Soybeans prices are 1 to 4 cents so far on Wednesday. Futures were in rally mode on Tuesday, with bean oil continuing to pull the market higher, up 6 ¾ to 9 1/4 cents on the beans. Open interest was down 2,142 contracts on Tuesday, mostly in the front months,...
Soybeans prices are 1 to 4 cents so far on Wednesday. Futures were in rally mode on Tuesday, with bean oil continuing to pull the market higher, up 6 ¾ to 9 1/4 cents on the beans. Open interest was down 2,142 contracts on Tuesday, mostly in the front months,...
The Strait of Hormuz stayed at a near standstill Wednesday as Iranian forces opened fire on — and seized — commercial ships. State television reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas , accusing them of attempting to secretly exit the strait. The Wall Street Journal reported that a third was also attacked. Meanwhile, at least two Iranian super...
The Strait of Hormuz stayed at a near standstill Wednesday as Iranian forces opened fire on — and seized — commercial ships. State television reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas , accusing them of attempting to secretly exit the strait. The Wall Street Journal reported that a third was also attacked. Meanwhile, at least two Iranian supertankers tested a US blockade that Tehran says impedes peace talks. Just one liquefied petroleum gas carrier with Iranian ties completed an outbound journey earlier in the day, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Inbound traffic remained equally thin. Analytics firm Vortexa reported that Iran had moved its own oil supertankers , the Hero II and Hedy , into the Arabian Sea, an area where the US has sought to enforce a blockade on Iranian shipping. Meanwhile, the US Navy demonstrated its reach by seizing an Iran-linked cargo ship and boarding a sanctioned oil tanker near Sri Lanka. Even as tensions persist, President Donald Trump has moved to extend the ceasefire , signaling restraint despite stalled negotiations and continued friction at sea. The vessels transiting Hormuz with active Automatic Identification System signals during the past day were confined to a narrow northern lane near the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, the route approved by Tehran. The blockades may encourage ships to switch off their tracking signals to avoid detection, making it harder to get an accurate picture of what’s going through. This means transit figures will sometimes be revised higher, when vessels pop up far way from the riskiest waters. NOTES: Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Persian Gulf. When potential transits are identified, sign...
Getty Images Victor was recently a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg TV to give our view on whether index fund investors should be worried about a recent change in rules at Nasdaq and other index providers that will allow large IPOs to enter the indexes more quickly than in the past. Elon Musk has reportedly been pushing index providers to fast-track the inclusion of newly public companies, and index fu...
Getty Images Victor was recently a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg TV to give our view on whether index fund investors should be worried about a recent change in rules at Nasdaq and other index providers that will allow large IPOs to enter the indexes more quickly than in the past. Elon Musk has reportedly been pushing index providers to fast-track the inclusion of newly public companies, and index fund investors are right to ask whether what’s good for IPO issuers and their early backers is also good for them. After all, recently IPO’d stocks have historically performed poorly relative to the overall market and to stocks with similar characteristics. Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, one of the most prolific researchers in this area, has found that over the five years following their IPO, these companies underperformed the market by 3% to 5% per year. 1 Most investors don’t need to read Professor Ritter’s research to have a feel for the dangers of holding “hot” IPOs beyond the initial post-IPO pop. Many will recall the dismal performance of the huge wave of IPOs in 2020 and the even larger, SPAC-dominated vintage of 2021. So it is understandable that investors are feeling nervous staring down the large volume of IPOs expected to come to market in the next year or two. 2 Elm Wealth/Gemini Observers forecast the combined market valuation of just the four largest and most well-known private companies – SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Stripe – to be in the vicinity of $3 trillion, representing about 5% of total US stock market capitalization. SpaceX alone is rumored to be looking to raise $75 to $125 billion of capital in its IPO, which by itself would be larger than all IPOs in 2025 combined. That this is within the realm of possibility is suggested by the recent $125 billion private capital raise completed by OpenAI. Why the impact on index funds is likely to be small Some observers are warning that “the pending OpenAI and SpaceX IPO wave is an ‘existential risk’ t...
A Petrobras board member appointed by non-controlling shareholders is warning that the state-controlled producer is losing billions from below-market fuel sales and risks reputational damage. Petrobras has accumulated between $2 billion and $3 billion in losses from selling diesel below international prices since the Iran war began, according to estimates from Francisco Petros, who was elected for...
A Petrobras board member appointed by non-controlling shareholders is warning that the state-controlled producer is losing billions from below-market fuel sales and risks reputational damage. Petrobras has accumulated between $2 billion and $3 billion in losses from selling diesel below international prices since the Iran war began, according to estimates from Francisco Petros, who was elected for a fifth term on April 16. Petrobras’s pricing policy calls for the company to shield consumers from short-term volatility. Petros’s stance, while not shared by a majority of the board, reflects concern among investors that Petrobras may again be absorbing losses to hold down fuel costs — a politically sensitive issue in Brazil that has historically weighed on the company’s balance sheet. His views carry weight because he represents a sizable bloc of non-controlling investors and can act as a counterweight to the government’s majority on the board. “Unfortunately, a problem that is structurally economic could be used for political purposes,” Petros said in an interview. Petrobras declined to comment. Petrobras has raised wholesale diesel prices once since the conflict sent them soaring, while wholesale gasoline prices have gone unchanged and are about 30% below international levels, he calculates. Petros, a lawyer and economist, warned Petrobras that postponing adjustments could undermine compliance with its own policy — a key market concern given the company’s history of subsidy-driven debt. “Gasoline has a more direct impact on the government’s popularity. So it seems to me that this restraint may ultimately serve some other interest,” he said. “Demonstrating that this is not the case has to be concrete — which means raising prices.” While Petros doesn’t see the same “strict political interference” in Petrobras’s fuel prices like in the past, he said the company should begin gradually adjusting them to show its independence. The war-fueled energy inflation puts Chief Exec...
laddawan punna/iStock via Getty Images Market Overview The March quarter started off well as January and February were strong opening months for the U.S. equity market. Key drivers of the market were favorable, including: strong economic growth, robust earnings (especially for small caps), the Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle, tax cuts (as the so called Big Beautiful Bill became effective in 2...
laddawan punna/iStock via Getty Images Market Overview The March quarter started off well as January and February were strong opening months for the U.S. equity market. Key drivers of the market were favorable, including: strong economic growth, robust earnings (especially for small caps), the Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle, tax cuts (as the so called Big Beautiful Bill became effective in 2026), expanded deregulation, the ISM PMI Manufacturing index entering expansion territory (above 50), and inflation gradually easing along with long-term interest rates. These positives outweighed negatives such as the stalled labor market and growing concerns about private credit. As a result, through February, equities were up for the year, market breadth expanded and small caps outperformed large caps. Then on February 28th, the US & Israel launched strikes on Iran, initiating the Iran War. This was in response to growing potential threats by the Iranian regime and the recent brutal attacks on its own people. The Iran War The Iran War has dramatically changed the equity market environment for the time being. Equities fell sharply in the month of March as the price of crude oil nearly doubled, interest rates rose, the US dollar rallied, economic uncertainty spiked and investor sentiment plunged. WTI crude oil increased from $65 two days before the war to over $100 by the end of March just over a month later. Other key global crude oil benchmarks, such as, Brent, Oman, and Dubai were even higher. On most individual trading days in March, the price of crude oil was the critical factor. Favorable war headlines caused the price of crude oil to fall and equities to rally in an inverse relationship. However, the opposite was true on most days, where negative war headlines and higher crude prices caused equity multiples to compress. Overall, the fog of war remains thick. As of one week into April, the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The ceasefire is a clear posi...
Toronto-Dominion Bank ( TD ) is exploring the use of a rare kind of significant risk transfer (SRT) to hedge current and future data center exposure as tech companies' investments in artificial intelligence surge. The reference portfolio would start at ~$1B but could then increase the SRT over time through a forward-flow arrangement, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter....
Toronto-Dominion Bank ( TD ) is exploring the use of a rare kind of significant risk transfer (SRT) to hedge current and future data center exposure as tech companies' investments in artificial intelligence surge. The reference portfolio would start at ~$1B but could then increase the SRT over time through a forward-flow arrangement, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The bank would be able to add data center debt it originates over a predetermined period instead of in a one-shot deal. The tentative transaction is still in its early stages, and terms could change significantly in the issuance process, the people told Bloomberg. The rush to build data centers has some investors worried that an AI bubble will eventually pop, casting doubt on whether loans used to finance the expansion will be paid back. Four of the biggest U.S. tech companies plan ~$650B of capital spending this year for new data centers and related infrastructure, the article said. Other banks that are weighing risk transfers to hedge data center financing are Société Générale ( SCGLF ) and Morgan Stanley ( MS ), Bloomberg said. More on Toronto-Dominion Bank The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD:CA) Presents at 24th Annual Financial Services Conference Transcript Toronto-Dominion Bank Is Still Fundamentally Resilient But Almost Fully Priced Toronto Dominion Bank Q1 earnings driven by Canadian P&C, Wholesale Banking fee growth
Corn price action is up 2 to 3 cents in most contracts. Futures closed the Tuesday trade with contracts 1 ½ to 3 cents higher on the session. Preliminary open interest was down 3,986 contracts, mostly rolling out of May, down 28,957. May options expire on Friday. The CmdtyView national...
Corn price action is up 2 to 3 cents in most contracts. Futures closed the Tuesday trade with contracts 1 ½ to 3 cents higher on the session. Preliminary open interest was down 3,986 contracts, mostly rolling out of May, down 28,957. May options expire on Friday. The CmdtyView national...
On The Investor’s Podcast (formerly known as We Study Billionaires), investor Daniel Mahncke made a claim worth stopping on: MercadoLibre has achieved “the longest ever streak of quarters with over 30% year over year revenue growth to 28 consecutive quarters. And at Meli’s size, that’s an insane number. And Meli’s actually the only company ever ... MercadoLibre Just Did What No Company Ever Has: 2...
On The Investor’s Podcast (formerly known as We Study Billionaires), investor Daniel Mahncke made a claim worth stopping on: MercadoLibre has achieved “the longest ever streak of quarters with over 30% year over year revenue growth to 28 consecutive quarters. And at Meli’s size, that’s an insane number. And Meli’s actually the only company ever ... MercadoLibre Just Did What No Company Ever Has: 28 Consecutive Quarters of 30%+ Revenue Growth
Jetlinerimages/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images American Airlines is scheduled to report its Q1 earnings on April 22, before market open, with analysts expecting a 22% rise in the company’s profits. The consensus EPS estimate is -$0.46, while revenue is expected to jump 9% to $13.75B. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 17 downward moves but no upward revisions . Revenue estimates ha...
Jetlinerimages/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images American Airlines is scheduled to report its Q1 earnings on April 22, before market open, with analysts expecting a 22% rise in the company’s profits. The consensus EPS estimate is -$0.46, while revenue is expected to jump 9% to $13.75B. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 17 downward moves but no upward revisions . Revenue estimates have seen 10 upward revisions and 1 downward move. The firm had guided Q1 CASM (excluding fuel, excluding profit sharing, and net special items) to be up between 3% and 5%. For the full year, adjusted earnings per diluted share were projected in the range of $1.70 to $2.70, while capacity for the period is seen rising 3% to 5% year-over-year. However, investors will be keenly looking out for the management’s comments on United Airlines’ ( UAL ) merger bid. The company had earlier denied merger talks, saying it was not interested. Earlier this month, United CEO Scott Kirby discussed with senior government officials a possible merger with American Airlines ( AAL ), as per Bloomberg. American Airlines has shown consistent underperformance and is characterized by high debt and limited strategic flexibility. Analysts are not optimistic about the merger, arguing that despite operational gains, the deal faces complex antitrust issues, unattractive financials, and disproportionate risk, making the combination inadvisable. “Looking at the financial metrics, there can be synergies once combined, but American Airlines brings an extremely high debt load with it. The subpar cash flow and margin performance is likely why United Airlines would be interested in American Airlines in the first place, but it brings a lot of execution risk,” Seeking Alpha analyst Dhierin Bechai said. Over the last 2 years, AAL has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time. The stock has declined by over 23% in the year so far. More on American Airlines United Airlines ...