gorodenkoff/iStock via Getty Images Shares of Arrow Electronics ( ARW ) have risen convincingly to fresh all-time highs, which is not too uncommon with the market at large trading near its highs as well. This share price momentum has been backed up by strong results of the business, driven by AI providing an indirect uplift to the business as well. Such momentum is to be applauded, and while a 15 ...
gorodenkoff/iStock via Getty Images Shares of Arrow Electronics ( ARW ) have risen convincingly to fresh all-time highs, which is not too uncommon with the market at large trading near its highs as well. This share price momentum has been backed up by strong results of the business, driven by AI providing an indirect uplift to the business as well. Such momentum is to be applauded, and while a 15 times earnings multiple looks cheap, shares historically have traded at non-demanding multiples. The big potential is that Arrow operates at historically low margins and sales, as a prolonged recovery and structurally better business leave real potential, but that requires real execution to drive value on top of the current reasonable multiples. This makes me upbeat in the long haul, but following a 35% return in just a few weeks, I am taking some cash off the table here. Other serial value compounders and electronic distributors are discussed more extensively at Value In Corporate Events . A Solid 2025 In February, Arrow Electronics reported strong 2025 results, a year in which revenues rose by more than 10% to $30.85 billion, yet fourth-quarter sales growth came in at twice that number, with sales up 20% to $8.75 billion. The largest $21.50 billion global components business grew sales 8% last year, with global enterprise computing solutions up 18% to $9.35 billion, with this smaller segment posting much higher margins, proving fuel to margin expansion across the board (at least recently). Despite the rapid growth in sales, full-year operating profits rose just 7%, although fourth-quarter operating profits rose as much as 50%. Full-year operating margins were reported at 2.7%, down a few basis points from the year before, although fourth-quarter margins topped 3.3% of sales. The company reported adjusted earnings of $11.02 per share, that number up 4% on the year before, up nearly half a dollar per share. This growth is driven by the strong end to 2025, a quarter in which...
peshkov/iStock via Getty Images By Jennifer Nash The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators across four broad categories. The CFNAI is a forward-looking indicator that suggests how the economy will likely look in the near term and has been called one of th...
peshkov/iStock via Getty Images By Jennifer Nash The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators across four broad categories. The CFNAI is a forward-looking indicator that suggests how the economy will likely look in the near term and has been called one of the "most important and overlooked economic numbers". The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.20 in March from +0.03 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from March, and three categories made negative contributions. The first chart below shows the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967 with a callout to the most recent 12 months. The dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy and volatile from month to month. The three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) is more useful and consistent as an indicator of the actual trend for economic activity. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, dropped to -0.03 in March from +0.03 in February. The next chart highlights the +0.7 and -0.7 levels. These levels are significant because the Chicago Fed has observed some important historical patterns around them, as explained by the callout in the chart below. The next chart includes an overlay of GDP. For the most part, the CFNAI-MA3 has been positive while the economy has expanded and has been negative while the economy contracts. Surprisingly, this was not the case over the past few years. The CFNAI-MA3 was negative from November 2022 through December 2024, while the U.S. economy expanded during that same time frame. The Long-Term ...
Iran Announces First Hormuz Toll Fees Successfully Transferred To Central Bank President Trump has repeatedly said that Iran "better not" collect tolls from ships seeking to traverse the Hormuz Strait waterway, as both warring sides have initiated their own rival blockades of different sectors of the strait. Just last week, Trump had flatly rejected the possibility of Tehran imposing fees - report...
Iran Announces First Hormuz Toll Fees Successfully Transferred To Central Bank President Trump has repeatedly said that Iran "better not" collect tolls from ships seeking to traverse the Hormuz Strait waterway, as both warring sides have initiated their own rival blockades of different sectors of the strait. Just last week, Trump had flatly rejected the possibility of Tehran imposing fees - reportedly $2 million or perhaps even more - when a reporter asked about the prospect of restrictions or tolls managed by Iran for strait passage. "Nope. No way. No. Nope," Trump had responded . He said there can't be tolls along with restrictions, suggesting that a future system could perhaps be worked out, even of some kind of toll-sharing scheme. "No, they’re not going to be tolls." The Central Bank of Iran. Source: Iran International Earlier this month the president had even stated of tolls, "We're thinking of doing it as a joint venture" - in reference to Washington and Tehran, which of course raised eyebrows. "It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing." "We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well," Trump had later separately written on Truth Social. "I feel confident that it will." But after all this, on Thursday Iran has publicly announced for the first time that initial toll payments have been successfully transferred to the state-operated Central Bank of Iran (CBI) : The Iranian authorities have received revenue from tolls for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time, Parliament Deputy Speaker Hamid Reza Hajibabai said. "The first revenue received from tolls in the Strait of Hormuz has been transferred to the Central Bank's account," the Fars news agency quoted him as saying. A specific monetary amount was not given, but this week has seen reports that several Iranian tankers, with transponders off, have made it past the US Nav...