Liquefied natural gas prices are set to climb to levels not seen in more than three years as hotter weather in Asia and restocking needs in Europe boost demand, according to Morgan Stanley. The Asian benchmark price is set to rise to $25 per million British thermal units in the third and fourth quarters, suggesting an upside of more than 30% to the forward curve, analysts including Devin McDermott...
Liquefied natural gas prices are set to climb to levels not seen in more than three years as hotter weather in Asia and restocking needs in Europe boost demand, according to Morgan Stanley. The Asian benchmark price is set to rise to $25 per million British thermal units in the third and fourth quarters, suggesting an upside of more than 30% to the forward curve, analysts including Devin McDermott and Martijn Rats said in a report. That’s a level last reached in early 2023 — when a push by European nations to offset Russian pipeline supplies boosted global prices. The bank sees prices rising even if there’s a near-term resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, which has virtually shut the Strait of Hormuz and cut off about a fifth of global LNG supply — from Persian Gulf producers Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Consumption has started to rise in key markets including India and China, while the window to build inventories before winter is quickly shrinking, Morgan Stanley said. “In March and April, sharp declines in global imports helped offset much of the lost supply,” the analysts said. “As urgency to rebuild storage grows and summer heat sets in, demand has started to recover.” Read More: China Ramping Up LNG Buying in Anticipation of Summer Heat Most of the lost Persian Gulf supply has been offset by facilities elsewhere running at elevated rates, as well as new capacity starting in North America, Morgan Stanley said. That meant global supply in May was only 1 million tons lower than a year earlier. Meanwhile, forecasts point to modestly hotter weather for June and July in Asia, which should continue to support consumption, the bank said. In Europe, demand fell last month even as inventories are 17% lower than a year ago, and a quarter less than the 10-year average, according to the report.