Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Every recent article on Seeking Alpha about Capricor ( CAPR ) is a Buy or a Hold - except that one Sell article from December. So I checked out the article, and I found the argument was not lazy. It raised the right issues that are needed to assess a late-stage biotech heading into an FDA decision. Did Hope-3 actually support deramiocel in Duchenne m...
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Every recent article on Seeking Alpha about Capricor ( CAPR ) is a Buy or a Hold - except that one Sell article from December. So I checked out the article, and I found the argument was not lazy. It raised the right issues that are needed to assess a late-stage biotech heading into an FDA decision. Did Hope-3 actually support deramiocel in Duchenne muscular dystrophy? Given the earlier CRL, this was a pertinent question and needed to be addressed by the bulls. That CRL was not a trivial one—the FDA was concerned about the prior Hope-2 and OLE data and whether they adequately proved deramiocel in DMD. So when Hope-3 read out positively, it was necessary to check whether it addressed the FDA’s concerns. This article did that. Later disclosures from the company have weakened the strongest part of the Sell thesis. Several risks still exist, and new ones have appeared. However, the trial risks have mostly disappeared, and what really remains are commercial disputes with NS Pharma/Nippon Shinyaku and a few others. Overall, however, I see this now as a speculative Buy. The Sell Thesis: Fair, But Dated The author Sage Advisor’s key argument was that the Hope-3 presentation was too complicated. Here are the key arguments: Author Taken together, these were serious arguments and clearly weakened the buy thesis. Plus, it also fit the history. Capricor had framed Hope-2 data in a certain way—and the FDA had not accepted that framing. The FDA has historically been flexible with DMD and similar diseases. However, first, the flexibility wanes as more drugs get approved, and two, flexibility does not mean the agency stops caring about prespecified endpoints, Type I error control, missing data, or whether the clinical benefit is clearly shown. Later HOPE-3 Disclosures Weaken The Primary Endpoint Objection 7 days after that sell article, Capricor presented a discussion of the trial data that gave a cleaner answer to the PUL 2.0 primary e...
Zhao Yongjing Eleven days after one of the deadliest coal mine disasters on the Chinese mainland in more than 10 years, the top Communist Party official in the county where the blast occurred has been placed under investigation. Zhao Yongjin, chief of the Communist Party committee of Qinyuan county in Shanxi province, is suspected of “serious violations of discipline and law,” a standard official ...
Zhao Yongjing Eleven days after one of the deadliest coal mine disasters on the Chinese mainland in more than 10 years, the top Communist Party official in the county where the blast occurred has been placed under investigation. Zhao Yongjin, chief of the Communist Party committee of Qinyuan county in Shanxi province, is suspected of “serious violations of discipline and law,” a standard official euphemism for corruption, Shanxi’s anti-graft watchdog announced late Tuesday.
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Being Hesitant Has Its Upsides Too Staying cautious and not just throwing money at a hyped up stock has its upsides as well. Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) is a perfect example of this. I rated the stock a Hold back in January this year and shares are up 116% since then. I remember there were plenty of people who called this a Strong Buy back then as we...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Being Hesitant Has Its Upsides Too Staying cautious and not just throwing money at a hyped up stock has its upsides as well. Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) is a perfect example of this. I rated the stock a Hold back in January this year and shares are up 116% since then. I remember there were plenty of people who called this a Strong Buy back then as well. Their returns are likely greater. But bear in mind the market environment then. The US had just performed an operation in Venezuela and people were looking at energy markets like they were going to go parabolic, which they eventually did, but for other reasons . It was a difficult market environment to invest in, and I think staying neutral and not necessarily throwing money on stocks was the way to go. Still captured a 116% upside, which is more than what most people can say with their investments. Last Coverage (Seeking Alpha) What has changed then to cause me to go from rating AMD a Hold to a Strong Buy? Some people are arguing the top is in for AI stocks and tech valuations. To that I say, look at demand and how we are facing a shortage of compute power. Companies like AMD are vital to fixing this issue. A quote I’d really like to emphasize here is this: “A rising tide lifts all boats.” You could go on and on about how NVIDIA ( NVDA ) might be the better option compared to AMD, or vice versa. The reality is that nearly all companies involved in any part of the supply chain of AI will see upside. Demand cascades. The switch for me really was about the lack of compute power and how demand has completely overrun current production capacities. An AI Phase Shift: From Training To Inference AI Shift (Cloudflare) Cloudflare ( NET ) actually lays out this part very well. We are entering the inference phase of the AI revolution. This is where we start to see actual efficiency numbers and improvements for companies using these products and software to automate tasks. It’s lik...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Being Hesitant Has Its Upsides Too Staying cautious and not just throwing money at a hyped up stock has its upsides as well. Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) is a perfect example of this. I rated the stock a Hold back in January this year and shares are up 116% since then. I remember there were plenty of people who called this a Strong Buy back then as we...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Being Hesitant Has Its Upsides Too Staying cautious and not just throwing money at a hyped up stock has its upsides as well. Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) is a perfect example of this. I rated the stock a Hold back in January this year and shares are up 116% since then. I remember there were plenty of people who called this a Strong Buy back then as well. Their returns are likely greater. But bear in mind the market environment then. The US had just performed an operation in Venezuela and people were looking at energy markets like they were going to go parabolic, which they eventually did, but for other reasons . It was a difficult market environment to invest in, and I think staying neutral and not necessarily throwing money on stocks was the way to go. Still captured a 116% upside, which is more than what most people can say with their investments. Last Coverage (Seeking Alpha) What has changed then to cause me to go from rating AMD a Hold to a Strong Buy? Some people are arguing the top is in for AI stocks and tech valuations. To that I say, look at demand and how we are facing a shortage of compute power. Companies like AMD are vital to fixing this issue. A quote I’d really like to emphasize here is this: “A rising tide lifts all boats.” You could go on and on about how NVIDIA ( NVDA ) might be the better option compared to AMD, or vice versa. The reality is that nearly all companies involved in any part of the supply chain of AI will see upside. Demand cascades. The switch for me really was about the lack of compute power and how demand has completely overrun current production capacities. An AI Phase Shift: From Training To Inference AI Shift (Cloudflare) Cloudflare ( NET ) actually lays out this part very well. We are entering the inference phase of the AI revolution. This is where we start to see actual efficiency numbers and improvements for companies using these products and software to automate tasks. It’s lik...