Unusual moves in an oil-market gauge are prompting Vanguard Asset Management Ltd. to buy insurance against stickier-than-expected US inflation. Gasoline prices have fallen, but they’ve failed to match the sharp slump in crude since the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, sending the gap between the two to the highest since 2022. Ales Koutny , head of international rates at Vanguard’s active funds, said he’...
Unusual moves in an oil-market gauge are prompting Vanguard Asset Management Ltd. to buy insurance against stickier-than-expected US inflation. Gasoline prices have fallen, but they’ve failed to match the sharp slump in crude since the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, sending the gap between the two to the highest since 2022. Ales Koutny , head of international rates at Vanguard’s active funds, said he’s watching the so-called crack spread for signs the price of refined products will pick up again, driving inflation. “We have never followed this so closely,” Koutny said in an interview. “Because of the high correlation to oil prices, crack spreads are normally an afterthought, but prices for gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and fuel oil are all behaving very differently to oil prices.” While crack spreads are a fairly typical metric in oil trading, measuring the gap between finished fuels and the price of crude, they’re a less-commonly observed data point for bondholders. The Iran war has led to a sharp drop in how much fuel the world’s oil refineries are making, while a wave of Ukrainian attacks on the plants in Russia has prompted Moscow to ban exports of diesel, driving up its refining margins. “The question is whether the spread will normalize, or will the low correlation become a more structural feature which could impact inflation risks,” Koutny said. “These deviations could affect both sides of the argument, and this could be quite significant.” Two-year breakeven levels for US Treasuries, which track the difference between nominal yields and inflation-protected ones, have tumbled over the past month and now trade around their lowest levels in nearly two years, suggesting that markets see inflation hovering only slightly higher than the Fed’s 2% target level in two years’ time. Fine-Tuning That move has prompted Koutny and his team to open a long position in short-dated inflation-protected Treasuries as well as breakevens at the longer end of the curve on the belief that...
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images A simple question, what's the weather, has a deep apparatus behind it. It starts at the federal level and flows down to the states. Here is how that works. Welcome back to The Muni Brief, a series on municipal credit and markets. In each installment, Senior Municipal Strategist James Colby examines current events, policy developments, and fiscal trends throug...
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images A simple question, what's the weather, has a deep apparatus behind it. It starts at the federal level and flows down to the states. Here is how that works. Welcome back to The Muni Brief, a series on municipal credit and markets. In each installment, Senior Municipal Strategist James Colby examines current events, policy developments, and fiscal trends through the lens of the muni investor, covering topics both local and national. What's the Weather Going to Be? Everyone wants to know: what's the weather going to be? It is the most ordinary question there is. Yet, the answer runs through one of the more layered pieces of public finance in the country. From the extreme to the sublime, from the moment-to-moment pinpointing of dangerous events to the recognition of multi-decade trends impacting the survival and sustainability of millions, societies require a real commitment to managing weather outcomes. Just how we do it here in America combines both public finance and science. There Is No Line Item for the Weather Weather is, as the broadcast stations like to say, hyper-local. But its impact can be Continental. Look through any state budget, and you will not find a heading that reads “weather forecasting.” The spending is real, but it is scattered. It lives inside emergency management agencies, departments of transportation, utilities, and water resource agencies, and it changes shape depending on what a given state actually has to worry about. Most states also fund a Climatological Service Office. Wyoming is the exception. These offices are not federally mandated. Each one is created and paid for by the state itself or by a host institution, usually a land-grant university. Consequently, the economic characteristics of each state can vary the mandate. A smaller state might run a lean analytical team on less than $1 million a year. A large, exposed state might operate several sizable climate offices. Their job is to capture data ...
Beazer (BZH) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might not help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.
Beazer (BZH) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might not help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.
FedEx stock has delivered a 64.8% return over the past year, while both an intrinsic value estimate using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach and earnings multiples currently suggest the shares trade at a discount to what the underlying cash flows imply. Over the last 1 year, FedEx has returned 64.8%. This puts fresh attention on whether the current price still leaves room for further value to b...
FedEx stock has delivered a 64.8% return over the past year, while both an intrinsic value estimate using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach and earnings multiples currently suggest the shares trade at a discount to what the underlying cash flows imply. Over the last 1 year, FedEx has returned 64.8%. This puts fresh attention on whether the current price still leaves room for further value to be realised. Recent positive sentiment around analyst upgrades and the approval of a new pilot...
The latest developments in a long-running takeover saga helped lift Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) stock impressively as the week flew by. According to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence , the company's shares were riding nearly 11% higher week to date as of Friday before market open. The other player in that drama is peer housing construction company Dream Finders Homes (NYSE: DFH) , which...
The latest developments in a long-running takeover saga helped lift Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) stock impressively as the week flew by. According to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence , the company's shares were riding nearly 11% higher week to date as of Friday before market open. The other player in that drama is peer housing construction company Dream Finders Homes (NYSE: DFH) , which has been trying to get Bezer to agree to a deal since the beginning of this year. On Wednesday, it made its fourth offer public, with a bid of $32 per share for Beazer. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Tatiana Dyuvbanova/iStock via Getty Images Spring selling season was a dud. But mortgage rates are not high; inflation is high. Sales of existing single-family homes that closed in June fell by 2.4% from May, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 3.73 million sales, in the rock-bottom range that sales have been stuck in for four years, according to data from the National Association of Realtor...
Tatiana Dyuvbanova/iStock via Getty Images Spring selling season was a dud. But mortgage rates are not high; inflation is high. Sales of existing single-family homes that closed in June fell by 2.4% from May, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 3.73 million sales, in the rock-bottom range that sales have been stuck in for four years, according to data from the National Association of Realtors yesetrday. Compared to June in prior years (historical data from YCharts): 2025: +3.3% (year-over-year) 2024: +5.1% 2023: +1.4% 2022: -18.6% 2021: -28.8% 2019: -21.5% 2015: -21.8% 2009: +1.9% (Housing Bust) 1996: -1.1% Supply of single-family homes rose to 4.6 months in June, the highest since 2016. Supply is a function of inventory and sales – how much inventory there is in relationship to demand. Sales have hobbled along rock-bottom, while inventories have been rising (historical data from YCharts). Sales of condos and co-ops fell by 2.7% seasonally adjusted in June from May, and by 2.7% year-over-year, to an annual rate of 360,000, a record low, shared also by May 2020 and May 2025, all of them the same record low in the data that go back only to late 2011. The seasonally adjusted annual rate compared to June in prior years: 2025: -2.7% (year-over-year) 2021: -50.7% 2019: -36.8% 2012: -25.0% (first June in the data series) Supply of condos rose to 6.4 months, along with May, June, and September last year, the highest since 2012. Sales by region of existing homes of all types On a month-to-month basis, seasonally adjusted, sales of existing homes (single-family, condos, and co-ops combined) in June fell in the South (-3.6%), the Midwest (-3.0%), and the West (-1.3%), and rose in the Northeast (+2.1%). Compared to the same month in 2019, sales in June were down: in the West (-33%), Northeast (-29%), Midwest (-21%), and South (-17%). A map of the four regions is below the article at the top of the comments. In the South, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales fell 3...
Hertz Global and Kinross Gold both formed death cross patterns amid weak fundamentals, rising short interest, and deteriorating sentiment, signaling further downside risk for the two stocks.
Hertz Global and Kinross Gold both formed death cross patterns amid weak fundamentals, rising short interest, and deteriorating sentiment, signaling further downside risk for the two stocks.
If you've been hearing rumors that Social Security is on the verge of bankruptcy, here's some good news: The program is not at risk of going broke. Social Security actually can't go broke because it's funded with payroll taxes. But in the coming years, that revenue stream is expected to shrink as older workers retire. And thanks to declining birth rates, the number of replacement workers entering ...
If you've been hearing rumors that Social Security is on the verge of bankruptcy, here's some good news: The program is not at risk of going broke. Social Security actually can't go broke because it's funded with payroll taxes. But in the coming years, that revenue stream is expected to shrink as older workers retire. And thanks to declining birth rates, the number of replacement workers entering the labor force won't suffice in allowing Social Security to keep up with its financial obligations. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading