Kevin Warsh, former governor of the US Federal Reserve, during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, April 25, 2025. The International Monetary Fund sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth for this year and next, warning the outlook could deteriorate further as US President Donald Trump's tariffs spark ...
Kevin Warsh, former governor of the US Federal Reserve, during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, April 25, 2025. The International Monetary Fund sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth for this year and next, warning the outlook could deteriorate further as US President Donald Trump's tariffs spark a global trade war. Photographer: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg
pryzmat Gold's ( XAUUSD:CUR ) and silver’s ( XAGUSD:CUR ) recent pullback does not reflect a deterioration in their long-term fundamentals, Samuel Smith of High Yield Investor said on Seeking Alpha ’s Investing Experts podcast. Smith said gold’s near-term underperformance has been driven by factors including reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, temporary pauses in central bank buyin...
pryzmat Gold's ( XAUUSD:CUR ) and silver’s ( XAGUSD:CUR ) recent pullback does not reflect a deterioration in their long-term fundamentals, Samuel Smith of High Yield Investor said on Seeking Alpha ’s Investing Experts podcast. Smith said gold’s near-term underperformance has been driven by factors including reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, temporary pauses in central bank buying, and disruptions to physical trade flows amid geopolitical tensions. He added that gold had already rallied strongly, making a period of consolidation likely, even as underlying drivers such as inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty remain intact. On silver, Smith said the metal lagged gold before rallying sharply, supported by a structural supply shortage and rising demand linked to electrification and artificial intelligence. While both metals have pulled back after strong gains earlier in the year, he said their long-term outlook remains constructive, particularly as geopolitical fragmentation and rising U.S. fiscal deficits weigh on the dollar. He added that these dynamics are likely to be a net negative for the dollar over time, which in turn supports gold prices. Smith said he has been increasing exposure to gold on dips, including through select miners that have become oversold, while also maintaining positions in bullion-linked investments. More broadly, he said investors can gain exposure to precious metals through both ETFs and individual miners, with the latter offering opportunities to capitalize on valuation dislocations. More on gold, silver India Gold Market Update: Mixed Reading Macro Insights: The 'Spoils Of The Iran War' Hidden In The Market Has Gold's Performance Structurally Changed? Record gold prices weigh on India festival jewelry demand Gold rises to one-month high as Strait of Hormuz called 'completely open'
Tesla's solar and energy business is likely to outshine the EV maker's challenged core business when it reports quarterly results this week, a sign of resilience as Tesla progresses slowly in its turn to robots and self-driving technology. CEO Elon Musk's plans to build new assembly lines and produce robots are expected to cost $20 billion this year and drive Tesla to its first quarter of negati...
Tesla's solar and energy business is likely to outshine the EV maker's challenged core business when it reports quarterly results this week, a sign of resilience as Tesla progresses slowly in its turn to robots and self-driving technology. CEO Elon Musk's plans to build new assembly lines and produce robots are expected to cost $20 billion this year and drive Tesla to its first quarter of negative cash flow in two years. Tesla's vehicle profitability has shrunk from its peaks, while high-margin regulatory credits, once a key profit driver, have declined following policy changes in the United States under CEO Elon Musk's ally, President Donald Trump.
Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the Philippines’ credit rating to negative from stable, saying the stall in public investment has created risks to economic growth. The outlook change reflects “rising risks to the Philippines’ strong medium-term growth prospects from recent disruptions to public investment,” Fitch said in a report on Monday. These challenges are “exacerbated in the near-term b...
Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the Philippines’ credit rating to negative from stable, saying the stall in public investment has created risks to economic growth. The outlook change reflects “rising risks to the Philippines’ strong medium-term growth prospects from recent disruptions to public investment,” Fitch said in a report on Monday. These challenges are “exacerbated in the near-term by elevated exposure to the ongoing global energy shock.” Fitch affirmed the Philippines’ long-term foreign currency debt rating at an investment grade BBB. Read more: Inside the $2 Billion Scandal That Paralyzed the Philippines According to Fitch, the issues could narrow the outperformance of Philippine economic growth relative to peers, amid higher post-pandemic government debt and a gradual deterioration in its external finance position. The rating affirmation reflects Fitch’s baseline view that despite rising risks, the nation’s medium-term growth will remain robust, supporting a gradual reduction in government debt. Moody’s Ratings rates the Philippines’ long-term foreign debt at Baa2 with a stable outlook, while S&P Global Ratings has the country at BBB+ with a stable outlook.
AlexSecret/iStock via Getty Images Originally published on April 19, 2026 When the news gets too good in the stock market, it can be as much of a warning sign as an incentive for either equity allocations to float higher in client accounts to take advantage of bullish economic and corporate conditions or trim positions and raise a little cash. Here’s a good post from Ryan Detrick of Carson Group t...
AlexSecret/iStock via Getty Images Originally published on April 19, 2026 When the news gets too good in the stock market, it can be as much of a warning sign as an incentive for either equity allocations to float higher in client accounts to take advantage of bullish economic and corporate conditions or trim positions and raise a little cash. Here’s a good post from Ryan Detrick of Carson Group that shows the S&P 500’s 7% jump in 7 days and then “expected forward returns”. The S&P 500 is back to overbought already, but fundamentals remain pretty solid - as the rest of this blog details (supporting the technical analysis). Each week, this blog updates S&P 500 forward EPS estimates using LSEG data, which allows me to look at revisions to forward estimates and see which sectors might be a safe place to allocate client funds or trim some gains from a particular sector. Usually at this time of the quarter, with Q1 ’26 earnings just starting, S&P 500 EPS watchers are seeing slightly negative or downward revisions to Q2, Q3, and Q4 numbers, as the tendency is to be cautious about the forward quarter’s as current results - in this case Q1 ’26 - reflect that conservatism and show an “upside surprise” to estimates. Particularly with Iran and its headlines, I thought some weakness would occur in the forward estimates, and so far that’s not been the case. Q1 and Q2 ’26 expected S&P 500 EPS growth is still relatively flat with a slight positive bias, but look at Q3 ’26 expected EPS growth revision to +22.4% today, versus the +14.4% on January 2nd, ’26. Tech peaked in late October ’25, but I can’t recall any particular damage to any sector that would have caused downward revisions to any particular sector or sectors in Q3 ’25 that would have resulted in unusually easy compares for the S&P 500. So, what is the market discounting in Q3 ’26, or are these just “bad numbers” from the Street? To try and get some educated estimate of what’s happening, let’s look at expected S&P 500 rev...