Nobody Knows What Will Happen Next By Michael Every and Bas van Geffen of Rabobank Ceasefire Yesterday, the US and Iran threatened to, respectively, “destroy Iranian civilisation” with “new tools” and other countries in the Gulf with old ones. Ahead of the 8PM deadline that Trump had set for “Bridge and Power Plant Day,” US and Israeli forces reportedly already destroyed some bridges and other inf...
Nobody Knows What Will Happen Next By Michael Every and Bas van Geffen of Rabobank Ceasefire Yesterday, the US and Iran threatened to, respectively, “destroy Iranian civilisation” with “new tools” and other countries in the Gulf with old ones. Ahead of the 8PM deadline that Trump had set for “Bridge and Power Plant Day,” US and Israeli forces reportedly already destroyed some bridges and other infrastructure. Washington and Tehran struck a last-minute, two-week ceasefire – provided that the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened. Notably, this was after China leaned on Iran to listen to interlocutor Pakistan, according to the New York Times. That key intervention underlines the global nature of this war beyond energy and related exports, and how it is resolved. Markets are trading this as a TACO Tuesday. Brent futures are down 14% at the time of writing, Asian equity markets rallied, and futures pricing suggests the same will happen when European and American markets open. And bets of near-term rate hikes evaporated as the truce ends days before major central banks next reconvene to recalibrate their policy stance. 10-year German Bund yields fell 18bp (!)on the open. Yet, this short-term truce is not a peace deal, and is anyone willing to sail through the Strait as long as the conflict isn’t fully resolved? So, today’s reprieve will be followed by at least two weeks of extended uncertainty – and possibly longer, if both sides agree to extend the negotiations. Moreover, there is a world of difference between Iran having blinked under US military threats, which would be a huge win for Trump and the US, and the US having blinked in the face of Iranian resistance and oil prices, which would be a massive 1956-style geostrategic defeat for Trump. In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire, both headlines and missiles kept flying. Iran hit Israel and a GCC energy site. The US said “an” Iranian 10-point plan is a “workable basis on which to negotiate” ( might we have an intrac...
Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern speak daily with leaders and decision makers from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. No other program better positions investors and executives for the trading day. (Source: Bloomberg)
Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern speak daily with leaders and decision makers from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. No other program better positions investors and executives for the trading day. (Source: Bloomberg)
jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images While it may not always get the media headlines of the big global banks, there is one regional player that has been on my watchlist for a few years as one of my best-performing buy ratings so far. KeyCorp ( KEY ), the parent behind KeyBank, is up around +114% since I gave it a strong buy in July 2023 and also up since my subsequent hold and buy rating...
jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images While it may not always get the media headlines of the big global banks, there is one regional player that has been on my watchlist for a few years as one of my best-performing buy ratings so far. KeyCorp ( KEY ), the parent behind KeyBank, is up around +114% since I gave it a strong buy in July 2023 and also up since my subsequent hold and buy ratings in 2024 and 2025. Some "key" points that I loved about KeyCorp were their expansion beyond their local roots, their investment-grade ratings, and a compelling dividend story. The bank, which actually has roots going back to the 1800s, according to its Seeking Alpha profile , and has a consumer and commercial segment, was actually in major financial news a few weeks ago when Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia ( BNS ) is "seeking to increase its ownership in KeyCorp to as much as 19.99%, up from its current stake of 14.99%." Against the backdrop of that positive news, today's update is also a preview of this stock ahead of its upcoming Apr. 16th earnings results . Thesis Summary Based on my updated research, and ahead of its upcoming earnings call this month, I'm reiterating my prior buy rating on this stock. Although I realize the current macro environment is full of headwinds, and some banks have proven to have stronger historical performance than this one, its upside can be driven by loan growth and improving margins, along with a low balance sheet risk profile, a compelling dividend growth story, and an undervaluation opportunity coupled with future upside expected. Key - rating worksheet (author) The above rating worksheet shows how my 8 different rating categories across fundamental and technical analysis drove the average rating score. Keep reading to find out what I thought of each topic in detail. Macro & Sector Trends When it comes to the macroeconomic and sector environment, I gave this section a hold rating, and here is why. To help understand the type of banking nich...
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing the Wall Street consensus of 365,645. Here's what TSLA investors need to know before earnings on April 22.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing the Wall Street consensus of 365,645. Here's what TSLA investors need to know before earnings on April 22.
In early trading on Wednesday, shares of Carnival (CCL) topped the list of the day's best performing components of the S&P 500 index, trading up 14.5%. Year to date, Carnival has lost about 5.5% of its value. And the worst performing S&P 500 component thus far on the d
In early trading on Wednesday, shares of Carnival (CCL) topped the list of the day's best performing components of the S&P 500 index, trading up 14.5%. Year to date, Carnival has lost about 5.5% of its value. And the worst performing S&P 500 component thus far on the d
Caterpillar ( CAT ) declares $1.51/share quarterly dividend , in line with previous. Forward yield 0.79% Payable May 19; for shareholders of record April 20; ex-div April 20. See CAT Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth. More on Caterpillar Caterpillar: AI-Driven Power Demand And Strong Backlog Support Continued Upside Caterpillar: The Hidden AI Infrastructure Play Wall Street Is Fin...
Caterpillar ( CAT ) declares $1.51/share quarterly dividend , in line with previous. Forward yield 0.79% Payable May 19; for shareholders of record April 20; ex-div April 20. See CAT Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth. More on Caterpillar Caterpillar: AI-Driven Power Demand And Strong Backlog Support Continued Upside Caterpillar: The Hidden AI Infrastructure Play Wall Street Is Finally Pricing In And It's Not Too Late Caterpillar: Data Center Tailwinds Are Real, But Valuation Assumes Unrealistic Growth Atlas Energy signs framework agreement with CAT for power generation assets through 2029 Burry sparks AI spending debate, defends record as critics question timing
Steve Ballmer once told me that in China, 90% of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows licenses were stolen by local tech companies. He said Microsoft could do little about the loss of billions of dollars. It appears the same has happened to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) chips. However, Nvidia and allies are doing something about it. According ... Nvidia Chips Are Getting Stolen
Steve Ballmer once told me that in China, 90% of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows licenses were stolen by local tech companies. He said Microsoft could do little about the loss of billions of dollars. It appears the same has happened to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) chips. However, Nvidia and allies are doing something about it. According ... Nvidia Chips Are Getting Stolen
SEALSQ press release ( LAES ): Q1 revenue of approximately $4.1 million, represents a substantial increase of over 200% compared to its Q1 2025 revenue of $1.3 million. This acceleration reflects growing demand across SEALSQ's traditional product portfolios and a continued expansion of the Company's pipeline. SEALSQ reaffirms its previously communicated FY 2026 guidance, with revenue expected to g...
SEALSQ press release ( LAES ): Q1 revenue of approximately $4.1 million, represents a substantial increase of over 200% compared to its Q1 2025 revenue of $1.3 million. This acceleration reflects growing demand across SEALSQ's traditional product portfolios and a continued expansion of the Company's pipeline. SEALSQ reaffirms its previously communicated FY 2026 guidance, with revenue expected to grow between 50% and 100% year-over-year. Shares +6.6% . More on SEALSQ SEALSQ Corp (LAES) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Sealsq: The New Share Offering Will Strengthen The Balance Sheet Even More SEALSQ: A Hold Despite Post-Quantum Ambition SEALSQ GAAP EPS of -$0.24, revenue of $18.25M beats by $0.5M SEALSQ to acquire Miraex, expanding quantum technology capabilities
Most ETFs benchmarked to the Russell 1000 Growth Index just track it. Fidelity Enhanced Large Cap Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:FELG) tries to beat it, using a quantitative multifactor model to tilt toward companies with stronger fundamentals and more reasonable valuations than the raw index delivers. That distinction defines exactly what kind of investor this fund is ... FELG’s Quant Edge Beats the Russel...
Most ETFs benchmarked to the Russell 1000 Growth Index just track it. Fidelity Enhanced Large Cap Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:FELG) tries to beat it, using a quantitative multifactor model to tilt toward companies with stronger fundamentals and more reasonable valuations than the raw index delivers. That distinction defines exactly what kind of investor this fund is ... FELG’s Quant Edge Beats the Russell 1000 Growth Index, With a Catch
mtreasure/iStock via Getty Images Investment thesis Armanino Foods (OTC: AMNF ) sells pesto and other sauces directly to restaurants, where quality matters more than name or trending brands. This has allowed it to maintain very high margins, even exceeding the industry average while also growing organically at 8-10%. I believe the prospects for continued high margin growth remain strong and the re...
mtreasure/iStock via Getty Images Investment thesis Armanino Foods (OTC: AMNF ) sells pesto and other sauces directly to restaurants, where quality matters more than name or trending brands. This has allowed it to maintain very high margins, even exceeding the industry average while also growing organically at 8-10%. I believe the prospects for continued high margin growth remain strong and the recent drawdown has provided an opportunity to buy this good business at a reasonable valuation. Quality as the competitive advantage Armanino is a very simple business to understand, as is typical of food companies. They basically make frozen Italian food, such as pesto, other sauces, pasta, meatballs and even cheeses. Nothing particularly disruptive, but it has allowed them to grow their sales at a rate of 15% annually since 2021, but I think a reasonable growth rate that we could expect in the future would be around 8-10%, like in the last 3 years if we remove the atypically high growth of fiscal year 2022. Still, it remains an attractive growth rate for a food company. Armanino's main focus is selling to restaurants through large food distributors like Sysco or US Foods. In my opinion, this approach is more interesting in terms of the quality of sales because the company depend less on branding and more on product, since a restaurant isn't looking for the new trending ingredient on TikTok. Rather, they're looking for reliability. And once you're in, you tend to stay in, because if a kitchen uses Armanino's sauces on its menu, changing it means risking a loss of consistency. We've all experienced a local restaurant losing its signature flavor, which makes you less inclined to go there again. That’s the kind of friction that works in Armanino’s favor. Armanino investor presentation The company also has a secondary growth opportunity its presence in the retail sector, with its products available in supermarkets. I can't say it's a particularly significant segment and the com...
narvo vexar/iStock via Getty Images "Triple-Factor" Closed-End Fund Report (This was formerly the "High-High-Low" CEF Report, now renamed to better reflect the systematic screening for three key attributes: high yield, strong coverage, and discount to NAV) Author Our systematic approach screens over 400 closed-end funds to identify candidates meeting three critical criteria that balance yield, dis...
narvo vexar/iStock via Getty Images "Triple-Factor" Closed-End Fund Report (This was formerly the "High-High-Low" CEF Report, now renamed to better reflect the systematic screening for three key attributes: high yield, strong coverage, and discount to NAV) Author Our systematic approach screens over 400 closed-end funds to identify candidates meeting three critical criteria that balance yield, distribution sustainability, and value. This screening methodology originated from a member's suggestion: Stanford, you should do a follow up article on CEF that distribute 8%+, have 90% or more coverage and trade under NAV. What does that look like in today's world? How many funds are doing that? What are the Z scores? I think many investors would be interested who are pushing for higher yield to identify best in class of aggressive funds that are coming close to covering dividends. Allows people to reevaluate risk/reward. Therefore, the Triple-Factor screen identifies funds with the combination of: Substantial yield (>6.5%) Strong distribution coverage (>90%) Value opportunity (trading at a discount to NAV) How is coverage calculated? For the following fund houses, the latest trailing coverage numbers from the fund's latest unaudited monthly estimates are used: PIMCO: trailing 6-month coverage BlackRock: trailing 3-month coverage Nuveen: trailing 3-month coverage Eaton Vance: trailing 3-month coverage Coverage ratios for the remaining funds are based on earnings data from their latest annual or semi-annual reports. Since these reports are published just twice yearly, these coverage figures may lag by up to six months compared to funds that provide monthly earnings estimates. I hope that these rankings of Triple-Factor CEFs will provide fertile ground for further exploration and due diligence. As a reminder, these top lists are meant to be preliminary shortlists for further research and are not meant to be the final analysis for a buy or sell decision. Key to table headings: ...
John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management chief investment strategist, says what he see as a mild selloff during the Iran war will likely cap the extent of the US stock market relief rally on "Bloomberg Open Interest." (Source: Bloomberg)
John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management chief investment strategist, says what he see as a mild selloff during the Iran war will likely cap the extent of the US stock market relief rally on "Bloomberg Open Interest." (Source: Bloomberg)