"We are at the outset of the AI revolution," Huang said, framing last week's $1 trillion-plus wipeout in chip stocks as a near-term positioning event rather than a signal of structural weakness in AI demand.
"We are at the outset of the AI revolution," Huang said, framing last week's $1 trillion-plus wipeout in chip stocks as a near-term positioning event rather than a signal of structural weakness in AI demand.
John M. Chase/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Today, I want to ask readers a question: how likely do you think Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) is to eventually recover, at least partially, from current price levels? Even if you are a Bitcoin bear, do you think we are going to see Bitcoin go exactly to 0 in a straight line from here? If your answer is “likely not” rather than yes, I think Strategy Inc (...
John M. Chase/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Today, I want to ask readers a question: how likely do you think Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) is to eventually recover, at least partially, from current price levels? Even if you are a Bitcoin bear, do you think we are going to see Bitcoin go exactly to 0 in a straight line from here? If your answer is “likely not” rather than yes, I think Strategy Inc ( MSTR ) represents one of the most obvious buys in today’s market. Let me play devil’s advocate: Bitcoin will never become a reserve asset Bitcoin’s market cap at the time of writing is ~$1.22 trillion (with BTC trading at ~$61,000). For a supposed reserve asset, this is a small-ish asset class, in fact, smaller than even a company like Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. ( SSNLF ). Bitcoin is only 14th among the largest assets on Earth (see below). As far as reserve assets go, gold is 25 times larger, while US treasuries held by central banks are worth at least 3 times more than Bitcoin’s total market cap. Companies Market Cap Let’s assume that bears are right, and Bitcoin never stood a chance at becoming a new, global reserve asset. Nor will it ever mature to become a top 5 asset by market cap, which would imply at least a ~3x return from current prices, and Bitcoin trading close to the $200,000 range. Even in that scenario, all that is needed for Bitcoin to go back to trading at ~$100,000 (its most obvious “psychological” threshold) is for an additional ~ $800 billion of capital to pour into it. Is Bitcoin at ~$100,000 compatible with a bearish scenario? This $800 billion figure is purely a market cap calculation that does not account for Bitcoin that is actually circulating and readily available to trade, from which its overall market cap is inferred. Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently only about ~60% of the ~19.9 million that have been mined to date. Of these 12 million Bitcoins, only about ~2.7 million are on exchanges, meaning that they can be easily traded (see cha...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting ...
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it’s us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developments in markets, finance and the economy. And sometimes it’s contributions from our network of expert guests and sources. Whatever it is, we promise it will always be interesting. If you like chatting with us, check out the Odd Lots Discord , where you can hang out and talk with us and with other listeners 24/7. Here’s what Tracy’s thinking about... Joe and I are in Hong Kong, which means I spent the weekend hitting up some of my favorite restaurants and shops in the city. One of those is (somewhat ironically, I guess) the Don Quijote on Queen’s Road Central. Don Quijote is actually a Japanese chain of discount stores, and was a pretty regular part of my life when I was in high school in Tokyo. If you haven’t been to a Don Quijote before, they have basically everything you can imagine — from basic groceries to luxury handbags. The store in Roppongi also had a defunct rollercoaster on its roof and a giant grouper in a fish tank in the lobby, just to add to the eccentricity. Anyway! I went there hoping to find some of the new bags of Calbee potato chips. Traditionally, these chips have been sold in colorful packages with a little potato mascot (“Potato Boy”) on them. But no longer. Now, the Calbee potato chips look like this: Calbee announced last month that it was switching from color packaging to black and white for its chip bags, citing a shortage shortage of naphtha, a key building block of commercial inks. In doing so, Calbee has become one of the most visible examples of companies adapting to the petrochemicals crunch created by the Iran War. But it’s definitely not the only one. More than 100 days into the conflict, we’re seeing both demand destruction due to high prices and substitution driven by shortages. In Asia, where the loss of Middle East supply is most acut...
There's a case for the Federal Reserve to "hike right now,'' and even if policymakers aren't ready yet, the bar to action is definitely getting lower, according to Collin Martin at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. He speaks with Jonathan Ferro and Annmarie Hordern on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance.'' (Source: Bloomberg)
There's a case for the Federal Reserve to "hike right now,'' and even if policymakers aren't ready yet, the bar to action is definitely getting lower, according to Collin Martin at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. He speaks with Jonathan Ferro and Annmarie Hordern on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance.'' (Source: Bloomberg)
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images An information technology company called Flex Ltd. ( FLEX ) is set to join the S&P 500 Index this month, according to the fresh press release from S&P Global . The share price has rallied by around 150% year-to-date, and the S&P 500 inclusion is a robust bullish catalyst, as it will mean more funds and institutional investors buying the stock and drive d...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images An information technology company called Flex Ltd. ( FLEX ) is set to join the S&P 500 Index this month, according to the fresh press release from S&P Global . The share price has rallied by around 150% year-to-date, and the S&P 500 inclusion is a robust bullish catalyst, as it will mean more funds and institutional investors buying the stock and drive demand for it. On top of that, the stock caught my attention as the Seeking Alpha Quant team upgraded it to 'Strong buy' in mid-May. Let's delve into fundamentals and valuation today in order to understand better the nature of increasing attention around FLEX. Fundamental analysis Flex Ltd. represents the industry of electronic manufacturing services ('EMS') with an extensive physical infrastructure of more than 100 facilities across 30 countries, staffed by approximately 150k employees . Three operating segments constitute the company's business with wide diversification across end markets. As the highlighted areas below suggest, Flex has exposure to some of the hottest secular trends of the modern era. Latest 10-K report, Flex Ltd. The ITS and RMS segments historically represented the lion's portion of the company's revenue. However, with rapidly growing demand from AI infrastructure buildout over the past few years, the CPI segment's share has increased significantly. Between FY2024 and FY2026, CPI's proportion in consolidated sales of Flex expanded from 12% to 24%. This segment recorded a 38% revenue growth in FY2026, fueled by strength in both sub-segments, with Cloud and Cooling growing by a 29% increase and Power growing by 61%. Latest 10-K report, Flex Ltd. All three segments are profitable, which is a positive sign as it indicates the strength of the business mix. Profitability of the ITS and RMS segments has been expanding over the past few years, which is another positive indicating operating leverage. The CPI segment had a solid profitability expansion in FY2025,...
Social Security benefits aren't going to disappear anytime soon, despite what you might have heard. But the program isn't in a good spot right now. Its trust funds are running out of money, and the government has no plan for how to fix it. A year ago, the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report projected that the trust fund for retirement benefits would be depleted by 2033. The 2026 edition of this r...
Social Security benefits aren't going to disappear anytime soon, despite what you might have heard. But the program isn't in a good spot right now. Its trust funds are running out of money, and the government has no plan for how to fix it. A year ago, the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report projected that the trust fund for retirement benefits would be depleted by 2033. The 2026 edition of this report is coming soon, and I expect that the news will only get worse for workers and beneficiaries. But that doesn't mean benefit cuts are imminent. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News Nvidia ( NVDA ) continues to see elevated demand for its Grace Blackwell systems, including the GB300 and the B300, as several customers indicated these are becoming more difficult to source, according to Wedbush. "We do not recall availability issues this late in an NVDA accelerator cycle since Ampere/Hopper, a result that to us suggests demand is lifting at a mo...
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News Nvidia ( NVDA ) continues to see elevated demand for its Grace Blackwell systems, including the GB300 and the B300, as several customers indicated these are becoming more difficult to source, according to Wedbush. "We do not recall availability issues this late in an NVDA accelerator cycle since Ampere/Hopper, a result that to us suggests demand is lifting at a more rapid pace than previously expected," said Wedbush analysts Matt Bryson and Antoine Legault in a Monday investor report. Although supply constraints, particularly around memory, remain a primary reason for availability issues, Wedbush noted that Nvidia is "the best situated of the entire technology ecosystem in terms of current supply chain positioning." Nvidia moved ahead of its competitors in acquiring DRAM and HBM supply for 2026 and has likely already done the same for 2027. "While we certainly aren't suggesting that NVDA's peers (and/or customers) haven't also secured future supply commitments, rather we believe it is unlikely that any other silicon design house, CSP, OEM, etc., isn't facing at least the same headwinds (if not greater) in securing incremental parts for any upside requirements," Bryson added. Regarding memory, Wedbush believes Everpure ( P ) might be one of the best ways for investors to take part in sustainable NAND and DRAM price hikes. "With pricing already up 70% (and seemingly set to go higher as the year progresses), this outlook when translated to revenues would imply lifting sales momentum over the course of the year (in sharp contrast with management’s guidance)," Bryson noted. "And this outlook makes far more sense given P's favorable positioning in a higher-priced commodity environment given we believe P uses less NAND (no overprovisioning), cheaper NAND (consumer grade), and less DRAM (per bit of storage) than peers." Wedbush has an Outperform rating on both Nvidia and Everpure, with price targets of $330 and $105, respectively. More on N...
A-Shot-of-Bliss/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Colgate-Palmolive Company ( CL ) recently reported its Q1 numbers , so I thought it would be a good time to revisit the company, as it has been close to 2 years since the last time I covered it, when I said that the company is good but not enough to warrant a position. Since then, the share price has gone down around 7%, while the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF...
A-Shot-of-Bliss/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Colgate-Palmolive Company ( CL ) recently reported its Q1 numbers , so I thought it would be a good time to revisit the company, as it has been close to 2 years since the last time I covered it, when I said that the company is good but not enough to warrant a position. Since then, the share price has gone down around 7%, while the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) saw a 27% increase. Unfortunately, my sentiment hasn’t changed. By the numbers Starting from the top, revenues came in at $5.32B, up 8.4%, which beat estimates by $100m. Organic sales were 2.9%, with +1.1% on volume, +2.2% on price, and -0.4% on mix/private label pet food. The company also breaks it down by region, and here we see that North America is struggling quite a bit, while the rest of the regions are growing strongly. CL 8K Going over the company’s profitability, we can see that the NA region continues to struggle here as well, with a 28% decline in operating profit and by far the lowest operating margins out of the bunch. Latin America is performing the best overall, but EMEA has shown the biggest improvement. Q1 Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.97, which beat consensus by 3 cents. GAAP gross margins came in at 60.6%. CL 8K Looking at the company’s financial position, CL finished the first quarter with around $1.33B in cash and equivalents, against $7.9B in long-term debt. This isn’t particularly worrisome, in my opinion. The company is making close to $1B in operating profits per quarter, while it spends around $62m in interest expenses on the debt, giving us an interest coverage ratio of around 15x. This is a very reasonable ratio. In general, no matter the industry, analysts look for the company to be at least 2x-3x as a minimum. I am a bit more conservative, so I like to see at least a 5x, and here the company’s coverage is more than sufficient. Additionally, the company is making around $750m in cash from operations. An increase of 24.5% y/y. The com...
Vertigo3d Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) staged a notable rebound to begin the week, recovering above the $63,000 level after a sharp selloff on Friday that briefly pushed the cryptocurrency below $60,000 for the first time since September 2024. The world's largest digital asset climbed roughly 7.5% from Friday’s intraday low of $59,100 , offering investors a measure of relief following a period of intense s...
Vertigo3d Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) staged a notable rebound to begin the week, recovering above the $63,000 level after a sharp selloff on Friday that briefly pushed the cryptocurrency below $60,000 for the first time since September 2024. The world's largest digital asset climbed roughly 7.5% from Friday’s intraday low of $59,100 , offering investors a measure of relief following a period of intense selling pressure across the crypto market. The recovery has helped improve sentiment in the very near term, although traders remain cautious as they assess whether the bounce can develop into a more sustained advance. Market participants are closely watching price action for signs of stability after Friday’s steep decline that rattled the digital asset space. While buying interest has returned modestly, uncertainty remains elevated as investors weigh the potential for an extended recovery against the risk of additional downside pressure. Despite the latest rebound, bitcoin continues to face significant longer-term headwinds. The cryptocurrency remains down 28.5% since the start of 2026 and has lost 40.1% over the past 12 months, underscoring the challenging environment that has persisted throughout the year. For now, bitcoin's recovery above $63,000 marks an encouraging start to the trading week, but the broader digital market sentiment remains fragile. Bitcoin ETFs: ( IBIT ), ( ARKB ), ( GBTC ), ( BRRR ), ( BTCO ), ( HODL ), ( BTCW ), ( FBTC ), ( BITB ), and ( EZBC ). More on markets US2Y hits a fresh 52-week high, extending the sharp 2026 yield rally AI benefits still concentrated in the Magnificent Seven, Apollo says MSG shares surge on Knicks Finals run ahead of Trump's expected Game 3 visit Bitcoin breaks below $60K as risk-off sentiment intensifies S&P 500: This Is Not A Dip Yet (Rating Downgrade)
With a brutal semiconductor sell-off weighing heavily on the tech sector and the broader stock markets on Friday, as investors ponder the latest hotter-than-expected jobs print, perhaps a major risk is being overlooked: the situation in Iran and its impact on oil prices. Undoubtedly, the stock market has already seemingly paid its dues, with the ... Is the Countdown to $150 Oil On as the Iran War ...
With a brutal semiconductor sell-off weighing heavily on the tech sector and the broader stock markets on Friday, as investors ponder the latest hotter-than-expected jobs print, perhaps a major risk is being overlooked: the situation in Iran and its impact on oil prices. Undoubtedly, the stock market has already seemingly paid its dues, with the ... Is the Countdown to $150 Oil On as the Iran War Drags?
Check Point Software Technologies ( CHKP ) announced on Monday that it has identified a security vulnerability affecting Remote Access VPN and Mobile Access functionality in certain configurations of its security gateway products. The cybersecurity firm's shares dipped nearly 2% during early trading hours on Monday. In its latest SEC filing , the company highlighted that it has released a software...
Check Point Software Technologies ( CHKP ) announced on Monday that it has identified a security vulnerability affecting Remote Access VPN and Mobile Access functionality in certain configurations of its security gateway products. The cybersecurity firm's shares dipped nearly 2% during early trading hours on Monday. In its latest SEC filing , the company highlighted that it has released a software update that addresses this vulnerability. The firm also added that it is not aware of its network being impacted by this vulnerability as of the date of filing. However, the company warned that the vulnerability could be exploited, under certain circumstances, to obtain unauthorized access to environments in which the affected products are deployed. The company, in its filing, highlighted that it became aware of the vulnerability on June 4 and identified instances of unauthorized access to customer environments through its exploitation. The cybersecurity company said that it has initiated an investigation and is working to identify measures to remediate the vulnerability. Based on the available information and the investigation to date, the company has not determined that this matter is reasonably likely to have a material impact on the company, including its financial condition or results of operations. More on Check Point Software Technologies Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) Presents at J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference Transcript Check Point receives downgrade as firewall business remains under pressure: BofA Check Point falls after Q2 outlook miss, lowers 2026 revenue guidance