Futures fell after Iran fired missiles at Israel, which retaliated despite Trump urging restraint. The SpaceX IPO, Apple's AI push and Oracle earnings are ahead.
Futures fell after Iran fired missiles at Israel, which retaliated despite Trump urging restraint. The SpaceX IPO, Apple's AI push and Oracle earnings are ahead.
asbe/iStock via Getty Images In previous articles, I talked about how trends unwind and the topping process in the S&P 500 ( SPY ). Last Wednesday, I finally stuck my neck out and publicly called a top on the Daily Edge and on X . So far, so good, but it is only one half of a successful call - the next big issue, more important than the top call itself, is where to buy back the shares you sold. Ge...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images In previous articles, I talked about how trends unwind and the topping process in the S&P 500 ( SPY ). Last Wednesday, I finally stuck my neck out and publicly called a top on the Daily Edge and on X . So far, so good, but it is only one half of a successful call - the next big issue, more important than the top call itself, is where to buy back the shares you sold. Get that wrong, and you could be underinvested during the next big rally. This article looks at possible downside targets and where buying opportunities should set up. S&P 500 Monthly The June bar made a new all-time high of 7620 before reversing sharply back inside the May range. This is how reversals typically form on the monthly chart, as highlighted below (the current pattern is similar to January 2022). Obviously, it is still early in the month, and a lot can still happen. Bears want to see a close well into May's range, and ideally near the lows of June. June is one of the weaker months, with an overall tally of 42 gains and 33 losses and an average performance of just +0.2%. Interestingly, in mid-term years, it is the worst month, with an average performance of -2.1%. Assuming June closes with a reversal bar, it could indicate a large drop is due, but it won't provide any clues on downside targets. That depends on the higher timeframe cycle and phase of trend we are currently in. Unfortunately, that has been muddied by the strength of the rally from 6316. Is the rally part of the trend from the 4818 low, or is it a completely new phase of the trend? That will differentiate a 10% drop from a 20% one. I can't answer that reliably with the current information, so it's a case of taking things one step at a time. The first target is the re-test of the monthly channel shown below at 7219ish, which is also the February high. SPX Monthly ( TradingView) The major monthly target of 7490 has now been met. 7490 is where the 2025-2026 rally was equal in size (points) to the 2022-20...
matejmo/iStock via Getty Images The latest manufacturing PMI survey data point to the war in the Middle East having induced a surge in demand for manufactured goods and inputs. That said, a marked intensification of commodity price and supply pressures since the start of the conflict has pushed manufacturing costs higher and placed considerable strain on supply chains. The S&P Global PMI Commodity...
matejmo/iStock via Getty Images The latest manufacturing PMI survey data point to the war in the Middle East having induced a surge in demand for manufactured goods and inputs. That said, a marked intensification of commodity price and supply pressures since the start of the conflict has pushed manufacturing costs higher and placed considerable strain on supply chains. The S&P Global PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators pointed to a potential peaking of price pressures in April, having eased slightly in May, but price inflation remains historically elevated. Reported supply shortages, however, have crept higher in each month since February to now stand at the highest for three-and-a-half years. Output growth strengthens despite supply chain pressures The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, sponsored by J.P. Morgan and compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, recorded the sharpest rise in worldwide factory production since July 2021 in May. The latest upturn built on a similarly strong increase in April. The associated Global PMI TM Commodity Price and Supply Indicators meanwhile signalled another intensification of supply pressures across the global manufacturing sector midway through the second quarter. The PMI Global Supply Shortages Index reached the highest reading since November 2022 and indicated that reported supplier shortfalls were running at nearly two-and-a-half times the normal level. At the same time, the corresponding PMI Price Pressures Index dipped from the near four-year highs seen in March and April but still indicated that reports of higher commodity prices were nearly two-and-a-half times above the usual level. The surge in demand for inventory has exacerbated supply and shipping delays caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, average supplier delivery times have lengthened in April and May to the greatest extents since mid-2022. With demand exceeding supply for many products, prices ha...
Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Chinese president, holds talks with Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 4, 2025. Huang Jingwen | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images Chinese Pr...
Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Chinese president, holds talks with Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 4, 2025. Huang Jingwen | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang is set to start on Monday, as Beijing tests its influence over a neighbor pulled increasingly into Russia's orbit. The two-day trip will be Xi's first to North Korea in nearly seven years and he is expected to hold talks with leader Kim Jong Un. In a commentary published in North Korea's state newspaper ahead of his arrival, Xi pledged "unwavering" friendship and vowed to deepen bilateral cooperation across multiple areas, including the military. "North Korea has more leverage vis-a-vis China compared to June 2019, when Xi last visited Pyongyang," said Rachel Minyoung Lee, senior fellow at the Stimson Center's Korea Program, citing deepened military ties with Moscow, advances in its nuclear program, and an improved economy in recent years. North Korea is expected to use the summit to press for economic concessions, and potentially even for Beijing's tacit recognition of its nuclear status — something Russia is believed to have privately conceded, Lee added. China has publicly opposed Pyongyang's nuclear tests in the past, but its current stance is ambiguous and "the North Koreans seem set on clarifying that during Xi's visit," she said. Kim has sought to forge closer military and trade ties with Moscow, dispatching troops to fight in the Ukraine war while continuing to build up his nuclear capabilities in defiance of UN sanctions. That partnership has given Pyongyang new leverage, analysts said. "Xi wants to counterbalance all of the Russian influence over North Korea as a result of their military cooperation in the war in Europe," sa...