RudyBalasko/iStock via Getty Images Thesis We recently did an extensive piece on the Two Harbors Investment Corp. ( TWO ) merger with CrossCountry Mortgage (to be referred to as 'CCM'), where we went through the merger timeline and the background to the transaction. In that article we focused on the impact on the preferred shares, and identified the Series C ( TWO.PR.C ) as the best way to take ad...
RudyBalasko/iStock via Getty Images Thesis We recently did an extensive piece on the Two Harbors Investment Corp. ( TWO ) merger with CrossCountry Mortgage (to be referred to as 'CCM'), where we went through the merger timeline and the background to the transaction. In that article we focused on the impact on the preferred shares, and identified the Series C ( TWO.PR.C ) as the best way to take advantage of the corporate action. We got a few questions regarding the impact on the bonds from TWO; hence, we are writing this piece for the holders of the Two Harbors Investment Corp. CAL 30 ( TWOD ). Recap of what is happening CrossCountry Mortgage (to be referred to as 'CCM') is a private mortgage lender out of Ohio who has agreed to purchase TWO: Two Harbors Investment (TWO) on Thursday announced a new definitive merger agreement with CrossCountry Mortgage, terminating its previously announced agreement with UWM Holdings ( UWMC ). Last week, Two said it received an unsolicited proposal for $10.70 per share in cash. The new proposal provides for the payment of the $25.4M termination fee that would be required under the UWMC agreement. Earlier this week, Two board's ad hoc committee said that CrossCountry Mortgage's unsolicited bid constitutes a "superior" proposal to the merger agreement it had previously reached with UWM Holdings. For the CCM merger to be complete, the TWO shareholders need to approve it (in the next month it will happen), and then regulatory approvals need to be obtained. That puts the completion date somewhere in the second half of 2026; thus, September 30, 2026, is a good guess as of now. This is important to remember because, from a legal standpoint, the TWOD bonds are not affected until the actual legal date when the merger becomes official. What does the TWOD prospectus say Firstly a quick recap of the bond characteristics: Outstanding notional: $100 mm. Coupon: 9.375%. Par value: $25/share. Call date: 5/15/2027. Maturity date: 8/15/2030. Distribu...
Guven Ozdemir/iStock via Getty Images Following the Q1 trading update, we are back to comment on the London Stock Exchange Group plc ( LDNXF ) ( LSEGY ). This was a solid call. Last year, we moved the company to a neutral rating in an analysis titled " No Room For Error ." Then we upgraded the company thanks to solid execution, no fears of AI threats, and an acceleration in its subscription-led se...
Guven Ozdemir/iStock via Getty Images Following the Q1 trading update, we are back to comment on the London Stock Exchange Group plc ( LDNXF ) ( LSEGY ). This was a solid call. Last year, we moved the company to a neutral rating in an analysis titled " No Room For Error ." Then we upgraded the company thanks to solid execution, no fears of AI threats, and an acceleration in its subscription-led segments. Given a supportive shareholder return (from dividend payments and buybacks) and downside protection from LSEG upside in a volatile market, we reiterated our buy rating multiple times. We are now at a total return of more than 18% over a relatively short time frame (Fig. 1; last updated in March 2026, with the FY 2025 results comment). Mare Ev. Lab Past Rating Update Fig 1 Q1 Trading Update and Our Positive Stance As usual, the London Stock Exchange Group released only a trading update. So, there is information on segment performance and the yearly outlook. At first glance, the update may appear light, but a closer read reveals several underlying elements that reinforce our investment thesis. Starting with top-line sales, the company recorded its highest Q1, up 9.8%. This was supported by the Risk Intelligence and Markets division, both up double digits. LSEG reported positive growth in its subscription segment, up 6.3%. Q1 sales beat consensus by +2.6%. Aside from reiterating guidance, the company also completed £1.1 billion of its share buyback program. It is well on track for the £3 billion share repurchases, with the schedule ending in February 2027. LSEG Q1 sales results in a Snap Fig 2 Why are we positive? Starting with the guidance, London Stock Exchange Group has guided to achieve the upper half of its guidance (Fig. 3). So, sales are estimated at 6.5-7.5% on a constant-FX basis in 2026, with the EBITDA margin increase skewed towards 100 basis points. LSEG 2026 guidance Fig 3 Even accounting for the share price recovery over the past two months, we anticipate...
Manchester City are finishing the season strongly - having looked at one stage as if the Premier League title may elude them. Here's how Pep Guardiola went through many systems to find his best team.
Manchester City are finishing the season strongly - having looked at one stage as if the Premier League title may elude them. Here's how Pep Guardiola went through many systems to find his best team.
Gary Yeowell/DigitalVision via Getty Images By Rich Hill, Senior Managing Director - Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy | JD Stehwien, Senior Analyst - Research | Art Jones, Senior Director, Global Real Estate Research and Strategy | Thomas McGing, Sr. Analyst - Research Introduction The so-called “wall of maturities” is a perennial source of investor anxiety: will refinancing risk c...
Gary Yeowell/DigitalVision via Getty Images By Rich Hill, Senior Managing Director - Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy | JD Stehwien, Senior Analyst - Research | Art Jones, Senior Director, Global Real Estate Research and Strategy | Thomas McGing, Sr. Analyst - Research Introduction The so-called “wall of maturities” is a perennial source of investor anxiety: will refinancing risk create a wave of defaults? Given nearly $900bn of loans maturing in 2026 and more than $2tn coming due over the next three years, that concern is understandable. However, the experience of recent maturities suggests outcomes have been far less dire than feared and offers a useful roadmap for what lies ahead. Loans maturing in 2023 ($728bn), 2024 ($929bn), and 2025 ($957bn) did not lead to a collapse in commercial real estate (CRE) debt like many media headlines suggested (“U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis” - Harvard Business Review; July 2024). While it is often assumed that lenders are merely “extending & pretending” loans through modifications - effectively kicking the can down the road - data from the CMBS conduit market tells a more nuanced story. A meaningful share of loans have paid off at or before maturity. Specifically, 73% of CMBS conduit loans originally scheduled to mature in 2025 paid off on time versus the 73% payoff rate for 2024 maturities and 81% observed in 2023. This is only slightly below the historical average payoff rate since 2012 of 78%. Against this backdrop, we introduce a new framework to assess potential capital gaps and surpluses. For each property type, we construct a “box-and-whisker” analysis to visualize the distribution of potential outcomes across nearly 400 markets by quartile, highlighting dispersion, skewness, and outliers in a compact format. This analysis is intended as a theoretical, top-down tool to identify where risks may be concentrated, rather than a substitute for property or loan level underwriting, which i...
Iran's Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad on Friday, as the White House confirmed Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel there Saturday to try to "move the ball forward towards a deal." (Image credit: AFP via Getty Images)
Iran's Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad on Friday, as the White House confirmed Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel there Saturday to try to "move the ball forward towards a deal." (Image credit: AFP via Getty Images)