The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has slashed its global growth outlook, warning that the economic damage from the U.S.-Iran war could dramatically worsen unless a durable peace settlement is reached quickly. In its June Economic Outlook, the OECD said global growth is now expected to slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, before recovering to 3.1% in 2027 — should the cur...
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has slashed its global growth outlook, warning that the economic damage from the U.S.-Iran war could dramatically worsen unless a durable peace settlement is reached quickly. In its June Economic Outlook, the OECD said global growth is now expected to slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, before recovering to 3.1% in 2027 — should the current energy price shock start easing by the middle of this year. But that's assuming a time-limited disruption scenario in which a peace agreement is reached and current disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are swiftly resolved, said Stefano Scarpetta, the OECD's chief economist. A worse scenario, in which the disruptions to shipping and energy infrastructure continue well into 2027, would see global growth fall sharply to just 2.1% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027. That would tip some economies into, or close to, recession, Scarpetta warned. The OECD's study explores how the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, coupled with energy infrastructure damage throughout the Gulf, has sent energy prices soaring, and pushed up the costs of fertilizers and other key industrial inputs. It noted how the consequences of the war between the U.S. and its allies and Iran are likely to be felt for some time, even after any resolution is found. Scarpetta said that a durable settlement to the current conflict would not only bring relief to the region but also "lay the groundwork for a resolution to the disruptions it has caused to the global economy." "The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," he said in the report. In the worse-case scenario, global inflation is expected to rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 1.3 percentage points in 2027. "Unemployment would rise and investment — including in energy-intensive AI — would weaken significantly, with increasing risks of financial market repricing… with upside pressures from elevated commodity prices partially offs...
When Berkshire Hathaway 's (NYSE: BRKA) (NYSE: BRKB) 13F filing was released in May, it provided insight into the company's direction following the retirement of its longtime leader, Warren Buffett, at the end of last year. When Berkshire's stock positions were released, a handful of moves came as a surprise. The company completely exited positions in Visa , Mastercard , UnitedHealth Group , and A...
When Berkshire Hathaway 's (NYSE: BRKA) (NYSE: BRKB) 13F filing was released in May, it provided insight into the company's direction following the retirement of its longtime leader, Warren Buffett, at the end of last year. When Berkshire's stock positions were released, a handful of moves came as a surprise. The company completely exited positions in Visa , Mastercard , UnitedHealth Group , and Amazon , but the real head-scratcher was the stocks Berkshire chose to add. Berkshire added over 39.8 million shares of Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) , worth over $3.28 billion (about 1% of its stock portfolio), a move that surprised many. Let's take a look at why. Continue reading
Maks_Lab/iStock via Getty Images PMI survey data indicate that global factory production growth accelerated to a near five-year high in May, with the war in the Middle East having induced a surge in demand for manufactured goods and inputs. However, this growth spurt is being fuelled by precautionary stock building, as companies seek to safeguard against supply shortages and prices hikes linked to...
Maks_Lab/iStock via Getty Images PMI survey data indicate that global factory production growth accelerated to a near five-year high in May, with the war in the Middle East having induced a surge in demand for manufactured goods and inputs. However, this growth spurt is being fuelled by precautionary stock building, as companies seek to safeguard against supply shortages and prices hikes linked to the conflict. The forward purchasing by definition points to weaker growth of purchasing and production in the coming months. Supply shortages, which have been more widely reported than at any time since 2022 in recent months, have already been reported as constraining output to a degree not witnessed since 2022. These constraints threaten to not only subdue growth but could also sustain further price pressures. Factory production growth at its fastest for nearly five years The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, sponsored by J.P. Morgan and compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, recorded the sharpest rise in worldwide factory production since July 2021 in May. The latest rise built on a similarly strong increase in April. US output growth hit the highest for just over four years in May, and the past two months have seen among the largest gains in production in Japan since the start of 2018. The solid expansion in mainland China was among the strongest for two years. The upturn in the eurozone was meanwhile modest. Albeit in both cases, rates of growth lost a little momentum in May. The rest of Asia saw sustained strong output growth in May. Stock building boosts growth While the data point to encouraging resilience of the manufacturing economy as the war in the Middle East extended into its third month in May, growth in many cases has been buoyed by precautionary stock building as companies seek to buy goods ahead of supply shortages or price rises linked to the war. Analysis of comments provided by surveyed companies, explaining changes in ...
《非标玩家UnDefined》编者按✍️ 这期来自20VC with Harry Stebbings的播客，逼迫大家面对AI商业化的现实。 做Claude的Anthropic，在半年内月收入增长N倍，曲线直接变成直线： 在今年1月的年化收入还是90亿美元；2月变成140亿，3月190亿，4月300亿，而到了5月，这个数字已经逼近450亿美元。 这里说的是按当月收入速度推算全年。即便如此，这样的增速...