UniqueMotionGraphics/iStock via Getty Images Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller on Friday cast serious doubt on the textbook look-through strategy to handle the Iran war-induced inflationary pressure — or what we fashionably called the “War? Sh~” strategy. And he is not the only central banker who has expressed reservations. In normal times, central banks tend to ignore oil price surges. It is ...
UniqueMotionGraphics/iStock via Getty Images Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller on Friday cast serious doubt on the textbook look-through strategy to handle the Iran war-induced inflationary pressure — or what we fashionably called the “War? Sh~” strategy. And he is not the only central banker who has expressed reservations. In normal times, central banks tend to ignore oil price surges. It is because oil price fluctuations - and the war that pushes them higher - tend to be short-lived. Given the long and variable lag of monetary policy impact, it is likely that when the rate hikes finally affect the real economy, the inflation problem has already gone away. War? Sh~! We don’t need to talk too much about it. But Waller on Friday deployed a fancy term - Bayesian Learning - to illustrate his warning against ignoring the Iran war inflation episode. The concept is about how people will update their prediction given new information. In this case, the observed inflation rate, which has been pushed above the 2% target by successive supply shocks for the last five years, is the information in question. The public so far believes that inflation will ultimately return to the target. But when the evidence keeps challenging their core belief, they will ultimately update their belief in accordance with observations. “There must be some reason the inflation rate can’t be returned to 2% and it is foolish to trust that it will.” This updated belief will introduce higher inflation expectations, and the unanchored expectation will lead to a vicious cycle, pushing the inflation even higher. In fact, Waller is not alone in worrying about this situation. As early as September last year, Megan Greene, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, gave a speech on why, as supply shocks become more frequent and severe, look-through may no longer be the optimal strategy. In a recent Odd Lots episode , Greene applied her argument to the Iran war-inflicted economy....
Taiwan is experiencing explosive GDP growth due to chip exports, but some Taiwanese feel left out. Taipei, Taiwan – For Li, an engineer at Taiwanese computer giant ASUS, the AI boom sweeping Taiwan has made it an exciting time to work in tech. Taiwan is a semiconductor powerhouse, producing about 90 percent of the most advanced chips used to power leading AI models such as ChatGPT and Claude. “I’v...
Taiwan is experiencing explosive GDP growth due to chip exports, but some Taiwanese feel left out. Taipei, Taiwan – For Li, an engineer at Taiwanese computer giant ASUS, the AI boom sweeping Taiwan has made it an exciting time to work in tech. Taiwan is a semiconductor powerhouse, producing about 90 percent of the most advanced chips used to power leading AI models such as ChatGPT and Claude. “I’ve felt Taiwan’s tech and computer industry becoming more vibrant,” Li, who asked not to be identified by his real name, told Al Jazeera, pointing to events such as the upcoming Computex tech and AI expo running from June 2 to 6. Still, Li worries that the spoils of Taiwan’s AI windfall are not being shared equally. “Most industries unrelated to tech don’t seem to be feeling the benefits, so it doesn’t feel evenly distributed at the moment,” Li said, explaining that many of his former classmates working outside of tech do not appear to be doing as well. “It’s mainly the industries at the front of this tech wave that are benefitting.” Taiwan’s economy is growing at a pace that would be the envy of any country. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 8.63 percent in 2025, followed by a heady 13.69 percent expansion in the first three months of this year. Exports surged 34.9 percent last year to $640.7bn, with more than two-thirds of the total being tech-related goods and services. Advertisement Semiconductors alone account for more than 20 percent of Taiwan’s GDP, according to US trade data, with the vast majority of production handled by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), whose top customers include Nvidia and Apple. TSMC by itself accounts for more than 40 percent of the value of the island’s stock market. While impressive, the rapid economic expansion has raised concerns about being overreliant on the growth of AI. Taiwan’s Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-lung has sounded the alarm about an emerging “K-shaped economy,” where certain sectors grow rapidly while othe...
WTO争端解决机制停摆后,原本应在WTO解决的部分争端可能被迫转向美国国内司法体系,使CIT在WTO缺席时起到制度补位的功能 贸易争端纷纷进了CIT 又一件新闻将美国国际贸易法院(Court of International Trade,简称 CIT)推到公众视野。 上一次是学智公司(Learning Resources)等就2025年4月美国政府全球关税措施起诉政府,美国国际贸易法院受理后判原告...
WTO争端解决机制停摆后,原本应在WTO解决的部分争端可能被迫转向美国国内司法体系,使CIT在WTO缺席时起到制度补位的功能 贸易争端纷纷进了CIT 又一件新闻将美国国际贸易法院(Court of International Trade,简称 CIT)推到公众视野。 上一次是学智公司(Learning Resources)等就2025年4月美国政府全球关税措施起诉政府,美国国际贸易法院受理后判原告胜诉。上诉后,2026年2月,美国最高法院支持了美国国际贸易法院的判决,认为政府无权根据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收全球关税。 最高法院判决后,美国政府立即宣布改用《1962年贸易扩展法》和《1974年贸易法》第122条授权,对几乎所有国家的商品征收10%的关税。这一次是两家公司(Burlap & Barrel 和 Basic Fun)对政府的这项关税行为向国际贸易法院提起诉讼。 推荐进入 财新数据库 ,可随时查阅宏观经济、股票债券、公司人物,财经数据尽在掌握。
GOOG traded near $387 after I/O, up year-to-date. Analysts set targets ~ $412–$515 and highlighted AI roadmap and potential enterprise adoption, noting market and analyst reactions. 1 GOOG disputes an EU fine over DMA-linked search changes, saying they harm European search quality and favor a few complainants; a final decision on Google Search is due before the summer break. 2 EU draft Cloud and A...
GOOG traded near $387 after I/O, up year-to-date. Analysts set targets ~ $412–$515 and highlighted AI roadmap and potential enterprise adoption, noting market and analyst reactions. 1 GOOG disputes an EU fine over DMA-linked search changes, saying they harm European search quality and favor a few complainants; a final decision on Google Search is due before the summer break. 2 EU draft Cloud and AI Act (June 3) may restrict Alphabet Class C (GOOG) access to EU cloud for sensitive public contracts, curbing its role in certain government procurement projects. 3 Alphabet (GOOG) warned Canadian lawmakers a proposed bill on police access to device data could force product redesigns, weaken encryption and user privacy, and enable secret government pressures. 4
Edelweiss81/iStock via Getty Images The stock market has been hitting record highs recently, and it appears to be very resilient, shrugging off many concerns, from rising bond yields to surging oil prices and the war in Iran. While this could make some investors feel like this bull market is unstoppable, I see euphoria and other signs that have historically indicated the stock market could be at o...
Edelweiss81/iStock via Getty Images The stock market has been hitting record highs recently, and it appears to be very resilient, shrugging off many concerns, from rising bond yields to surging oil prices and the war in Iran. While this could make some investors feel like this bull market is unstoppable, I see euphoria and other signs that have historically indicated the stock market could be at or near a top. If you look at bull market tops in the past, the highs are usually reached when there is a lot of money being made to the point where it seems like it grows on trees, and it feels great to be buying stocks. By contrast, stock market bottoms are typically hit when it seems like stocks will never stop going down and the last thing you want to do is buy more stock. Right now, I see multiple signs that could be indicating it is time to sell stocks into this strength and that we might be at or near a major top for this bull market run. Let's take a closer look at these potential warning signs of a stock market top: The Chart As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 Index ( SPY ) has surged higher from the March lows, and so much so that it even looks like a hockey stick has been drawn on the chart. This type of chart pattern is similar to "blow-off tops" that we frequently see with stocks that sometimes mark the top. The other concern that I have with this chart is that it shows what could become a very bearish "double top" since this index traded around the 7,500 level several days ago and just hit this level again. To avoid a double top formation, this index will need to break out beyond the 7,500 level. StockChart.com Signs Of Investor Greed As shown below, the CNN Fear & Greed Index shows that investors are getting greedy. Perhaps this index will climb higher into the extreme greed level, but either way, I prefer to buy stocks when this index is at extreme fear levels. cnn.com Red Hot IPO Market With Exceedingly High Valuations I believe many investors are excited...
What Happened? A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after Micron's blowout day signaled that AI-driven chip demand is structurally undersupplied which is bullish news for the equipment makers and foundries that build the capacity. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment (Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, ASML) and foundries (TSMC, GlobalFoundries) benefit when chip companies announ...
What Happened? A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after Micron's blowout day signaled that AI-driven chip demand is structurally undersupplied which is bullish news for the equipment makers and foundries that build the capacity. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment (Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, ASML) and foundries (TSMC, GlobalFoundries) benefit when chip companies announce capacity expansions. Every dollar of additional Micron capex flows to the equipment makers that supply the tools, and every new fab Micron builds is a multi-year revenue stream for the foundries that share processes. UBS estimated Micron will spend $50B+ on capacity over the next 5 years. At industry-average tool intensity, that's billions of equipment orders. The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Among others, the following stocks were impacted: Zooming In On Semtech (SMTC) Semtech’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 45 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The previous big move we wrote about was 5 days ago when the stock gained 2.2% on the news that AI chip leader Nvidia reported record sales and income, driven by what its CEO described as 'parabolic' demand for AI infrastructure. The strong results confirmed investors' belief in a sustained AI-driven boom, lifting the entire semiconductor sector. Nvidia's success signals a massive buildout of data centers, which require a vast supply of high-performance chips. This directly benefits memory chip manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix, which produce essential components like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). The intense demand has led some analysts to declare a 'semiconductor supercycle,' a prolonged period of above-average growth for the industry, as companies worldwide r...
Insight with Haslinda Amin, a daily news program featuring in-depth, high-profile interviews and analysis to give viewers the complete picture on the stories that matter. The show features prominent leaders spanning the worlds of business, finance, politics and culture. (Source: Bloomberg)
Insight with Haslinda Amin, a daily news program featuring in-depth, high-profile interviews and analysis to give viewers the complete picture on the stories that matter. The show features prominent leaders spanning the worlds of business, finance, politics and culture. (Source: Bloomberg)
Northern Ireland manager Michael O'Neill has signed a four-year contract extension to keep him at the helm until 2032. O'Neill had been appointed interim Blackburn Rovers boss in February and had been balancing this role with his position at Northern Ireland. However, it was announced earlier in the month that he would not be taking on the Blackburn job on a permanent basis. The 56-year-old has ma...
Northern Ireland manager Michael O'Neill has signed a four-year contract extension to keep him at the helm until 2032. O'Neill had been appointed interim Blackburn Rovers boss in February and had been balancing this role with his position at Northern Ireland. However, it was announced earlier in the month that he would not be taking on the Blackburn job on a permanent basis. The 56-year-old has managed Northern Ireland a record 104 games including during their first major tournament appearance in 30 years, the 2016 Euros. "This is a role that means a great deal to me," O'Neill said. "I continue to believe strongly in the potential of this group of players and the direction we are moving in. "There is a lot of work ahead, but I am excited by the future." O'Neill will be aiming to bounce back with his young squad after their disappointing play-off defeat by Italy ended their hopes of making the 2026 World Cup. Northern Ireland face Guinea in an international friendly on 4 June before travelling to face France four days later as preparation for their upcoming Nations League campaign which starts in September.
TradingKey - According to a CNBC report on Tuesday, Elon Musk has discussed merging SpaceX with Tesla ( TSLA ). The world was stunned by this sudden bombshell. However, in the face of this unprecedented 'trillion-dollar merger' in business history, should investors celebrate or make an early exit? Given the close relationship between the two companies and Musk's personal vision, a merger between S...
TradingKey - According to a CNBC report on Tuesday, Elon Musk has discussed merging SpaceX with Tesla ( TSLA ). The world was stunned by this sudden bombshell. However, in the face of this unprecedented 'trillion-dollar merger' in business history, should investors celebrate or make an early exit? Given the close relationship between the two companies and Musk's personal vision, a merger between SpaceX and Tesla is entirely possible. Musk has long envisioned building a "trillion-dollar ultimate AI and aerospace empire." If the two companies merge, it would allow him to rapidly consolidate wealth and control, laying the foundation for realizing this dream. More importantly, the two companies share numerous intersections and are even inextricably linked, primarily in three areas: (1) Cross-shareholding: Tesla previously invested $2 billion in xAI, and this investment has automatically converted into SpaceX shares following the merger of SpaceX and xAI; (2) Related-party transactions: Over the past year, SpaceX has purchased Megapack energy storage systems worth up to $697 million from Tesla, and additionally spent $131 million on Tesla electric vehicles; (3) Technology sharing: The two companies share a large number of top engineers, vice presidents of materials science, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) chips, and are currently co-developing a proprietary AI chip project named "Terafab." Of course, the merger of the two companies is not a whim but has been in the works for a long time. According to CNBC, Musk has discussed this not only with confidants and executives, but Tesla employees have also revealed that the idea of a merger has been discussed internally for many years.
LumiNola/E+ via Getty Images Strong earnings, rising competition and the outlook for AI were key themes on US property and casualty insurers' first quarter earnings calls. The sector posted its strongest first quarter in 25 years for underwriting gains and combined ratio, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. Underwriting gains totaled $22.10 billion, and the combined ratio befo...
LumiNola/E+ via Getty Images Strong earnings, rising competition and the outlook for AI were key themes on US property and casualty insurers' first quarter earnings calls. The sector posted its strongest first quarter in 25 years for underwriting gains and combined ratio, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. Underwriting gains totaled $22.10 billion, and the combined ratio before policyholder dividends was 89.1%. Piper Sandler analyst Paul Newsome said overall profitability was strong. "When you step back, earnings were pretty good," Newsome said in an interview. "Companies had very high ROEs, even though the weather was normal to heavy in the quarter." Growth stories The Progressive Corp. ( PGR ) continued to grow in the quarter, booking net income of $2.82 billion, total revenue of $22.19 billion and an underwriting profit margin of 13.6%. Net premiums written rose to $23.6 billion, and the Mayfield, Ohio-based insurer added 3.3 million policies in force, bringing its total to 39.57 million. CEO Tricia Griffith said on the company's first quarter earnings call that the current soft market shows no sign of ending, though competition is intensifying "because everyone has great margins" and the competition "is great for consumers." "We think this is a really great opportunity to continue on our growth trajectory and continue to get more and more policyholders to [...] not just to be No. 1 in private passenger auto, but to be the No. 1 destination," Griffith said. Progressive achieved that first goal at the end of March, when it overtook State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. as the biggest private auto insurer. Progressive's direct premiums written in the 12 months ended March 31 surpassed State Farm's, ending its run as segment leader since 1942. The Allstate Corp. ( ALL ) grew its NPW to $14.63 billion and total revenue to $16.9 billion. Its property-liability business grew policies in force to 38.56 million and posted underwriting income of...
A 68-year-old construction worker is in critical condition after being struck by an electric chain hoist at a Hong Kong government site undergoing drainage replacement works on Wednesday morning. The site on Yen Chow Street in Sham Shui Po is part of the government’s drainage pipe replacement project that spans from Tsuen Wan to West Kowloon. The project is expected to be completed by the end of t...
A 68-year-old construction worker is in critical condition after being struck by an electric chain hoist at a Hong Kong government site undergoing drainage replacement works on Wednesday morning. The site on Yen Chow Street in Sham Shui Po is part of the government’s drainage pipe replacement project that spans from Tsuen Wan to West Kowloon. The project is expected to be completed by the end of this year. Police said they received a report from the site at 8.30am. One of the victim’s colleagues found him unconscious and bleeding from the head. Advertisement The worker was sent to Princess Margaret Hospital in Kwai Chung for immediate surgery. Police, Labour Department and Drainage Services Department officers investigating the accident at the Yen Chow Street site in Sham Shui Po. Photo: Jelly Tse The Association for the Rights of Industrial Accident Victims said he was in critical condition.
When Venkatesham started work on 1 June last year, he had high hopes. "On my very first day, what I thought would be a realistic target for the men's first team would be competing for European places," he said. Even though Tottenham had just finished 17th under Ange Postecoglou, they had won the Europa League, their first trophy since 2008, while the squad was packed with seasoned internationals. ...
When Venkatesham started work on 1 June last year, he had high hopes. "On my very first day, what I thought would be a realistic target for the men's first team would be competing for European places," he said. Even though Tottenham had just finished 17th under Ange Postecoglou, they had won the Europa League, their first trophy since 2008, while the squad was packed with seasoned internationals. But reality quickly struck. "If you'd have asked me a few months after I joined, when I was no longer an outsider, I would have told you the club was in a significantly worse state in some places than I thought," said Venkatesham. "That is absolutely not meant to be a criticism of anyone or anything. It was just what I found. It was very clear that this wasn't some form of turnaround that was required of the club in quite a few areas. It was really a complete reset." Asked to expand on that, Venkatesham said: "If I had to generalise, I would say on the non-football side of the club, in particular around stadium operations and commercial, that the club was and is really strong. "I think if you look at the football side of the club, over a timeframe of five years or so, there has just been an explosion in progress across the Premier League. "I'm not saying that Tottenham didn't improve in that period. But what I can tell you is that when you look at where Tottenham were in many of those areas, compared to where I believe other Premier League clubs are, there was a significant gap. In some areas really quite worryingly so. "I don't think that there was what I would call a relentless obsession with football success. "Our training centre is amazing, one of the best, if not the best in the world. But when you look around, it looks more like a five-star hotel than it does a performance environment. That will change over the summer. "I think there are many areas where the club hasn't got the right level of expertise."