North Korean leader Kim Jong-un personally received the country’s AFC Women’s Champions League winners in Pyongyang earlier this week, embracing the players and posing for photographs with them as they wept with joy and leapt in celebration. Naegohyang Women’s FC clinched Asia’s top club title with a 1-0 defeat of Tokyo Verdy Beleza of Japan in the final in Suwon on May 23, becoming the first Nort...
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un personally received the country’s AFC Women’s Champions League winners in Pyongyang earlier this week, embracing the players and posing for photographs with them as they wept with joy and leapt in celebration. Naegohyang Women’s FC clinched Asia’s top club title with a 1-0 defeat of Tokyo Verdy Beleza of Japan in the final in Suwon on May 23, becoming the first North Korean side to win the AFC Women’s Champions League. Kim congratulated the players on their...
winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images I'm retaining a 'Buy' rating for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( ZTO ) (2057.HK). ZTO should be able to command a richer earnings multiple in time to come, taking into consideration its promising profitability outlook. Pricing competition has eased, while margin-enhancing AI measures are implemented. My prior March 19, 2026, article highlighted the company's...
winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images I'm retaining a 'Buy' rating for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ( ZTO ) (2057.HK). ZTO should be able to command a richer earnings multiple in time to come, taking into consideration its promising profitability outlook. Pricing competition has eased, while margin-enhancing AI measures are implemented. My prior March 19, 2026, article highlighted the company's above-expectations 4Q2025 results and enticing forward shareholder yield. Early-2Q26 Industry Data Signals Favorable Pricing Dynamics According to Chinese state media Xinhua's late-May report , the nation's 4M2026 "express deliveries accounted for 64.57 billion parcels, growing 5.1 percent." My calculations suggest that the Apr '26 piece count in China was 3.2% year-on-year higher at 16.8B units. During the same period, the market's aggregate revenues rose by an even better 6.3%. The "Average Selling Price (ASP)" for this sector was CNY7.65/parcel in the first month of 2Q2026. That's equivalent to a 3.0% YoY increase, reflecting the positive spread between volume and topline. I think the above-mentioned numbers are aligned with ZTO's management commentary and operational metrics. At its 1Q26 briefing last month, the firm shared that China's "anti-involution policies continue to deepen." It provided a tangible example of how "enforcement has been progressively tightened in certain provinces where implementation had previously lagged." Also, vicious margin-dilutive rivalry has appeared to become a thing of the past in the express delivery space. "Low price competition is gradually diminishing" with a shift towards "higher quality development based on operational efficiency" as per ZTO's call remarks. The group's own YoY ASP expansion accelerated from +2.9% in 4Q2025 to +8.2% for 1Q2026. Its earnings meeting attributed this to a superior "product mix with focused efforts on higher-value retail parcels." I see ZTO's pricing power strengthening on the back of its widening leade...
Tendo23/iStock via Getty Images Markets appear remarkably resilient in the face of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Despite a sharp rise in oil prices and a longer-than-expected duration, equity markets remain near highs and credit spreads have retraced much of their widening. Expectations for U.S. rate cuts later this year have shifted, with markets now anticipating a more extended period of pol...
Tendo23/iStock via Getty Images Markets appear remarkably resilient in the face of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Despite a sharp rise in oil prices and a longer-than-expected duration, equity markets remain near highs and credit spreads have retraced much of their widening. Expectations for U.S. rate cuts later this year have shifted, with markets now anticipating a more extended period of policy restraint. This may look like complacency, but instead it reflects how markets process and price risk and forms the basis of how we assess this crisis and its potential outcomes over the coming months. Markets don’t wait for resolution At the outset of the conflict, it was natural to look for a defined end point — a clear resolution. But markets do not wait for such a precise outcome. Instead, they continually reassess the evolving and likely path of events in real time. What matters to markets is not just the size of the shock but its persistence and direction. A short-lived disruption, even if severe, can often be absorbed with limited long-term impact, as long as investors believe conditions are improving. As the chart below illustrates, recent market disruptions — from the COVID pandemic to the Trump tariffs of April 2025 — have seen the S&P 500 fall before quickly resuming its upward trajectory. By contrast, a shock that endures, with no clear path to resolution, can have more significant implications for growth, inflation and asset prices. Source: Bloomberg, as of May 18, 2026. Markets have so far responded primarily to the price effects of the conflict. Due to inherent lags in the system — oil that is now being consumed in many regions was shipped before the conflict escalated — the impact on physical supply has yet to emerge. A longer conflict will see a shift from price-driven effects to tangible constraints of supply, particularly in oil-importing regions. In that scenario, the economic impact would be much more pronounced. For example, airlines globally have ...
Alex Wong/Getty Images News The Carlyle Group Inc. ( CG ) trades at 11x forward distributable earnings, the lowest multiple among the large alternative asset managers. The company has faced an uphill battle over the past nine months, and it's reflected in the stock price. Shares are down 30%, and the stock is trading near its 52-week low of $45.43. For some investors, this may seem like a great op...
Alex Wong/Getty Images News The Carlyle Group Inc. ( CG ) trades at 11x forward distributable earnings, the lowest multiple among the large alternative asset managers. The company has faced an uphill battle over the past nine months, and it's reflected in the stock price. Shares are down 30%, and the stock is trading near its 52-week low of $45.43. For some investors, this may seem like a great opportunity to buy the dip, but we believe the discount to peers is justified. Distributable earnings are falling; every revision over the past 90 days has been negative, and management has not yet delivered on planned improvements. In our view, the headline multiple does not signal a bargain. Despite running a fundamentally sound operation, Carlyle has not managed to earn its way out of this latest slump. Distributable earnings are down 22% YoY, and near-term estimates are being cut. The reward for waiting is a 3.1% dividend and an option on a credible 2028 target. The market is pricing in this dip in earnings power. Simply put, dips do not always offer great entry points. Data by YCharts The Underlying Business Carlyle manages over $475 billion worth of assets and generates revenue from three main segments. Global Credit is the biggest at $209 billion, Global Private Equity holds $159 billion, and Carlyle AlpInvest , the secondaries and "fund-of-funds" segment, manages $107 billion. The firm realized the majority of its income from two sources: management fees on AUM (fee-earning AUM) which produces steady income, and performance revenue from selling investments, which is inconsistent, but can yield impressive returns. The performance revenue is what often makes or breaks any given quarter. Since taking over as CEO in 2023, Harvey Schwartz has focused on rebuilding Carlyle's fee engine and fundraising machine. Diverging Analysis, Fundamental or Technical? Carlyle is one of those stocks where the rating systems point in opposite directions. Seeking Alpha’s Wall St. Ratings a...