A short time ago, most people wouldn’t have batted an eyelash over a ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But 55-days into the war on Iran, energy traders are locked on every movement in the narrow passage, through which huge volumes of the world’s oil, gas, fuel and fertilizer used to flow. With no end in sight to US and Iranian efforts to blockade the channel, alarms are ringing louder ove...
A short time ago, most people wouldn’t have batted an eyelash over a ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But 55-days into the war on Iran, energy traders are locked on every movement in the narrow passage, through which huge volumes of the world’s oil, gas, fuel and fertilizer used to flow. With no end in sight to US and Iranian efforts to blockade the channel, alarms are ringing louder over the consequences to the global economy . Goldman Sachs bankers figure almost three-fifths of Persian Gulf oil exports have ceased. With dwindling fossil fuel reserves of its own, the situation looks particularly dire in Europe. The International Energy Agency reported today that tight gas supplies will extend into 2027. Scarcity on traded markets is already showing up in the data, with liquified natural gas imports dropping for the first time in more than a year. European Union policymakers are adding an additional challenge by cutting short term purchases of Russian LNG, which last year covered a significant part of the bloc’s consumption. “Europe must have a lot more courage,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told reporters in Cyprus yesterday, shortly before talking with her counterparts about the energy crunch. We’re told EU heads of government left knowing they’re in a bind that won’t be easy to solve. —Jonathan Tirone What You Need to Know Today Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Pakistan’s capital later today for a possible second round of peace talks with the US. The sides were set to convene earlier this week before President Donald Trump doubled down on a naval blockade . If the White House is looking for tips on how to negotiate with the Iranians, then they should look no further than Wendy Sherman. The former US deputy secretary of state told us in an interview how she once had to spend 28-straight days negotiating in a Vienna hotel with Araghchi before striking a deal. People behaving badly on social media is nothing new. Doo...
Earnings Call Insights: The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK) Q1 2026 Management View Damian Kozlowski said the company was “maintaining our guidance of $5.90, EPS for '26 with $1.75 per share in the fourth quarter” and added: “Our expectation for '27 EPS is in a range $8.10 to $8.30.” Kozlowski highlighted fintech momentum and new initiatives, saying “Fintech, GDV continues to grow above trend at 18% year-ove...
Earnings Call Insights: The Bancorp, Inc. (TBBK) Q1 2026 Management View Damian Kozlowski said the company was “maintaining our guidance of $5.90, EPS for '26 with $1.75 per share in the fourth quarter” and added: “Our expectation for '27 EPS is in a range $8.10 to $8.30.” Kozlowski highlighted fintech momentum and new initiatives, saying “Fintech, GDV continues to grow above trend at 18% year-over-year,” and that “Cash at program has been launched. It will ramp up during '26 and '27 and show progressive accretion to our financials.” He also said, “As previously said, we expect to launch at least 2 significant additional programs in '26,” while “Embedded finance platform is close to completing the development of its first operational use case.” Kozlowski tied capital return to the plan, saying “2026 buybacks are forecast to be $200 million total and $50 million a quarter in '26 with '27 buybacks equal to near 100% of net income in the year.” Quote (Executive VP & CFO Dominic Canuso): “Ending loans for the quarter are $7.75 billion, which is a 9% non-annualized linked quarter growth and 22% growth year-over-year.” Outlook $1.75 Q4 2026 EPS target vs. $1.74 (analysts’ estimate for Q4 2026). Kozlowski reiterated the annual outlook and framed timing for key drivers: “We have very little revenue for embedded finance in '26. We have more in '27,” and said embedded finance impact “will really be fulfilled in '27 and '28.” On Cash App timing, Kozlowski said, “by the end of the year, it should be fairly meaningful to our financials,” and added: “we see a bump in the fourth quarter.” Guidance language shifted on 2027 from a single point previously to a range now; Kozlowski said the 2027 expectation is “$8.10 to $8.30.” Financial Results Kozlowski reported profitability and growth metrics: “First quarter ROE was 35.1% and ROA was 2.57%,” and “Revenue growth in the quarter, which includes both fee and spread revenue was 15% year-over-year.” Canuso described balance sheet mix sh...
Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Shares of TransDigm Group Incorporated ( TDG ) has lost over 10% since my last report . Stock prices had already fallen in February following the release of the first quarter results and the war in Iran has investors concerned on the impact of cost inflation. In this report, I revisit the TransDigm to assess whether the stock is too risky given cost inf...
Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Shares of TransDigm Group Incorporated ( TDG ) has lost over 10% since my last report . Stock prices had already fallen in February following the release of the first quarter results and the war in Iran has investors concerned on the impact of cost inflation. In this report, I revisit the TransDigm to assess whether the stock is too risky given cost inflation risks or whether the current share prices open up a buy opportunity for investors. Commercial Exposure Is The Main Cause Of Concern TransDigm has exposure to the defense market as well as the commercial airplanes market. Sales to manufacturers accounts for roughly 25% of the revenues while commercial aftermarket sales account for 32% of sales. That means that roughly 57% of sales are attributable to commercial aerospace and 43% to defense. In terms of EBITDA, the aftermarket business brings in roughly 75% of the profits. With the war in Iran, there are concerns that commercial aftermarket sales growth will stall and that is not an odd thought given that airlines are flying less. Less flying means less cycles on life limited parts or LLPs and pushes out demand for parts. At the same time inflation may rise and result in higher costs for not only the aftermarket business or only for the commercial business, but for the entire business where the company has no inflation escalators in place. I note that for the upcoming quarterly results, analysts have increased EPS estimates by 3.2% compared to three months ago. The one-month revision trend, however, shows that in the three quarters after that EPS estimates have been revised down by up to a percent against revenue increases of up to 2%. While there is some cause for concern, I note that estimates have been holding rather well. TransDigm Free Cash Flow Growth Prospect Is Impressive To determine multi-year price targets, The Aerospace Forum has developed a stock screener that uses a combination of analyst consensus on EBI...
In recent months, Amphenol Corporation has drawn attention as a key supplier of high-technology interconnects for AI data centers, completed its acquisition of CommScope’s Connectivity and Cable Solutions business, and reported record 2025 results while advancing new sustainability goals. Together with analysts’ upgraded earnings expectations across major segments, these moves have reinforced Amph...
In recent months, Amphenol Corporation has drawn attention as a key supplier of high-technology interconnects for AI data centers, completed its acquisition of CommScope’s Connectivity and Cable Solutions business, and reported record 2025 results while advancing new sustainability goals. Together with analysts’ upgraded earnings expectations across major segments, these moves have reinforced Amphenol’s role at the core of AI-related hardware and fiber connectivity buildouts. We’ll now...
Cava's Lone Bear Analyst Flags Weak Foot Traffic After Stock's 123% Surge Northcoast Research analyst Jim Sanderson has emerged as Cava Group's lone bear on Wall Street, warning in an interview with Bloomberg that the stock's 123% rally has gone too far. " The risk profile, given what I see macroeconomically, is unnerving ," Sanderson said in the interview. He noted that the recent surge in the st...
Cava's Lone Bear Analyst Flags Weak Foot Traffic After Stock's 123% Surge Northcoast Research analyst Jim Sanderson has emerged as Cava Group's lone bear on Wall Street, warning in an interview with Bloomberg that the stock's 123% rally has gone too far. " The risk profile, given what I see macroeconomically, is unnerving ," Sanderson said in the interview. He noted that the recent surge in the stock has made it very expensive to own. He continued, " The red flag for me was seeing that traffic at some of the mature locations seemed to be very underwhelming, and in many instances, trending negative for several months relative to the peer group ." Cava is the Mediterranean version of Chipotle and builds customers' meals around greens, rice, or pita, then adds proteins, spreads, toppings, and sauces. As with any fast-casual restaurant chain, there is typically a period of consumer hype. And as we all know, on a long enough timeline, nothing lasts forever. Cava stock is trading at a hefty premium to both the broader market and industry peers. It trades at 159 times forward earnings, compared with Chipotle at about 28 times and the S&P 500 Index at nearly 21 times. Bloomberg data show Sanderson is the only bear, as Wall Street analysts are largely bullish. There are 17 "Buys" on the stock, along with 13 "Holds." The average 12-month price target is $88.95. Sanderson's interview follows a note earlier this week from Goldman analyst Christine Cho, who said fast food's " bang for the buck " promotions are working while casual dining's appeal is sliding. If Sanderson's data on underwhelming foot traffic at certain mature locations is accurate, it may suggest that management will eventually need to deploy discounts or promotions to re-energize consumer interest in Mediterranean-style bowls, salads, and pitas. Otherwise, Cava's Wall Street growth story could seriously lose momentum. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 - 12:05
An analyst firm just made the bull case for one of the year’s hottest semiconductor stories. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson, with the firm lifting its price target to $375. The revision follows Intel‘s (NASDAQ:INTC) blowout Q1 2026 earnings, which Barron’s characterized as validating AMD’s data center ... DA Davidson Upgrades AMD to Buy With a $...
An analyst firm just made the bull case for one of the year’s hottest semiconductor stories. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson, with the firm lifting its price target to $375. The revision follows Intel‘s (NASDAQ:INTC) blowout Q1 2026 earnings, which Barron’s characterized as validating AMD’s data center ... DA Davidson Upgrades AMD to Buy With a $375 Price Target: The Big Winner of Intel Earnings?
VV Shots/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ) reported a solid double-beat to kick off Mag 7 earnings season. But shares sold off as CEO Elon Musk pointed to high capex spending as the AI arms race presses on. The stock actually rose initially, but details on the Q1 conference call poured cold water on the top and bottom line figures. Bigger picture, TSLA is the worst-performing ...
VV Shots/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ) reported a solid double-beat to kick off Mag 7 earnings season. But shares sold off as CEO Elon Musk pointed to high capex spending as the AI arms race presses on. The stock actually rose initially, but details on the Q1 conference call poured cold water on the top and bottom line figures. Bigger picture, TSLA is the worst-performing Mag 7 equity year-to-date. Over the past year, the EV automaker’s shares have soared 49%, but optimism is all but gone after a tough stretch since last December. I had a "B uy" rating on TSLA back in February (after the Q4 report). The stock is down 11% since then, but I’m keeping my "B uy" rating. Today, I’ll provide a fresh look at the fundamentals, valuations, and technicals. TSLA Now Lags The Mag 7 ETF YoY StockCharts.com In April, TSLA reported a solid set of quarterly results. Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 topped the Wall Street consensus forecast of $0.35, while revenue of $22.4 billion, up 16% from the same period a year earlier, was a small $190 million beat. Its gross margin came in at 21.1% (up a percentage point sequentially), while capex verified at $2.49 billion, also up from Q4 2025. Shares briefly traded higher post the report, perhaps due to a free cash flow beat, too. But TSLA eventually dropped 3.5% by the close of the following trading day. It marked the second consecutive small post-earnings move and was well within the straddle’s implied change (5.5%). Looking ahead to the July Q2 report, the options market prices in a 6.8% earnings-related stock price swing based on the at-the-money straddle. Implied volatility is actually not all that high right now, currently 42%, according to Option Research & Technology Services. Shares of the $1.4 trillion market cap Consumer Discretionary company have a short interest of only 1.75%. Looking back on the quarter that was, Tesla reported a strong start to the year, with revenue, earnings, gross margin, and free cash flo...
VV Shots/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ) reported a solid double-beat to kick off Mag 7 earnings season. But shares sold off as CEO Elon Musk pointed to high capex spending as the AI arms race presses on. The stock actually rose initially, but details on the Q1 conference call poured cold water on the top and bottom line figures. Bigger picture, TSLA is the worst-performing ...
VV Shots/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ) reported a solid double-beat to kick off Mag 7 earnings season. But shares sold off as CEO Elon Musk pointed to high capex spending as the AI arms race presses on. The stock actually rose initially, but details on the Q1 conference call poured cold water on the top and bottom line figures. Bigger picture, TSLA is the worst-performing Mag 7 equity year-to-date. Over the past year, the EV automaker’s shares have soared 49%, but optimism is all but gone after a tough stretch since last December. I had a "B uy" rating on TSLA back in February (after the Q4 report). The stock is down 11% since then, but I’m keeping my "B uy" rating. Today, I’ll provide a fresh look at the fundamentals, valuations, and technicals. TSLA Now Lags The Mag 7 ETF YoY StockCharts.com In April, TSLA reported a solid set of quarterly results. Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 topped the Wall Street consensus forecast of $0.35, while revenue of $22.4 billion, up 16% from the same period a year earlier, was a small $190 million beat. Its gross margin came in at 21.1% (up a percentage point sequentially), while capex verified at $2.49 billion, also up from Q4 2025. Shares briefly traded higher post the report, perhaps due to a free cash flow beat, too. But TSLA eventually dropped 3.5% by the close of the following trading day. It marked the second consecutive small post-earnings move and was well within the straddle’s implied change (5.5%). Looking ahead to the July Q2 report, the options market prices in a 6.8% earnings-related stock price swing based on the at-the-money straddle. Implied volatility is actually not all that high right now, currently 42%, according to Option Research & Technology Services. Shares of the $1.4 trillion market cap Consumer Discretionary company have a short interest of only 1.75%. Looking back on the quarter that was, Tesla reported a strong start to the year, with revenue, earnings, gross margin, and free cash flo...
rarrarorro The Wisconsin Department of Justice has filed lawsuits against Kalshi ( KALSHI ), Robinhood ( HOOD ), Polymarket ( POLYMARKET ), Coinbase ( COIN ), and Crypto.com over illegal sports betting. The state department alleges that the companies flouted the laws by disguising sports betting on their online platforms as "event contracts". Furthermore, the complaint alleges that the accused fir...
rarrarorro The Wisconsin Department of Justice has filed lawsuits against Kalshi ( KALSHI ), Robinhood ( HOOD ), Polymarket ( POLYMARKET ), Coinbase ( COIN ), and Crypto.com over illegal sports betting. The state department alleges that the companies flouted the laws by disguising sports betting on their online platforms as "event contracts". Furthermore, the complaint alleges that the accused firms collect a fee for every bet made, thereby generating revenue by violating the state's gambling laws. "Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn't make it lawful," said AG Kaul. "These companies' alleged facilitation of sports betting in Wisconsin should be shut down." The lawsuits, requiring preliminary and permanent injunctions, were filed in Dane County on Thursday. Wisconsin is the latest state to take action against prediction markets over sports-related event contracts. Currently, the U.S. prediction market is sitting in a rapidly evolving but still unsettled regulatory environment. The CFTC has moved toward a formal framework, including a March 12 advance notice of proposed rulemaking and a staff advisory, while also withdrawing an earlier proposal that could have tightened limits on sports- and politics-related contracts. At the same time, state regulators and litigants are aggressively challenging the industry, especially where contracts overlap with gambling or sports betting. The result today is a patchwork of federal oversight, active rulemaking, and ongoing state-level legal pressure. Earlier this month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against three states—Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois—over unlawful efforts to regulate prediction markets. More on Prediction Markets Prediction markets are driving up the cost of acquiring new sports betting customers Will sports betting operators turn to M&A as Kalshi and Polymarket keep taking market share? New Jersey regulators cannot prevent Kalshi from offering sports event contracts, says court
Tompkins Financial press release ( TMP ): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.82. Revenue of $83.69M. More on Tompkins Financial Tompkins Financial Corporation: An Upgrade Heading Into Earnings Is Unwarranted Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Tompkins Financial Historical earnings data for Tompkins Financial Dividend scorecard for Tompkins Financial Financial information for Tompkins Financial
Tompkins Financial press release ( TMP ): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.82. Revenue of $83.69M. More on Tompkins Financial Tompkins Financial Corporation: An Upgrade Heading Into Earnings Is Unwarranted Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Tompkins Financial Historical earnings data for Tompkins Financial Dividend scorecard for Tompkins Financial Financial information for Tompkins Financial
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL, XETRA:ORC), and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) are expected to remain key beneficiaries of accelerating AI compute demand, according to a Jefferies analyst note following attendance at Google...
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL, XETRA:ORC), and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) are expected to remain key beneficiaries of accelerating AI compute demand, according to a Jefferies analyst note following attendance at Google...
Earnings Call Insights: Amerant Bancorp (AMTB) Q1 2026 Management View “I’m proud of the continued progress we have made on the 3 priorities we outlined last quarter, stabilizing the business, optimizing our credit portfolio and growing sustainably.” (Senior EVP, Interim CEO & Director Carlos Iafigliola) “We exited and transferred to held for sale another group of loans that we no longer consider ...
Earnings Call Insights: Amerant Bancorp (AMTB) Q1 2026 Management View “I’m proud of the continued progress we have made on the 3 priorities we outlined last quarter, stabilizing the business, optimizing our credit portfolio and growing sustainably.” (Senior EVP, Interim CEO & Director Carlos Iafigliola) “We exited and transferred to held for sale another group of loans that we no longer consider core to our business,” and the company “fundamentally shifted underwriting, prioritizing borrowers with proven stable operating history over projection-based lending” while “moving away from out-of-market collateral projects, except selectively for existing clients in core markets.” (Senior EVP, Interim CEO & Director Iafigliola) “Our net income for Q1 was in line with our guidance,” and management said it “significantly reduced noninterest expenses quarter-over-quarter, supported by better-than-expected cost savings,” adding, “our expense management efforts represents approximately $30 million in cost savings for 2026.” (Senior EVP, Interim CEO & Director Iafigliola) “This quarter, we delivered, recording $188 million of total deposit growth in Q1, from which $95 million came from Venezuela,” and management described these as “quite attractive due to their stability, overall cost of funds and beta in rates-up cycle.” (Senior EVP, Interim CEO & Director Iafigliola) “Going forward, we will be discussing results without breaking down core versus noncore metrics in our financials,” adding, “we would like to be more selective with adjustments with the goal of providing a clearer and more straightforward view of our quarterly performance.” (Senior EVP & CFO Sharymar Yepez) “We redesigned our annual review format to drive deeper risk identification and recalibrated the review threshold from total credit exposures of $5 million to $3 million,” and “expect to review all exposures over $1 million through our standardized review,” alongside “quarterly top 20 reviews across CRE, C&I a...
Alllex/iStock via Getty Images Why Anterix: The Investment Summary Anterix ( NASDAQ: ATEX ) is unique. Anterix has a de facto monopoly on 900 MHz spectrum in the United States. The management, in their last call, valued the spectrum at $2.5 billion to $7 b illion . Anterix's market capitalisation is only $750 million, and it has a net cash position. No other c ompany holds nationwide broadband-cap...
Alllex/iStock via Getty Images Why Anterix: The Investment Summary Anterix ( NASDAQ: ATEX ) is unique. Anterix has a de facto monopoly on 900 MHz spectrum in the United States. The management, in their last call, valued the spectrum at $2.5 billion to $7 b illion . Anterix's market capitalisation is only $750 million, and it has a net cash position. No other c ompany holds nationwide broadband-capable 900 MH z spectrum. The FCC is the barrier to entry - it would be almost impossible for a new entrant to gain this spectrum. On February 8, 2026, the FCC issued a game-changing ruling that extended the Anterix band, doubling its capacity. The main current users of the spectrum are US utilities Qualco mm announced a game-changing collaboration with Anterix on February 26, 2026. The aim is to develop a 5G chipset that could use the 900 MHz band in mobile devices. Every mobile phone can then connect and use the spectrum. When we asked when a similar partnership with Apple is coming, we were told: "Stay tuned". To date, Anterix has over $400 million in contracts with 12 signed utility customers. Anterix claims it has a $3 billion contract pipeline . I believe that with the recent FCC ruling, the contract acquisition may accelerate. This week's announcement of a new contract may be an indication. On April 14, 2026, Amazon a nnounced $11.57 billion acquisition of Globalstar at 117% premium. The transaction shows that substantial premiums are paid for spectrum assets. Morgan Stanley has been contracted by Anterix to run a formal strategic review. The aim may be to secure a deal similar to the one Globalstar secured for its shareholders. History Anterix was established in 2014 , when the company acquired 6 MHz of 900 MHz spectrum from Sprint for $100 million. At that time, the company was called Pacific DataVision (pdvWireless). In 2019, the company changed its name to Anterix. In 2020, Anterix got FCC approval for a 3x3 MHz broadband segment in the 900 MHz spectrum. In 2021, A...
Google-parent Alphabet will invest $10 billion in AI startup Anthropic, with another $30 billion potentially to follow, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. Google is committing $10 billion now in cash at a $350 billion valuation and will invest a further $30 billion if Anthropic meets performance targets, the report said. Google and Anthropic did not immediately respond to Reuters' reques...
Google-parent Alphabet will invest $10 billion in AI startup Anthropic, with another $30 billion potentially to follow, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. Google is committing $10 billion now in cash at a $350 billion valuation and will invest a further $30 billion if Anthropic meets performance targets, the report said. Google and Anthropic did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.
Tesla is poised to finish the week lower, snapping a short-lived one-week winning streak as the company's Q1 earnings report raised some concerns for investors.
Tesla is poised to finish the week lower, snapping a short-lived one-week winning streak as the company's Q1 earnings report raised some concerns for investors.
Last year, Morten Christensen spent about $1,200 to attend a dinner with President Donald Trump reserved for the top holders of the president’s memecoin. This year, he’s going to a similar event for just around $500. “My wife wasn’t interested in joining me,” Christensen said in an interview. The April 25 gathering at Mar-a-Lago will feature Trump as keynote speaker, according to its promoter, alo...
Last year, Morten Christensen spent about $1,200 to attend a dinner with President Donald Trump reserved for the top holders of the president’s memecoin. This year, he’s going to a similar event for just around $500. “My wife wasn’t interested in joining me,” Christensen said in an interview. The April 25 gathering at Mar-a-Lago will feature Trump as keynote speaker, according to its promoter, along with Tether Chief Executive Paolo Ardoino , billionaire Tim Draper and Cathie Wood of ARK Investment Management. The top 297 qualifying holders of the Trump memecoin get access to a conference and a gala luncheon. The lead 29 can attend a reception with the president. A person familiar with Trump’s plans said he was attending in his personal capacity. Christensen made the cut without holding the memecoin for most of the contest. Across four and a half days, he held tokens and, each time, placed an offsetting bet that he would profit if the price fell — canceling out his exposure to the coin’s moves. He first bought 10,000 tokens at roughly $2.80 each, held them for a day, then sold. In the final days, he bought $15,000 worth, hedged it the same way, and unwound the position. When the contest ended, he owned none. His total cost: $506.27 in trading fees. He finished 207th on the leaderboard. Christensen, who runs AirdropAlert.com, wasn’t breaking the rules. The contest rewarded the size of a position over time, which meant any trader with a crypto account could buy the tokens, cancel out the price risk, and qualify for the dinner — all for the cost of trading fees. Last year’s contest drew more competition. Christensen held roughly $250,000 of the memecoin the weekend it ended, offset it the same way, and unwound it afterward, spending about $1,200 in fees to attend the dinner at a Trump golf club outside Washington. The 2025 event had the feel of a coronation. This April conference arrives against a different backdrop. Trump’s memecoin is down 40% this year and 93% from ...