Jeremy Siegel thinks stocks may experience more turbulence ahead, despite the major averages posting sharp gains on Wednesday. "I don't think the short term looks all that favorable to me," Siegel, professor emeritus at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, said during a CNBC " Squawk Box " interview Thursday. Stocks soared on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-we...
Jeremy Siegel thinks stocks may experience more turbulence ahead, despite the major averages posting sharp gains on Wednesday. "I don't think the short term looks all that favorable to me," Siegel, professor emeritus at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, said during a CNBC " Squawk Box " interview Thursday. Stocks soared on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, easing fears after President Donald Trump would increase the bombing of Iran if the Strait of Hormuz wasn't reopened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best day in a year, surging 2.9%. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite soared 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively. U.S. crude prices had their biggest one-day decline since 2020. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 over the past five days "What you got yesterday was the relief rally that that worst case scenario is off the table," said Siegel. But with crude still above $90 per barrel, the Federal Reserve remains more likely to raise its overnight rate at some point than to lower it, he added. "I'm looking at the money supply, and I see it expanding, and I'm looking at commodity prices, and I see that expanding fiscal policy, defense spending. I don't see how the Fed can, in fact, ease at this point," Siegel said. "That's going to be a challenge for the bonds and the equity market. " Investors came into 2026 expecting at least one rate cut from the Fed. But the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate using 30-day fed funds futures prices, now shows traders are not pricing in any rate reductions by the end of 2026. "Unless we get a much better resolution, and I hope we do in the next two weeks … I really see a sideways market," said Siegel, who noted he is still bullish on stocks in the long term.
(RTTNews) - The Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose by more than expected in the week ended April 4th.
(RTTNews) - The Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose by more than expected in the week ended April 4th.
Joe_Potato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Phillips 66 ( PSX ) has been a strong winner since I last gave it a Buy rating in early January , as it has appreciated by a total of 26.85% since. With the conflict in the Middle East hitting pause, PSX is certainly going to rerate as crude is set to decline from its recent highs. With that in mind, let’s dive into the company’s recent dyn...
Joe_Potato/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Phillips 66 ( PSX ) has been a strong winner since I last gave it a Buy rating in early January , as it has appreciated by a total of 26.85% since. With the conflict in the Middle East hitting pause, PSX is certainly going to rerate as crude is set to decline from its recent highs. With that in mind, let’s dive into the company’s recent dynamics. Current Dynamics 2026 has been started by the AdvantEdge transformation program , which is a multi-year initiative designed to boost shareholder value through cost reduction and capital discipline. By the end of 2025, PSX had already established a strong base of record utilization rates and progress toward its target of $14B mid-cycle in EBITDA. Part of this was the agreement to purchase the Lindsey Oil Refinery and related assets in the UK, allowing for a greater scale and optionality for the European marketing and specialties segment. This goes back to the strong quarter posted by the firm, where PSX earned over $2.9B, while adjusted came out to $1B, or around $2.47 per share, which beat analyst expectations. This is a sharp contrast to even a couple of years ago, which now puts PSX in a strong financial posture, allowing it to increase the quarterly dividend to a massive $1.27 per share as the firm is returning at least 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders. Though for the incoming quarter, the firm is facing a $900MM financial headwind akin to Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) due to an accounting and timing issue, as Phillips 66 routinely carries a net short position in crude oil and other related products to hedge the price risk of physical inventory. As these prices rose drastically due to the situation in the Middle East, the value of these shorts fell drastically. These derivative losses are recognized immediately, whereas the corresponding increase in the market value of the underlying physical inventory cannot be directly reflected in book value until the products ...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different. At the same time, Israel’s action in Lebanon complicates the situation, and there is some dispute whether it was covered by the ceasefire. President Trump ha...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different. At the same time, Israel’s action in Lebanon complicates the situation, and there is some dispute whether it was covered by the ceasefire. President Trump has suggested that perhaps the US participates in the toll collection for the Strait of Hormuz. Equities have seen yesterday’s surge pared. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly firmer. The greenback has been largely confined to narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Most are a little firmer, but not the Australian and Canadian dollars and Japanese yen. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat. Drawing very little attention, the PBOC set the dollar’s fix at a new three-year low for the third consecutive session. Prices G10 • The euro poked a little above $1.1720 in North America yesterday, a modest extension of the rally seen in the Asia Pacific session in response to the ceasefire. After the high was recorded, the euro slipped back to around $1.1645, which was below the low seen in Europe. It recovered and settled near $1.1665. It has been confined to about a 15-tick band around yesterday’s settlement. • The dollar fell by about 0.55% against the yen yesterday. It traded below JPY158 for the first time in two weeks but recovered to settle at about JPY158.55, which was a little above the high seen during the European session. It has hardly traded below there today and is straddling the JPY159 area in late European morning turnover. Options for about $670 mln at JPY159 expire today. • Sterling dipped below $1.3180 at the start of the week, and at yesterday’s peak, it had risen by slightly more than three cents to its best level in a month. It briefly pushed above the upper Bollinger Band (~$1.3465 today) for the first time since late January. Ster...
Robert Way The formal launch of its embedded agentic agent, Cart Assistant for Instacart ( CART ), is an “underappreciated tailwind” says Raymond James, and offers an inflection point for the platform. “Grocery represents one of the most complex and under-penetrated ecommerce markets that we think will positively inflect due to rising agentic shopping experiences,” analyst Josh Beck writes in his ...
Robert Way The formal launch of its embedded agentic agent, Cart Assistant for Instacart ( CART ), is an “underappreciated tailwind” says Raymond James, and offers an inflection point for the platform. “Grocery represents one of the most complex and under-penetrated ecommerce markets that we think will positively inflect due to rising agentic shopping experiences,” analyst Josh Beck writes in his note to clients, upgrading Instacart ( CART ) to Outperform from Market Perform. Beck sees embedded agentic contributing to low-double-digit gross transaction value (GTV) upside and mid-single-digit GTV upside from third-party agentic. Based on these assumptions, Beck raises his order growth/GTV for Instacart ( CART ) for 2026 to $42.1B from an earlier estimate of $41.5B and to $47.7B from an earlier estimate of $45.9B for 2027. Additionally, to reflect confidence in Instacart’s ( CART ) competitive moat and agentic opportunity, Beck sets a price target of $50, representing 26% upside from Wednesday’s closing price. Instacart ( CART ) shares are up by more than 2% into Thursday’s open. More on Maplebear (Instacart) Instacart: The Growth Stalled For Now Maplebear Inc. (CART) Presents at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 Transcript Instacart: GTV Acceleration Makes This A Dip Worth Buying (Rating Upgrade) Instacart rips NYC delivery laws, will require 'fundamental' change to how app operates Instacart signals 11%-13% GTV growth guidance for Q1 2026 amid expanding enterprise and AI momentum
Israel claims attacks on densely populated residential areas that killed more than 200 people were aimed at Hezbollah members Middle East crisis – live updates What was the point of Israel’s surprise mass strikes on Lebanon that killed more than 200 people and drew widespread international condemnation? Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials have claimed the largest strike against H...
Israel claims attacks on densely populated residential areas that killed more than 200 people were aimed at Hezbollah members Middle East crisis – live updates What was the point of Israel’s surprise mass strikes on Lebanon that killed more than 200 people and drew widespread international condemnation? Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials have claimed the largest strike against Hezbollah during the month-long war against Iran was carefully aimed at members of the armed group, but the attacks appeared to be as much a piece of violent spectacle to benefit Netanyahu as militarily useful. Continue reading...
Gri-spb/iStock via Getty Images Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ) was trading lower as Compass Point cut the stock to Sell over concerns about lower margins. Shares were 1.31% down to $93.20 during Thursday pre-market trading. "USDC is more resilient this cycle; however, we believe supply is shifting into lower margin areas," said analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan, adding that they expect gross m...
Gri-spb/iStock via Getty Images Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ) was trading lower as Compass Point cut the stock to Sell over concerns about lower margins. Shares were 1.31% down to $93.20 during Thursday pre-market trading. "USDC is more resilient this cycle; however, we believe supply is shifting into lower margin areas," said analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan, adding that they expect gross margins to contract in the first half. "We believe CRCL's outperformance since 4Q results was driven by USDC's resilience and growing expectations for margin expansion," said the analysts. "CRCL trades at 40x optimistic 2027E EBITDA forecasts that assume USDC reaccelerating by 2Q26. As USDC supply remains stagnant and CRCL's 1H26 margins decline, we expect Consensus to reduce 2026-27E expectations, where our 2027E EBITDA is 20% below the Street," said the research note. The price target was cut by $2 to $77. "We model 1Q EBITDA declining 19% Q/Q while we model 1H26 off-platform supply declining 10% vs 4Q25. Until crypto markets materially recover, we expect minimal EBITDA growth for CRCL," said the note. Compass Point's rating contradicts the Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha authors rating of Buy on the stock. More on Circle Internet Group, Inc. Circle: Buying The Clarity Act Confusion Circle Falls As Stablecoin Future Questioned Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) Presents at 6th Annual Digital Assets Symposium Transcript White House economists say stablecoin rewards won't harm bank lending
VladimirFLoyd/iStock via Getty Images Performance assessment My recent 'Sell' views on Ares Capital ( ARCC ) have worked out well : Performance since HA's Last Article on ARCC (Seeking Alpha, HA's Last Article on ARCC) Elevator pitch I'm becoming less bearish now on ARCC, although I still see challenges: Strong deal flow bodes well for future NII Ares Capital's portfolio is prone to AI disruption ...
VladimirFLoyd/iStock via Getty Images Performance assessment My recent 'Sell' views on Ares Capital ( ARCC ) have worked out well : Performance since HA's Last Article on ARCC (Seeking Alpha, HA's Last Article on ARCC) Elevator pitch I'm becoming less bearish now on ARCC, although I still see challenges: Strong deal flow bodes well for future NII Ares Capital's portfolio is prone to AI disruption via its software exposure ARCC still looks relatively richly valued vs. BDC comps ARCC is at monthly support, but there are no strong buyers yet Strong deal flow bodes well for future NII Fundings and commitments (1 step before funding) have been increasing sharply over the last couple of quarters: Gross fundings (USD mn) (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Gross commitments (USD mn) (Company Filings, HA Analysis) And it is encouraging to see that the dollar value increase in commitments is not concentrated. In fact, it is comprised of a very diversified pool of 114 separate bets: Number of gross commitments (Company Filings, HA Analysis) This higher deal flow is not only due to sector-wide tailwinds, but also Ares Capital's large scale (it is the largest BDC with the top holding weight in the Vaneck BDC Income ETF ( BIZD )) and the resulting breadth and expertise depth that follows from that: While the broader tailwinds of increasing market activity levels helped drive higher originations to new borrowers in the second half of the year, much of this growth also came from the continued expansion of our specialized industry verticals... In 2025, our investment team reviewed nearly $1 trillion of potential investments, representing a 24% increase in the number of opportunities we reviewed relative to the prior year. - CEO Kort Schnabel in the Q4 FY25 earnings call These new investment commitments will eventually add to the investment portfolio from which net investment income [NII] can be generated. Hence, I expect an uptick from the currently stagnant levels of ~$350-370M: Net in...
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) stock has risen 225.2% over the past year, climbing from less than $18 to a 52-week high of $59.17. If you watched that move from the sidelines, you might be wondering if there’s anything left or did you miss it? Valuation, forward catalysts, and downside risk each present challenges at the current ... Intel Stock Is Up 225% in a Year but Wall Street Still Isn’t Buying It
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) stock has risen 225.2% over the past year, climbing from less than $18 to a 52-week high of $59.17. If you watched that move from the sidelines, you might be wondering if there’s anything left or did you miss it? Valuation, forward catalysts, and downside risk each present challenges at the current ... Intel Stock Is Up 225% in a Year but Wall Street Still Isn’t Buying It
Vertical Data to Support GPU Cluster Deployment and Arrange Financing Through GPUfinancing.com for AlphaTON's AI Infrastructure Expansion LAS VEGAS, NV / ACCESS Newswire / April 9, 2026 / Vertical Data Inc. (OTCQB:VDTA) ("Vertical Data"), operator ...
Vertical Data to Support GPU Cluster Deployment and Arrange Financing Through GPUfinancing.com for AlphaTON's AI Infrastructure Expansion LAS VEGAS, NV / ACCESS Newswire / April 9, 2026 / Vertical Data Inc. (OTCQB:VDTA) ("Vertical Data"), operator ...
Marc Faber Vs Brent Johnson On What's After Iran War: Utopia Or Crash As the dust begins to settle from the latest escalation in the Iran conflict, markets are left to grapple with a more complicated question: what comes next? Is this the beginning of a reset toward stability, another leg up in markets, and lower inflation -or- are the early stages of a broader economic unraveling tied to supply s...
Marc Faber Vs Brent Johnson On What's After Iran War: Utopia Or Crash As the dust begins to settle from the latest escalation in the Iran conflict, markets are left to grapple with a more complicated question: what comes next? Is this the beginning of a reset toward stability, another leg up in markets, and lower inflation -or- are the early stages of a broader economic unraveling tied to supply shocks, currency stress, and geopolitical fragmentation? Tonight at 7pm ET, longtime market commentator Marc “Dr. Doom” Faber squares off against Brent Johnson, with Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money moderating. Faber is an OG dollar bear while Johnson is critical of the “US Empire is doomed to fail” crowd. Remember when KSA was going to pivot from the west to the BRICS…? https://t.co/N34E8RiY4S — Santiago Capital (@SantiagoAuFund) March 28, 2026 Nonetheless Johnson has warned, in a recent post on his research blog, that “rationing hits next. And the downstream effects... energy prices, manufacturing inputs, food prices...follow on a timeline that stretches months, not days. ” He says consequences are largely baked in, as most ships take 10 to 45 days to reach their destination and are just leaving now. “What’s actually happening right now is slower, quieter, and more consequential than anything in the financial press.” Faber has consistently bashed paper money, in all its forms, as destined to fall to zero against the price of gold: pic.twitter.com/nbFE21ssKn — ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) April 8, 2026 Where he and Johnson might agree is that it is unlikely for the Euro or the Japanese Yen to unseat the dollar. But could the Chinese Yuan or a basket currency put forth by BRICS? Especially if backed by gold (or advertised as such), might other countries begin making the switch? Iran has long known the risks of dealing in U.S. dollar-denominated assets that may be frozen unilaterally. However, the country has also now learned the consequences of challenging U.S. (or p...
Amazon.com CEO Andy Jassy dismissed fears of an artificial intelligence bubble and told investors they shouldn’t expect any slowdown in the firm’s AI investments. Amazon has projected capital expenditure of around $200 billion this year, largely on AI data centers. Notably, Jassy says Amazon’s in-house chip business is already on track to generate more than $20 billion in annual revenue.
Amazon.com CEO Andy Jassy dismissed fears of an artificial intelligence bubble and told investors they shouldn’t expect any slowdown in the firm’s AI investments. Amazon has projected capital expenditure of around $200 billion this year, largely on AI data centers. Notably, Jassy says Amazon’s in-house chip business is already on track to generate more than $20 billion in annual revenue.