A New Iran (Military?) Base Case By Michael Every of Rabobank Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise. As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams...
A New Iran (Military?) Base Case By Michael Every of Rabobank Our central assumption for the Iran war had been that by end the third week of April at latest, the Iranian regime faction willing to make a deal in line with Trump’s tweets would have asserted itself over those who won’t, Hormuz would slowly reopen, and energy markets gradually normalise. As neither the Iranian nor US negotiating teams traveled to Pakistan for the second round of peace talks yesterday, that cannot happen. Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended closure of Hormuz (in the range of 2-4 weeks). However, the likelihood of escalation to achieve that de-escalation is very high, which risks more energy supply damage. Trump just unilaterally and indefinitely extended the ceasefire, “based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured,” which the Iranians didn’t request, but Pakistan did. In the Middle East, making a threat and not following through smacks of weakness, and will be noted (again) by Tehran’s hardliners. He added US attacks would be held off “until such time as their leadership and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.” That’s as a Saudi tweet claimed Ghalibaf and Pezeskhian, willing to negotiate with Trump, have been arrested by the IRGC. If true, that points to a unified Iranian position of defiance. That would then require a US response - either an attack or a 1956 Suez Crisis retreat . Of course, Iran may be incapable of a unified answer until its factions turn on each other (which is likely part of the US strategy) - that would also suggest the need for a US attack, to ‘shake the box’. Or this ceasefire extension can be a US deception as its forces continue to fly or sail into the region. Meanwhile, the US economic blockade of Iran and the de facto Iranian blockade of Hormuz remain in place: critical energy and goods are not going to flow for longer, with exponentially rising economic damage. Indeed, the US says it will ramp up Operation ...
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEMKT: SCHD) is back in a big way in 2026. Over the past few years, the artificial intelligence (AI) driven rally in tech and growth stocks rendered its conservative dividend strategy moot. Now that we've seen a big rotation away from the mega-cap tech leaders, the fund's quality-focused dividend stock selection strategy has made it the best-performing U.S. d...
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEMKT: SCHD) is back in a big way in 2026. Over the past few years, the artificial intelligence (AI) driven rally in tech and growth stocks rendered its conservative dividend strategy moot. Now that we've seen a big rotation away from the mega-cap tech leaders, the fund's quality-focused dividend stock selection strategy has made it the best-performing U.S. dividend ETF year to date (as of April 16, 2026). One of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF's key advantages is that it seems to draw in new money regardless of how it's performing. Over the past three years when it was mostly one of the worst-performing dividend ETFs around, the fund had over $25 billion of net inflows. It's up to $86 billion in total assets and it's just starting to regain its momentum. While the fund's methodology -- focusing on dividend growth, balance sheet quality, and high yield -- is perhaps the biggest selling point, some aspects of the current environment also work in its favor. And it's attracting the smart money right now. Continue reading
As the saying goes, there are many possible reasons for an insider to sell a stock, but only one reason to buy -- they expect to make money. So let's look at two noteworthy recent insider buys. On Tuesday, Badger Meter's CEO, Kenneth Bockhorst, made a $258,573 purchase of BMI,
As the saying goes, there are many possible reasons for an insider to sell a stock, but only one reason to buy -- they expect to make money. So let's look at two noteworthy recent insider buys. On Tuesday, Badger Meter's CEO, Kenneth Bockhorst, made a $258,573 purchase of BMI,
jaanalisette Twilio ( TWLO ) and GitLab ( GTLB ) were in focus on Wednesday as Bank of America changed its ratings on the software companies ahead of their respective earnings. Twilio was upgraded to Buy from Underperform as the investment firm said it does not see a risk of disruption coming from artificial intelligence. “We think Twilio will prove to be one of the key infrastructure players for ...
jaanalisette Twilio ( TWLO ) and GitLab ( GTLB ) were in focus on Wednesday as Bank of America changed its ratings on the software companies ahead of their respective earnings. Twilio was upgraded to Buy from Underperform as the investment firm said it does not see a risk of disruption coming from artificial intelligence. “We think Twilio will prove to be one of the key infrastructure players for AI-driven voice and messaging uses cases, where scale and reliability are critical,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients. “We think its key growth metric, gross profit dollar growth will continue accelerating, as we forecast growth of +10% y/y for FY28E, up from +9% for FY26E. This should also drive strong free cash flow margin expansion, which we expect to reach 21.9% in FY28E, up from 18.6% in FY26E. We believe all of this is not yet fully reflected in the stock.” The firm raised its price target on Twilio to $190 from $110. GitLab was downgraded to Neutral as the firm said the risk-reward is now “balanced” until they see strong proof the company's agentic orchestration software development platform strategy is working. The firm lowered its price target on GitLab to $27 from $58. More on Twilio and GitLab Twilio: A Transition Story Caught Between Growth And Maturity GitLab: Finally Time For A Bullish Stance GitLab: Growth Is Slowing, But Cheap Enough To Keep Buying GitLab pops as it deepens AWS collaboration PayPal gains amid activist investor speculation
Earnings Call Insights: Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) Q1 2026 Management view “Orrstown achieved another successful quarter, delivering strong results across the board. Net income increased to $21.8 million or $1.12 per diluted share. Return on average equity and return on average assets continued to exceed peer multiples. Fee income of $15.6 million contributed 24.1% of the total opera...
Earnings Call Insights: Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) Q1 2026 Management view “Orrstown achieved another successful quarter, delivering strong results across the board. Net income increased to $21.8 million or $1.12 per diluted share. Return on average equity and return on average assets continued to exceed peer multiples. Fee income of $15.6 million contributed 24.1% of the total operating income. Noninterest expense declined, highlighting our continued commitment to creating efficiencies within the company. Our net interest margin remained near the top of all peers.” (President, CEO & Director Thomas Quinn) “Loan growth was steady during the quarter, coming in at 4% on an annualized basis. Loan production was excellent, but overall growth was impacted by unexpected loan prepayments. Growth has occurred across our footprint and our product set, a mix of C&I and CRE. Our pipelines continue to be robust and support our growth targets.” (Senior EVP & COO Adam Metz) “Deposits increased by $98.7 million… This shift from borrowings to deposits reduced our go-forward funding costs, which we expect to become more apparent in the second quarter.” (Senior EVP & COO Metz) “We started 2026 off strong with net income of $21.8 million or $1.12 in earnings per diluted share… the net interest margin was 3.90% in the first quarter, down from 4.00% in the fourth quarter of ’25. This was driven by a combination of the impact of the December Fed rate cut on interest income, reduced purchase accounting accretion and temporarily elevated funding costs.” (Executive VP, CFO & Head of Investor Relations Neelesh Kalani) Outlook “With a full quarter of impact, I expect funding costs will decline further in the second quarter of ’26.” (Executive VP, CFO & Head of Investor Relations Kalani) “The previous guidance for net interest margin in the range of 3.90% to 4.00% for ’26 remains with an expectation of the margin increasing from here.” (Executive VP, CFO & Head of Investor Relati...
You want European champions? Try this for size. Deutsche Telekom AG is considering taking full control of T-Mobile US Inc. in a move that could create a $260 billion transatlantic telecoms giant. It’s easy to see why the German suitor wants to go from being T-Mobile’s lead shareholder to its outright owner. The benefits for T-Mobile are less obvious — until you consider its future without a deal. ...
You want European champions? Try this for size. Deutsche Telekom AG is considering taking full control of T-Mobile US Inc. in a move that could create a $260 billion transatlantic telecoms giant. It’s easy to see why the German suitor wants to go from being T-Mobile’s lead shareholder to its outright owner. The benefits for T-Mobile are less obvious — until you consider its future without a deal. T-Mobile, worth $210 billion, has grown rapidly in recent years. Deutsche Telekom owns 53% from past dealmaking and this exposure is the dominant driver of its share price. More than 70% of the German company’s roughly €135 billion ($160 billion) market value is attributable to the holding. Deutsche Telekom is mulling a full merger and has been weighing a move for several years, Bloomberg News has reported. Such a transaction would carry little upfront benefit given the limited overlap between US and German telecoms networks, other than maybe a cheaper tax bill and the bulk-buying of paperclips. But the sheer scale of the organization would make it easier to finance investment in either the US or German businesses, as well as opening up more M&A opportunities. Such strategic flexibility is easy to scoff at for being nebulous or even harmful. After all, dealmaking is risky. Why would T-Mobile shareholders want to help management do expensive takeovers, or allow their cash flow to subsidize network upgrades in Europe? Moreover, a transaction would dilute T-Mobile’s all-American investment story. Deutsche Telekom stock has long traded at a lower multiple of earnings than the US company, reflecting market expectations of slower growth. It’s hard to see a deal offering T-Mobile a high takeover premium to compensate for a change in strategy: Deutsche Telekom already has substantial control and doesn’t need to pay a lot for more. That said, there’s a case for offering at least a modest top-up to T-Mobile’s prevailing share price to get its minority investors to play ball. Deutsche...
Investors in Marvell Technology Inc (Symbol: MRVL) saw new options begin trading today, for the September 2027 expiration. One of the key data points that goes into the price an option buyer is willing to pay, is the time value, so with 513 days until expiration the newly tradi
Investors in Marvell Technology Inc (Symbol: MRVL) saw new options begin trading today, for the September 2027 expiration. One of the key data points that goes into the price an option buyer is willing to pay, is the time value, so with 513 days until expiration the newly tradi
In early trading on Wednesday, shares of Strategy topped the list of the day's best performing components of the Nasdaq 100 index, trading up 8.8%. Year to date, Strategy registers a 17.4% gain. And the worst performing Nasdaq 100 component thus far on the day is T-Mobile US,
In early trading on Wednesday, shares of Strategy topped the list of the day's best performing components of the Nasdaq 100 index, trading up 8.8%. Year to date, Strategy registers a 17.4% gain. And the worst performing Nasdaq 100 component thus far on the day is T-Mobile US,