn. The "issue" is that a core Keytruda composition-of-matter patent will expire in late-2028, and after that, it is likely that generic versions of Keytruda will begin to flood the market, potentially meaning Merck will no longer be able to charge a premium price for the drug it developed and may lose large chunks of market share also. For context, AbbVie's immunology drug...
Palantir and Kirkland & Ellis partner to transform private equity fundraising with exclusive AI-powered fund enterprise platform Institutional Real Estate, Inc.
Palantir and Kirkland & Ellis partner to transform private equity fundraising with exclusive AI-powered fund enterprise platform Institutional Real Estate, Inc.
The U.S. economy is navigating an unusual period in which two large capital cycles are unfolding side by side. While aging roads, bridges, and transit systems show signs of strain — with potholes, maintenance backlogs, and growing congestion — the country is simultaneously experiencing a rapid expansion of AI-related infrastructure. Capital is flowing heavily into ... AI Data Center Construction O...
The U.S. economy is navigating an unusual period in which two large capital cycles are unfolding side by side. While aging roads, bridges, and transit systems show signs of strain — with potholes, maintenance backlogs, and growing congestion — the country is simultaneously experiencing a rapid expansion of AI-related infrastructure. Capital is flowing heavily into ... AI Data Center Construction Outstrips Transportation Spending as Roads and Bridges Crumble
onurdongel/iStock via Getty Images Curtiss-Wright Corporation ( CW ) is a strong company priced at an impossible valuation. The market seems to assume that the good news is not just durable but near-certain for long into the future. At $743.43, CW trades at roughly 48.25x forward non-GAAP earnings, 32.92x forward EV/EBITDA, and 7.39x forward EV/sales. I will start here and see what needs to be don...
onurdongel/iStock via Getty Images Curtiss-Wright Corporation ( CW ) is a strong company priced at an impossible valuation. The market seems to assume that the good news is not just durable but near-certain for long into the future. At $743.43, CW trades at roughly 48.25x forward non-GAAP earnings, 32.92x forward EV/EBITDA, and 7.39x forward EV/sales. I will start here and see what needs to be done for the valuation to be justified. That exercise will make it obvious why I rate this absolutely good business a Sell on current valuation. Other than valuation, there are very few problems with this company—in fact, that premium valuation is an indicator of how strong the Curtiss-Wright business is. Q1 was strong ; management raised guidance. Its naval defense, commercial nuclear, defense electronics, and aerospace segments are all going strong. Free cash flow generation remains impressive. But at current multiples, the market seems to have factored these all in—and then some. I do not think the risk/reward is attractive here. The Valuation Is The Story I have used $743.43 as the share price as it is on Seeking Alpha right now. The rest of my baseline data, shown below, is also from the same source: Author This is quite demanding. You could justify a premium multiple for a high-quality compounder, but a 50x forward earnings multiple is not merely a premium. It is an aggressive assumption that the company’s durable defense and nuclear exposure will remain durable not just for a year or two, but for a decade. The Earnings Multiple Leaves Little Room For Error Curtiss-Wright raised its 2026 guidance; here are the details I have used: Author Using that EPS midpoint, the current price implies roughly 49.2x 2026 earnings. That is slightly above the Seeking Alpha forward non-GAAP P/E of 48.25x, which appears to use consensus rather than the company’s guidance midpoint. That is also over 2.4x the sector median. Either way, the conclusion is the same: the stock is priced at a ver...
Ubiquiti reported solid revenue growth and a debt-free balance sheet, but investors sent the stock tumbling anyway. What did the market see that the headlines missed?
Ubiquiti reported solid revenue growth and a debt-free balance sheet, but investors sent the stock tumbling anyway. What did the market see that the headlines missed?
From Near-Bankruptcy to the AI and Autonomy Bet Ten years ago, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) was a Model S and Model X maker scrambling to ramp the Model 3 and absorb SolarCity. The decade since has packed in production hell, a brush with insolvency, S&P 500 inclusion in late 2020, a euphoric run past a $1 trillion ... Tesla Turned $1,000 Into This Much The Past 10 Years
From Near-Bankruptcy to the AI and Autonomy Bet Ten years ago, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) was a Model S and Model X maker scrambling to ramp the Model 3 and absorb SolarCity. The decade since has packed in production hell, a brush with insolvency, S&P 500 inclusion in late 2020, a euphoric run past a $1 trillion ... Tesla Turned $1,000 Into This Much The Past 10 Years
June 8: Hang Seng indexes adjustment takes effect The latest adjustments to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Composite Index take effect. Notably, Chinese artificial intelligence leaders MiniMax and Zhipu will join the Hang Seng Tech Index, addressing its previous lack of pure AI-chip and hard-tech stocks. June 8: Xi visits North Korea
June 8: Hang Seng indexes adjustment takes effect The latest adjustments to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Composite Index take effect. Notably, Chinese artificial intelligence leaders MiniMax and Zhipu will join the Hang Seng Tech Index, addressing its previous lack of pure AI-chip and hard-tech stocks. June 8: Xi visits North Korea