India’s efforts to shield consumers from a historic oil shock are reverberating through the refining sector, squeezing margins, stretching balance sheets and forcing companies into costly workarounds. Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began at the end of February, refiners in the world’s third-largest crude importer have had to contend with the effects of a sharp rise in prices, freight and ins...
India’s efforts to shield consumers from a historic oil shock are reverberating through the refining sector, squeezing margins, stretching balance sheets and forcing companies into costly workarounds. Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began at the end of February, refiners in the world’s third-largest crude importer have had to contend with the effects of a sharp rise in prices, freight and insurance costs, all compounded by a weaker rupee. They have also had to scramble to find alternatives to Middle East cargoes. The government, with an eye on price-sensitive voters, has instead prioritized fuel availability and accessibility. It has kept pump prices frozen through the war — limiting state processors’ ability to pass on costs — while imposing crippling taxes to curb exports. Refiners have also been pushed to maintain run rates and to crank up production of low-margin liquefied petroleum gas, to help resolve an acute shortage of the cooking fuel. The result, refiners say, is unprecedented strain. “We have never seen such a situation earlier,” Srinivas Tuttagunta, chief operating officer of private behemoth Reliance Industries Ltd. , told analysts late on Friday. Freight rates have jumped 10–15 times, crude premiums have surged to $20–$30 a barrel from just a few dollars pre-conflict, and war-risk insurance has ballooned from thousands to near million dollars, he added. India’s integrated processors need crude prices around $80–$85 a barrel to break even, according to analysts at Macquarie — a level the market has far exceeded in recent weeks. Brent touched $108 a barrel Monday as efforts to resume peace talks over the Iran war stalled, adding to pressure on the government to consider raising prices for the first time in four years. Oil refining and retailing companies are currently losing revenue worth about 100 rupees ($1.1) per liter on diesel and 20 rupees on gasoline, according to the oil ministry. Based on India’s crude import cost and low fixed margins, ga...