mbbirdy/iStock via Getty Images With the April 30 special shareholder meeting around the corner, I am revisiting my thesis on ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ( ZIM ). As I'm writing, there is a 30% gross upside to the $35/share cash offer from Hapag-Lloyd ( HPGLY ). Despite the golden share solution, where FIMI would form "New ZIM," take the special state share obligations, and own a carved-...
mbbirdy/iStock via Getty Images With the April 30 special shareholder meeting around the corner, I am revisiting my thesis on ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ( ZIM ). As I'm writing, there is a 30% gross upside to the $35/share cash offer from Hapag-Lloyd ( HPGLY ). Despite the golden share solution, where FIMI would form "New ZIM," take the special state share obligations, and own a carved-out 16 vessel Israeli operator supported by Hapag-Lloyd, the market remains skeptical that the merger will go through. After last week's news that CEO Eli Glickman will retire from the company after serving a 6-month notice period, I have less certainty about the success of the deal. However, I believe that betting on the Hapag-Lloyd acquisition carries meaningful risk. If the deal falls through, one is left with a stock under pressure from the underlying backdrop in freight rates. This is one of the topics I discuss in this piece. Overall, I prefer to remain on the sidelines and reiterate my earlier Hold rating on ZIM, given that I don't see an asymmetric upside in playing the "acquisition roulette." Drewry’s WCI Under Pressure After a Short-Term Rally The main headline in the marine shipping industry is the end of a six-week rally in the World Container Index. Drewry To be clear, this "rally" is dwarfed by the May 2025 spike in the WCI, driven by the demand increase after the tariffs on Chinese imports. In fact, prior to the Middle East conflict, the index had been declining for seven straight weeks. The headline below is a perfect summary of why this decline had happened: Reuters | February 5, 2026 As you may know, since the Gaza ceasefire, the transits through Suez (see chart below) haven't recovered much, which has kept freight rates artificially inflated. Reuters As one would expect, the recent "rally" in the WCI was triggered by the Middle East conflict. There are two items to consider here. The main one was the Hormuz disruption, pushing crude prices higher, essenti...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction T-Mobile US, Inc. ( TMUS ) is one of the strongest U.S. telecommunications operators based on growth and margin metrics. However, to a large degree, this is already priced in, as the stock trades at a significant premium to its peers such as AT&T Inc. ( T ) and Verizon Communications Inc. ( VZ ). Heading into Q1, the consensus is for an EPS...
Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction T-Mobile US, Inc. ( TMUS ) is one of the strongest U.S. telecommunications operators based on growth and margin metrics. However, to a large degree, this is already priced in, as the stock trades at a significant premium to its peers such as AT&T Inc. ( T ) and Verizon Communications Inc. ( VZ ). Heading into Q1, the consensus is for an EPS decline year-over-year, but the company’s guidance may have lowered the hurdle. In any case, the more relevant numbers to watch are things like postpaid accounts, EBITDA margin trends, and guidance for the rest of the year. Why T-Mobile Deserves A Premium When TMUS acquired Sprint, it began to challenge its at-the-time larger competitors in both scope and scale. The acquisition added large 2.5 GHz mid-band spectrum holdings, a significant number of customers for cross-selling, and cost synergies. All this resulted in rapid earnings growth between 2021 and 2025, when synergy started to ramp, from annual non-GAAP EPS of $4.27 to $10.66, more than doubling over that four-year period. Meanwhile, the company is becoming a bigger player in broadband than expected, having raised its long-term ambition to 15 million Fixed Wireless Access customers, fiber to 3-4 million customers, and a total of 18-19 million combined broadband customer base by 2030. This is essentially big enough to become a second earnings engine besides mobile. Home internet tends to be sticky revenue, has lower churn than mobile, and has a lot of bundling potential with mobile plans. Thanks to these factors, plus increasing mobile market share, the company is printing considerably higher growth than its once far larger competitors. 5-year revenue CAGR is at 5.2%, versus T’s -2.5% and Verizon’s 1.5%. On the earnings side, 3-year EBIT CAGR is at an impressive 14.3% versus -2.1% for AT&T and around 1% for Verizon. Premium Business, Premium Valuation TMUS’ valuation looks a bit frothy on earnings-based metrics, esp...
Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. bought $2.54 billion in Bitcoin over the previous seven days, marking the digital asset treasury company’s largest acquisition of the original cryptocurrency since November 2024. The purchases made in the week ended April 19 were primarily funded through the sale of $2.18 billion of STRC, or Stretch, perpetual preferred shares, according to a US Securities and Exchan...
Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. bought $2.54 billion in Bitcoin over the previous seven days, marking the digital asset treasury company’s largest acquisition of the original cryptocurrency since November 2024. The purchases made in the week ended April 19 were primarily funded through the sale of $2.18 billion of STRC, or Stretch, perpetual preferred shares, according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing Monday. The remainder was financed through the sale of common shares. Strategy has benefitted from the three-week long rally in Bitcoin, the longest winning streak for the digital currency since July. The rising cryptocurrency price helps to bolster demand for both the common and preferred shares. The stock rallied almost 30% last week as Bitcoin touched a two-month high. Saylor, who originated the Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, debuted the variable rate preferred issue last year as the company co-founder and chairman sought to diversify funding sources. Strategy has raised tens of billions of dollars from selling common shares over the last several years to buy the digital currency. Strategy owns about $61 billion in Bitcoin. The pivot took place as concern over dilution among common shareholders increased during the plunge in the value of crypto assets since late last year. The company had been able to leverage the premium between its share prices and Bitcoin to raise capital from equity sales without much dilution during crypto bull markets. That premium has evaporated amid the sharp decline in Bitcoin since the token hit a record high in October. While preferred shares are not dilutive like the common shares, they incur hefty dividend payments - 11.5% for the STRC securities - increasing the debt burden of the company. Strategy raised $2.25 billion last year as a cash reserve when Bitcoin saw a sharp slump in part to mitigate the risks of a liquidity crunch. The cryptocurrency was trading around $75,450 on Monday. Bitcoin briefly topped $78,000 ...
winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Summary Following my coverage on Kering ( PPRUF )( PPRUY ), in which I recommended a sell rating as I did not expect any near-term inflection in growth given that all the key brands saw worsening demand trends, Q1 2026 was clearly better than where the business was in mid-2025, and the old "no recovery at all" framing is now too negative. Gucci is still ...
winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Summary Following my coverage on Kering ( PPRUF )( PPRUY ), in which I recommended a sell rating as I did not expect any near-term inflection in growth given that all the key brands saw worsening demand trends, Q1 2026 was clearly better than where the business was in mid-2025, and the old "no recovery at all" framing is now too negative. Gucci is still weak, but the rate of decline has improved meaningfully, while several other parts of the portfolio are growing again. With that said, soft traffic, weak China trends, and a full valuation keep me from turning bullish. 1Q26 earnings review PPRUF Q1 2026 performance was a lot better than in mid-2025, but I would not call it a clean recovery quarter yet. Group revenue came in at EUR3.57 billion, and comparable growth was flat y/y, which is a real improvement from the earlier trend of sharp declines. Regionally, North America was the bright spot, with comparable growth of 9%, while the rest was still weak: Western Europe was down 7%, Japan was down 3%, Asia Pacific ex-Japan was down 4%, and Rest of the World was also down 8%. By segments, Fashion and Leather Goods [F&LG] revenue was EUR2.85 billion, with comparable sales down 3% y/y. That is still weak, but it is much better than before. Gucci remained the main problem, with revenue coming in at EUR1.35 billion and comparable growth of -8%. The regional mix for Gucci follows the same pattern as PPRUF as a whole. North America retail at Gucci was up 8%, but that was offset by Western Europe at -12% and APAC at -14%. Outside Gucci, other F&LG grew 2% organically, and Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, and Brioni all posted y/y growth in the quarter. Jewelry was the strongest part of the group, with revenue of EUR269 million and comparable growth of 22%. Eyewear also improved, with revenue of EUR489 million and comparable growth of 7%. The old bear case has weakened The biggest update since my last write-up is that the ol...